Opinion polling for the 2019 Canadian federal election, by constituency

Various polling organizations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2019 Canadian federal election. The results of publicized opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.

Opinion polls have been conducted from the months following the previous general election held in October 2015, and have increased in frequency leading up to the October 2019 general election.

Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.

Constituency polls

Edmonton Mill Woods

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 16, 2019HTML32.640.613.59.03.80.7±3.93 pp623IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML41.241.012.72.201.1±0.0 pp49,744Election

Edmonton Strathcona

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 20, 2019HTML 27.737.923.65.82.92.1±4.00 pp623IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML20.731.243.92.3-0.5±0.0 pp55,821Election

Burnaby South

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
2019 By-electionFebruary 25, 2019HTML26.0222.6338.90010.651.80±0.0 pp22,746Election
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 10, 2019HTML26.322.038.808.74.2±3.6 pp740IVR
Mainstreet ResearchNovember 11, 2018HTML35.929.327.26.11.00.5±5.12 pp366IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML342735301±0.0 pp46,162Election

Fleetwood—Port Kells

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 29, 2019HTML39.738.07.27.15.30±3.83 pp654IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML462921200±0.0 pp49,302Election

Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 25, 2019HTML24.438.510.114.64.50±3.47 pp796IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML30.435.230.73.5-0±0.0 pp69,939Election

Vancouver East

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 29, 2019HTML25.316.337.015.92.0 -±3.02 pp624IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML2811509--±0.0 pp59,113Election

Vancouver Granville

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Wilson-Raybould Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 15, 2019HTML28.322.3---32.8-±3.94 pp620IVR[6]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 24, 2019HTML30.223.37.76.50.926.9-±4.03 pp592IVR[6]
Justason MarketingSeptember 5, 2019PDF2715612-37-±5.1 pp361IVR
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 28, 2019Twitter40.318.49.210.23.8-17.6±4.4 pp493IVR[5]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 28, 2019Twitter31.917.17.910.43.928.8-±4.4 pp493IVR[6]
Mainstreet ResearchMay 30, 2019PDF29.219.98.410.2032.30±4.79 pp418IVR
Justason MarketingApril 5, 2019PDF24142300337±7 pp195IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML4426273000±0.0 pp54,010Election

Victoria

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 10, 2019Twitter27.117.222.228.33.50±4.1 pp575IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML11.811.742.832.901±0.0 pp72,136Election

Elmwood—Transcona

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 24, 2019HTML 26.041.020.18.81.60±3.94 pp617IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML29.534.034.12.3--±0.0 pp43,268Election

Central Nova

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 20, 2019HTML41.038.38.711.10.7-±4.46 pp598IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML58.525.810.24.101.2±0.0 pp44,496Election

Cumberland—Colchester

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 26, 2019HTML39.035.84.515.11.8-±3.47 pp616IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML63265300±0.0 pp46,510Election

Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 14, 2019HTML38.926.714.317.12.40.6±4.46pp452IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML481534300±0.0 pp48,451Election

Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 20, 2019HTML31.639.78.015.33.7-±3.94 pp620IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML41.541.710.25.200.7±0.0 pp50,716Election

Chatham—Kent-Leamington

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 22, 2019HTML34.849.49.82.21.7-±4.58 pp458IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML37.241.718.32.600±0.0 pp52,234Election

Durham

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 20, 2019HTML35.443.18.56.74.3-±3.94 pp620IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML35.745.116.02.500.5±0.0 pp64,418Election

Guelph

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 30, 2019HTML44.121.96.223.33.8-±3.99 pp630IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML4926121101±0.0 pp54,682Election

Kitchener Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Oraclepoll ResearchOctober 8, 2019PDF43236262-±4.4 pp500IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML48.830.416.63.101.2±0.0 pp52,572Election

Markham—Stouffville

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green Philpott Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchMay 30, 2019PDF38.932.22.45.720.80±3.99 pp601IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML49436200±0.0 pp59,962Election

Milton

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 30, 2019HTML39.838.84.310.33.60±4.08 pp588IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML4045102-1±0.0 pp49,518Election

Niagara Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchJuly 16, 2019HTML43.731.317.15.61.21.2±4.46 pp482IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML363032201±0.0 pp54,682Election

Oakville

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchMay 30, 2019HTML48.335.43.08.33.50±3.99 pp602IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML49426200.4±0.0 pp64,704Election

Ottawa Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 15, 2019HTML45.622.715.711.32.7-±3.71 pp699IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML42.614.438.52.901.0±0.0 pp75,886Election

Scarborough Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 29, 2019HTML53.222.24.712.73.53.7N/A627IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML50.532.711.62.103.1±0.0 pp45,436Election

Simcoe North

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 20, 2019HTML36.139.65.515.32.11.5±3.77 pp674IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML39.843.510.54.601.5±0.0 pp57,260Election

Waterloo

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 20, 2019HTML49.523.78.813.52.7-±4.00 pp606IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML49.732.314.92.900.2±0.0 pp59,849Election

Whitby

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 22, 2019HTML39.739.16.28.73.90±3.96 pp611IVR
Mainstreet ResearchJuly 19, 2019HTML39.74151040.4±4.00 pp600IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML45.042.110.32.200.4±0.0 pp64,516Election

Windsor West

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 21, 2019HTML37.621.336.32.91.9-±4.53 pp468IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML25.220.851.32.300.3±0.0 pp86,166Election

Charlottetown

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 20, 2019HTML41.328.77.417.01.24.3±3.91 pp628IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML56.214.823.15.700±0.0 pp21,264Election

Beauce

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 9, 2019HTML1531213429-±3.9 pp625IVR
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 5, 2019HTML19.333.51.95.83.7331.8±3.87 pp640IVR
Mainstreet ResearchNovember 11, 2018HTML13.837.95.54.42.034.71.8±3.95 pp616IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML22591072N/A0±0.0 pp56,594Election

Beauport-Limoilou

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 30, 2019HTML303262073-±3.9 pp623IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML25.430.625.514.82.4N/A1.3±0.0 pp51,449Election

Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 12, 2019HTML31.120.4437.63.10.9-±3.66 pp716IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML24.311.422.140.02.3N/A-±0.0 pp53,163Election

Beloeil-Chambly

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 29, 2019HTML2591839622±3.97609IVR
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 3, 2019HTML35158269--- pp825IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML29.39.331.127.72.3N/A0.4±0.0 pp66,438Election

Berthier—Maskinongé

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 26, 2019HTML16.114.635.527.82.31.8 -±4.00 pp600IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML20.210.242.125.81.5--±0.0 pp55,250Election

Jonquière

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 9, 2019HTML14.920.324.734.22.52.0-±3.89 pp634IVR
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 14, 2019HTML2729131963-±3.55 pp674IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML28.516.929.223.31.4-0.8±0.0 pp49,002Election

Laurier—Sainte-Marie

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 16, 2019HTML352164032-±3.9 pp628IVR
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 3, 2019HTML41.03.712.826.88.44.0-±3.95 pp615IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML23438283-1±0.0 pp66,438Election

Longueuil—Saint-Hubert

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 29, 2019HTML35.09.05.028.017.03.0-±4 pp556IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML30.08.731.227.32.5-0.3±0.0 pp59,138Election

Louis-Hébert

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 3, 2019HTML401951984-3.3 pp864IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML34.927.220.814.42.5-0.2±0.0 pp61,744Election

Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 5, 2019HTML23.629.3828.964-±4 pp586IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML28.429.024.216.11.7-0.6±0.0 pp50,020Election

Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 13, 2019HTML2248412742±3.5 pp625IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML21.544.022.110.71.8-0±0.0 pp62,059Election

Québec

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 19, 2019HTML39178276
Mainstreet ResearchJuly 24, 2019HTML33.125.28.121.47.731.6±3.7 pp684IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML29222719301±0.0 pp54,687Election

Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 1, 2019HTML226.135.4266.22.61.6±3.96 pp613IVR
2015 ElectionOctober 19, 2015HTML20.74.349.221.13.101.7±0.0 pp54,349Election

Notes

Notes

1 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error.[1] In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.[2]
2 Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters.
3 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey.
4 Election Results shown for 2011 are the redistributed results for the 2015 districts. These are fixed until 2023 under the present federal electoral system. About 80% of the 308 districts defined in 2003 changed their borders or are entirely new: 338 districts were defined in 2015.
5 Naming party only.
6 Naming candidates.

References

  1. "MRIA Responds to "Evaluating the Polls: An Open Letter to Ontario's Journalists"". Marketing Research and Intelligence Association. September 16, 2011. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
  2. American Association for Public Opinion Research (undated), Best Practices for Survey and Public Opinion Research Archived November 30, 2014, at the Wayback Machine, retrieved October 17, 2012
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.