Energy in Turkey

Consumption of energy in Turkey is around the world average of about seventy gigajoules (GJ) per person per year.[2][3] In total, Turkey uses about six billion GJ of primary energy per year:[3][4] over 80% from fossil fuels.[5] Energy policy includes reducing fossil fuel imports, which accounted for over 20% of the cost of Turkey's imports in 2019,[6] and 75% of the current account deficit.[7] From 1990 to 2017 annual primary energy supply tripled, but then remained constant to 2019.[3] In 2019 it included almost 30% oil, 30% coal, and about 25% gas.[8]

Primary energy supply in Turkey[1]
Economy of Turkey
Economic history of Turkey
Money
Stock exchange
Major projects
Related topics
 Turkey portal
SOCAR Star Aegean refinery, İzmir: Almost all oil is imported

Turkey produces its own lignite (brown coal) but imports three-quarters of its energy, including half the coal and almost all the oil and gas it requires. Turkey's energy policy prioritises reducing imports, but the OECD has criticised the lack of carbon pricing,[9] subsidising fossil fuels[10] and not taking more advantage of the country's abundant wind and sunshine.[11] Road transport consumes the most oil products. The country's electricity is generated mainly from coal, gas and hydro; with a small but growing amount from wind, solar and geothermal.[12] A nuclear power plant is under construction. From 1990 to 2019, carbon dioxide (CO
2) emissions from fuel combustion rose from 130 megatonnes (Mt) to 360 Mt.[13] Turkey's gross greenhouse gas emissions are about six tons per person per year,[14] which is more than the global average.[15]

Energy policy is to secure national energy supply[16] and reduce fossil fuel imports,[17] which accounted for over 20% of the cost of Turkey's imports in 2019,[6] and 75% of the current account deficit.[7] This also includes using energy efficiently. However, as of 2019, little research has been done on the policies Turkey uses to reduce energy poverty, which also include some subsidies for home heating and electricity use.[18] Turkey's energy strategy includes "within the context of sustainable development, giving due consideration to environmental concerns all along the energy chain".[17] Its plan has been criticised for being published over a year after work mention in it had started,[19] for not looking much beyond 2023,[20] not sufficiently involving the private sector,[21] and for being inconsistent with Turkey's climate policy.[22]

Policy and regulation
See also: Electricity sector in Turkey § Policy and regulation

The regulator is the Energy Market Regulatory Authority Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Enerji Piyasası Düzenleme Kurumu (in Turkish).

Security of supply
See also: Economy of Turkey § Energy security
More renewable energy would reduce fossil fuel imports to Turkey

Turkey meets a quarter of its energy demand from national resources.[23] In 2019, the country was almost 40% fossil fuel energy dependent on Russia;[24] it imports 99% of its natural gas and 93% of the petroleum it uses.[25] In the 2010s, fossil fuel imports were probably the largest structural vulnerability of the country's economy:[26] they cost $41 billion in 2019 representing about a fifth of Turkey's total import bill,[27] and were a large part of the 2018 current account deficit[28] and the country's debt problems.

To secure energy supply, the government built new gas pipelines,[26] and diversified energy sources. For example, gas supplies from Azerbaijan were expected to compete strongly with those from Russia in 2020.[29] As of 2020, there is a surplus of electricity generation capacity,[30] however the government aims at meeting the forecast increase in demand for electricity in Turkey by building its first nuclear power plant and more solar, wind, hydro and coal-fired power plants.[31] As an oil and gas importer, Turkey can increase security of supply by increasing the proportion of renewable electricity it produces.[23] The International Energy Agency has suggested Turkey implement a carbon market.[32] In the long term, a carbon tax would reduce import dependency by speeding development of national solar and wind energy.[33]

Because the Turkish government is very centralised, energy policy is a national policy. However, at certain times of the year the east of the country generates excess electricity as it has the most hydroelectricity in Turkey, but far less industry and population than the west. This was part of the cause of the nationwide blackout in 2015, therefore, policy includes improving electricity transmission.[34] As well as natural gas storage and regasification plants to convert liquid natural gas to natural gas,[35] the government supports pumped-storage hydroelectricity to run water through turbines.[36]

Energy efficiency
Karabuk Solar Energy Farm

The National Energy Efficiency plan aims to decrease Turkey's energy intensity—the energy required to produce ₺1 (Turkish lira) of GDP—to the OECD average by 2023.[37] Despite the Energy Efficiency Law and a target to reduce its energy intensity by at least 20% between 2011 and 2023; between 2005 and 2015 Turkey's energy intensity increased by seven percent.[32] According to one study if energy policy was changed—most importantly the removal of fossil fuel subsidies—at least 20% of energy costs could be saved in 2020 by improved efficiencies.[38] According to the Chamber of Mechanical Engineers, there is potential for 50% energy savings in buildings.[6] In 2019, Energy Minister Fatih Dönmez said that improvement of the energy efficiency of public buildings should take the lead and that efficiency improvements are an important source of jobs.[39]

Fossil fuel subsidies and taxes

In the 21st century, Turkey's fossil fuel subsidies are around 0.2% of GDP,[40] including US$1.6 billion annually between 2015 and 2017.[41] The energy minister Fatih Dönmez supports coal[42][43] and most energy subsidies are for coal,[44] which the OECD has strongly criticised.[45] Capacity mechanism payments to coal-fired power stations in Turkey in 2019 totalled 720 million Turkish lira and 542 million lira to gas-fired power stations in Turkey.[46] As of 2018, the tax per unit energy on gasoline was higher than diesel,[47] despite diesel cars on average emitting more lung damaging NOx (nitrogen oxide).[48] The government sets the price of residential gas and electricity.[49]

Future of the natural gas oligopoly

Electricity producers claim the purpose of the capacity market is to secure supply: however, despite almost all natural gas being imported, some gas-fired power plants received capacity payments in 2019, whereas some non-fossil power firms such as demand response utilities did not.[50] State-owned BOTAŞ controls 80% of the natural gas market and thus the price,[51] but according to researcher Gulmira Rzayeva to benefit from a gas price similar to the European hub price the government will have to liberalise the gas market fully by the end of the 2020s.[52] Due to the many sources of supply in the region, and increasing liquefied natural gas imports[53][54] analysts forecast wholesale prices in USD will remain stable or decrease in the long-term.[55][56] In April 2020, the cost of every 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas imported from Russia was US$228 whereas LNG was less than half that price.[57] However, the wholesale gas market is not as competitive in Turkey as it is in the EU, as Turkey does not want to split up BOTAŞ or give other power companies there fair use of BOTAŞ' pipelines. Because of this, Turkey has not joined ENTSO-G (European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas),[32] which is working to improve cross-border trade for gas on the European internal market, and to develop the European natural gas transmission network.[58]Turkey's long-term contracts with its current suppliers—Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran—are due to expire in the 2020s.[26] Exploration for gas in the Eastern Mediterranean is subsidised[59][44] and is a cause of geopolitical tensionbecause of the Cyprus dispute.[60]

Coal subsidies

Coal in Turkey is heavily subsidized.[61] As of 2019, the government aims to keep the share of coal in the energy portfolio at around the same level in the medium to long term.[62] The coal's place in the government's energy policy was detailed in 2019 by the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA), Turkey's lobbying organisation.[63] Despite protests against coal power plants[64] Afşin-Elibistan C is being constructed by Turkey's state-owned generator and Emba Hunutlu with Chinese financial support.[65] Even in cities where natural gas is available, punctuation the government supports poor households with free coal.[7]

Import substitution

In 2017, renewables generated a tenth of Turkey's electricity, which reduced gas import costs. However, being mainly hydroelectricity, the amount that can be produced, and this percentage, is vulnerable to drought. According to Hülya Saygılı, an economist at Turkey's central bank, although imports of solar and wind power components accounted for 12% of import costs in 2017, in EU countries this is largely due to one-time setup costs. She said that compared with Italy and Greece, Turkey has not invested enough in solar and wind power.[66]

Potential employment co-benefits of a climate change policy

Increasing the share of renewable energy could make the country more energy independent and increase employment[67] especially in Turkey's solar PV and solar heating industries.[68]

Politics

Without subsidies, new and some existing coal power would be unprofitable, and it is claimed that path dependence or past decisions, political influence, and distorted markets is why they continue.[69] Although the coal industry and the government are said to have a close relationship, the 2018 economic downturn and the falling cost of wind and solar may increase pressure against maintaining coal subsidies.[70] Future imports of gas from northern Iraq may depend on relationships with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), the central government of Iraq and Rosneft.[71] Hydroelectric plants, especially new ones, are sometimes controversial in local, international and environmental politics.[72] The EU might persuade Turkey to cooperate on climate change by supporting policies that reduce the country's external energy dependency in a sustainable manner.[32]

State energy companies include: Eti Mine, Turkish Coal Enterprises, Turkish Hard Coal Enterprises, the Electricity Generation Company, BOTAŞ and TEİAŞ —the electricity trading and transmission company.[73] The government holds a quarter of total installed electricity supply and often offers prices below market levels.[74]

Energy transition
See also: Nuclear energy in Turkey and Renewable energy in Turkey

For three decades from 1990, carbon intensity remained almost constant around 61 tCO2/TJ (tons of carbon dioxide per terrajoule).[3] Nuclear safety regulations and human resources could be improved[75] by cooperation with Euratom ( European Atomic Energy Community).[32] In 2018, a new regulator was set up and $0.15 per kWh of generated electricity will be set aside for waste management.[76]

A plan for solar power in Turkey beyond 2023 is needed[77] and amending regulations on rooftop solar panels has been suggested to simplify installation on existing buildings and to mandate them for new buildings.[78]

In an attempt to reduce fossil fuel imports the government supports local production of electric cars and the establishment of solar cell factories.[79]

Health and the environment
Main articles: Air pollution in Turkey, Greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey, and Climate change in Turkey

Retrofitting equipment for pollution control such as flue-gas desulfurization at old lignite-fuelled plants such as Soma power station,[80] might not be financially possible, as they use outdated technology.[81] The government collects data on Sulfur dioxide (SO2), NOx and particulate air pollution from each large plant,[82] but it is not published.

The energy policy aim of reducing imports (e.g. of gas) conflicts with the climate change policy aim of reducing the emission of greenhouse gases as some local resources (e.g. lignite) emit a lot of CO
2. According to Ümit Şahin, who teaches climate change at Sabancı University, Turkey must abandon fossil fuel completely and switch to 100% renewable energy by 2050.[83]

Economics
See also: Electricity sector in Turkey § Economics and finance
Renewable energy increases employment in Turkey[84]

Turkey's energy bill was $41 billion USD in 2019.[85] As of 2018, for residential consumers, "high cost is the most important problem of Turkey's energy system".[86] Europe supports energy efficiency and renewable energy via the €1 billion (euro) through Turkey's Mid-size Sustainable Energy Financing Facility (MidSEFF) to finance investments in these areas.[32][87] Up to 150kWh per month of free electricity is provided to two million poor families.[88] Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency said in 2019 that, because of its falling price, the focus should be on maximizing onshore wind power in Turkey.[89] The economics of coal power has been modelled[90] by Carbon Tracker, and they calculate that by 2020, both new wind and solar power would be cheaper than building new coal power plants; they forecast that wind will become cheaper than existing coal plants in 2027, and solar in 2023.[91] Most energy deals in 2019 were for renewables, and over half the investment in these was from outside the country.[92] During the early 2020s the wholesale price of natural gas is forecast to fall close to the European hub price.[52]

Energy sources

Coal
See also: Coal in Turkey

Coal supplies over a quarter of Turkey's primary energy.[93] Every year, thousands of people die prematurely from coal-related causes, the most common of which is local air pollution.

Most coal mined in Turkey is lignite (brown coal), which is more polluting than other types of coal.[94] Turkey's energy policy encourages mining lignite for coal-fired power stations to reduce gas imports;[95] and coal supplies over 40% of domestic energy production.[96] Mining peaked in 2018, at over 100 million tonnes,[97] and declined considerably in 2019.[7] In contrast to local lignite production, Turkey imports almost all of the bituminous coal it uses. The largest coalfield in Turkey is Elbistan.[98]

Gas
Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline inauguration at the Turkish city of Eskişehir, 12 June 2018

Annual gas demand is about 50 Bcm (billion cubic meters),[99] over 30% of Turkey's total energy demand. Russia supplied a third of this amount in 2019.[26][100] As of 2019, storage capacity was 3.44 Bcm and daily transmission capacity 318 Mcm.[101] Over 80% of the population,[52] and all provinces in Turkey, are served with natural gas,[102] which supplies most of the country's heating requirements.[103] In 2019, households bought the most gas, followed by industry then power generation facilities.[52] All industrial and commercial consumers and households buying over 75 thousand cubic-meters a year can switch suppliers.[7]

Gas from Russia comes via the Blue Stream and TurkStream pipelines; the other Russian pipeline through Ukraine is expected to stop supplying Turkey soon. Iran, the second biggest supplier, is connected via the Tabriz–Ankara pipeline.[104] Azerbaijan supplies Turkey through the South Caucasus Pipeline (which they claimed in 2018 was the cheapest that Turkey buys).[105]) Its gas flows onward through the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline supplying Turkey and some continues across the Greek border into the Trans Adriatic Pipeline. Iraq may also supply gas in future through the Southern Gas Corridor;[106] gas from the Eastern Mediterranean is also a possibility.[26]

About a quarter of the country's gas is imported as LNG.[107] Because it can be stored, it is important for meeting the peak winter demand.[26] Stored LNG was 7.5% of annual demand in 2018 but is increasing. A spot exchange was started in 2018.[7]

As of 2019, only a small proportion of gas imports are re-exported to the EU. However Turkey aims to become a gas trading hub[108] and re-export more.[99] 91 Mt of CO2 were emitted by burning natural gas in 2015,[109] however, subsidies to gas-fired power stations are being reduced in 2019 and 2020, so older, less efficient plants may reduce their power generation.[110]

In mid-2020 pipeline gas from Russia was estimated to cost about $6 per million British Thermal Units (BTU), whereas LNG was half that price.[111] Long-term contracts with Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan will expire in the 2020s allowing Turkey to negotiate lower prices.[112] Private companies are not allowed to enter into new pipeline gas contracts with countries that have contracts with state owned BOTAŞ.[7] Although private companies can contract for LNG[7] they cannot buy at the same price as BOTAŞ.[111] As it has 80% of the market,[113] BOTAŞ can and does subsidize residential and industrial customers.[7]

State-owned gas-fired power plants are less efficient than private sector ones but can outcompete them because the state guarantees a price for their electricity.[7] Some distribution companies are testing mixing up to 20% hydrogen with natural gas. Their aim is that by the end of 2021 six percent of the gas distributed will be green hydrogen.[114]

In August 2020, Turkey discovered a 320 Bcm natural gas reserve under the Black Sea and hopes to begin production by 2023. The Turkish drilling ship Fatih, had been carrying out exploration operations in the Tuna-1 sector in the western Black Sea. The sector is near where Romania has also found gas reserves.[115] According to some commentators, with this discovery, the Aegean dispute with Greece over exploratory drilling is now unnecessary.[116]

The contract to import from Iran expires in 2026 and, according to one Iranian energy analyst, although the two countries both wish to increase trade generally, Iran will need to offer more incentives when it comes to renew the contract.[117]

Oil

In the 2010s, oil demand grew from 700 KB/D (thousand barrels per day) to one MB/D (million barrels per day), mainly due to increased demand for diesel.[118] Demand is forecast to increase slowly to 2040.[119] Almost all oil is imported: mostly from Iraq, Russia and Kazakhstan[120][121] and oil also transits from Azerbaijan.[122] As over half of the imported oil and oil products are used for road transport,[123] it is hoped that electrifying land transport will reduce the import bill. Electric buses[124] and hybrid cars are manufactured locally,[125] and Turkey's automotive industry plans to produce a homegrown electric car beginning in 2022.[126]

The Petroleum Market Law provides incentives for investors to explore and produce.[127] As well as crude oil, the country imports oil products, diesel, LPG and petcoke (to make cement), and as of 2020, the energy import bill closely tracks the price of crude oil.[128] It has been suggested that taxes on diesel and petrol should be brought closer in line with each other to minimise imports. [129] TPAO, the state owned exploration and production company, increased offshore exploration in 2020.[130] Turkey is the world's largest user of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for road transport. [131] Shale oil may be extractable from Dadaş.[132]

Nuclear
See also: Nuclear energy in Turkey

Turkey has no nuclear power plants but is building the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, which is expected to come online in 2023. The nuclear power debate has a long history, with the 2018 construction start in Mersin Province being the sixth major attempt to build a nuclear power plant since 1960.[133]

Plans for the Sinop Nuclear Power Plant and another at İğneada have stalled.[134]

Renewable energy
Solar panels on an İzmir train station roof: the country has the potential to get a large part of its energy from the sun.
Çanta Wind Farm in Turkey
See also: Renewable energy in Turkey

Although there are plenty of renewable resources for energy in Turkey,[135] only hydropower has been developed to any degree, supplying an average of about a fifth of Turkey's national electricity supply.[77] However, because this is vulnerable to droughts, hydro has supplied less electricity than usual in recent years,[136] compared to around a third in a wet year.[137] The country is aiming for two-thirds of its electricity supply to be from renewables by 2023,[138] although Turkey has invested less in solar and wind power than similar Mediterranean countries.[136] Turkey needs a renewable energy plan beyond 2023, which includes transport, industry, heating and cooling as well as electricity generation.[77] Turkey is a net exporter of wind power equipment, but a net importer of solar power equipment.[139]


Hydroelectricity in Turkey is the largest renewable source of electricity other renewables supplied 12%.[140]

Heating is the main use for Geothermal power in Turkey. By increasing massively its production of solar power in the south and wind power in the west, the country's entire energy demand could be met from renewable sources.[141] The government plans a green tariff for June 2021.[142]

Consumption

Consumption of energy in Turkey is around the world average of about seventy gigajoules (GJ) per person per year.[143][3] In total Turkey uses about six billion GJ of primary energy per year—[3][4] over 80% from fossil fuels.[5]As of 2020, more than 25% of energy is used in buildings, of which over 80% is for heating.[144]

Electricity
See also: Electricity sector in Turkey
Sources of electricity

Each year about 300 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity is used in Turkey, which is almost a fifth of the amount of primary energy in Turkey, and a little under three kilowatt-hours (kWh) per person per day.[145] The carbon intensity of generation during the 2010s was slightly over 400 gCO2/kWh.[146] In 2021 there is a lot of excess generation capacity but only enough transmission lines to export one percent of the total. Consumption is forecast to increase and there are plans to increase exports during the 2020s.

The country's coal-fired power stations, many of which are subsidised, burn a lot of Turkish lignite and imported hard coal and are the largest greenhouse gas emitters in Turkey. Imports of gas, mostly for power stations in Turkey, is a major import cost for the economy of Turkey. However, solar and wind power in Turkey is growing and with the country's existing hydropower, renewables generate a third of the country's electricity.

In the 2010s imports of gas, mostly for power stations in Turkey, was one of the main import costs for the economy of Turkey. Academics have suggested that the target of 23% from renewables by 2030 should be increased to at least 50%. Production and use of all types of electric vehicles, including the national car, are expected to increase demand during the 2020s.

Conservation storage and transmission

According to the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Turkey has the potential to cut 15% to 20% of total consumption through energy conservation.[147]

With the increase in electricity generated by solar panels storage may become more important. A pumped hydropower plant is planned to be completed by 2022.[148] Testing in Ankara suggested a payback time between eighteen months and three years for adding ice thermal storage to hypermarket cooling systems.[149] Turkey could generate 20% of its total electricity from wind and solar by 2026 without extra transmission system costs.[150]

History and projections for the future
See also: Coal in Turkey § History, and 2023_vision § Energy

During the late 20th and early 21st centuries the country was very exposed to oil and gas price volatility.[151] However, around the turn of the century many gas fired power plants were built, and BOTAŞ extended the national gas pipeline network to most of the urban population.[152] As Turkey has almost no natural gas of its own this increased import dependency, particularly on Russian gas.[153] Therefore, many more regasification plants and gas storage (such as the gas storage at Lake Tuz) were built in the early 21st century, thus ensuring a much longer buffer should the main international import pipelines be cut for any reason. However growth in Turkish electricity demand has often been overestimated. Although much energy infrastructure was privatised in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, as of 2020, energy remained highly state controlled.[151]

A 2020 report from the Istanbul International Centre for Energy and Climate suggested "increased energy efficiency, higher use of renewable energy, improving electricity and natural gas markets, building Turkey’s first nuclear power plants, increased energy technology R&D and continuing and expanding the recent efforts to discover and produce more natural gas and oil".[154]

See also

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