Minsky moment

A Minsky moment is a sudden, major collapse of asset values which marks the end of the growth phase of a cycle in credit markets or business activity.

Different phases leading to Minsky Moment

Description

According to the hypothesis, the rapid instability occurs because long periods of steady prosperity and investment gains encourage a diminished perception of overall market risk, which promotes the leveraged risk of investing borrowed money instead of cash. The debt-leveraged financing of speculative investments exposes investors to a potential cash flow crisis, which may begin with a short period of modestly declining asset prices. In the event of a decline, the cash generated by assets is no longer sufficient to pay off the debt used to acquire the assets. Losses on such speculative assets prompt lenders to call in their loans. This rapidly amplifies a small decline into a collapse of asset values, related to the degree of leverage in the market. Leveraged investors are also forced to sell less-speculative positions to cover their loans. In severe situations, no buyers bid at prices recently quoted, fearing further declines. This starts a major sell-off, leading to a sudden and precipitous collapse in market-clearing asset prices, a sharp drop in market liquidity, and a severe demand for cash.[1][2]

As recovery approaches full employment ... soothsayers will proclaim that the business cycle has been banished [and] debts can be taken on ... But in truth neither the boom, nor the debt deflation ... and certainly not a recovery can go on forever.

Hyman Minsky, John Maynard Keynes[3]

The more general concept of a "Minsky cycle" consists of a repetitive chain of Minsky moments: a period of stability encourages risk taking, which leads to a period of instability when risks are realized as losses, which quickly exhausts participants into risk-averse trading (de-leveraging), restoring stability and setting up the next cycle. In this more general view, the Minsky cycle may apply to a wide range of human activities, beyond investment economics.

Context

The term was coined by Paul McCulley of PIMCO in 1998, to describe the 1998 Russian financial crisis,[2] and was named after economist Hyman Minsky, who noted that bankers, traders, and other financiers periodically played the role of arsonists, setting the entire economy ablaze.[4] Minsky opposed the deregulation that characterized the 1980s.

Some, such as McCulley, have dated the start of the financial crisis of 2007–2010 to a Minsky moment, and called the following crisis a "reverse Minsky journey"; McCulley dates the moment to August 2007,[5] while others date the start to some months earlier or later, such as the June 2007 failure of two Bear Stearns funds.

Notes

In praise of ... Hyman Minsky, The Guardian, 22 August 2007
Lahart, Justin (18 August 2007), "In Time of Tumult, Obscure Economist Gains Currency—Mr. Minsky Long Argued Markets Were Crisis Prone; His 'Moment' Has Arrived", The Wall Street Journal, archived from the original on 12 May 2008
Hyman Minsky (1975). John Maynard Keynes. ISBN 0071593012.
Subprime mortgage crisis and possible recession BY JOHN CASSIDY
Global Central Bank Focus Archived 6 February 2010 at the Wayback Machine, by Paul McCulley

Financial crises
Banking panic Bear market Commodity price shocks Credit crunch Credit cycle Currency crisis Debt crisis Energy crisis Flash crash Hyperinflation Liquidity crisis Minsky moment Stock market crash
Pre-1000	Crisis of the Third Century (235–284 CE)
1000–1760	Great Bullion Famine (c. 1400–c. 1500) The Great Debasement (1544–1551) Dutch Republic stock market crashes (c. 1600–1760) Kipper und Wipper (1621–1623) Tulip mania crash (1637) South Sea bubble crash (1720) Mississippi bubble crash (1720)
1760–1840	Amsterdam banking crisis of 1763 Bengal bubble crash (1769–1784) Crisis of 1772 Dutch Republic financial collapse (c. 1780–1795) Panic of 1785 Copper Panic of 1789 Panic of 1792 Panic of 1796–1797 Danish state bankruptcy of 1813 Post-Napoleonic Irish grain price and land use shocks (1815–1816) Panic of 1819 Panic of 1825 Panic of 1837
1840–1870	European Potato Failure (1845–1856) Great Irish Famine Highland Potato Famine Panic of 1847 Panic of 1857 Panic of 1866 Black Friday (1869)
1870–1914	Panic of 1873 Paris Bourse crash of 1882 Panic of 1884 Arendal crash (1886) Baring crisis (1890) Encilhamento (1890–1893) Panic of 1893 Australian banking crisis of 1893 Black Monday (1894) Panic of 1896 Panic of 1901 Panic of 1907 Shanghai rubber stock market crisis (1910) Panic of 1910–11
1918–1939	Early Soviet hyperinflation (1917–1924) Weimar Republic hyperinflation (1921–1923) Shōwa financial crisis (1927) Wall Street Crash of 1929 Panic of 1930
1945–1973	Kennedy Slide of 1962
1973–1982	1970s energy crisis (1973–1980) 1973 oil crisis 1973–1974 stock market crash Secondary banking crisis of 1973–1975 Steel crisis (1973–1982) Latin American debt crisis (1975–1982) 1976 IMF crisis 1979 oil crisis Brazilian hyperinflation (1980–1982)
1982–2007	Steel crisis (1982–1988) Brazilian hyperinflation (1982–1994) Souk Al-Manakh stock market crash (1982) Chilean crisis of 1982 1983 Israel bank stock crisis Black Saturday (1983) Savings and loan crisis (1986–1995) Black Monday (1987) 1988–1992 Norwegian banking crisis Friday the 13th mini-crash (1989) Japanese asset price bubble crash (1990–1992) 1990 oil price shock Rhode Island banking crisis (1990–1992) 1991 Indian economic crisis 1990s Swedish financial crisis (1991–1992) 1990s Finnish banking crisis (1991–1993) 1990s Armenian energy crisis (1991–1995) Cuban Special Period (1991–2000) Black Wednesday (1992) Yugoslav hyperinflation (1992–1994) 1992 Colombian energy crisis 1994 bond market crisis Venezuelan banking crisis of 1994 Mexican peso crisis (1994–1996) 1997 Asian financial crisis October 27, 1997 mini-crash 1998 Russian financial crisis 1998–99 Ecuador financial crisis Samba effect (1999) California electricity crisis (2000–2001) Dot-com bubble crash (2000–2004) 2001 Turkish economic crisis 9/11 stock market crash (2001) Stock market downturn of 2002 South American economic crisis of 2002 2002 Uruguay banking crisis 2003 Myanmar banking crisis 2000s energy crisis (2003–2008) 2004 Argentine energy crisis Nigerian energy supply crisis (2005–) U.S. housing market correction (2006–2007) 2007 Chinese stock bubble crash Zimbabwean hyperinflation (2007–)
2007–2009	Financial crisis of 2007–2008 Subprime mortgage crisis U.S. bear market of 2007–2009 Global financial crisis in September 2008 Global financial crisis in October 2008 Global financial crisis in November 2008 Global financial crisis in December 2008 2008 Bulgarian energy crisis 2008 Central Asia energy crisis 2008 Latvian financial crisis 2008–2009 Belgian financial crisis 2008–09 Russian financial crisis 2008–2009 Ukrainian financial crisis 2008–2011 Icelandic financial crisis 2008–2011 Irish banking crisis 2008–2014 Spanish financial crisis Global financial crisis in 2009 Blue Monday Crash 2009 European debt crisis Greek government-debt crisis
2009–2020	2009 Ecuador electricity crisis 2009 Dubai debt standstill Venezuelan banking crisis of 2009–2010 2010 flash crash 2010–2014 Portuguese financial crisis Energy crisis in Venezuela (2010–) 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami stock market crash August 2011 stock markets fall Black Monday 2011 Bangladesh share market scam 2012–2013 Cypriot financial crisis 2013 Chinese banking liquidity crisis Venezuela economic crisis (2013–) Gaza electricity crisis (2013–) 2014–2016 Brazilian economic crisis Puerto Rican government-debt crisis (2014–) 2014–2017 Russian financial crisis 2015–2016 Chinese stock market turbulence 2015–2016 stock market selloff Zulia energy collapse (2015–) Brexit stock market crash (2016) 2016 Southeastern U.S. gas shortage Venezuelan hyperinflation (2016–) 2017 Sri Lankan fuel crisis Ghana banking crisis (2017–2018) 2018 cryptocurrency crash 2018 Turkish currency and debt crisis 2019 California power shutoffs Lebanese liquidity crisis (2019–)
2020–present	2020 stock market crash 2020 Russia–Saudi Arabia oil price war
List of banking crises List of economic crises List of sovereign debt crises List of stock market crashes and bear markets

Minsky moment

Description

Context

See also

Notes

Further reading