Electricity sector in Turkey

Each year, about 300 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity is used in Turkey—a fifth of the energy used and about 3 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per person per day. The carbon intensity of generation during the 2010s was slightly over 400 grams of CO2 per kWh (gCO2/kWh). In 2021, there is a lot of excess generation capacity, but only a tiny proportion is exported; consumption is forecast to increase, and there are plans to increase exports during the 2020s.

Electricity sector of Turkey
Data
Installed capacity (2020)95 GW[1]
Production (2020)291.55 terawatt-hours [2]
Share of fossil energy56% generation,[3] 49% capacity [2]
Share of renewable energy44% generation,[3] 51% capacity [2]
GHG emissions from electricity generation (2018)149 Mt CO2eq (power stations including heat)
Average electricity use (2019)256 TWh , 3.1 MWh per capita [4]
Distribution losses (2019)11.8% (including transmission losses) [5]
Consumption by sector
(% of total)
Residential21% (2018)
Industrial117 TWh [4] (2019)
Agriculture7 TWh [4] (2019)
Commercial and public sector28% (2018)
Traction1 TWh [4] (2019)
Services
Sector unbundlingNo
Competitive supply to large usersNo
Competitive supply to residential usersNo
Sources of electricity

As the electricity sector in the country burns a lot of Turkish lignite and local as well as imported hard coal, the largest source of greenhouse-gas emissions is the country's coal-fired power stations, many of which are subsidized. In the 2010s, imports of gas, mostly for its power stations, was one of the main import costs for the economy. Now solar and wind power are the cheapest generating technologies,[6] and are being increased and balanced by the country's existing hydropower, and renewables generate a third of the country's electricity. Academics have suggested that the target of 32% from renewables by 2030 should be increased to at least 50%. Production and use of all types of electric vehicles, including the national car, is expected to increase demand during the 2020s, and Shura Energy Center has made many recommendations about electric vehicles.

History
See also: Railway electrification in Turkey
SantralIstanbul control room
Historic transformer in Bursa

The first power station in the Ottoman Empire was a small hydroelectric power station built in 1902 outside Tarsus, Anatolia.[7] Generating power for tramlines, lighting and the telephone network from 1914, Silahtarağa Power Station in Istanbul (now a museum that is part of SantralIstanbul) was the first large power station.[8][7] By 1923 (the start of the Turkish Republic), one in twenty of the population was supplied with electricity.[8]

The electricity sector was nationalized in the late 1930s and early 1940s, and by the end of nationalization, almost a quarter of the population was supplied with electricity.[9] The Turkish Electricity Authority was created in 1970 and consolidated almost all of the sector.[9] By the end of the 20th century, almost all the population was supplied with electricity.

Privatization of the electricity sector started in 1984[9] and began "in earnest" in 2004[10] after the Electricity Market Law was passed in 2001.[11] There was a one-day national blackout in 2015, and an independent energy exchange was created.[11] In the 2010s, the Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation (TEİAŞ) joined the European Network of Transmission System Operators as an observer,[12] the Turkish grid was permanently synchronised with the European grid, and energy efficiency and generation goals were set for 2023, the centenary of the establishment of modern Turkey.[13]

Consumption
Nostalgic tramway in Istanbul

Each year, approximately 300 TWh of electricity is used in Turkey; this accounts for almost a fifth of the total primary energy consumption[14] and a little under 3 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per person per day.[15] 291 TWh was consumed in 2020.[2] Demand for 2019 peaked at 52 gigawatt electrical (GHe) in August.[16] Average gross consumption per person was 3,700 kWh, much below the 10,000 for other OECD countries in Europe.[17] In 2019, industry consumed 117 TWh, buildings 119, agriculture 7 and transport 1.[4]

In the five years from 2019, Turkey plans to invest US$11 billion in energy efficiency.[18] A target of replacing 80% of its current electricity meters with smart meters by 2035 has also been set.[19] The first virtual power plant was created in 2017 with wind, solar and hydro; geothermal was added in 2020.[20]

Electricity's share of energy is expected to increase, perhaps from 22% in 2020 to 28% in 2040.[21] Vulnerable families are supported with direct payments for their electricity consumption up to 0.15 MWh/month.[22]

Environment Ministry regulations issued in 2018 require at least one charger per 50 new parking spaces in shopping malls and public parking lots.[23] Although the share of electricity in total energy consumption will replace some oil,[24] production by electric-vehicle companies, such as electric-bus manufacturing[25] and TOGG cars, may not be enough to avoid the economic risk of bills on oil import being high in the mid-2020s.[26]

The carbon intensity of generation during the 2010s was slightly over 400 gCO2/kWh,[27] around the global average.[28] In 2021, there is a lot of excess generation capacity;[29] but from 2017 through 2019 less than 1% was exported.[30] Consumption is forecast to increase,[31] and there are plans to increase exports during the 2020s.[32]

A group of four academics has suggested that the target of 32% from renewables by 2030 should be increased to at least 50%.[33] Production and use of all types of electric vehicles, including the TOGG car, is expected to increase demand during the 2020s, and the Shura Energy Transition Center, a think tank, has made many recommendations about electric vehicles.[34]

Demand forecasts

Demand forecasting is important: constructing too much electricity-generation capacity can be expensive, both for the government because of energy subsidies and for the private sector because of debt interest. Conversely, constructing too little risks delaying the health benefits of electrification, mainly cleaner air due to fossil fuel phase-out.[35]

In October 2018, the government forecast an electricity demand of 317 TWh for 2019.[36] 2018 demand was 303 TWh (from an installed capacity of 89GW),[37] an increase of less than 1% compared 2017.[38] This means that the forecast 2019 electricity demand of 317 TWh would be a 5% increase, with the economy thereby predicted for a recession. Some official demand forecasts have been overestimates[15][39][40] due to miscalculations of economic growth.[41]

One 2018 academic forecast was that, by 2021, demand would be between 322 and 345 TWh.[42] As of April 2019, the Energy Ministry was predicting demand of 357 TWh by 2023.[43] The ministry forecast for 2030 demand was 500 TWh as of 2019;[44] another forecast predicts between 440 and 550 TWh.[45] As of 2019, however, there is about one-third[46] surplus generating capacity.[47] Firm capacity was almost 400 TWh in 2019, with actual generation being 76% of firm capacity.[48]

Generation
Further information: List of power stations in Turkey, List of active coal-fired power stations in Turkey, and Renewable energy in Turkey
Greenway Solar power tower in Mersin

Of the total 308.5 TWh of electricity generated in 2019, coal's share was 114.6 TWh (37% of electricity generated); hydropower 89.2 (29%); natural gas 58.1 (19%); and wind, solar and geothermal 45.3 (15%).[3] Due to changes in rainfall, hydroelectricity in Turkey varies considerably from year to year.[lower-alpha 1] Installed capacity was 90 GW in 2019[50] (of which 14 GW was wind and solar),[51] and is expected to reach 100 GW by the end of 2021.[52] In 2020, the Energy Minister stated that 74 tenders (by descending clock auction[53]) would be held in the coming months for solar energy in Turkey in the 10–20 MW range.[54] The state-owned Electricity Generation Company (EÜAŞ) has about 20% of the market,[55] and there are many private companies,[56] with solar capacity projected for 13 GW and wind capacity for 16 GW by 2027.[51] Nuclear power, both proposed under construction, is targeted for 10% of generation,[51] but has been criticised as very expensive to taxpayers.[29] It is difficult to burn low-calorie coal economically in very small (industrial) power plants.[57] For comparison Germany is closing lignite-fired plants under 150 MW.[58] Peak daily generation in 2020 was over 1 TWh in September.[2]

Trade

In 2019, about 150 TWh[lower-alpha 2] was traded on the day ahead spot market at an average rate of 260 lira (c. $46 in 2019) for each MWh.[59] Market pricing is not completely transparent, cost reflective and non-discriminatory.[60] In 2020, Turkey exported 2.48 billion TWh and imported 1.89 TWh.[2] International trade with some countries is hampered by geopolitical difficulties such as the Cyprus dispute; for example, Turkey will be bypassed by the EuroAsia Interconnector.[61] Some power barges supplying other countries burn heavy fuel oil but plan to convert to LNG.[62]

Transmission

The transmission system operator is the Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation (TEİAŞ).[63] According to a 2018 study by Sabancı University, 20% of Turkey's electricity could be generated from wind and solar by 2026 with no extra transmission costs, and 30% with a minor increase in grid investment.[64] Mobile 10 MW batteries may be useful in the future for reducing temporary transmission congestion between regions, or larger ones for frequency regulation.[65] As of 2020, reducing grid losses and outages is important as is improving grid quality.[66] Power consumption is often distant from generation: grid improvements are needed to prevent bottlenecks and increase flexibility.[67] As of 2020 links with the EU allow 500 MW export and 650 MW import, whereas trade with other countries is possible but difficult to automate as they do not meet ENTSO-E synchronisation requirements.[30]

Distribution

Electric power distribution is done by Türkiye Elektrik Dağıtım, 21 regional monopolies, and many industrial areas.[68][69] According to the Chamber of Electrical Engineers, these regional monopolies were making excess profits in 2020.[70][71] According to academics at the Shura Energy Center, increasing Turkey's proportion of electric cars in use to 10% by 2030 would smooth distribution, amongst many other benefits.[72] Households that consumed over 1400 kWh in 2020 and all non-household customers can switch suppliers.[73] There are plans for a smart grid.[74]

European wiring color codes are used.[75] Schuko plugs and sockets are the standard, at 220 V and 50 Hz.[76] For public charging of electric vehicles the European standard Combined Charging System is used but there are also some CHAdeMO chargers.[77] As of 2021, there are no Tesla superchargers.[78]

Health, safety and resilience

As of 2020, coal power is a major cause of air pollution in Turkey: it was earlier estimated to cause over 2,000 early deaths each year.[15] In 2020, the Energy Ministry said they plan to increase the installed capacity of coal power plants from 11 GW to 20 GW.[79]

In case of emergencies, distribution grids can be remotely controlled by SCADA.[80] Although the nationwide blackout in 2015 was not caused by a natural disaster, the installation of more local solar power with batteries and microgrids in vulnerable places might help vital buildings such as hospitals retain power after the next earthquake in Turkey. Academics suggest that cost–benefit analysis of such systems should take into account any benefits of resilience and also the cost of installing an islandable system.[81][82]

Greenhouse-gas emissions

Turkey's coal-fired power stations (of which many are subsidized) are the largest source of greenhouse-gas emissions by Turkey.[83] Production of public heat and electricity emitted 149 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2018,[84] mainly through coal burning.[lower-alpha 3] Almost all coal burnt in power stations is local lignite or imported hard coal. Coal analysis of Turkish lignite compared to other lignites indicates that it is high in ash and moisture, low in energy value and high in emission intensity (i.e., Turkish lignite emits more CO2 than other countries' lignites per unit of energy when burnt).[86] Although imported hard coal has a lower emission intensity when burnt, the life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions account for transportation, and are therefore similar.[87]

With its nuclear power station not yet completed, and despite the potential for expanded renewable energy in Turkey (which, except for geothermal, emits little CO2eq), the country averages a grid emission intensity of over 460 gCO2eq/kWh (over 125 t/TJ,[88] similar to that of natural gas). A trial of reinjecting geothermal gas back into the ground is planned for 2021.[89]

Policy and regulation
See also: Energy in Turkey § Policy

The three main objectives are localisation, a predictable market and a security of supply.[14] The government aims for half of electricity to be from renewable energy by 2023,[90] with capacity targets of 32 GW for hydropower; 12 GW for wind; 10 GW for solar; and 3 GW for biomass and geothermal combined.[14] The authors of a report from Shura Energy Transition Center at Sabancı University have suggested that longer-term plans and targets would also be useful, together with a policy on distributed generation;[91] market design to incentivize grid flexibility was also suggested.[91] The objectives are developing local manufacturing capacity such as wind turbines,[92] technology transfer and creating a competitive domestic market for low-cost renewable energy.[93] For wind and solar tenders, there is a high domestic content requirement, and imported solar modules are taxed. A solar PV factory was opened in 2020.[94] Developing regulation to specify the role of aggregators in providing flexibility and including energy storage systems and demand side management within ancillary services has been suggested.[95]

Coal is heavily subsidized in Turkey. The current dollar-based feed-in tariff system for renewables expires in June 2021, after which it will be replaced by lira-based payments.

Mosque in Old Halfeti partially submerged by the Birecik Dam on the River Euphrates

Economics and finance
See also: Coal in Turkey § Subsidies

As elsewhere, new renewables are auctioned.[96] As of 2018, if all currently economic renewable projects were developed, the added electricity generation would be sufficient to reduce Turkey's natural gas imports by 20%,[97][98] and every GW of solar power installed would save over $100 million on the gas bill.[99] Total import dependency in the power sector was over 50% in 2019.[15] In 2019 the value-adjusted levelized cost of energy (VALCOE is the cost including power system value but before including environmental externalities) of onshore wind was slightly less than solar PV,[100] but solar PV is expected to become the most cost-competitive power generation technolgy by the late 2020s.[101]

The wholesale market is operated by Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST);[102] wholesale prices are controlled by EUAŞ, the state electricity generation company.[103] In January 2019, EDPK published estimates of power plant financing.[104]

There are no excise duties,[105] and the complicated system[106] of prices to end consumers is regulated by the government.[107] In 2020, residential consumers paid about 75 lira (c. 13 USD in 2019) per 100 kWh, of which 39 lira (c. $7 in 2019) went to generating companies and 21 lira (c. $4 in 2019) to distribution companies; the rest was tax.[70] A green tariff to allow consumers to buy only sustainable electricity is planned for June 2021.[108]

As of 2019, about 15% of power was generated by the public sector.[46] During the 2010s, power companies borrowed heavily in dollars, but economic growth was overestimated and they overbuilt generating capacity.[46] This resulted in bank debts of $34 billion by September 2019 and revenues declining in dollar terms due to the fall in the lira; furthermore, 7% of debts were non-performing.[90][109][46] In 2020, Turkish companies in general still owe much foreign currency,[110] and debt may be restructured and plants change ownership.[111]

About half the electricity used in 2019 was generated from local resources.[112] Because TEIAŞ is not unbundled, it cannot become a full member of the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E), but the grids are synchronised, there is technical co-operation, and as of 2020, it remains an observer member.[113] The grid is linked across most land borders, and about 1% of electricity is imported or exported.[114] More export to the electricity sector in Iraq is planned for the 2020s,[32] and technical studies have been done on increasing connections with the European grid.[115] It has, for example, been predicted that more trade would benefit electricity in Bulgaria by stabilizing its price.[116] There are restrictions on foreign ownership.[117]

The main growth in solar and wind during the 2020s is predicted to be in Renewable Energy Resource Areas(YEKA): these use auctions and include a requirement to manufacture mostly in Turkey.[118] Build Own Operate is being used to construct Akkuyu nuclear plant to ensure that responsibility for cost overruns is with Rosatom.[118] Power purchase agreements are offered by the government both for nuclear and local coal.[119]

Feed-in-tariffs

As of March 2021 for projects starting generating in July feed-in-tariffs in lira per MWh are: wind and solar 320, hydro 400, geothermal 540, and various rates for different types of biomass: for all these there is also a bonus of 80 per MWh if local components are used.[46] Tariffs will apply for 10 years and the local bonus for 5 years.[46] Rates are determined by the presidency,[120] and the scheme replaces the previous USD-denominated feed-in-tariffs for renewable energy.[121]

Future
Driverless vehicle concept in Istanbul

Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant is planned to start generation in 2023, and is expected to last for at least 60 years.[122] In April 2019, Shanghai Electric Power (a subsidiary of China's State Power Investment Corporation) signed a Belt and Road Initiative deal to build the Emba Hunutlu coal-fired power station power station,[123] which would burn coal imported to Adana Province through Iskenderun Bay.[124] The project finance includes a 15-year $1.38‑billion loan from the China Development Bank, the Bank of China and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.[123] However, the project is being opposed by several environmental organizations.[125] As of 2020, there is an oversupply of generating capacity, and the drop in demand may create financial problems for power plant operators.[126] More efficient lighting and industrial motors together with policy changes supporting efficiency could limit demand growth.[127] Converting existing dams to pumped storage has been suggested as more feasible than new pumped storage.[128] Analyst Ramez Naam forecast in 2020 that, for medium-cost locations (Turkey is medium cost as sunshine is medium between Europe and the Middle East), new solar will be cheaper than the currently operating fossil-fuel plants by 2030.[129] Despite increasing droughts hydropower is predicted to remain important for load balancing.[130] Shura Energy Center suggested in 2020 that future pricing should be more competitive and better reflect costs, with low-income families being continued to be supported with direct payments.[21]

Notes
  1. For example, drought in 2020 caused a generation drop of over 10% compared to the previous year.[49]
  2. This is around half of the 300 TWh of electricity generated in 2019.
  3. The 2018 carbon content (t/TJ), oxidation factor and CO2 emission intensity (t/TJ NCV), respectively, of the main fossil fuels burnt in Turkish power stations were:[85] These figures are unremarkable except for the extremely low-quality lignite, which is explained in detail in Coal in Turkey. The CO2 emission intensity (or emission factor) shown above is the mass of CO2 emitted for each unit of heat produced by burning a fuel. In contrast, the grid emission intesnity is the mass of CO2eq produced per unit of electricity supplied to the electrical grid. Because thermal power stations generally convert less than half of the heat energy into electrical energy, their numbers for grid emission intensity are much greater than those shown above.

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Further reading
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