Low birth rate in South Korea

In the twentieth century, selective abortion of female fetuses had an important impact on the low birth rate.[9] In Korea, there is a strong sex preference for a son because of the belief that a daughter cannot carry the family name, thus preventing the preservation and continuation of a family line. [10] Moreover, because South Koreans have a preference to have a son as a first child rather than as a second or third child, the abortion rate for female fetuses was high. These preferences caused a high sex ratio, an imbalance of more men than women, which may possibly lead to another episode of low birth rate in the future.

From 1981 to 1988, the sex ratio at birth continued to increase to about 116.55 males to 100 females in the early 1990s.[10] The natural sex ratio at birth is around 105 males to 100 females, so anything higher indicates sex-selective abortion. Despite sex-selective abortion being illegal, the number of prospective parents aborting female fetuses after checking the sex increased. As a result, in 1988, the government banned doctors from revealing the sex of a fetus to expecting parents.[10]

Koreans prioritize their children's education, which is in alignment with their Confucian values, which emphasizes the relationship between higher education and socioeconomic status.[11] Some Korean citizens send their children to expensive hagwon, for-profit after-school educational institutes, in the hope that their children achieve the high results required to enter a prestigious university. In 2009, more than 75% of South Korean children attended private academies.[11]

The hagwon curriculum emphasizes English, math, and writing because of the competitiveness of entering the nation's top three universities: Seoul National University, Korea University, and Yonsei University (collectively known as SKY).[11] In Korean society, sending children to hagwon became a social norm to the point that those who cannot afford to send their children to hagwon are regarded by others as irresponsible and ignorant parents.[12][11]

In 2005, a national survey revealed that 18.2% of women aged 20 to 29 years chose not to have a second child because of the cost of extra education.[12] Parents prefer no more than one or two children to focus on each child's success with the less financial burden.[12] According to a survey by the Health Ministry in 2012, 90% of people who participated in the survey stated that they are reluctant to have children because of high education cost, including private education fees.[13]

As the economy has developed, more South Korean women entered university, resulting in a growth in the female workforce.[12] More women have postponed marriage and pursued improvement of their standard of living rather than having children.[12] From 1985 to 2007, the average age at which a South Korean woman first married increased from 24.1 years to 28.1 years.[12] Moreover, the female college enrollment rate also increased from 31.3% in 1990 to 83.8% in 2008. As the percent of women working outside the home increased from 42.8% in 1980 to 50.2% in 2005, the birth rate also decreased from 6.0 children per woman in 1960 to 1.13 per woman in 2006.

The divorce rate increased by 0.7 from 1970 to 2000 in South Korea. Divorce is the most significant event that affects family dissolution, which results in a low fertility rate.[14] Even though divorce affected birth rate slightly overall from 1970 to 2000, after the economic crisis in 1997, the rapid increase in the divorce rate affected the decrease in the birth rate.[14]

In the economic crisis, many families were dissolved as they could not afford to support their family members. The crude divorce rate increased to 2 (divorces per 1,000 population) in 1997 and increased rapidly to 2.5 in the following year. In 2003, the crude divorce rate jumped again to 3.5.[1]

The Ministry of Gender Equality and Family showed that the Korean youth population was 14 million in 1980. However, the youth population decreased significantly to 10.2 million in 2012, constituting 20.4% of the country's total population.[15] This decline of the youth population is caused by the low birth rate and will affect the future population count. In 2013, the Korean government revealed that if the fertility rate continues to decrease, the number of people ages 9 to 24 years old will decline by 50% from 2013 in 2060.[15] Under the low growth scenario, the working age population is projected to drop from 33.48 million people in 2017 to 14.84 million people (44.1% of the total population) in 2067.[16]

This trend will affect South Korea socially and economically in the long term.[17] Because the number of children continues to decrease, school closures continue to increase.[17] If this trend continues, schools will need to be consolidated and rural city administrations will need to be merged to reduce unnecessary personnel and expenditures.[17]

South Korea also has an aging society, which means that there are a greater number of senior citizens with a smaller number of young people to support them.[17] A survey from the Health Ministry in 2012 reported that more than 83% of respondents believe that this aging society will lead to more taxes and a labor shortage.[13]

The population decline resulting from a low fertility rate could diminish South Korea's potential economic growth to less than 2% as the labor force declines.[17] This lack of economic growth could affect South Korea's sovereign credit and fiscal strength after 2030.[17] Furthermore, the declining number of children could also affect the Korean Army's military budgets.[17] As the number of eligible young men is decreasing, the government could pressure the armed forced to maintain the current military structure while their budget decreases, as national funds are redirected to the problems of aging and low fertility.[17]