Climate change in China

Climate change in China is having major effects on the economy, society and the environment.[1] China is the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions, through an energy infrastructure heavily focused on fossil fuels and coal. Also, other industries, such as a burgeoning construction industry and industrial manufacturing contribute heavily to carbon emissions. However, like other developing countries, on a per-capita basis, China's carbon emissions were considerably less that countries like the United States: as of 2016, they were the 51st most per capita emitter.[2]

This article is about the effects of global warming on the east Asian country and adaptation to it. For gases which contribute to global warming, and their mitigation, see Greenhouse gas emissions by China.

China Greenhouse emission of gas from 1990 - 2016

China is suffering from negative effects of global warming in agriculture, forestry and water resources, and is expected to continue to see increased impacts. China's government is taking some measures to increase renewable energy, and other decarbonization efforts, vowing to be carbon neutral by 2060 by adopting “more vigorous policies and measures.”[3]

Effects of climate change

China has and will suffer some of the effects of global warming, including sea level rise, glacier retreat and air pollution.

China's first National Assessment of Global Climate Change, released in the 2000s by the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST), states that China already suffers from the environmental impacts of climate change: increase of surface and ocean temperature, rise of sea level.[4] Qin Dahe, former head of China's Meteorological Administration, has said that temperatures in the Tibetan Plateau of China are rising four times faster than anywhere else.[5] Rising sea level is an alarming trend because China has a very long and densely populated coastline, with some of the most economically developed cities such as Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou situated there. Chinese research has estimated that a one-meter rise in sea level would inundate 92,000 square kilometers of China's coast, thereby displacing 67 million people.[6]

Changing weather and water

There has also been an increased occurrence of climate-related disasters such as drought and flood, and the amplitude is growing. These events have grave consequences for productivity when they occur, and also create serious repercussions for the natural environment and infrastructure. This threatens the lives of billions and aggravates poverty.

China observed a ground average temperature increase of 0.24℃/decade from 1951 to 2017, exceeding the global rate. The average precipitation of China was 641.3  mm in 2017, 1.8% more than the average precipitation of previous years. The sea level rise was 3.3mm/year from 1980 to 2017. There was an annual increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide from 1990 to 2016. The annual mean concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide at Wanliguan Station were 404.4 ppm, 1907 ppb, and 329.7 ppb separately in 2016, slightly higher than the global mean concentration in 2016.[7]

Furthermore, climate change will worsen the uneven distribution of water resources in China. Outstanding rises in temperature would exacerbate evapotranspiration, intensifying the risk of water shortage for agricultural production in the North. Although China's southern region has an abundance of rainfall, most of its water is lost due to flooding. As the Chinese government faces challenges managing its expanding population, an increased demand for water to support the nation's economic activity and people will burden the government. In essence, a water shortage is indeed a large concern for the country.[6]

Public health

Lastly, climate change could endanger human health by increasing outbreaks of disease and their transmission. After floods, for example, infectious diseases such as diarrhea and cholera are all far more prevalent. These effects would exacerbate the degradation of the ecologically fragile areas in which poor communities are concentrated pushing thousands back into poverty.[8]

Some regions in China will be exposed to a 50 percent higher malaria transmission probability rate (Béguin et al., 2011).[9]

Agriculture

The negative effects on China's agriculture caused by climate change have appeared. There was an increase in agricultural production instability, severe damages caused by high temperature and drought, and lower production and quality in the prairie. In the near future, climate change may cause negative influences, causing a reduction of output in wheat, rice, and corn, and change the agricultural distribution of production.[10] China is also dealing with agricultural issues due global demands of products such as soybeans. This global demand is causing coupled effects that stretch across oceans which in turn is affecting other countries. Environmental factor#Socioeconomic Drivers

Forest and other natural ecosystems

Climate change increases forest belt limits and frequencies of pests and diseases, decreases frozen earth areas, and threatens to decrease glacial areas in northwest China. The vulnerability of ecosystems may increase due to future climate change.[10]

Water resource and coastal zone

Climate change decreased total water resources in North China while increasing total water resources in South China. There were more floods, drought, and extreme weather events. There may be a big impact in the spatial and temporal distribution in China's water resources, increasing extreme weather events and natural disasters. Climate change caused an increase in sea level, threatening to impair the functions of harbors.[10]

  • Yellow Sea
  • Shanghai
  • Tianjin and Yingkou

Present and future Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps
Main article: Köppen climate classification
Köppen–Geiger climate classification map for China (1980-2016)
Köppen–Geiger climate classification map for China (2071-2100)

Energy
This section is an excerpt from Energy policy of China[edit]
The 22,500 MW Three Gorges Dam hydroelectric power plant in China, the largest hydroelectric power station in the world.
China's primary energy production and consumption 1980 to 2011

Ensuring adequate energy supply to sustain economic growth has been a core concern of the Chinese government since 1949.[11] The country is the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and coal in China is a major cause of global warming.[12] However, from 2010 to 2015 China reduced energy consumption per unit of GDP by 18%, and CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 20%.[13] On a per-capita basis, it was the world's 51st largest emitter of greenhouse gases in 2016.[14]

China is also the world's largest renewable energy producer.[15] China is the largest producer of hydroelectricity, solar power and wind power in the world.

Details for the power sector are likely to be released winter 2021/22 for the 14th five-year plan,[16] and this is expected to determine whether the country builds more coal-fired power stations, and thus perhaps whether global climate goals are met.[17]

Renewables
This section is an excerpt from Renewable energy in China[edit]
Panorama of Envision's wind farm in Shanxi, China
Solar power water heaters are very popular among middle sized cities in China.
Satellite picture of the Longyangxia Dam reservoir and solar power park.
Part of a series on
Renewable energy

China is the world's leading country in electricity production from renewable energy sources, with over double the generation of the second-ranking country, the United States. By the end of 2019, the country had a total capacity of 790GW [18][19] of renewable power, mainly from hydroelectric, solar and wind power. By the end of 2019, China's hydropower capacity reached 356 GW.[20] China's installed capacity of solar power reached 240 GW in 2020.[21] As of Q3 2020, China's wind power capacity was 224 GW.[22] China's renewable energy sector is growing faster than its fossil fuels and nuclear power capacity.

Although China currently has the world's largest installed capacity of hydro, solar and wind power, its energy needs are so large that in 2019, renewable sources provided 26% of its electricity generation[23] -- compared to 17% in the U.S.A.[24] -- with most of the remainder provided by coal power plants. In early 2020, renewable energy comprised about 40% of China's total installed electric power capacity, and 26% of total power generation -- with solar and wind combined having more capacity than hydropower.[25] Nevertheless, the share of renewable sources in the energy mix had been gradually rising in recent years.

China sees renewables as a source of energy security and not just only to reduce carbon emission.[26] China's Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Air Pollution issued by China's State Council in September 2013, illustrates the government's desire to increase the share of renewables in China's energy mix.[27] Unlike oil, coal and gas, the supplies of which are finite and subject to geopolitical tensions, renewable energy systems can be built and used wherever there is sufficient water, wind, and sun.[28]

As Chinese renewable manufacturing has grown, the costs of renewable energy technologies have dropped dramatically. Innovation has helped, but the main driver of reduced costs has been market expansion.[28] In 2015, China became the world's largest producer of photovoltaic power, with 43 GW of total installed capacity.[29][30] From 2005 to 2014, production of solar cells in China has expanded 100-fold.[28]

However, China is not expected to achieve grid parity – when an alternate source of energy is as cheap or cheaper than power purchased from the grid—until 2022.[31] In 2017, investments in renewable energy amounted to US$279.8 billion worldwide, with China accounting for US$126.6 billion or 45% of the global investments.[32]

Reactions

Public opinion

According to the Chinese citizen climate change recognition and understanding report[33] conducted by the China Climate Change Communication program, 94% of interviewees supported fulfilling the Paris agreement, 96.8% of interviewees supported international cooperation on global climate change, and more than 70% of interviewees were willing to purchase environmentally friendly products. 98.7% of interviewees supported implementing climate change education at schools. Respondents were most concerned about the air pollution caused by climate change. The investigation included 4025 samples.[33]

The investigation showed that Chinese citizens agreed that they were experiencing climate change, and that it was caused by human activities.[34]

Furthermore, most Chinese citizens believe individual action on climate change can help, although the government is still seen as the entity most responsible for dealing with climate change. If the government does take action, fiscal and taxation policies are seen as potentially effective.[35]

Government stance

Climate change has not been a priority to China until recently, when this issue was brought to a higher platform. Chinese state affairs operate as a central system, not a federal system. For example, the central government makes decisions and the local governments fulfill them. As a result, the local governments receive constraints and are measured by their performance from the central governments. Solving environmental issues such as climate change requires long-term investments in money, resources, and time. It is believed that these efforts will be detrimental to economic growth, which is of particular importance to the promotion of local government executives. This is why local governments have no engagement in addressing this issue.[36]

Attitudes of the Chinese government on climate change, specifically regarding the role of China in climate change action, have shifted notably in recent years. Historically, climate change was largely seen as a problem that has been created by and should be solved by industrialized countries; in 2015, China said it supports the "common but differentiated responsibilities" principle,[37] which holds that since China is still developing, its abilities and capacities to reduce emissions are comparatively lower than developed countries'.

Recently, the government has urged countries to continue to support the Paris agreement, even in the wake of the United States' withdrawal in 2017.[38]

On September 22, 2020, Chinese leader Xi Jinping announced at the UN General Assembly in New York that his country will end its contribution to global heating and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 by adopting “more vigorous policies and measures.”[3]

Policy action

In China's first NDC submission, key areas were identified for climate change adaptation, including agriculture, water resources, and vulnerable areas. It also mentioned that an adaptation strategy should be implemented through regional strategies. [39] Flooding in cities is being tackled by collecting and recycling rainwater.[40] In 2013, China issued its National Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation and set goals of reducing vulnerability, strengthening monitoring, and raising public awareness. Efforts on implementation have been put in adapting forestry, meteorological management, infrastructure, and risk planning. [41]

The development of technology and economy in China share more responsibility in tackling climate change. After facing the 2011 smog issue, China's government launched an extensive strategy, which is to improve air quality by reducing the growth of coal consumption. Nevertheless, the trade war that involved China as one of the leading participants has resulted in the loss of control of polluting industries, especially in the steel and cement during 2018. Fortunately, nearly 70 multinational and local brands implemented the monitoring data by The Institute of Public & Environmental Affairs (IPE) in China, stimulating nearly 8,000 suppliers approaching regulatory violations.[42]

Internally in the provinces of China, there are various projects held aiming to solve emissions reduction and energy-saving, which is a big step in tackling climate change. Beijing is developing in replacing traditional bulbs with energy-saving light bulbs. Provinces such as Rizhao and Dezhou are promoting solar energy in the building heating system. Besides, Tsinghua University launched a lead on low-carbon city development. The city is currently working with Tsinghua University to improve the urban environment by introducing renewable energy into industries and households.[43]

National carbon trading scheme
This section is an excerpt from Chinese national carbon trading scheme[edit]
The Chinese national carbon trading scheme is a cap and trade system for carbon dioxide emissions set to be implemented in the 2020s. This emission trading scheme (ETS) creates a carbon market where emitters can buy and sell emission credits. From this scheme, China can limit emissions, but allow economic freedom for emitters to reduce emissions or purchase emission allowances from other emitters. China is currently the largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) and many major Chinese cities have severe air pollution.[44] If fully implemented, China would be the largest market in carbon trading.[44] The scheme eventually plans to limit emissions from six of China's top carbon dioxide emitting industries, including coal-fired power plants.[45] China was able to gain experience in drafting and implementation of an ETS plan from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), where China was part of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).[44] From this experience with carbon markets, and lengthy discussions with the next largest carbon market, the European Union (EU), as well as analysis of small scale pilot markets in major Chinese cities and provinces, China's national ETS will be the largest of its kind and will help China achieve its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) from the Paris Agreement.[44]

See also

References
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