Thirteen revenge scenarios

The Thirteen revenge scenarios document was written by Iran's Supreme National Security Council in the wake of the death of Quds force commander Qasem Soleimani by US airstrike on 3 January 2020.[1] It was announced by Secretary Ali Shamkhani on 7 January 2020 as a form a tribute to a departed comrade-in-arms whose final funeral in his birthplace Kerman. Shamkhani warned that the scenarios would "bring a historic nightmare for America."[2]

The document was created as a result of the threat by Ayatollah Khamenei of "hard revenge" loosed mayhem in the political corridors of Iran.[2] In fact, the New York Times reported on 6 January that Khamenei "personally weighed in on how Iran should respond - insisting Iran directly retaliate for the killing".[3] At least 13 scenarios for revenge have been discussed in SNSC meetings. Said Shamkhani to the Fars news agency:[2]

If all Council members agree even on the weakest scenario, it will bring a historic nightmare for America... [It ill] not be just one single operation... The U.S. knows they are vulnerable to Iran's reaction. That's why a number of their patrols have reduced and forces are mainly concentrated at bases... The response is likely to be triggered by medium-range and long-range missiles... If the forces want to take shelter in the bases, we will destroy the bases in addition to the forces... If American forces do not leave our region on their foot and vertically, we will do something that their dead bodies go horizontally.

Shamkhani was aware of 19 US military bases "in the region", including 11 bases located east or west of the Iranian border, and eight north or south of the Iranian border.[2]