1988 Canadian federal election

The 1988 Canadian federal election was held November 21, 1988, to elect members of the House of Commons of Canada of the 34th Parliament of Canada. It was an election largely fought on a single issue: the Canada–United States Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

1988 Canadian federal election

November 21, 1988

295 seats in the House of Commons
148 seats needed for a majority
Turnout75.3%[1]
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Brian Mulroney John Turner Ed Broadbent
Party Progressive Conservative Liberal New Democratic
Leader since June 11, 1983 June 16, 1984 July 7, 1975
Leader's seat Charlevoix Vancouver Quadra Oshawa
Last election 211 seats, 50.03% 40 seats, 28.02% 30 seats, 18.81%
Seats before 203 38 32
Seats won 169 83 43
Seat change 34 45 11
Popular vote 5,667,543 4,205,072 2,685,263
Percentage 43.02% 31.92% 20.38%
Swing 7.02pp 3.89pp 1.57pp

Popular vote by province, with graphs indicating the number of seats won. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote by province but instead via results by each riding.

The Canadian parliament after the 1988 election

Prime Minister before election

Brian Mulroney
Progressive Conservative

Prime Minister after election

Brian Mulroney
Progressive Conservative

Campaign

Incumbent Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, had signed the agreement. The Liberal Party, led by John Turner, was opposed to the agreement, as was the New Democratic Party led by Ed Broadbent.

The Progressive Conservatives went into the election suffering from a number of scandals. Despite winning a large majority only four years before, they looked vulnerable at the outset.

The Liberals had some early struggles, notably during one day in Montreal where three different costs were given for the proposed Liberal daycare program. The campaign was also hampered by a Canadian Broadcasting Corporation report that stated there was a movement in the backroom to replace Turner with Jean Chrétien, even though Turner had passed a leadership review in 1986.

Support swung back and forth between the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals over free trade. With mid-campaign polls suggesting a Liberal government, this prompted the Conservatives to stop the relatively calm campaign they had been running, and go with Allan Gregg's suggestion of "bombing the bridge" that joined anti-FTA voters and the Liberals: Turner's credibility. The ads focused on Turner's leadership struggles, and combined with over $6 million CAD in pro-FTA ads, managed to stop the Liberals' momentum.

The Liberals reaped most of the benefits of opposing the FTA and doubled their representation to 83 seats to emerge as the main opposition; the NDP had also made gains but finished a distant third with 43 seats. The Progressive Conservatives won a reduced but strong majority government with 169 seats. Despite the Liberals' improved standing, the results were considered a disappointment for Turner, after polls in mid-campaign predicted a Liberal government. In an ironic reversal of most prior federal elections, the Liberals were kept out of power by their inability to make any headway into the overwhelming Tory majority in Quebec. Indeed, the Liberals actually lost five seats in Quebec, many of which they had only retained in 1984 due to vote-splitting between the Tories and the since-defunct Parti nationaliste du Québec. This election loss sealed Turner's fate; he would eventually resign in 1990, and was succeeded by Jean Chrétien, who proved to be a more effective leader.

Although most Canadians voted for parties opposed to free trade, the Tories were returned with a majority government, and implemented the deal.

Election milestones

Until the 2011 federal election, the 1988 election was the most successful in the New Democratic Party's history. The party dominated in British Columbia and Saskatchewan, won significant support in Ontario and elected its first (and, until the 2008 election, only) member from Alberta.

This was the second election contested by the Green Party, and it saw a more than 50% increase in its vote, but it remained a minor party.

The election was the last for Canada's Social Credit movement: the party won no seats, and had an insignificant portion of the popular vote.

The newly founded Reform Party also contested seats in Western Canada. Reform won no seats and was not considered a major party at the national level. However, Deborah Grey would win the first seat for Reform, Beaver River in Alberta, in a by-election four months later.

For the Progressive Conservatives, this was the last federal election they would ever win.

Opinion polling

The campaign's polling volatility can be seen in the shifting polling averages throughout the campaign.[2] The weekly averages of the campaign, rounded to nearest whole number, were as follows:

Week PC LPC NDP Lead
Results 43.0 31.9 20.4 11.1
7 41 33 22 8
6 37 37 23 Tie
5 37 38 22 1
4 35 36 26 1
3 42 27 30 12
2 43 27 28 15
1 43 28 26 15
Graph of opinion polls

National results

For a complete list of MPs elected in the 1988 election see 34th Canadian Parliament.

Party Party leader # of
candidates
Seats Popular vote
1984 Dissol. Elected % Change # % Change
  Progressive Conservative Brian Mulroney 295 211 203 169 -19.9% 5,667,543 43.02% -7.02pp
  Liberal John Turner 294 40 38 83 +107.5% 4,205,072 31.92% +3.89pp
  New Democratic Party Ed Broadbent 295 30 32 43 +34.4% 2,685,263 20.38% +1.57pp
Reform Preston Manning 72 * - - * 275,767 2.09% *
Christian Heritage Ed Vanwoudenberg 63 * - - * 102,533 0.78% *
Rhinoceros Cornelius I 74 - - - - 52,173 0.40% -0.39pp
Green Seymour Trieger 68 - - - - 47,228 0.36% +0.14pp
Confederation of Regions Elmer Knutson 51 - - - - 41,342 0.31% -0.68pp
Libertarian Dennis Corrigan 88 - - - - 33,135 0.25% +0.06pp
  No affiliation 100 - - -   24,516 0.19% -0.12pp
  Independent 55 1 4 - - 22,982 0.17% -0.01pp
Commonwealth of Canada Gilles Gervais 58 - - - - 7,467 0.06% -0.21pp
Communist George Hewison 51 - - - - 7,066 0.05% -0.01pp
Social Credit Harvey Lainson 9 - - - - 3,407 0.03% -0.10pp
     Vacant 5  
Total 1,573 282 282 295 +4.6% 13,175,494 100%  

Note:

"% change" refers to change from previous election

169 83 43
Progressive Conservative Liberal NDP

Vote and seat summaries

Popular vote
PC
43.02%
Liberal
31.92%
NDP
20.38%
Reform
2.09%
Others
2.59%
Seat totals
PC
57.29%
Liberal
28.14%
NDP
14.58%

A number of unregistered parties also contested the election. The Western Canada Concept party, led by Doug Christie, fielded three candidates in British Columbia. The Western Independence Party ran one candidate in British Columbia, seven in Alberta, and three in Manitoba (although one of the Manitoba candidates appears to have withdrawn before election day).

The Liberal candidate in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Emmanuel Feuerwerker, withdrew from the race after suffering a heart attack, resulting in the Liberals not running a candidate in all 295 ridings during this election.

The Marxist–Leninist Party fielded candidates in several ridings.

Blair T. Longley campaigned in British Columbia as a representative of the "Student Party". Newspaper reports indicate that this was simply a tax-avoidance scheme.

The moribund Social Credit Party fielded nine candidates, far short of the 50 required for official recognition. However, the Chief Electoral Officer allowed the party's name to appear on the ballot by virtue of its half-century history as a recognized party. It would be the last time that the party, which had been the third-largest or fourth-largest party in Canada at its height, would fight an election under its own name. The party was deregistered before the 1993 election after it failed to nominate enough candidates to keep its registration.

Results by province

Party name BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PE NL NT YK Total
     Progressive Conservative Seats: 12 25 4 7 46 63 5 5 - 2 - - 169
Popular Vote: 35.3 51.8 36.4 36.9 38.2 52.7 40.4 40.9 41.5 42.2 26.4 35.3 43.0
     Liberal Seats: 1 - - 5 43 12 5 6 4 5 2 - 83
Vote: 20.4 13.7 18.2 36.5 38.9 30.3 45.4 46.5 49.9 45.0 41.4 11.3 31.9
     New Democratic Party Seats: 19 1 10 2 10 - - - - - - 1 43
Vote: 37.0 17.4 44.2 21.3 20.1 14.4 9.3 11.4 7.5 12.4 28.3 51.4 20.38
Total seats 32 26 14 14 99 75 10 11 4 7 2 1 295
Parties that won no seats:
Reform Vote: 4.8 15.4   3.3                 2.1
Christian Heritage Vote:   1.1     1.4             2.0 0.8
Rhinoceros Vote:           1.2             0.4
Green Vote:                         0.4
Confederation of Regions Vote:             4.3           0.3
Libertarian Vote:                         0.3
Commonwealth of Canada Vote:           0.2             0.1
Communist Vote:                         0.1
Social Credit Vote:                         xx
  Other Vote:                         0.4

xx - less than 0.05% of the popular vote.

Note: Parties that captured less than 1% of the vote in a province are not recorded.

Notes

10 closest ridings

  1. London-Middlesex, ON: Terry Clifford (PC) def. Garnet Bloomfield (Lib) by 8 votes
  2. Northumberland, ON: Christine Stewart (Lib) def. Reg Jewell (PC) by 28 votes
  3. Hamilton Mountain, ON: Beth Phinney (Lib) def. Marion Dewar (NDP) by 73 votes
  4. York North, ON: Maurizio Bevilacqua (Lib) def. Micheal O'Brien (PC) by 77 votes
  5. Rosedale, ON: David MacDonald (PC) def. Bill Graham (Lib) by 80 votes
  6. London East, ON: Joe Fontana (Lib) def. Jim Jepson (PC) by 102 votes
  7. Haldimand-Norfolk, ON: Bob Speller (Lib) def. Bud Bradley (PC) by 209 votes
  8. Hillsborough, PE: George Proud (Lib) def. Thomas McMillan (PC) by 259 votes
  9. Cariboo—Chilcotin, BC: Dave Worthy (PC) def. Jack Langford (NDP) by 269 votes
  10. Vancouver Centre, BC: future Prime Minister Kim Campbell (PC) def. Johanna Den Hertog (NDP) by 269 votes

See also

Articles on parties' candidates in this election:

References

  1. Pomfret, R. "Voter Turnout at Federal Elections and Referendums". Elections Canada. Elections Canada. Retrieved 11 January 2014.
  2. Blais, Andre; Boyer, M. Martin (1996). "Assessing the Impact of Televised Debates: The Case of the 1988 Canadian Election". British Journal of Political Science. 26 (2): 143–164. doi:10.1017/S0007123400000405. ISSN 0007-1234. JSTOR 194037.

Further reading

  • Argyle, Ray. Turning Points: The Campaigns That Changed Canada - 2011 and Before (2011) excerpt and text search ch 14
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.