Climate change in Turkey

The 2011 National Action Plan on Climate Change said that the average annual temperature is estimated to rise by 2.5 °C to 4 °C.[16][17] Turkey is forecast to be more severely affected than many other countries,[18][19] and effects to vary considerably across the regions of the country.[20]

In May 2020 there were record high temperatures in many parts of the country.[21] The weather is becoming more extreme.[6] During the 21st century temperatures are forecast to rise by 2-3 °C on average and precipitation to significantly reduce.[22] However, as well as more droughts more floods are predicted, due to rain falling instead of snow.[23] The worst case is a 7 degree rise by 2100.[24]

Wildfires in Turkey have increased[25] due to climate change.[26]

Flash floods are predicted to become more frequent as here in Sinop

but the Büyük Menderes River, full in November 2007, may halve its average flow by 2100.

Another effect that might occur as a result of climate change is floods due to sudden rains. According to the international disaster database (EM-DAT), 1,350 people died because of floods between 1970 and 2014 in Turkey and about 2 million people were affected by those floods.[19] Droughts risk mosquito borne diseases.[27]

Urban heatwaves,[28] droughts,[29] storms,[30] and flooding,[31] may increase.[32]

Sea level rise is forecast to affect city infrastructure, for example Istanbul Kadıkoy metro station is threatened with flooding.[23]

Climate change is causing droughts.[33][34]

Climate models predict that extreme weather events will increase in the Mediterranean.[35]

The glacier on Mount Ararat will soon be gone

Glaciers in Turkey including the glaciers on Mount Ararat are retreating.[36]

2020 had a hotter December than before, and trees bloomed in Istanbul, which is not normal.[37]

There are concerns of bears in the Black Sea region not hibernating.[38]

Floods in 2020 caused billions of lira in damages.[39] In 2020, the expert on climate change, Murat Türkeş told Hürriyet newspaper: “We have the statistics, climate change and global warming have hit us. We face a loss of millions of dollars.[40] Even new great damages await,”. Loss in Gross Domestic Product per capita by 2100 is forecast to be less than 1% for slight global warming (RCP2.6 Scenario) but almost 8% for severe global warming (RCP8.5 Scenario).[41]

Agriculture and food production are predicted to be greatly affected after the 2030s. Irrigated agriculture in particular will decline as water stress increases. A significant decline in agricultural production is transmitted throughout the economy and reduces national welfare.[42]

Wheat may be severely affected

Unless global emissions are greatly reduced agriculture in Turkey, such as wheat,[43][44] is expected to be severely affected after the late 2030s especially in areas with rain fed agriculture.[45] Arid and semi-arid areas are at risk of desertification.[4] Irrigated agriculture will decline as water stress increases and increasing food imports will hit Turkey's trade balance.[45] Damage to agriculture [46] is predicted to greatly increase.[45] Pine nut production has been severely reduced.[47]

According to Professor Barış Karapınar, water is lost through evaporation due to old-fashioned irrigation techniques used by the Southeastern Anatolia Project, increasing the risk of severe water shortage.[48]

Reduced precipitation[49] and hydroelectricity in Turkey is forecast.[50]

Anchovies may no longer swim to Turkish waters.

The warming of Lake Van is reducing oxygen for pearl mullet.[51] According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, fishing-oriented sectors in the Black Sea Region of Turkey are argued to be sensitive to the impacts of climate change.[52]

(Note: include here impacts in cities, urban and rural environments)

Climate change may impact health in Turkey, for example due to increased heatwaves.[53]

A national strategy and action plan for adaptation to climate change was published in 2012,[54] but Turkey has yet to submit a National Adaptation Plan to the UNFCCC.[55]

In 2019 the OECD recommended that adaptation efforts be increased.[56] An international conference on local actions was held, and work on 12 regional adaptation plans continued.[57][58] Protection of water resources and soil quality was considered.[59] The Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning coordinates activities to combat climate change in Turkey.[54] The National Strategy on Climate Change (2010 / 2011-2020), developed under the coordination of the Ministry of the Environment and Urbanization, through an effective work process with the participation of public institutions, establishments of the private sector, non-governmental organizations and universities, was approved by the Superior Planning Council of the Prime ministry on May 3, 2010.[54] This national strategy and action plan for adaptation to climate change focuses on five important areas which are: Water resources management, Agricultural sector, and food security, Ecosystem services, biodiversity and forestry, natural disaster risk, and public health. They are supported by technical and scientific studies and participatory processes.[60]

National adaptation measures continue to progress since the publication of Turkey's sixth national communication in 2016. In its National Adaptation Policies and Strategies, progress has been made at the national level, in local administrations, and in different sectors. Indeed, the regulation on a strategic environmental assessment (SEA) came into force in 2017. In the strategic plans for the periods between 2013 and 2017 and between 2018 and 2022 of the Ministry of the Environment and Urbanization, climate change mitigation and adaptation activities are among the main strategic objectives, assisting municipalities and district authorities in their studies and carrying out various capacity building and support activities in adaptation to changing climate. While private and voluntary sector organizations make significant contributions to studies on adaptation to climate change, provinces and regions have recognized the need for adaptation and have made investments to support adaptation initiatives.[61]

As part of capacity building, education, and information dissemination, projects such as the project “Strengthening joint efforts required for climate action” were implemented in 2017. Also, thanks to a grant program of 37 other projects support the Ministry of the Environment and Urbanization with a vast training program, communication with climate-related stakeholders, awareness-raising activities as well as local actions on climate change in terms of a better response to climate problems are being achieved. For example, a “Climate Change Awareness Project” was carried out by Yıldırım Beyazıt University between 2015 and 2017 for students and teachers of primary and secondary schools operating within the Ministry of Education. [61]

Regarding implementations and actions, the impacts of climate change on surface water and groundwater for individual water basins have been identified, and adaptation activities have been determined. The implementation area of the project is 25 river basins covering the whole of Turkey, and the projection period covers the years 2015 to 2100. Many other projects like Increasing Storage Capacity ( Since the end of 2017, 1258 storage sites have been built and investments are being made. 727 dams are aimed to be completed by the end of 2023); Lake-Water Project; Basin Protection Action Plans; Transforming Basin Protection Action Plans to River Basin; Management Plans; Studies on Protecting Drinking Water Basins; Drought Management Studies; Saving Water in Irrigation; Distribution of Water Among Sectors have been built.[62]

To fight against climate change in agriculture studies done about adaptation to climate change with various applications like fighting agricultural drought, good agriculture applications, and organic agriculture. Many projects have been put into practice. We can cite: Turkey’s Strategy of Fighting Agricultural Drought and Action Plan (2018-2022); Agricultural Monitoring and Information (TARBIL) System; Agriculture and Rural Development Support Institution (TKDK); Agricultural Insurance Law; Developing Agricultural Publication Project (TAR-GEL); Studies of Fighting Erosion; Climate Change National Action Plan-Agriculture Sector. [63]

In addition, these projects, programs, and studies require a lot of funding. Turkey is already receiving international funding despite not having ratified the Paris Agreement. It was even revealed that Turkey was the fifth-largest recipient of multilateral climate funds between 2013 and 2016, receiving $231 million through channels such as the Clean Technology Fund (CTF) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF).[55]

Xeriscaping of green spaces in cities has been suggested,[64] and Istanbul has a climate change action plan.[65] However, according to a 2018 study by Trakya University more local climate change action plans need to be prepared urgently.[66]

In the 1990s independent media outlet Açık Radyo (Open Radio) was one of the first to cover climate change, and its founder Ömer Madra(in Turkish) emphasises "The three Y’s in the fight on climate change: Yerel (local) Yatay (horizontal, not vertical) and Yavaş (slow, no resort to violence)."[67] İklim Haber is another active source for the coverage of climate change issues for the readers in Turkey. They describe their operations as "focusing on latest developments from the areas of climate science, climate policy, and the economy of climate change by trying to publish the news objectively and data-oriented." [68]

The arts are raising awareness of climate change, and education is supported by the EU.[69][70]

Individual action on climate change is not properly understood (in a survey of primary school teachers many erroneously prioritised using less cosmetics) and neither are government choices on climate change mitigation (in the same survey only a minority correctly prioritised curbing fossil fuel use).[71] Future warming of seawater by Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant is wrongly thought by some to be relevant to climate change,[20] and few know that geothermal power in Turkey might emit considerable CO
2.[72]

In 2018, Turkish climate news hub İklim Haber and Turkey’s leading polling company Konda Research asserted that: "there is a wide public consensus about climate change (86%) and the majority (%75) of the population say that they are concerned about climate change. The research points out that Turkey’s energy sources of preference are solar and wind energy by a large margin." in the report of "Climate Change Perceptions and Energy Preferences in Turkey".[73] According to the latest report written in Turkish and prepared by another collaboration of İklim Haber and Konda Research in 2020, 51,5% of the public opinion believe that the climate crisis is a bigger threat than the Coronavirus crisis. Also, 71,4% of the public opinion acknowledge that current climate crisis is a result of human activities.[74]

In 2019 some Turkish schoolchildren joined the School strike for climate,[75] and Turkey's branch of Extinction Rebellion demonstrated for Turkey to ratify the Paris Agreement.[76]

Muslim environmentalists and academics quote the Quran in support of their environmentalism.[77] In Istanbul in 2015, Islamic leaders urged the world's 1.6 billion Muslims to help defeat climate change.[78][79]