Division of Blair

The Division of Blair is an Australian Electoral Division in Queensland.

Blair
Australian House of Representatives Division
Division of Blair (green) in Queensland, as of the 2019 federal election.
Created1998
MPShayne Neumann
PartyAustralia Labor Party
NamesakeHarold Blair
Electors113,521 (2019)
Area6,472 km2 (2,498.9 sq mi)
DemographicRural

History

The division was created in 1998 and is named after Harold Blair, an Aboriginal singer and civil rights campaigner. The Division is based on Ipswich, and extends from rural and exurban areas west of Brisbane to the Scenic Rim and Lockyer Valley regions.

The founder of One Nation, Pauline Hanson, contested Blair in 1998. Her previous seat, Oxley, had been essentially split in half in the redistribution ahead of the election. Oxley was reconfigured into an exclusively Brisbane-based seat that tilted strongly toward Labor, while most of the rural area near Ipswich shifted to Blair. Although it was a very safe Liberal seat on paper, it contained most of Hanson's base, so it was a natural choice for Hanson to attempt to transfer. The Liberals, Nationals and Labor preferenced each other ahead of Hanson, allowing Liberal challenger Cameron Thompson to win on the eighth count. Thompson overtook the Labor candidate on National preferences, then defeated Hanson on Labor preferences.

Thompson held the seat without serious difficulty in the next two elections, and it was widely considered as a safe Liberal seat. In the 2006 redistribution, the 2004 Liberal margin of 11.2% was almost halved to 5.7%. Conservative-leaning Esk, Nanango and Kingaroy were transferred to Maranoa, while Blair was pushed further into Ipswich and Boonah. Blair had been rated as having received more funding promises from the Howard Government than any other electorate in the country.[1] The redistribution pushed Blair just outside the range of seats Labor needed to win government. In the 2007 election, Thompson was defeated by Labor challenger Shayne Neumann, with a 10.2 percent swing to Labor. Since then, the growth of Ipswich has allowed Neumann to consolidate his hold on the seat. For instance, in 2013, he actually picked up a small swing in his favour even as Labor lost government. In 2016, Neumann made Blair a safe Labor seat with 58.9 percent of the vote.

Members

Image Member Party Term Notes
  Cameron Thompson
(1960–)
Liberal 3 October 1998
24 November 2007
Lost seat
  Shayne Neumann
(1961–)
Labor 24 November 2007
present
Incumbent

Election results

2019 Australian federal election: Blair[2]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labor Shayne Neumann 29,987 31.26 −9.79
Liberal National Robert Shearman 27,844 29.03 −0.58
One Nation Sharon Bell 16,114 16.80 +1.90
Greens Michelle Duncan 8,325 8.68 +1.97
Independent Simone Karandrews 3,849 4.01 +4.01
United Australia Majella Zimpel 3,261 3.40 +3.40
Democratic Labour John Quinn 2,418 2.52 +2.40
Independent John Turner 2,118 2.21 +0.06
Conservative National Peter Fitzpatrick 2,009 2.09 +2.09
Total formal votes 95,925 92.51 −1.92
Informal votes 7,765 7.49 +1.92
Turnout 103,690 91.34 +0.17
Two-party-preferred result
Labor Shayne Neumann 49,123 51.21 −6.93
Liberal National Robert Shearman 46,802 48.79 +6.93
Labor hold Swing−6.93

References

  1. "Australia Votes 2007 - Blair". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 21 December 2007. Retrieved 31 March 2013.
  2. Blair, QLD, Tally Room 2019, Australian Electoral Commission.

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