2021 Dutch general election

The 2021 Dutch general election to elect the members of the House of Representatives is scheduled for 17 March.

2021 Dutch general election
On or before 17 March 2021
All 150 seats in the House of Representatives
76 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
VVD Mark Rutte[1] 32
PVV Geert Wilders[2] 20
CDA Wopke Hoekstra[3] 19
D66 Sigrid Kaag[4] 19
GL Jesse Klaver[5] 14
SP Lilian Marijnissen[5] 14
PvdA Lilianne Ploumen[6] 9
CU Gert-Jan Segers[7] 5
PvdD Esther Ouwehand[8] 4
50+ Liane den Haan[9] 3
SGP Kees van der Staaij[10] 3
DENK Farid Azarkan[11] 3
FvD Thierry Baudet[12] 2
Indep. N/A 2
Incumbent Prime Minister
Mark Rutte
VVD

The Third Rutte cabinet was inaugurated after the longest coalition formation in Dutch history, with 225 days between the election and swearing in of the cabinet. The current cabinet is led by Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who presides over a coalition consisting of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), Democrats 66 (D66) and Christian Union (CU). The coalition held a narrow majority in both legislative chambers at the time of the cabinet's inauguration, with 76 of 150 seats in the House of Representatives and 38 of 75 seats in the Senate. Following the 2019 Senate election, it has a minority of 32 seats in the upper chamber. After Wybren van Haga was expelled from the VVD faction in 2019, the coalition lost its majority in the House of Representatives.[13]

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Interior Minister Kajsa Ollongren has proposed spreading the election over a period of three days between 15 and 17 March 2021.[14] The government fell on 15 January 2021 and continues as a demissionary cabinet.

Background

Previous election

The 2017 general election was held after a five-year coalition government between the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and Labour Party (PvdA). The PvdA suffered heavy losses in the election, being reduced from 38 to 9 seats, while the VVD lost 8 seats, falling from 41 to 33 but remaining the largest party. The Party for Freedom (PVV) came in second with 20 seats, 5 more than it won in the 2012 election, while the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) gained 6 seats to win 19 in total, Democrats 66 (D66) gained 7 to win 19, GroenLinks (GL) gained 10 to win 14, and the Socialist Party (SP) lost 1 to win 14. The election also saw two new parties, Denk and Forum for Democracy (FvD), enter the House of Representatives, winning 3 and 2 seats, respectively. Four other smaller parties maintained representation in the lower chamber: Christian Union (CU) and Party for the Animals (PvdD) with 5 seats each, 50PLUS with 4 seats, and the Reformed Political Party (SGP) with 3 seats. As the largest party, the VVD took the lead in forming a coalition, and appointed Edith Schippers as scout (verkenner) for the formation on 16 March.[15]

The most-suggested coalition configuration by party leaders was one between the VVD, CDA, D66, and GroenLinks, with a coalition between the VVD, CDA, D66, and Christian Union the second-most discussed option.[16] After first consultative talks between the VVD, CDA, D66, and GroenLinks on 23 March, the four parties agreed to begin negotiating a coalition between the four;[17] such a coalition would control a comfortable majority in the House of Representatives, with 85 of 150 seats, and a thin majority in the Senate, with 39 of 75 seats.[18] On 27 March, Schippers presented her report to the Speaker of the House of Representatives Khadija Arib, thereby concluding the scouting period, and advised that a coalition consisting of the VVD, D66, CDA, and GroenLinks be formed.[19] On 28 March, Schippers was appointed the sole informateur for the cabinet formation.[20] However, she announced on 15 May that coalition talks had failed over migration issues,[21] and submitted her final report to Arib on 16 May.[22] She was reappointed as informateur on 17 May,[23] scouting out the possibility of a coalition with the three larger parties and Christian Union, but concluded after extensive talks on 23 May that there was little reason to continue due to fundamental disagreements between D66 and CU on medical and ethical policies.[24]

In her final report on 29 May, Schippers recommended Herman Tjeenk Willink as the next informateur.[25] He was subsequently appointed the next day,[26] and attempted to continue negotiations including GroenLinks before collapsing on 12 June.[27] With it becoming clear that the only possible fourth coalition partner would be Christian Union, Tjeenk Willink submitted his final report on 27 June as negotiations with CU began, recommending Gerrit Zalm as the next informateur.[28] On 9 October, the parties announced that they had concluded a provisional coalition agreement for the new cabinet.[29] Zalm presented his final report on 10 October, which was approved by the four parliamentary parties,[30] and Mark Rutte was appointed as formateur on 12 October, promising a cabinet by 26 October.[31] The Rutte III cabinet was officially sworn in by King Willem-Alexander of the Netherlands with a total of 24 ministers and state secretaries – 9 from the VVD, 6 each from the CDA and D66, and 3 from the CU – on 26 October,[32][33] 225 days after the election, making it the longest cabinet formation in Dutch history.[34] The four-party coalition initially held 76 of 150 seats in the lower chamber and 38 of 75 seats in the upper chamber.[35]

Electoral system

The 150 members of the House of Representatives are elected by open list proportional representation. Although the country is divided into 20 regional constituencies for the purposes of regional electoral lists, it is functionally treated as a single constituency at the national level. Seats are distributed at the national level on the basis of the electoral lists. First, the number of seats per list is determined using the D'Hondt method, effectively resulting in an electoral threshold of 1/150th (0.67%) of votes to secure a seat. Voters have the option of casting a preferential vote. The seats won by a list are first allocated to the candidates who, in preferential votes, have received at least 25 percent of the number of votes needed for one seat (effectively 0.17% of the total votes), regardless of existing placement on their electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Any remaining seats are allocated to candidates according to their placement on the electoral list.[36]

Pursuant to articles C.1, C.2, and C.3 of the electoral law, elections for the House of Representatives take place every four years in March. The next general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021, unless the chamber is dissolved early.[37]

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the House of Representatives.

Parties represented in the Tweede Kamer
Name Main ideology Position Parliamentary leader Lijsttrekker 2017 result Current seats
Votes (%) Seats
VVD People's Party for Freedom and Democracy
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie		 Conservative liberalism Centre-right Klaas Dijkhoff Mark Rutte 21.3%
33 / 150
32 / 150
PVV Party for Freedom
Partij voor de Vrijheid		 Right-wing populism Right-wing to far-right Geert Wilders 13.1%
20 / 150
20 / 150
CDA Christian Democratic Appeal
Christen-Democratisch Appèl		 Christian democracy Centre to centre-right Pieter Heerma Wopke Hoekstra 12.4%
19 / 150
19 / 150
D66 Democrats 66
Democraten 66		 Social liberalism Centre Rob Jetten Sigrid Kaag 12.2%
19 / 150
19 / 150
GL GreenLeft
GroenLinks		 Green politics Centre-left to left-wing Jesse Klaver 9.1%
14 / 150
14 / 150
SP Socialist Party
Socialistische Partij		 Democratic socialism Left-wing Lilian Marijnissen 9.1%
14 / 150
14 / 150
PvdA Labour Party
Partij van de Arbeid		 Social democracy Centre-left Lilianne Ploumen 5.7%
9 / 150
9 / 150
CU Christian Union
ChristenUnie		 Christian democracy Syncretic Gert-Jan Segers 3.4%
5 / 150
5 / 150
PvdD Party for the Animals
Partij voor de Dieren		 Animal rights Left-wing Esther Ouwehand 3.2%
5 / 150
4 / 150
50+ 50PLUS Pensioners' interests Centre Corrie van Brenk Liane den Haan 3.1%
4 / 150
3 / 150
SGP Reformed Political Party
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij		 Christian right Right-wing Kees van der Staaij 2.1%
3 / 150
3 / 150
DENK DENK Minority rights Centre-left Farid Azarkan 2.1%
3 / 150
3 / 150
FvD Forum for Democracy
Forum voor Democratie		 National conservatism Right-wing to far-right Thierry Baudet 1.8%
2 / 150
2 / 150

Unrepresented or new political parties

A record number of 89 parties registrered with the Electoral Council in order to compete in the election.[38] However most parties will not achieve (nationwide) ballot access, as they will either not be able to pay the 11.250 euro deposit and/or gather the required 580 support statements (30 in each constituency, plus 10 for the BES-islands).

The following parties that are not yet represented in parliament have submitted an electoral list to the Electoral Council.[39]

Name Main ideology Position Lijsttrekker 2017 result Ballot access
Votes (%) Seats
PPNL Pirate Party
Piratenpartij		 Pirate politics Syncretic Matthijs Pontier 0.34%
0 / 150
 20/20
BIJ1 BIJ1 Egalitarianism Far-left Sylvana Simons 0.27%
0 / 150
 20/20
JL Jesus Lives
Jezus Leeft		 Evangelism Right-wing Florens van der Spek 0,03%
0 / 150
 16/20
LP Libertarian Party
Libertaire Partij		 Libertarianism Right-wing Robert Valentine 0.01%
0 / 150
 20/20
CO Code Orange
Code Oranje		 Direct democracy Syncretic Richard de Mos Did not exist 20/20
BBB Farmer–Citizen Movement
BoerBurgerBeweging		 Agrarianism Centre-right Caroline van der Plas Did not exist 19/20
VSN Free and Social Netherlands
Vrij en Sociaal Nederland		 COVID-19 scepticism Centre Bas Filippini Did not exist 6/20
LHK Henk Krol List
Lijst Henk Krol		 Progressive conservatism Centre-right Henk Krol Did not exist 19/20
JA21 JA21 Conservative liberalism Right-wing Joost Eerdmans Did not exist 20/20
JONG YOUTH
JONG		 Youth politics Centre Jaron Tichelaar Did not exist 19/20
MN Modern Netherlands
Modern Nederland		 E-democracy Syncretic Niels Heeze Did not exist 4/20
NIDA NIDA Islamic democracy Syncretic Nourdin El Ouali Did not participate 20/20
NLB NLBeter Public sector interest Syncretic Esther van Fenema Did not exist 20/20
S Splinter Progressive liberalism Centre-left Femke Merel van Kooten Did not exist 19/20
DG The Greens
De Groenen		 Green politics Centre Otto ter Haar Did not participate 2/20
DFP The Party Party
De Feestpartij		 Satire Syncretic Johan Vlemmix Did not exist 8/20
PvdR Party for the Republic
Partij voor de Republiek		 Republicanism Centre Bruno Braakhuis Did not exist 2/20
PvdE Party of Unity
Partij voor de Eenheid		 Islamism Right-wing Arnoud van Doorn Did not participate 8/20
TON Proud of the Netherlands
Trots op Nederland		 Conservative liberalism Right-wing Sander van den Raadt Did not participate 13/20
O Sincere
Oprecht		 National conservatism Right-wing Michael Ruperti Did not exist 19/20
UCF Ubuntu Connected Front Ubuntuism Centre-left Regillio Vaarnold Did not exist 13/20
VOLT Volt Netherlands
Volt Nederland		 European federalism Centre to centre-left Laurens Dassen Did not exist 20/20
WZNL We Are the Netherlands
Wij zijn Nederland		 Ethnic nationalism Far-right Erwin Versteeg Did not exist 6/20
* Unnamed list
Blanco lijst		 COVID-19 scepticism Centre Anna Zeven Did not exist 12/20

Opinion polls
Main article: Opinion polling for the 2021 Dutch general election

References
  1. "Kandidatenlijst Tweede Kamerverkiezingen". VVD (in Dutch). Retrieved 14 January 2021.
  2. "De Tussenstand: kandidaat-lijsttrekkers TK-Verkiezingen 2021". De Verkiezingswijzer (in Dutch). 9 March 2020. Retrieved 29 October 2020.
  3. Soest, Hans van (11 December 2020). "Wopke Hoekstra wordt lijsttrekker CDA". Algemeen Dagblad (in Dutch). Retrieved 15 December 2020.
  4. "Sigrid Kaag met 96 procent gekozen tot D66-leider". NOS (in Dutch). Retrieved 4 September 2020.
  5. "Tweede Kamerverkiezingen 2021". Parlement.com (in Dutch). Retrieved 27 June 2020.
  6. "Partijbestuur draagt Lilianne Ploumen voor als lijsttrekker" (in Dutch). Partij voor de Arbeid. Retrieved 18 January 2021.
  7. "ChristenUnie mikt met Segers aan roer op zeven zetels" (in Dutch). RTL Nieuws. 17 April 2020. Retrieved 22 June 2020.
  8. "Partij voor de Dieren wil met Esther Ouwehand verkiezingen in" (in Dutch). Algemeen Dagblad. 18 June 2020. Retrieved 22 June 2020.
  9. Hartog, Tobias den (3 October 2020). "50Plus kiest voor Liane den Haan als lijsttrekker, weer na interne onrust" (in Dutch). Retrieved 1 November 2020.
  10. "Van der Staaij opnieuw lijsttrekker SGP". Reformatorisch Dagblad (in Dutch). 28 February 2020. Retrieved 27 June 2020.
  11. "Denk draagt Azarkan voor als lijsttrekker". NRC (in Dutch). 8 September 2020. Retrieved 8 September 2020.
  12. "Thierry Baudet door als partijleider FvD, 76 procent leden is voor". NOS (in Dutch). 4 December 2020. Retrieved 15 December 2020.
  13. "76ste Kamerlid vooral bekend om gedoe met zijn pandjes". nos.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 15 June 2020.
  14. "Ollongren wil verkiezingen uitsmeren over 15, 16 en 17 maart". nos.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 31 October 2020.
  15. "Edith Schippers verkenner bij formatie". Trouw. 16 March 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  16. Joost de Vries (20 March 2017). "Van middenkabinet tot 'christelijk progressief', alle formatiewensen op een rij". de Volkskrant. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  17. "Formatie dag 8: de onderhandelingen gaan beginnen". NOS. 23 March 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  18. "Een coalitie van asfalt en geitenwollensokken lijkt best haalbaar". NOS. 23 March 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  19. "VVD, CDA, D66 en GroenLinks willen verder met Schippers". Trouw. 27 March 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  20. Robert Giebels (27 March 2017). "Geen tweede informateur, Schippers blijft als enige de formatie leiden". de Volkskrant. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  21. "Formatie nieuw kabinet vastgelopen op migratie". NOS. 15 May 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  22. Joost de Vries (16 May 2017). "Schippers zette formatie onder druk: 'Kom nu tot besluiten'". de Volkskrant. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  23. Joost de Vries (17 May 2017). "In formatiedebat leiden (bijna) alle wegen naar ChristenUnie". de Volkskrant. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  24. "D66 en ChristenUnie gaan niet onderhandelen over de vorming van een kabinet". Trouw. 23 May 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  25. "Formatiedag 75: nieuwe fase met Tjeenk Willink". NOS. 29 May 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  26. "Ook in Kamerdebat harde verwijten over formatie". NOS. 30 May 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  27. Raoul du Pré (12 June 2017). "Overleg tussen VVD, CDA, D66 en GroenLinks klapt opnieuw: 'Dit is niet mogelijk". de Volkskrant. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  28. "Gerrit Zalm wordt de nieuwe informateur". Trouw. 26 June 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  29. "Onderhandelaars formatie: we zijn het eens". NOS. 9 October 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  30. "Teruglezen - Het regeerakkoord ligt er. Lees hier wat er in staat en hoe er op werd gereageerd". de Volkskrant. 10 October 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  31. "Rutte nu officieel formateur: 'Op 26 oktober bij koning op bordes'". RTL Nieuws. 12 October 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  32. "Dit zijn de 24 mannen en vrouwen van Rutte III". NOS. 26 October 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  33. "Kabinet-Rutte III kan aan de slag". NOS. 26 October 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  34. "Rutte III: 76 kikkers in de kruiwagen". De Telegraaf. 25 October 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  35. Gerard Vroegindeweij (18 March 2017). "Kan CU in kabinet en SGP coalitie gedogen?". Reformatorisch Dagblad. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  36. Nederland, Parlementsverkiezingen, 15 maart 2017: Eindrapport (Report). OSCE/ODIHR. 7 June 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  37. "Tweede Kamer". Kiesraad. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  38. Kiesraad (30 December 2020). "Record aantal (89) partijnamen geregistreerd voor Tweede Kamerverkiezing 2021 - Nieuwsbericht - Kiesraad.nl". www.kiesraad.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 23 January 2021.
  39. Kiesraad (2 January 2021). "Recordaantal partijen (41) levert kandidatenlijst in voor Tweede Kamerverkiezing". www.kiesraad.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 4 January 2021.
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