Next New Zealand general election

The 2020 election resulted in a majority for the Labour Party, winning 65 seats, allowing them to continue the Sixth Labour Government unrestricted in the 53rd Parliament. Their coalition partner from the 52nd Parliament, New Zealand First, did not receive enough votes to pass the five percent threshold or win in an electorate, kicking them out of Parliament. Confidence and supply partner the Green Party received 10 seats, up two, becoming the first minor party ever to increase their share of the vote following their being in government. In the opposition, the National Party lost 23 seats, giving them a total of 33, and ACT New Zealand went from one seat to ten. The Māori Party won a Māori electorate and gained an additional list seat after losing representation in the 2017 general election.[1]

New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system to elect the House of Representatives. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party (the party vote) and one for a local candidate (the electorate vote). Political parties that meet the threshold (5% of the party vote or one electorate seat) receive seats in the House in proportion to the percentage of the party vote they receive. 72 of the 120 seats are filled by the MPs elected from the electorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by the first past the post method (i.e. most votes wins). The remaining 48 seats are filled by candidates from each party's closed party list.[2] If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, an overhang results; in this case, the House will add extra seats to cover the overhang.[3]

The political party or party bloc with the majority of the seats in the House forms the Government. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, no party had won enough votes to win an outright majority of seats, until the landslide 2020 Labour victory, which gave them 65 seats. When no party has commanded a majority, parties have had to negotiate with other parties to form a coalition government or a minority government.[4]

Electorate boundaries for the election will be the same as at the 2020 election, with 65 general electorates (49 in the North Island and 16 in the South Island), and 7 Māori electorates. Boundaries are due to be redrawn in 2024, after the 2023 census.

Unless an early election is called or the election date is set to circumvent holding a by-election, a general election is held every three years.[5] The previous election was held on 17 October 2020.

The governor-general must issue writs for an election within seven days of the expiration or dissolution of the current parliament. Under section 17 of the Constitution Act 1986, parliament expires three years "from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." The writs for the 2020 election were returned on 20 November 2020;[6] as a result, the 53rd Parliament must dissolve no later than 20 November 2023. Consequently, the last day for issuance of the writs of election is 27 November 2023. Writs must be returned within 60 days of their issuance (save for any judicial recount, death of a candidate, or emergency adjournment),[7] which would be 26 January 2024. Because polling day must be on a Saturday,[7] and ten days is required for counting of special votes,[8] the last possible date for the next election to be held is 13 January 2024. However, it is expected that the next election will be held in late 2023.[9][10]

Political parties registered with the Electoral Commission can contest the general election as a party. To register, parties must have at least 500 financial members, an auditor, and an appropriate party name.[11] A registered party may submit a party list to contest the party vote, and can have a party campaign expenses limit in addition to limits on individual candidates' campaigns. Unregistered parties and independents can contest the electorate vote only.[12]

Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament for the next general election. The two regular polls are produced by Television New Zealand (1 News), conducted by Colmar Brunton, and Roy Morgan Research, with less frequent polls from MediaWorks New Zealand (Newshub), conducted by Reid Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

• Elections in New Zealand

• Electoral Commission website