Hurricane Paulette

Map plotting the track and the intensity of the storm, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale

At 12:00 UTC on August 30, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began to track a tropical wave located over Africa for possible development once it moved into the Tropical Atlantic.[2] By 12:00 UTC on September 2, the wave emerged over water, where it began to slowly organize.[3] The wave merged with two disturbances to its southwest between September 3-4 and September 5 respectively and formed a broad area of low pressure on September 6, but convective activity remained disorganized.[4][5][6][7][8] Early the next morning, the low's shower and thunderstorm activity became more organized and better defined, and the NHC began issuing advisories for Tropical Depression Seventeen at 03:00 UTC on September 7. At the time of formation, the depression was located about 1,160 miles (1,865 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands and about 1,425 miles (2,290 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.[9]

Before becoming a tropical depression, the storm had previously struggled to organize due to short-lasting convective bursts with little consistency.[10] It continued to have an elongated center, but at 15:00 UTC on September 7, ASCAT data confirmed that the depression had strengthened, and the NHC upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Paulette.[11] This was the earliest 16th named Atlantic storm ever recorded, shattering the previous record set by 2005's Hurricane Philippe by 10 days.[11][12] It moved generally west-northwestward over the warm Atlantic waters and gradually intensified despite the presence of southwesterly wind shear, which gave it a sheared appearance on satellite.[13] At 15:00 UTC on September 8, Paulette reached its first peak intensity with 1-minute sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) with a minimum central pressure of 995 mbars (29.39 inHg).[14] It held this intensity for roughly 12 hours before increasing wind shear as a result of a large upper-level trough to the storm's northwest once again put a halt to intensification and weakened the storm.[15] The storm's circulation soon became exposed later on September 9, although weakening remained slow.[16]

Paulette intensifying on September 8

Fluctuations in intensity became apparent as Paulette headed northwest and the storm's winds fell to 50 mph (80 km/h) later that day but very quickly raised back up to 65 mph (100 km/h) on September 10 despite Paulette being located in a region of at least 45 knots (50 mph) of wind shear, well above the proper values required for intensification of a typical tropical cyclone.[17] As it exited this unfavorable environment it continued to intensify, nearing hurricane strength and displaying an eye-like feature on visible satellite imagery.[18][19] A Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft flown into the storm later found Paulette had intensified to a hurricane on 21:00 UTC, September 12 on its approach to Bermuda.[20] Although occasional dry air intrusions prevented quick intensification of Paulette, the hurricane slowly became more organized into September 13 as a ragged eye formed.[21] Paulette later made landfall in Bermuda around 09:00 UTC, September 14 as a high-end Category 1 hurricane with winds of 90 mph (145 km/h) and a pressure of 973 mb (28.74 inHg).[22] Paulette continued to intensify after impacting Bermuda, becoming a Category 2 hurricane north of Bermuda and reaching its peak intensity at 18:00 UTC with winds of 105 mph (165 km/h) and a pressure of 965 mbar (28.50 inHg) as it turned northeast.[23] Paulette started to weaken 21 hours later as it began extratropical transition and the eyewall was eroded by dry air.[24] It completed the transition at 15:00 UTC on September 16 and the NHC issued their final advisory.[25]

Paulette shortly before regeneration on September 21

The powerful extratropical cyclone subsequently slowed down some and turned southward in the direction of the Azores, where the NHC began to monitor it again for possible redevelopment.[26][27] Convective activity soon began to occur northeast of the circulation, although the circulation remained ill-defined.[28] Thunderstorms began to wrap around the low by September 20, and on September 22 at 03:00 UTC the NHC determined Tropical Storm Paulette had re-formed about 300 miles (480 km) south-southeast of the Azores.[29][30] Paulette continued eastward after its regeneration, obtaining a third peak intensity of 60 mph (95 km/h) and a pressure of 1002 mb (29.59 inHg) six hours later, although by that time, its thunderstorms were already beginning to quickly wane.[31] The storm briefly gained an eye-like feature surrounded by shallow convection before yet again becoming post-tropical at 03:00 UTC on September 23.[32][33] Early on September 24, Paulette's remnant low curved westward, as the system reached the south side of the Azores High. Paulette's remnant low continued moving westward for the next few days before turning back eastward, as the system made a clockwise loop.[34][35] Paulette passed south of the Azores again, before finally dissipating on September 30.

The wind swath of Hurricane Paulette with hurricane-force winds in red and tropical storm-force winds in orange.

The approach of Paulette prompted the Bermuda government to issue a tropical storm watch at 03:00 UTC on September 12.[36] This was upgraded to a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch at 09:00 UTC before a hurricane warning was issued at 15:00 UTC.[37][38] Multiple observing stations in Bermuda started reporting tropical-storm-force wind gusts beginning at 23:00 UTC on September 13 with sustained tropical-storm-force winds coming soon after.[39] Early on September 14, a wind gust of 117 mph (189 km/h) was measured at the Marine Operations Center (MAROPS), which is elevated at 290 ft above sea level.[40] This came just over an hour after an island-wide power outage affected all of Bermuda, including the Bermuda Weather Service, with only cell phone service remaining active. This led to over 20,000 people losing electrical service.[41] By September 17, 250 customers still remained without power on the island.[42] There were no reported casualties or serious property damage in Bermuda but many trees and some power lines were downed across the island.[43][44] Total damage in Bermuda was estimated at $50 million.[1]

In the United States, swells as high as 10 ft (3 m) affected the East Coast on September 15 and prompted the issuance of several high surf advisories around the coastline.[45] Despite these warnings of high rip current risk by the National Weather Service, a 60-year-old man drowned while swimming in Lavallette, New Jersey after getting caught in rough surf produced by Hurricane Paulette.[46]

• Tropical cyclones in 2020
• List of Category 2 Atlantic hurricanes
• List of Bermuda hurricanes
• Hurricane Fabian (2003) – Made a direct hit on Bermuda as a Category 3 hurricane, causing heavy damage
• Hurricane Igor (2010) – A large hurricane that passed close to Bermuda as a Category 1, causing minor damage
• Hurricanes Fay and Gonzalo (2014) – Two hurricanes that made landfalls on Bermuda a week apart
• Hurricane Nicole (2016) – Made a direct hit on Bermuda as a Category 3 hurricane, bringing moderate damage
• Hurricane Teddy (2020) – Another hurricane of the same year that also impacted Bermuda

Wikimedia Commons has media related to Hurricane Paulette.

• NHC's advisory archive on Hurricane Paulette
• Bermuda Weather Service