Proposed Soviet invasion of Hokkaido

During the Soviet-Japanese War in August 1945, the Soviet Union made plans to invade Hokkaido, the northernmost of Japan's four main Home Islands. Due to opposition from the United States, as well as doubts within the Soviet high command, the plans were cancelled before the invasion could begin.

Proposed Invasion of Hokkaido
Part of the Soviet–Japanese War

Proposed invasion plan for Soviet invasion of Hokkaido in 1945 during World War II. The Soviet Union planned to land at Rumoi and occupy the island north of a line between Rumoi and Kushiro.
DatePlanned beginning August 24, 1945
Location
Hokkaido
Result Cancelled on August 22, 1945
Belligerents
 Soviet Union  Japan
Commanders and leaders
Aleksandr Novikov
Ivan Yumashev		 Kiichiro Higuchi
Saburo Hagi
Units involved

Background

In the last days of World War II, the Soviet Union declared war on Japan, as Stalin secretly agreed in the Tehran and Yalta Conferences. The Soviet declaration of war was a major factor in Japan's decision to surrender on August 15.[2][3] Although all other Allied nations, including the United States, ceased all hostilities upon the surrender, Stalin ordered his troops to continue fighting to capture more Japanese territory[4]:28 and put the USSR in a stronger bargaining position to occupy Japan.[1]:156

The Red Army successfully conquered all of Sakhalin Island, which had been contested between Japan and Russia for a century and fought over during the Russo-Japanese War of 1905, and which by 1945 was divided between the two countries (the Japanese southern half was called Karafuto Prefecture). The Soviets then captured the Kuril Islands starting on August 18, three days after the Japanese surrender. Both territories remain part of Russia's Sakhalin Oblast today, although there remains an ongoing dispute over some of the Kurils.

While planning the conquests of Sakhalin and the Kurils, the Soviets considered it necessary to control Hokkaido (or at least the parts of Hokkaido bordering the Sea of Okhotsk) in order to secure their new territories.[5] However, the Potsdam Declaration of the previous month planned that post-war Japan would control its four main Home Islands of Hokkaido, Honshu, Kyushu, and Shikoku. Annexing Hokkaido to the USSR, then, or even just occupying it, would likely provoke heated opposition from the other Allied countries.[1]:155–156

Proposed battle plans

Marshal of the Soviet Union Aleksandr Vasilevsky envisioned taking the northern half of Hokkaido by landing at the small, remote port[1]:156–157 of Rumoi and occupying everything north of a line from Rumoi to Kushiro. Two rifle divisions of the 87th Rifle Corps were to be used. [6] Air and sea units were also sent to Sakhalin to support the invasion. Even with American ships lent to the Soviets during Project Hula, the Soviet Navy did not have enough transport space to carry both divisions from Sakhalin in one lift, and planned to make two trips.[7] Admiral Ivan Yumashev planned to start the Rumoi landing at 05:00 on August 24.[8][9]

Soviet high command dictated that although logistical preparations should go forward, the invasion should not begin without explicit authorization from headquarters.[10]

Cancellation

While President Harry Truman of the United States was willing to accept Soviet annexation of Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands, which remain part of Russia today, he staunchly opposed any Soviet escapade on Hokkaido. The Potsdam Declaration intended that the Home Islands all be surrendered to US General Douglas MacArthur rather than to the USSR, and so Truman refused to allow the Soviets to participate in the occupation of Japan.[11][9] Furthermore, concerns were raised within the Soviet high command that not only would a Hokkaido invasion be impractical and unlikely to succeed, but it would also violate the agreements of the Yalta conference.[1]:155–156[5]

The invasion was cancelled on August 22, two days before their scheduled start, and Soviet forces concentrated on taking the Kuril Islands instead.[5]

Historical analysis

Historians have generally considered it unlikely that an invasion of Hokkaido would have succeeded. Factors include the small numbers of Soviet transport ships, the small numbers of Soviet ground forces planned for the invasion, and the availability of Japanese air power including kamikaze planes to contest a Soviet landing. Soviet forces suffered heavy losses in the Battle of Shumshu during the invasion of the Kuril Islands, and historians foresaw similar problems plaguing an invasion of Hokkaido.[1][12]

Historian Dennis Giangreco believes that the Japanese forces would have fiercely fought back against an attack after their country had surrendered, and the small, hastily-assembled Soviet forces would have been unable to hold out against them. Because the USSR thought the Japanese would not contest a landing after they had already surrendered, they assembled a relatively small force of two divisions - much smaller than the four field armies, totaling about 12 divisions, that Marshal Georgy Zhukov estimated would be necessary for a full-scale conquest.[1]:155–156 However, after the Japanese fiercely defended Shumshu three days after the surrender, the Soviets were forced to reconsider this assumption.[1]:158

Richard B. Frank, however, believes that despite serious Soviet deficiencies in shipping capacity and air cover, the Soviets may have managed to succeed because Japanese defenses were concentrated in the south to face the Americans, rather than the north to face the USSR.[12]

See also

References
  1. Giangreco, D.M. (2016). "The Hokkaido Myth" (PDF). Journal of Strategy and Politics (2): 148–164. Retrieved 2021-02-01.
  2. Richard B. Frank, Downfall: The End of the Imperial Japanese Empire, Penguin, 2001 ISBN 978-0-14-100146-3. (Extracts on-line)
  3. Robert James Maddox, Hiroshima in History: The Myths of Revisionism, University of Missouri Press, 2007 ISBN 978-0-8262-1732-5.
  4. Tsuyoshi Hasegawa (2003-10-28). The Soviet Factor in Ending the Pacific War: From the Hirota-Malik Negotiations to Soviet Entry into the War (PDF) (Report). University of California, Santa Barbara. p. 25. Retrieved 2021-02-01. In contrast to Truman, who ordered the cessation of hostilities, Stalin ordered his troops to fight on to capture the promised territories.
  5. Hasegawa, Tsuyoshi (2011). "Soviet policy toward Japan during World War II". Cahiers de Monde Russe. 52 (2–3): 245–271. Retrieved 2021-02-01.
  6. Aleksandr Vasilevsky (1945-08-18). ORDER BY ALEKSANDR VASILEVSKY TO THE COMMANDER OF THE 1ST FAR EASTERN FRONT (Report). Retrieved 2021-02-01.
  7. Aleksandr Novikov (1945-08-19). ORDER BY ALEKSANDR NOVIKOV TO THE COMMANDER OF THE 9TH AIR ARMY (Report). Retrieved 2021-02-01.
  8. Ivan Yumashev (1945-08-19). REPORT BY IVAN YUMASHEV TO ALEKSANDR VASILEVSKY (Report). Retrieved 2021-02-01.
  9. Radchenko, Sergey (2015-08-05). "Did Hiroshima Save Japan From Soviet Occupation?". Foreign Policy. Retrieved 2021-02-01.
  10. Aleksandr Vasilevsky (1945-08-22). ORDER BY ALEKSANDR VASILEVSKY TO NIKOLAI KUZNETSOV AND IVAN YUMASHEV (Report). Retrieved 2021-02-01.
  11. Harry S. Truman (1945-08-19). TRANSLATION OF MESSAGE FROM HARRY S. TRUMAN TO JOSEPH STALIN (Report). Retrieved 2021-02-01.
  12. Frank, Richard B. (2007). "Ketsu Go". In Hasegawa, Tsuyoshi (ed.). The End of the Pacific War: Reappraisals. p. 89. ISBN 9780804754279.

Communications among the Soviets, and between Truman and Stalin, regarding the Hokkaido invasion plans. Provided by the Wilson Center.

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