43rd Manitoba general election

The 43rd Manitoba general election is scheduled to occur on or before 2023 to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. The incumbent Progressive Conservatives will attempt to retain the majority they won in the 2019 election.

43rd Manitoba general election
On or before October 3, 2023
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
 
Leader Brian Pallister Wab Kinew
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since July 30, 2012 September 16, 2017
Leader's seat Fort Whyte Fort Rouge
Last election 36 seats, 47.07% 18 seats, 31.38%
Current seats 36 18
Seats needed 11
 
Leader Dougald Lamont James Beddome
Party Liberal Green
Leader since October 21, 2017 November 15, 2014
Leader's seat St. Boniface No seat
Last election 3 seats, 14.48% 0 seats, 6.24%
Current seats 3 0
Seats needed 26 29
Incumbent Premier

Brian Pallister
Progressive Conservative

Legislature summary

Manitoba Legislature

Party Leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2019 Current Next +/- Votes % +/-
Progressive Conservative Brian Pallister –3636
New Democratic Wab Kinew –1818
Liberal Dougald Lamont –33
Green James Beddome –––––
  Manitoba Forward Wayne Sturby –––––
  Manitoba First Douglas Petrick –––––
Communist Darrell Rankin –––––
  Independents –––––
  Vacant 0–
Blank and invalid votes
Total 5757–
Registered voters/turnout

Opinion polls
Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election
Pollster Dates
conducted		 Sample
size		 Polling
method		 Margin
of error		 PC NDP Liberal Green Others Lead
Probe Research[p 1] Nov 24–Dec 4, 2020 1,000 Telephone 3.1% 37% 41% 14% 6% 3% 4%
Angus Reid[p 2] Nov 24–30, 2020 420 Online 4.8% 39% 40% 12% 5% 4% 1%
Probe Research[p 3] Sep 8–17, 2020 1,000 Telephone 3.1% 43% 34% 16% 5% 3% 9%
EKOS[p 4] Jul 24–Aug 26, 2020 1,154 HD-IVR 2.9% 44% 31% 12% 9% 4% 13%
EKOS[p 5] Jun 16–Jul 23, 2020 1,691 HD-IVR 2.4% 43% 27% 18% 7% 5% 16%
Probe Research[p 6] Jun 2–11, 2020 1,000 Telephone 3.1% 38% 36% 18% 7% 2% 2%
Angus Reid[p 7] May 19–24, 2020 430 Online 4.7% 45% 36% 12% 6% 1% 9%
Probe Research[p 8] Mar 10–24, 2020 1,000 Telephone 3.1% 43% 33% 14% 8% 2% 10%
Probe Research[p 9] Nov 27–Dec 10, 2019 1,000 Telephone 3.1% 42% 36% 13% 8% 2% 6%
2019 general election Sep 10, 2019 — — — 47.1% 31.4% 14.5% 6.4% 0.6% 15.7%

Opinion poll sources
  1. "NDP Takes Lead for First Time Since 2016 | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  2. "Provincial Spotlight: As pandemic wears on, governments losing support on economic, COVID-19 management". Angus Reid Institute. 2020-12-10. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  3. "Provincial PCs See Uptick in Support | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  4. "Comfortable PC lead narrows in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. 2020-09-02. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  5. "Tories have comfortable lead over NDP in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. 2020-07-24. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  6. "PCs, NDP In Statistical Dead Heat | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  7. "Provincial Spotlight: COVID-19 creates comfort zone for incumbent governments coast to coast". Angus Reid Institute. 2020-06-08. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  8. "Provincial Party Support Remains Steady | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  9. Robertson, Dylan (2019-12-27). "Dec 2019: NDP gains traction after PC re-election". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
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