List of target seats in the 2015 United Kingdom general election

This article describes the likely or potential target seats at the United Kingdom general election of 2015 to be held on 7 May 2015.

In January 2013, Labour published its list of 106 target seats for the next election.[1] UKIP's list of 12 target seats was reported in August 2014,[2] and others external to UKIP have highlighted seats where UKIP may be strongest.[3] A list of Conservative non-target seats was deduced in February 2015.[4] The Green Party of England & Wales describe having 12 target constituencies, including their one current seat.[5][6]

Below are the most marginal seats listed by the party in second for those parties which won seats at the 2005 or 2010 general elections, ranked by the percentage swing required. These may not be the seats where parties choose to target their resources. Opinion polling in individual constituencies is also another indicator for possible target seats.

Labour targets[7] Swing required Conservative targets[8] Swing required Liberal Democrat targets[9] Swing required
1North Warwickshire (CON)0.05% Hampstead and Kilburn (LAB)0.04% Camborne and Redruth (CON)0.08%
2Thurrock (CON)0.10% Bolton West (LAB)0.10% Oldham East and Saddleworth[note 1] (LAB)0.12%
3Hendon (CON)0.12% Solihull (LD)0.16% Oxford West and Abingdon (CON)0.16%
4Cardiff North (CON)0.20% Southampton Itchen (LAB)0.22% Ashfield (LAB)0.20%
5Sherwood (CON)0.22% Mid Dorset and North Poole (LD)0.29% Sheffield Central (LAB)0.20%
6Norwich South (LD)0.32% Wirral South (LAB)0.66% Edinburgh South (LAB)0.36%
7Stockton South (CON)0.33% Derby North (LAB)0.68% Truro and Falmouth (CON)0.45%
8Broxtowe (CON)0.37% Wells (LD)0.72% Newton Abbot (CON)0.55%
9Lancaster and Fleetwood (CON)0.39% Dudley North (LAB)0.84% Chesterfield (LAB)0.60%
10Bradford East (LD)0.45% Great Grimsby (LAB)1.08% Swansea West (LAB)0.71%
11Amber Valley (CON)0.58% Morley and Outwood (LAB)1.13% Kingston upon Hull North (LAB)0.96%
12Waveney (CON)0.75% Telford (LAB)1.19% Rochdale (LAB)0.97%
13Wolverhampton South West (CON)0.85% Walsall North (LAB)1.37% Harrogate and Knaresborough (CON)0.98%
14Morecambe and Lunesdale (CON)1.00% St Austell and Newquay (LD)1.39% Watford (CON)1.29%
15Carlisle (CON)1.01% Somerton and Frome (LD)1.50% Hampstead and Kilburn (LAB)1.51%
16Stroud (CON)1.12% Birmingham Edgbaston (LAB)1.54% Montgomeryshire (CON)1.75%
17Weaver Vale (CON)1.13% Sutton and Cheam (LD)1.66% Edinburgh North and Leith (LAB)1.82%
18Lincoln (CON)1.16% Halifax (LAB)1.69% St. Albans (CON)2.19%
19Brighton Pavilion (Green)1.21% Newcastle-under-Lyme (LAB)1.80% Newport East (LAB)2.39%
20Plymouth Sutton and Devonport (CON)1.31% Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland (LAB)1.82% Weston-super-Mare (CON)2.56%
21Dewsbury (CON)1.41% Wakefield (LAB)1.82% Hereford and Herefordshire South (CON)2.57%
22Warrington South (CON)1.42% St. Ives (LD)1.87% Torridge and West Devon (CON)2.68%
23Brent Central (LD)1.48% Plymouth Moor View (LAB)1.91% Winchester (CON)2.73%
24Bedford (CON)1.50% Gedling (LAB)1.93% Northampton North (CON)3.09%
25Brighton Kemptown (CON)1.56% Eltham (LAB)1.98% South East Cornwall (CON)3.25%
26Pudsey (CON)1.69% Walsall South (LAB)2.15% Bristol North West (CON)3.25%
27Brentford and Isleworth (CON)1.82% Nottingham South (LAB)2.17% City of Durham (LAB)3.32%
SNP targets Swing required Plaid Cymru targets Swing required
1Ochil & Perthshire South (LAB)5.14% Ynys Môn (LAB)3.55%
Green Party targets Swing required Respect targets Swing required
1Norwich South (LD)7.20% Birmingham Hall Green (LAB)3.9%
Sinn Féin targets Swing required SDLP targets Swing required DUP targets Swing required Alliance targets Swing required
1Belfast North (DUP)3.01% Newry and Armagh (SF)9.3% Belfast East (Alliance)2.22% Belfast South (SDLP)15.00%

Notes
  1. As compared to the 2010 general election result, not the 2011 by-election result.

References
  1. "List of Labour's 106 target seats for 2015". Politicshome.com. Archived from the original on 19 January 2013. Retrieved 3 May 2013.
  2. Holehouse, Matthew (26 August 2014). "Ukip to target Tory ministers' seats". Telegraph.co.uk.
  3. Roberts, Marcus. "REVOLT ON THE LEFT Labour's UKIP problem and how it can be overcome" (PDF). Fabian Society.
  4. "Leaked list shows Tories are not competing in five likely marginals". May2015: 2015 General Election Guide. Retrieved 7 March 2015.
  5. "Will you pledge to vote Green?". Archived from the original on 9 March 2015. Retrieved 7 March 2015.
  6. "The Granola Pact: is there a rift between Natalie Bennett and Caroline Lucas?". Retrieved 7 March 2015.
  7. "Labour TARGET SEATS". http://ukpollingreport.co.uk. Archived from the original on 22 September 2013. Retrieved 22 September 2013. External link in |publisher= (help)
  8. "CONSERVATIVE TARGET SEATS". http://ukpollingreport.co.uk. Retrieved 22 September 2013. External link in |publisher= (help)
  9. "LIBERAL DEMOCRAT TARGET SEATS". http://ukpollingreport.co.uk. Retrieved 22 September 2013. External link in |publisher= (help)
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