31st Alberta general election

The 31st Alberta general election will be held in Alberta, Canada, to elect the members of the Legislative Assembly of Alberta. According to Alberta's Election Act, it must be held between March 1, 2023, and May 31, 2023, but that does not affect the powers of the Lieutenant Governor of Alberta to dissolve the legislature before that time, in accordance with the usual conventions of the Westminster parliamentary system.

31st Alberta general election
On or before May 31, 2023 (On or before May 31, 2023)
All 87 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Alberta
44 seats needed for a majority
 
AP
Leader Jason Kenney Rachel Notley Jacquie Fenske
Party United Conservative New Democratic Alberta Party
Leader since October 28, 2017 October 18, 2014 February 10, 2020
(Interim until TBD)
Leader's seat Calgary-Lougheed Edmonton-Strathcona No seat
Last election 63 seats, 54.88% 24 seats, 32.67% 0 seats, 9.08%
Current seats 62 24 0
Seats needed 20 44
Incumbent Premier

Jason Kenney
United Conservative

Timeline

2019

2020

2021
  • January 4: Six UCP MLAs are demoted by Jason Kenny for travelling internationally durning the COVID-19 pandemic.[10]
  • January 14: Pat Rehn is removed from the UCP caucus to sit as an independent. Jason Kenny cited a lack of constituency work as the reason for the removal.[11]


Opinion polling
Voting Intentions in Alberta since the 2019 Election

The following is a list of scientific opinion polls of published voter intentions.

Pollster Client Dates
conducted		 Sample
size		 Polling
method		 Margin
of error		 UCP NDP Alberta Liberal WIP Green IPA Others Lead
Mainstreet Research[p 1] Western Standard Jan 6–7, 2021 1,003 Smart IVR 3.1% 31% 48% 4% 3% 10% 2% — 2% 17%
Research Co.[p 2] N/A Dec 2–4, 2020 600 Online 4% 40% 43% 9% 2% 2% 2% — — 3%
Angus Reid[p 3] N/A Nov 24–30, 2020 553 Online 1.4% 43% 39% 10% — — — — 8% 4%
Environics Research[p 4] CUPE Nov 10–23, 2020 1,205 — — 40% 47% 8% — — — — 5% 7%
Angus Reid[p 5] N/A Aug 26–Sep 1, 2020 512 Online 4% 38% 38% 9% — — — 7% 8% Tie
Innovative Research Group[p 6] N/A Jul 14–20, 2020 300 Online — 42% 32% 9% 12% — 3% — 3% 10%
Innovative Research Group[p 7] N/A Jun 19–Jun 23, 2020 267 Online — 44% 38% 5% 6% — 3% — 3% 6%
Innovative Research Groupp[p 8] N/A May 29–Jun 1, 2020 276 Online — 42% 28% 11% 14% — 3% — 2% 14%
Janet Brown Opinion Research[p 9] CBC May 25–Jun 1, 2020 900 Online 3.3% 46% 36% 10% 6% — — — 3% 10%
Angus Reid[p 10] N/A May 19–24, 2020 580 Online 1.4% 42% 36% 5% — — — 8% 8% 6%
Northwest Research Poll[p 11] Western Standard May 14–19, 2020 1,094 IVR 3% 40% 34% 8% 7% 10% 1% — — 6%
Innovative Research Group[p 12] N/A May 1–5, 2020 314 Online — 45% 30% 6% 8% — 7% — 2% 15%
Angus Reid[p 13] N/A Feb 24–28, 2020 555 Online — 40% 36% 8% — — — 9% 7% 4%
Mainstreet Research[p 14] 338Canada Feb 22, 2020 751 IVR 4% 47% 38% 6% 4% — — — 5% 9%
Stratcom[p 15] N/A Nov 21, 2019 1,798 IVR 2.2% 42% 46% — — — — — 12% 4%
2019 general election Apr 16, 2019 — — — 54.9% 32.7% 9.1% 1.0% — 0.4% 0.7% 1.2% 22.2%

Opinion poll sources
  1. Naylor, Dave (January 8, 2021). "EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows UCP collapse as NDP & Wildrose surge". The Western Standard. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  2. Canseco, Mario (December 7, 2020). "Opposition NDP Edges Ahead of Governing UCP in Alberta". Research Co. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  3. "Provincial Spotlight: As pandemic wears on, governments losing support on economic, COVID-19 management". Angus Reid Institute. December 10, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  4. "Albertans ready to change government". CUPE Alberta. November 26, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  5. "Alberta Spotlight: As dissatisfaction with UCP intensifies, voters say they're ready to take another look at the NDP". Angus Reid Institute. September 14, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  6. "Alberta Politics in the time of COVID-19: July 2020 Update" (PDF). Innovative Research Group. July 29, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  7. "Canada This Month, National Political Overview" (PDF). Innovative Research Group. June 26, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  8. "Canada This Month, National Political Overview" (PDF). Innovative Research Group. June 4, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  9. "CBC News poll: Kenney, UCP would handily win election if held now | CBC News". CBC. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  10. "Provincial Spotlight: COVID-19 creates comfort zone for incumbent governments coast to coast". Angus Reid Institute. June 8, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  11. Naylor, Dave (May 28, 2020). "POLL: UCP 40, NDP, 34, WIP 10". The Western Standard. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  12. "Canada This Month, Federal Politics" (PDF). Innovative Research Group. May 6, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  13. "Provincial Spotlight: A cross-country breakdown of what issues matter most and government performance ratings". Angus Reid Institute. March 13, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  14. "338Canada: Jason Kenney still holds a commanding lead in Alberta - Macleans.ca". www.macleans.ca. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  15. Polling Canada (December 20, 2019). "Alberta Provincial Polling". Twitter. Retrieved January 13, 2021.


References
  1. "Jason Kenney sworn in as 18th premier of Alberta, names his UCP cabinet". thestar.com. April 30, 2019. Retrieved August 28, 2020.
  2. "Derek Fildebrandt resigns as leader of upstart Freedom Conservative Party". Calgary Herald. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
  3. June 28; 2019. "Alberta Party leader Stephen Mandel steps down to pursue his role as Chancellor at Concordia University". Alberta Party. Retrieved August 27, 2020.CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  4. "Green Party Leader Steps Down, Interim Leader Appointed". Green Party of Alberta. September 4, 2019. Retrieved August 28, 2020.
  5. February 10; 2020. "Acting Leader Appointed - Welcome Jacquie Fenske". Alberta Party. Retrieved August 27, 2020.CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  6. "Jordan Wilkie Elected Leader of the Green Party Of Alberta". Green Party of Alberta. March 28, 2020. Archived from the original on April 25, 2020. Retrieved April 25, 2020.
  7. Labby, Bryan (June 30, 2020). "Wexit Alberta and Freedom Conservative Party vote to merge as Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta". CBC News. Retrieved August 27, 2020.
  8. Gilligan, Melissa (July 17, 2020). "Paul Hinman named interim leader of Alberta's new Wildrose Independence Party". Global News. Retrieved July 18, 2020.
  9. Rieger, Sarah (November 22, 2020). "Alberta Liberal Leader David Khan steps down". CBC. Retrieved December 1, 2020.
  10. Antoneshyn, Alex (January 4, 2021). "6 Alberta government members demoted amid international travel controversy". CTV News Edmonton. Retrieved January 24, 2021.
  11. "Premier Jason Kenney removes MLA Pat Rehn from UCP caucus". Global News. Retrieved January 14, 2021.

Footnotes
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