Post-election pendulum for the 2019 Australian federal election
The Coalition won the 2019 federal election with a two-seat majority 77 of 151 lower house seats. Labor holds 68 seats while crossbenchers hold the remaining six.[1]
 2019 Australian federal election |
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| National results |
| State and territory results |
Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."[2]
Pendulum
The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.
The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.
References
- "Seat summary". AEC Tally Room. Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 20 June 2019.
- Division Classifications, Virtual Tally Room 2016, Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2016.
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