Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election

Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament (2020–present) for the next New Zealand general election. The two regular polls are produced by Television New Zealand (1 News), conducted by Colmar Brunton, and Roy Morgan Research, with less frequent polls from MediaWorks New Zealand (Newshub), conducted by Reid Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

The current parliament was elected on Saturday, 17 October 2020. The next general election will take place no later than Saturday, 13 January 2024, however it is expected that the next election will take place in 2023.[1][2]

Party vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to polls not reporting figures for all minor parties and due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

The parties shown in the table are Labour (LAB), National (NAT), Green (GRN), ACT, Māori (MRI), New Zealand First (NZF), Opportunities (TOP), and New Conservative (NCP). Other parties have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.

Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size LAB NAT GRN ACT MRI NZF TOP NCP Lead
Jan 2021 Roy Morgan Research 937472511.59221.5–22
Dec 2020 Roy Morgan Research 923442810.510222–16
28 Nov–2 Dec 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 10045325881.51.60.51.128
Nov 2020 Roy Morgan Research 9394425.512.510.51.512–18.5
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result[3] N/A50.025.67.97.61.22.61.51.524.4
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size LAB NAT GRN ACT MRI NZF TOP NCP Lead

Preferred prime minister

Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as prime minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll.

Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size Jacinda Ardern Judith Collins David Seymour Winston Peters Lead
28 Nov–2 Dec 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,00458124146

Government approval rating
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size Right direction Wrong direction Do not know Lead
Jan 2021 Roy Morgan Research 93771.518.51053
Dec 2020 Roy Morgan Research 92371.51810.553.5
Nov 2020 Roy Morgan Research 93969.52010.549.5

Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom, Greens retain Auckland Central, Māori retains Waiariki, etc.). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[4]

Source Seats in Parliament[lower-roman 1] Likely
government
formation(s)
LAB NAT GRN ACT MRI Total
1 News–Colmar Brunton[5]
28 Nov–2 Dec 2020 poll		 673110102 120 Labour (67)
Roy Morgan Research[6]
January 2021 poll		 593215113 120 Labour–Green (74)
2020 result 653310102 120 Labour (65)
  1. Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

See also

Notes
  1. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.

References
  1. Braae, Alex (22 October 2020). "A tale of two minor parties: Lessons for 2023 for TOP and the New Conservatives". The Spinoff. Retrieved 8 December 2020.
  2. "Election 2020: Matthew Hooton: National set for third defeat in 2023". NZ Herald. Retrieved 8 December 2020.
  3. "2020 GENERAL ELECTION – OFFICIAL RESULTS AND STATISTICS". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. 30 November 2020.
  4. Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  5. Whyte, Anna (4 December 2020). "1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Judith Collins slips further as Labour maintains big election lead". 1 News. TVNZ. Retrieved 4 December 2020.
  6. "New Zealand Labour/Greens support up to 58.5% - highest since the election". Roy Morgan Research. 1 February 2021.
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