2011 Manitoba general election

The 2011 Manitoba general election was held to elect Members of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. It took place on October 4, 2011, due to the new fixed-date election laws. In the outgoing legislature, the New Democratic Party of Manitoba (NDP) held 37 of the 57 seats, the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba (PC Party) held 19 of the 57 seats and the Liberal Party of Manitoba held one of the 57 seats, after Kevin Lamoureux resigned his seat in the riding of Inkster to run as a Liberal candidate in a federal by-election.[1]

2011 Manitoba general election

October 4, 2011 (2011-10-04)

57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Greg Selinger Hugh McFadyen Jon Gerrard
Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative Liberal
Leader since October 17, 2009 April 29, 2006 October 17, 1998
Leader's seat St. Boniface Fort Whyte River Heights
Last election 36 seats, 48.00% 19 seats, 37.89% 2 seats, 12.39%
Seats won 37 19 1
Seat change 1 0 1
Popular vote 199,066 188,528 32,420
Percentage 46.16% 43.71% 7.52%
Swing 1.84% 5.97% 4.60%

Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding.

Premier before election

Greg Selinger
New Democratic

Premier after election

Greg Selinger
New Democratic

Following the last census, electoral district boundaries were adjusted. There are 57 electoral districts.

Despite being perceived as a tight race in the run-up to voting, with The Globe and Mail expecting it to be the "closest in more than a decade",[2] the NDP won its fourth consecutive term in government, taking 37 seats, an improvement of one from the 2007 election – thus gaining their largest majority ever in the Assembly – whilst the Progressive Conservatives failed to make any gains beyond closing the gap in the popular vote, and not a single incumbent was defeated.[3] The PC leader Hugh McFadyen announced shortly thereafter that he would resign his post. Also facing a disappointing result in the election, Liberal leader Jon Gerrard also announced shortly after the election that he would resign his post once the party crowned a new leader in 2013.[4]

Party leadership

The Green Party and the NDP have chosen new leaders since the last general election.

On August 27, 2009 Premier Gary Doer, after being Premier of Manitoba for ten years announced his resignation as Premier and leader of the NDP. The following day he was appointed Canada's Ambassador to the United States.[5][6]

Three candidates entered the campaign to replace Doer: Steve Ashton, Greg Selinger and Andrew Swan. On September 28, 2009, Swan bowed out of the race and endorsed Selinger. Some pundits believe this was an attempt to stop Steve Ashton from becoming leader.[7]

Ashton, first seen as a minor candidate, ended up being a heavy-weight and, gaining momentum, scored big victories in some ridings, however it wasn't enough to convince many MLAs or win union endorsement. Selinger won the leadership election on October 17, 2009 with 65.75% of the ballot. His victory was achieved in large part by being backed by unions and the vast majority of the party elite.[6][8]

2009 New Democratic Party of Manitoba leadership election
Candidate Votes Percentage
Greg Selinger 1,317 65.75%
Steve Ashton 685 34.20%
Spoiled ballots 1 0.05%
Total 2,003 100.00%

The Green Party elected James Beddome to a two-year term party leader on November 15, 2008, defeating incumbent Andrew Basham and third candidate Shane Nestruck. After his victory, he said that he would work toward running a full slate of candidates in the next provincial election. He was the party's candidate for a by-election in the northeast Winnipeg division of Elmwood in early 2009.

Election summary

Summary of the October 4, 2011 Manitoba Legislature election

Party Party leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2007 Dissol. 2011 % Change # % % Change
  New Democratic Greg Selinger 57 36 36 37 +2.78% 199,069 46.16 −1.84
  Progressive Conservative Hugh McFadyen 57 19 18 19 0.00% 188,535 43.71 +5.97
  Liberal Jon Gerrard 57 2 1 1 −50.00% 32,418 7.52 −4.60
Green James Beddome 32 0 0 0 10,886 2.52 +1.18
Communist Darrell Rankin 4 0 0 0 179 0.04 -0.05
  Independent 1 0 0 0 215 0.05 -0.25
  Vacant 2
Total Valid Votes 208 57 57 57 431,302 55.77% -0.98%
Popular vote
New Democratic
46.16%
PC
43.71%
Liberal
7.52%
Green
2.52%
Others
0.09%
Seat Count
New Democratic
64.91%
PC
33.33%
Liberal
1.75%

Turnout

Of 777,054 registered voters, 55.77% or 433,346 cast votes in the election.[9] Although this is slightly lower than the 2007 election, voter turnout in Manitoba has generally declined since the mid-1970s when it reached 78.3% in the 1973 general election.[10] About 78,500 voters took advantage of advance polls, more than any previous election.[11]

Marginal seats

The following is a list of the ten ridings most narrowly lost by the indicated party in the 2007 election (by percentage of the vote the indicated party lost by).

New boundaries are in effect for the 2011 election, so some ridings not listed may come into place in the next election with population movements.

New Democratic Progressive Conservative
  1. River East (PC), 0.56% (held)
  2. Brandon West (PC), 0.56% (held)
  3. Portage la Prairie (PC), 5.91% (held)
  1. Kirkfield Park (NDP), 11.22% (held)
  2. Southdale (NDP), 11.30% (held)
  3. Dauphin-Roblin (NDP), 12.12% (held)
  4. La Verendrye (NDP), 12.47% (won)
Liberal Green
  1. Fort Rouge (NDP), 16.44% (held)
  1. Wolseley (NDP), 51.82% (held)

Incumbents not contesting their seats

Retiring incumbents

New Democrats
Progressives Conservatives

Resigned

Liberals

Election campaign

Election signs for the major parties in the riding of The Maples.

Bipole III

Manitoba Hydro planned an alternative hydro-electric transmission line to Bipole I and II routes running through the Interlake region in Manitoba. Initially it planned a more easterly route to the east of Lake Winnipeg. The NDP ignored the expert opinion of Manitoba Hydro and decided to build the line on the west side of the province at a cost of $4.1 billion. Further, the NDP proposed the creation of a large UNESCO environmental heritage site named Pimachiowin Aki. Just days before his retirement as premier, Doer announced that the government would donate $10 million to the trust fund for UNESCO World Heritage site on the east side of Lake Winnipeg.[24] The NDP claimed that an east side Bipole III route would jeopardise the UNESCO site and claimed that a heritage site would benefit First Nations communities more.[25] The NDP proposed a longer, more expensive, alternative route through the west of Manitoba to preserve the environmental integrity of the east side. Subject to the Environmental Impact Statement to be completed in June 2011, the construction of the line will begin in the winter of 2012, one year after the election.[26]

Progressive Conservative leader Hugh McFadyen opposes the western route stating that it would cost $1 billion to $1.75 billion more, it would destroy more trees, 15 out of 16 First Nations believed the Bipole III would be more economically beneficial, and would be more at risk from disasters as the Bipole lines in the Interlake.[25] McFadyen promised that if elected he would cancel the western route, and build it down the east side.[27] McFadyen also supported the UNESCO site on the east side and claims that Bipole III would not jeopardise the World Heritage Site.[24][25]

Liberal leader Jon Gerrard proposed that instead of building the line down the east or west, Manitoba Hydro should put the cable under Lake Winnipeg as proposed by Dr. John Ryan, retired University of Winnipeg professor in 2008.[28] In the fall of 2010 Gerrard asked Manitoba Hydro CEO Bob Brennan if he had inquired into the Lake Winnipeg route. Brennan said that he had not. Gerrard promised to build the line through Lake Winnipeg if elected.[29]

Opinion polls

Polling Firm Date of Polling Link NDP PC Liberal Green Other
Angus Reid Public Opinion September 30 – October 2, 2011 PDF 46 43 8 3 0
Probe Research Inc September 21–28, 2011 PDF 46 43 7 4
Environics September 26, 2011 HTML 42 45 10
Viewpoints Research September 14–21, 2011 HTML 41 32 5
Probe Research Inc June 29, 2011 PDF 44 44 9 3
Probe Research Inc March 23, 2011 PDF 35 47 14 4
Probe Research Inc November 25–Dec. 12, 2010 PDF 38 42 15 5
Angus Reid Public Opinion November 7–15, 2010 PDF 37 46 13 4 1
Probe Research Inc September 30, 2010 PDF 40 42 12 6
Angus Reid Public Opinion September 21, 2010 PDF 34 49 12 4 1
Viewpoints Research September 15, 2010 HTML 39 38 14 8 1
Probe Research Inc July 3, 2010 PDF 41 40 13 6
Angus Reid Public Opinion June 10, 2010 PDF 36 48 12 3 1
Probe Research Inc March 29, 2010 PDF 42 39 11 8 0
Angus Reid Public Opinion March 18, 2010 PDF 37 44 13 3 3
Probe Research Inc December 2009 PDF 47 37 11 4 1
Probe Research Inc September 2009 PDF 45 38 12 5
Probe Research Inc July 2009 PDF 45 36 14 5
Environics June 2009 43 35 22
Environics April 2009 49 37 12 2
Probe Research Inc March 2009 PDF 46 36 13 5
Probe Research Inc December 2008 PDF 41 43 10 6
Probe Research Inc September 2008 PDF 43 39 13 5
Probe Research Inc June 2008 PDF 46 36 13 5
Probe Research Inc March 2008 PDF 46 38 13 3
Election 2007 May 22, 2007

48.00%

37.89% 12.39% 1.34% 0.39%

Leadership approval rating

Polling Firm Date of Polling Link Greg Selinger Hugh McFadyen Jon Gerrard
Probe Research Inc July 3, 2010 49 41 35
Disapproval rating 22 26 29

Candidates by riding

  • Note that names in bold type represent Cabinet members, while italics represent party leaders.

Northern Manitoba

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
 NDP PC Liberal GreenOther
Flin Flon Clarence Pettersen
1,901 (57.10%)
Darcy Linklater
791 (23.76%)
Thomas Heine
510 (15.31%)
Saara Harvie
110 (3.30%)
Gerard Jennissen
Kewatinook Eric Robinson
2,043 (56.79%)
Michael Birch
1,389 (38.61%)
Orville Woodford
49 (1.36%)
Philip Green
94 (2.61%)
Eric Robinson
Swan River Ron Kostyshyn
4,280 (55.81%)
Dave Powell
3,078 (40.14%)
Reynald Cook
264 (3.44%)
Rosann Wowchuk
The Pas Frank Whitehead
2,995 (73.20%)
Alfred McDonald
959 (23.44%)
Girma Tessema
115 (2.81%)
Frank Whitehead
Thompson Steve Ashton
2,586 (68.19%)
Anita Campbell
1,068 (28.16%)
Ken Dillen
120 (3.16%)
Steve Ashton

Westman/Parkland

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
 NDP PC Liberal GreenOther
Agassiz Amity Sagness
1,058 (17.13%)
Stu Briese
4,390 (71.09%)
Gary Sallows
410 (6.64%)
Kate Storey
317 (5.13%)
New District
Arthur-Virden Garry Draper
2,274 (30.18%)
Larry Maguire
4,975 (66.03%)
Murray Cliff
286 (3.80%)
Larry Maguire
Brandon East Drew Caldwell
3,533 (54.77%)
Mike Waddell
2,513 (38.75%)
Shaun Cameron
280 (4.23%)
Vanda Fleury
158 (2.45%)
Drew Caldwell
Brandon West Jim Murray
4,073 (46.98%)
Reg Helwer
4,219 (48.66%)
George Buri
378 (4.36%)
Rick Borotsik
Dauphin Stan Struthers
4,470 (54.91%)
Lloyd McKinney
3,351 (41.17%)
Sisay Tessema
123 (1.51%)
Tamela Friesen
196 (2.41%)
New District
Riding Mountain Albert Parsons
2,604 (34.26%)
Leanne Rowat
4,461 (58.69%)
Carl Hyde
270 (3.55%)
Signe Knutson
266 (3.50%)
New District
Spruce Woods Cory Szczepanski
1,923 (28.58%)
Cliff Cullen
4,487 (66.69%)
Trenton Zazalak
318 (4.73%)


New District

Central Manitoba

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
 NDP PC Liberal GreenOther
Emerson Lorie Fiddler
1,082 (19.76%)
Cliff Graydon
3,983 (72.72%)
Micheline Belliveau
412 (7.52%)
Cliff Graydon
Gimli Peter Bjornson
5,004 (51.79%)
Jeff Wharton
4,154 (42.99%)
Lawrence Einarsson
195 (2.02%)
Glenda Whiteman
309 (3.20%)
Peter Bjornson
Interlake Tom Nevakshonoff
3,359 (50.47%)
Steve Lupky
2,899 (43.56%)
Albert Ratt
184 (2.76%)
John Zasitko
213 (3.20%)
Tom Nevakshonoff
Lakeside Rosemary Hnatiuk
1,956 (25.71%)
Ralph Eichler
5,036 (66.20%)
Jerald Funk
246 (3.23%)
Betty Kehler
369 (4.85%)
Ralph Eichler
Midland Jacqueline Theroux
1,746 (23.64%)
Blaine Pedersen
5,133 (69.50%)
Leah Jeffers
507 (6.86%)

New District
Morden-Winkler Aaron McDowell
656 (11.43%)
Cameron Friesen
4,912 (85.56%)
Daniel Woldeyohanis
173 (3.01%)

New District
Morris Mohamed Alli
1,480 (19.33%)
Mavis Taillieu
5,669 (74.06%)
Janelle Mailhot
506 (6.61%)
Mavis Taillieu
Portage la Prairie James Kostuchuk
2,689 (39.39%)
Ian Wishart
3,556 (52.24%)
Michelle Cudmore-Armstrong
571 (8.37%)
David Faurschou

Eastman

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
 NDP PC Liberal GreenOther
Dawson Trail Ron Lemieux
4,284 (52.51%)
Laurent Tetrault
3,554 (43.56%)
Sandra Hoskins
321 (3.93%)
New District
Lac du Bonnet Elana Spence
2,853 (36.74%)
Wayne Ewasko
4,266 (54.94%)
Charlett Millen
351 (4.52%)
Dan Green
295 (3.80%)
Vacant
La Verendrye Maurice Tallaire
1,823 (25.94%)
Dennis Smook
4,480 (63.75%)
Monica Guetre
372 (5.31%)
Janine Gibson
351 (5.00%)

Ron Lemieux
Steinbach Dally Gutierrez
487 (7.62%)
Kelvin Goertzen
5,469 (85.52%)
Lee Fehler
439 (6.86%)

Kelvin Goertzen
St. Paul Cynthia Ryan
3,479 (37.40%)
Ron Schuler
5,547 (59.63%)
Ludolf Grollé
276 (2.97%)
New District
Selkirk Greg Dewar
3,882 (56.35%)
David Bell
2,703 (39.24%)
Marilyn Courchene
304 (4.41%)
Greg Dewar

Northwest Winnipeg

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
 NDP PC Liberal GreenOther
Burrows Melanie Wight
3,063 (59.35%)
Rick Negrych
1,314 (25.58%)
Twyla Motkaluk
629 (12.18%)
Garett Peepeetch
124 (2.29%)
Frank Komarniski (CPC-M)
32 (0.61%)
Doug Martindale
Kildonan Dave Chomiak
4,808 (59.52%)
Darrell Penner
2,880 (35.65%)
Dimitrius Sagriotis
391 (4.83%)

Dave Chomiak
Point Douglas Kevin Chief
3,806 (73.50%)
John Vernaus
917 (17.95%)
Mary Lou Bourgeois
257 (4.51%)
Teresa Pun
176 (3.32%)
Darrell Rankin (CPC-M)
38 (0.71%)
George Hickes
St. Johns Gord Mackintosh
4,157 (65.93%)
Ray Larkin
1,405 (22.40%)
Trevor Mueller
348 (5.48%)
Alon Weinberg
392 (6.20%)
Gord Mackintosh
The Maples Mohinder Saran
3,894 (51.8%)
Jose Tomas
1,943 (25.9%)
Pablito Sarinas
1,395 (18.57%)
John Redekopp
281 (3.73%)
Mohinder Saran
Tyndall Park Ted Marcelino
2,596 (44.93%)
Cris Aglugub
908 (15.79%)
Roldan Sevillano
2,007 (34.94%)
Dean Koshelanyk
237 (4.34%)

New District

Northeast Winnipeg

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
 NDP PC Liberal GreenOther
Concordia Matt Wiebe
4,008 (62.72%)
Naseer Warraich
1,803 (28.21%)
Isaiah Oyeleru
237 (3.70%)
Ryan Poirier
308 (4.82%)
Matt Wiebe
Elmwood Jim Maloway
3,864 (54.14%)
David Hutten
2,399 (33.61%)
Anthony Dratowany
467 (6.54%)
Ray Eskritt
346 (4.84%)
Bill Blaikie
Radisson Bidhu Jha
5,033 (54.94%)
Desmond Penner
3,588 (39.17%)
Shirley Robert
506 (5.52%)
Bidhu Jha
River East Kurt Penner
4,512 (43.92%)
Bonnie Mitchelson
5,247 (51.07%)
Christopher Pelda
188 (1.83%)
Kelly Mitchell
274 (2.66%)
Bonnie Mitchelson
Rossmere Erna Braun
5,392 (56.37%)
Kaur Sidhu
3,430 (35.86%)
Rene Belliveau
356 (3.72%)
Evan Maydaniuk
351 (3.67%)
Erna Braun
St. Boniface Greg Selinger
5,914 (68.56%)
Frank Clark
1,537 (17.82%)
Brad Gross
606 (7.02%)
Alain Landry
530 (6.14%)
Greg Selinger
Transcona Daryl Reid
4,488 (57.92%)
Craig Stapon
2,668 (34.43%)
Faye McLeod-Jashyn
551 (7.11%)
Daryl Reid

West Winnipeg

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
 NDP PC Liberal GreenOther
Assiniboia Jim Rondeau
5,093 (58.22%)
Susan Auch
3,258 (37.24%)
Moe Bokhari
194 (2.22%)
Anlina Sheng
203 (2.32%)
Jim Rondeau
Charleswood Paul Beckta
2,597 (30.05%)
Myrna Driedger
4,826 (55.84%)
Matthew Ostrove
751 (8.69%)
Dirk Hoeppner
469 (5.83%)
Myrna Driedger
Kirkfield Park Sharon Blady
4,900 (46.80%)
Kelly de Groot
4,871 (46.52%)
Syed Bokhari
363 (3.47%)
Alanna Gray
337 (3.22%)
Sharon Blady
St. James Deanne Crothers
4,411 (49.75%)
Scott Gillingham
3,403 (38.38%)
Gerard Allard
679 (7.66%)
Trevor Vandale
374 (4.22%)
Bonnie Korzeniowski
Tuxedo Dashi Zargani
2,319 (25.35%)
Heather Stefanson
4,829 (52.79%)
Linda Minuk
1,509 (16.5%)
Donald Benham
491 (5.36%)
Heather Stefanson

Central Winnipeg

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
 NDP PC Liberal GreenOther
Fort Garry-Riverview James Allum
5,137 (55.52%)
Ian Rabb
3,054 (33.01%)
Kevin Freedman
663 (7.17%)
Daniel Backé
398 (4.30%)
New District
Fort Rouge Jennifer Howard
4,493 (51.27%)
Sonny Dominique
1,767 (20.16%)
Paul Hesse
2,026 (23.12%)
Stephen Weedon
477 (5.44%)

Jennifer Howard
Logan Flor Marcelino
2,943 (58.91%)
Tyrone Krawetz
838 (16.77%)
Joe Chan
845 (16.91%)
Kristen Andrews
324 (6.49%)
David Tymoshchuk (CPC-M)
46 (0.92%)
New District
Minto Andrew Swan
3,569 (66.26%)
Belinda Squance
830 (15.41%)
Don Woodstock
602 (11.18%)
Harold Dyck
330 (6.13%)
Cheryl-Anne Carr (CPC-M)
55 (1.02%)
Andrew Swan
River Heights Dan Manning
1,835 (17.76%)
Marty Morantz
3,384 (32.76%)
Jon Gerrard
4,742 (45.91%)
Elizabeth May Cameron
369 (3.57%)
Jon Gerrard
Wolseley Rob Altemeyer
4,193 (60.68%)
Harpreet Turka
847 (12.26%)
Eric Stewart
506 (7.32%)
James Beddome
1,364 (19.74%)
Rob Altemeyer

South Winnipeg

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
 NDP PC Liberal GreenOther
Fort Richmond Kerri Irvin-Ross
4,026 (53.15%)
Shaun McCaffrey
2,908 (38.39%)
Dustin Hiles
369 (4.87%)
Caitlin McIntyre
226 (2.98%)
New District
Fort Whyte Sunny Dhaliwal
2,655 (29.49%)
Hugh McFadyen
5,594 (62.13%)
Chae Tsai
710 (7.88%)
Hugh McFadyen
Riel Christine Melnick
5,352 (54.69%)
Rochelle Squires
3,916 (40.01%)
Cheryl Gilarski
480 (4.90%)
Christine Melnick
Seine River Theresa Oswald
5,500 (52.88%)
Gord Steeves
4,569 (43.93%)
Troy Osiname
295 (2.83%)
Theresa Oswald
Southdale Erin Selby
5,662 (51.84%)
Judy Eastman
4,898 (44.84%)
Amarjit Singh
327 (2.99%)
Erin Selby
St. Norbert Dave Gaudreau
3,966 (44.94%)
Karen Velthuys
3,935 (44.58%)
Marcel Laurendeau
883 (10.00%)
Marilyn Brick
St. Vital Nancy Allan
5,023 (59.80%)
Mike Brown
2,876 (34.24%)
Harry Wolbert
461 (5.48%)
Nancy Allan

By-elections since 2011

Manitoba provincial by-election, April 22, 2015: The Pas
Party Candidate Votes%±%Expenditures
New DemocraticAmanda Lathlin1,55756.47-16.74
  Progressive Conservative Jacob Nasekapow 817 29.63 +6.18
LiberalInez Vystrcil-Spence36913.38+10.56
Total valid votes 2,743 100.00
Rejected and declined votes 14
Turnout 2,757 22.10
Electors on the lists 12,475
New Democratic hold Swing
Manitoba provincial by-election, January 28, 2014: Arthur-Virden
Party Candidate Votes%±%Expenditures
  Progressive Conservative Doyle Piwniuk 3,137 68.20 +2.23
LiberalFloyd Buhler73816.04+12.23
New DemocraticBob Senff48010.43-19.78
GreenKate Storey2455.33
Total valid votes 4,600 100.00
Rejected and declined votes 10
Turnout 4,610 33.55
Electors on the lists 13,739
Progressive Conservative hold Swing -5.00
Manitoba provincial by-election, January 28, 2014: Morris
Party Candidate Votes%±%Expenditures
  Progressive Conservative Shannon Martin 2,642 69.99 -4.01
New DemocraticDean Harder48812.93-6.44
LiberalJeremy Barber42211.18+4.55
  Independent Ray Shaw 138 3.66 -
GreenAlain Landry852.25-
Total valid votes 3,775
Rejected and declined votes 17
Turnout 3,792 27.51
Electors on the lists 13,782
Progressive Conservative hold Swing +1.21
Manitoba provincial by-election, September 4, 2012
Resignation of Hugh McFadyen: Fort Whyte
Party Candidate Votes%±%
Progressive ConservativeBrian Pallister3,62655.14-6.99
LiberalBob Axworthy2,06931.47+23.59
New DemocraticBonny Schmidt73911.24-18.25
GreenDonnie H.J Benham1131.73+1.73
IndependentDarrell Ackman190.03+0.03
Spoiled/rejected votes 10 * *
turnout 41.64 * *
Total valid votes 6,576100.00 [30]

References

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  25. Ethan Cable (November 25, 2009). "West-side line is a $1.4 billion mistake, critics say". The Uniter. Retrieved November 25, 2010.
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  27. Larry Kusch (November 8, 2010). "McFadyen vows to put end to hydro line down west side". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved November 25, 2010.
  28. Dr. John Ryan (February 9–11, 2010). "Proposal for a Manitoba Hydro Cable under Lake Winnipeg". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved November 25, 2010.
  29. Ross Romaniuk (August 3, 2010). "Go under lake: Grit". Winnipeg Sun. Retrieved November 25, 2010.
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