Opinion polling for the 2011 New Zealand general election

Opinion polling has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 49th New Zealand Parliament and in the leadup to the 2011 election by various organisations. The main four are Television New Zealand, TV3, The New Zealand Herald and Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Party vote and key events

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary

The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that have consistently polled on average above the 5.0% threshold. The second graph shows the parties polling over 1% which do not consistently poll above the 5.0% threshold.

Summary of poll results given below up to and including 11 November 2011. For simplicity, only political parties that have consistently polled above the 5.0% threshold are shown. Lines give the mean estimated by a Loess smoother, with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval. The vertical line indicates the date of the general election: 26 November 2011.
Summary poll results for political parties trending between 1.0% and the 5.0% threshold, based on the same smoother as the above figure.

Individual polls
Poll Date[nb 1] National Labour Green ACT Māori Prog United
Future		 NZ First Mana Con
2008 election result8 Nov 200844.9333.996.723.652.390.910.874.07N/A [nb 2]
11 Nov 2008 – Phil Goff replaces Helen Clark as leader of Labour Party.
19 Nov 2008 – National Party leader John Key is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand.
Roy Morgan Research[1]17–30 Nov 200844.032.59.54.03.50.51.03.5
Roy Morgan Research[2]1–14 Dec 200847.031.59.54.02.00.51.03.0
Roy Morgan Research[3]2–18 Jan 200948.033.08.03.03.50.51.02.5
Roy Morgan Research[4]19 Jan – 1 Feb 200948.031.09.03.53.50.51.03.0
Roy Morgan Research[5] 2–15 Feb 2009 48.5 32 8.5 2.5 3.5 0.5 1 1.5
One News Colmar Brunton[6]14–19 Feb 200957.031.07.02.02.01.0
3 News Reid Research[7]18 Feb 200960.027.07.01.22.10.21.6
Roy Morgan Research[5] 16 Feb – 1 Mar 2009 56 26 8.5 1.5 3.5 0.5 <0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[5] 2–15 Mar 2009 54.5 29 8 2.5 2 0.5 0.5 2
One News Colmar Brunton[6]28 Mar – 1 Apr 200956.028.06.03.03.01.0
Roy Morgan Research[5] 23 Mar – 5 Apr 2009 50.5 28 9.5 4 3.5 1 <0.5 2.5
One News Colmar Brunton[8] 5 Apr 2009 57.0 31.0 7.0 2.0 2.0
Roy Morgan Research[5] 6–19 Apr 2009 50 32.5 8.5 2.5 3.5 0.5 <0.5 2
Roy Morgan Research[5] 20 Apr – 3 May 2009 55 30.5 7 2 2 <0.5 0.5 2
Roy Morgan Research[9]4–17 May 200952.031.59.52.02.50.50.51.0
Roy Morgan Research[9]18–31 May 200952.031.08.52.02.00.50.51.
28 May 2009  – 2009 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament.
30 May 2009 – Metiria Turei replaces Jeanette Fitzsimons as female co-leader of the Green Party.
13 Jun 2009 – Mount Albert by-election: David Shearer retains the seat for Labour.
Roy Morgan Research[9]1–14 Jun 200952.033.07.52.52.50.50.51.0
Roy Morgan Research[5] 22 Jun – 5 Jul 2009 54 31.5 8 1 3 0.5 0.5 1
Roy Morgan Research[5] 6–19 Jul 2009 52 30 10 1 3.5 0.5 <0.5 2
One News Colmar Brunton[6] 25–29 Jul 2009 56 31 7 1 3.1
Roy Morgan Research[5] 20 Jul – 2 Aug 2009 53.5 34 7 2.5 1.5 0.5 <0.5 1
Roy Morgan Research[5] 3–16 Aug 2009 53.5 32.5 8.5 1 2 0.5 <0.5 2
21 Aug 2009 – The citizens-initiated corporal punishment referendum is held, with voters responding 87.4% "No" to the question "Should a smack as part of good parental correction be a criminal offence in New Zealand?"
Roy Morgan Research[5] 17–30 Aug 2009 56.5 29.5 8 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[10] 31 Aug – 13 Sep 2009 51.5 33 7.5 2 2.5 0.5 0.5 2.5
One News Colmar Brunton[11] 19–24 Sep 2009 54 33 4 3 3 2
Roy Morgan Research[5] 21 Sep – 4 Oct 2009 57.5 28 6.5 1.5 2.5 1 <0.5 2
3 News Reid Research[12] 18 Oct 2009 59.9 27.2 6.9 1.7 2.4 1.0
Roy Morgan Research[5] 5–18 Oct 2009 53 30 7.5 2.5 3 0.5 0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[5] 19 Oct – 1 Nov 2009 55.5 29 7.5 1 3.5 0.5 0.5 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[5] 2–15 Nov 2009 51.5 33 6.5 2.5 2 1 <0.5 2.5
One News Colmar Brunton[13][14] 21–25 Nov 2009 53 31 7 2 3 1
Roy Morgan Research[5] 16–29 Nov 2009 53.5 30.5 7 1.5 3.5 <0.5 <0.5 2.5
26 Nov 2009 – Labour leader Phil Goff makes race-related "nationhood" speech.
3 News Reid Research[15] 13 Dec 2009 55.2 30.8 7.8 1.8 1.7 0.1 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[5] 30 Nov – 13 Dec 2009 54 27.5 9.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 <0.5 4
Roy Morgan Research[5] 4–17 Jan 2010 53 30 8 2 2.5 0.5 0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[5] 18–31 Jan 2010 52 32 6 2 3 0.5 0.5 3.5
Herald-DigiPoll[16] 29 Jan – 10 Feb 2010 56 34 4.6 <1 2.8 <1 <1 1.7
Roy Morgan Research[5] 1–14 Feb 2010 52 33 8 1.5 2.5 0.5 <0.5 2
3 News Reid Research[17] 16 Feb 2010 56.3 29.6 7.3 1.6 2.4 0.2 0.2 1.5
One News Colmar Brunton[18] 14–17 Feb 2010 54 34 5 2 2 2
Roy Morgan Research[5] 15–28 Feb 2010 53.5 31.5 8 1.5 2.5 <0.5 0.5 2
Roy Morgan Research[5] 1–14 Mar 2010 51.5 33.5 6.5 2.5 2 1 0.5 2
Roy Morgan Research[19][20] 22 Mar – 4 Apr 2010 49 33 7.5 2 3 0.5 1 3
One News Colmar Brunton[21] 10–14 Apr 2010 54 33 5 2 2
3 News Reid Research[22] 25 Apr 2010 52.133.88.21.61.90.51.5
Roy Morgan Research[5] 5–18 Apr 2010 49.5 34 7.5 1 4 0.5 0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[23] 3–16 May 2010 48.5 33.5 9 2.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 3
20 May 2010  – 2010 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament.
Roy Morgan Research[23] 17–30 May 2010 52.5 30 9.5 1 3.5 0.5 0.5 2.5
One News Colmar Brunton[24][25] 30 May 2010 49.0 33.0 7.0 1.6 3.6
Roy Morgan Research[23] 31 May – 13 Jun 2010 50.5 33 9.5 1 3 <0.5 1 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[23] 21 Jun – 4 Jul 2010 53 29 8.5 2 3 <0.5 0.5 3
Roy Morgan Research[26] 5–18 Jul 2010 49 31.5 9 2 3 0.5 0.5 4.5
Roy Morgan Research[26] 19 Jul – 1 Aug 2010 51 33.5 6.5 2 3.5 0.5 0.5 2
One News Colmar Brunton[27][28] 8 Aug 2010 49.0 35.0 7.0 2.7 2.3 2.3
3 News Reid Research[28][29] 8 Aug 2010 54.5 30.6 8.5 2.2 1.5 0.2 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[30] 2–15 Aug 2010 5033.57.51.530.53.5
17 Aug 2010 – Chris Carter is removed from the Labour caucus and becomes an independent MP. Labour is reduced to 42 seats but the Opposition remains at 53 seats.
Roy Morgan Research[30] 16–29 Aug 2010 49.532.58.51313.5
4 Sep 2010 – A 7.1-magnitude earthquake strikes Canterbury.
Roy Morgan Research[30] 30 Aug – 12 Sep 2010 48.534821.50.514.5
Roy Morgan Research[30] 20 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 49.536.580.52.52.5
One News Colmar Brunton[31] 26 Sep 2010 543281.12.32.4
Roy Morgan Research[32] 4–17 Oct 2010 52.5338.50.51.50.52.5
3 News Reid Research[33] 11 Oct 2010 53.832.67.60.92.40.31.2
Roy Morgan Research[34] 18–31 Oct 2010 50.5338.51.530.50.52.5
Roy Morgan Research[34] 1–14 Nov 2010 5032.5912.50.53
20 Nov 2010 – Mana by-election: Kris Faafoi retains the seat for Labour, but with a significantly reduced majority.
Roy Morgan Research[34] 15–28 Nov 2010 51337130.50.53
Roy Morgan Research[34] 29 Nov – 12 Dec 2010 48.53571.52.50.513
3 News Reid Research[35] 13 Dec 2010 55.531.27.31.31.70.11.9
One News Colmar Brunton[36] 19 Dec 2010 55334.50.92.23.1
Herald-DigiPoll[37] 30 Dec 2010 52.437.25.30.91.22.5
Roy Morgan Research[38] 4–16 Jan 2011 552971.52.50.54.5
26 Jan 2011 – John Key announces policy of partial privatisation of some state-owned assets.
Roy Morgan Research[39] 17–30 Jan 2011 4934.56.5135.5
2 February 2011 – John Key announces the election will be held on 26 November 2011.
Roy Morgan Research[39] 31 Jan – 13 Feb 2011 52.533.58.50.51.50.52.5
One News Colmar Brunton[40] 20 Feb 2011 513381.32.33.6
3 News Reid Research[41] 20 Feb 2011 54.630.98.20.62.33.3
Roy Morgan Research[42] 14–27 Feb 2011 493581.533
22 Feb 2011 – A 6.3-magnitude earthquake strikes Canterbury, with 181 casualties.
23 Feb 2011 – Hone Harawira defects from Maori Party to become an independent MP, and later forming the Mana Party. Government majority reduced from 16 to 14 seats; Maori Party reduced to four seats.
5 Mar 2011 – Botany by-election: Jami-Lee Ross retains the seat for National, but with a reduced majority.
Roy Morgan Research[42] 28 Feb – 13 Mar 2011 52.532.580.51.50.54
Roy Morgan Research[42] 21 Mar – 3 Apr 2011 5131.5821.50.55
One News Colmar Brunton[43] 10 Apr 2011 543461.11.42.7
3 News Reid Research[44] 17 Apr 2011 57.527.17.71.72.50.22.8
Roy Morgan Research[45] 4–17 Apr 2011 5132813.50.50.53
30 Apr 2011 – Don Brash replaces Rodney Hide as leader of the ACT Party.
Roy Morgan Research[45] 18 Apr – 1 May 2011 52.5317.5120.50.54.5
Roy Morgan Research[45] 2–15 May 2011 532810220.50.53
19 May 2011  – 2011 New Zealand budget is presented to Parliament.
Herald-DigiPoll[46] 19–25 May 2011 54.433.75.51.71.5002.7
One News Colmar Brunton[47] 29 May 2011 523462.51.41.60.9
3 News Reid Research[48] 29 May 2011 53.032.86.52.21.60.22.40.5
Roy Morgan Research[49] 16–29 May 2011 49366.51.52.50.52.5
Roy Morgan Research[50] 30 May – 12 Jun 2011 53307330.52.5
Roy Morgan Research[50] 13–26 Jun 2011 5430.55.52.530.53.5
25 Jun 2011 – Te Tai Tokerau by-election: Hone Harawira is re-elected under the Mana Party.
Herald-DigiPoll[51] 27 Jun 2011 51.236.16.61.91.71.20.5
Roy Morgan Research[52] 27 Jun – 10 Jul 2011 4933.57.532.50.53
3 News Reid Research[53] 10 Jul 2011 55.129.99.11.70.80.02.20.7
14 Jul 2011 – Labour releases their proposed tax package, including the introduction of a capital gains tax.[54]
One News Colmar Brunton[55] 17 Jul 2011 5327103.130.32.40.5
Roy Morgan Research[56] 11–24 Jul 2011 5231.57.5230.52.50.5
Fairfax Media–Research International [57][58] 21–25 Jul 2011 56296.42.21.20.22.00.2
Herald-DigiPoll[59] 30 Jul 2011 52.333.18.31.42.00.90.6
Roy Morgan Research [60] 25 Jul – 7 Aug 2011 51.532721.50.540.5
One News Colmar Brunton[61] 21 Aug 2011 563061.71.40.52.30.9
3 News Reid Research[62] 21 Aug 2011 54.028.89.32.21.50.02.20.9
Herald-DigiPoll[63] 19–26 Aug 2011 5231.59.81.21.80.12.40.2
Roy Morgan Research [64] 15 – 28 Aug 2011 5229.5921.50.53.51
Fairfax Media–Research International[58] 25–29 Aug 2011 57.125.711.01.11.60.12.20.6
Roy Morgan Research [65] 29 Aug – 11 Sep 2011 57267.51.52.50.53.51
9 September 2011 – The 2011 Rugby World Cup opens in Auckland, with unexpected overcrowding of the Auckland Waterfront fan zone and transport delays resulting in some people missing the opening ceremony and game.[66]
13 September 2011 – The Government takes control of the Auckland Waterfront fan zone from Auckland Council.[66]
Roy Morgan Research [67] 12 – 25 Sep 2011 5130.511.51.52.50.510.5
30 Sep 2011 – Credit agencies Fitch and Standard & Poor's both downgrade New Zealand's long-term credit rating from AA+ to AA.[68]
Fairfax Media–Research International[69] 28 Sep 2011 5428101.51.30.42.30.2
One News Colmar Brunton[70] 2 Oct 2011 562991.31.10.01.90.6
3 News Reid Research[71] 2 Oct 2011 57.426.69.81.60.80.01.90.
Roy Morgan Research [72] 26 Sep – 9 Oct 2011 55.5289.51.520.520.5
5 Oct 2011 – MV Rena runs aground on the Astrolabe Reef causing an oil spill in Tauranga, described as New Zealand's worst environmental disaster.
Roy Morgan Research [73] 10–23 Oct 2011 53.529.59.51212.50.5
26 Oct 2011 – Writ Day: The writ of election is issued by the Chief Justice on behalf of the Governor General, instructing the Electoral Commission to conduct the election.[74] Electoral roll closes for printing with 3.01 million eligible voters.[note a][75] Main campaigning season begins.
Herald-DigiPoll [76] 20–27 Oct 2011 53.530.39.51.51.20.12.80.1
3 News Reid Research[77] 30 Oct 2011 52.330.29.41.51.40.02.40.9
Fairfax Media–Research International[78] 27–31 Oct 2011 52.631.39.71.21.20.20.11.51.1
Herald-DigiPoll [79] 28 Oct – 2 Nov 2011 54.229.110.10.91.90.51.70.11.1
One News Colmar Brunton[80] 3 Nov 2011 563090.91.30.12.20.3
Roy Morgan Research [81] 24 Oct – 6 Nov 2011 5326121204.51.0
Fairfax Media–Research International[82] 3–7 Nov 2011 52.525.912.61.01.50.20.32.80.7
Herald-DigiPoll [83] 3–9 Nov 2011 49.528.712.61.50.50.73.70.71
One News Colmar Brunton[84] 10 Nov 2011 542891.52.10.82.90.20.5
3 News Reid Research[85] 13 Nov 2011 53.329.910.20.71.40.02.41.0
11 Nov 2011 – A potentially damaging conversation between John Key and political ally John Banks is recorded without their knowledge.
Herald-DigiPoll [86] 10–16 Nov 2011 49.929.112.61.70.70.14.90.40.6
One News Colmar Brunton[87] 17 Nov 2011 5126131.61.60.32.21.31.4
3 News Reid Research[88] 17 Nov 2011 50.227.413.01.81.30.03.51.01.1
Roy Morgan Research [89] 7 – 18 Nov 2011 5324.5131.53031.0
Fairfax Media–Research International[90] 17 – 21 Nov 2011 54.026.012.00.71.10.00.14.01.1
Herald-DigiPoll [91] 17 – 23 Nov 2011 50.928.011.81.80.40.05.20.31.3
One News Colmar Brunton[92] 24 Nov 2011 5028101.72.00.14.21.02.4
3 News Reid Research[93] 24 Nov 2011 50.826.013.41.01.50.03.11.11.8
Roy Morgan Research [94][note b] 22 – 24 Nov 2011 49.523.514.51.510.56.50.5
26 Nov 2011 – Election Day: A total of 3,049,212 voters were registered to vote in the election.[95] A total of 2,257,336 votes were cast, including the 188,730 advance votes, with a turnout of 73.5%.[96][97]
2011 election result[97] 26 Nov 2011 47.3127.4811.061.071.43–[note c]0.606.591.082.65
Poll Date[nb 1] National Labour Green ACT Māori Prog United
Future		 NZ First Mana Con
  • ^[note a] Voters enrolling after this date could still vote in the general election, but were not included on the printed roll and had to cast special declaration votes.
  • ^[note b] The two graphs near the top of the page include data up to and including this poll.
  • ^[note c] The Progressive Party did not contest the 2011 election.

Preferred Prime Minister

Individual polls
Poll Date[nb 1] John
Key		 Helen
Clark		 Phil
Goff		 Winston
Peters
Colmar Brunton[6] 14–19 Feb 2009 51 6 2
Colmar Brunton[6] 28 Mar – 1 Apr 2009 51 6 1
TV ONE Colmar Brunton[8] 5 Apr 2009 51 9 6
Colmar Brunton[6] 25–29 Jul 2009 54 7 2
3 News-Reid Research[12] 18 Oct 2009 51.6 8.2 4.7 3.0
ONE News Colmar Brunton[13][14] 21–25 Nov 2009 54 5 2
26 Nov 2009 – Labour leader Phil Goff makes race-related "nationhood" speech.
3 News-Reid Research[15] 13 Dec 2009 49.9 6.1 8.0 2.1
Herald Digipoll[16] 29 Jan – 10 Feb 2010 58 7 6.8
ONE News Colmar Brunton[21] 10–14 Apr 2010 48 8
ONE News Colmar Brunton[24] May 2010 46 6
ONE News Colmar Brunton[27][28] 8 Aug 2010 45 9
3 News-Reid Research[28][29][98] 8 Aug 2010 48.7 2.3 7.4 3.7
ONE News Colmar Brunton[31] 26 Sep 2010 52 8
One News-Colmar Brunton[36] 19 Dec 2010 49.16.84.9
3 News-Reid Research[41] 20 Feb 2011 49.16.84.9
ONE News Colmar Brunton[40] 20 Feb 2011 48273
One News-Colmar Brunton[43] 10 Apr 2011 55113
3 News-Reid Research[44] 17 Apr 2011 52.46.8
Herald Digipoll[46] 27 May 2011 67.711.9
One News-Colmar Brunton[47] 29 May 2011 538
3 News-Reid Research[48] 29 May 2011 48.27.6
One News-Colmar Brunton[55] 17 Jul 2011 549
Herald Digipoll[59] 30 Jul 2011 70.37.99.32.9
One News-Colmar Brunton[61] 21 Aug 2011 578
Herald Digipoll[76] 29 Oct 2011 70.613.73.5
One News-Colmar Brunton[80] 3 Nov 2011 5612
Fairfax Media-Research International[90] 17–21 Nov 2011 51.512.53.5
Poll Date[nb 1] John
Key		 Helen
Clark		 Phil
Goff		 Winston
Peters

Other polls

Epsom electorate vote
Poll Date[nb 1] John
Banks		 Paul
Goldsmith		 David
Parker		 David
Hay
2008 election result 8 November 2008 56.1[a]21.8[a]13.6[a]7.4[a]
New Zealand Herald-Key Research[99] 9 October 2011 18.932.94.31
Fairfax Media Research International[100] 17 November 2011 29.145.514.67.7
One News Colmar Brunton[101] 14–17 November 2011 30411711
2011 general election, final result 26 November 201144.1037.8010.456.01

^[a] The candidates in the 2008 general election were Rodney Hide, Richard Worth, Kate Sutton, and Keith Locke respectively.

Voting method referendum
Main article: New Zealand voting method referendum, 2011 § Opinion polls and surveys

Concern over validity

A new polling company, Horizon, has challenged some of the existing polls' validity as they exclude undecided voters and those who chose not to vote.[102] Horizon claim that this may be up to 30% in some polls.[102] However, Horizon's own polling methods have been criticised for their use of a self-selected internet panel.[103] At the 2008 election only the Green Party gained a proportion of the party vote outside (below) what poll trends would suggest.

See also

Notes
  1. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. The Mana Movement and the Conservative Party of New Zealand were both formed in 2011, and as such, did not contest the 2008 general election

References
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