Climate change vulnerability

Climate change vulnerability (frequently climate vulnerability or climate risk vulnerability ) is an assessment of vulnerability to anthropogenic climate change used in discussion of society's response to climate change, for processes like climate change adaptation, evaluations of climate risk or in determining climate justice concerns.

Climate vulnerability can include a wide variety of different meanings, situations and contexts in climate change research, but has been a central concept in academic research since 2005.[1] The concept was defined in the third IPCC report as "the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes" (p. 89).[2]

In line with system-level approach to vulnerability in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), most scholarship uses climate vulnerability to describe communities, economic systems or geographies.[3] However, the widespread impacts of climate change have led to the use of "climate vulnerability" to describe less systemic concerns, such as individual health vulnerability, vulnerable situations or other applications beyond impacted systems, such as describing the vulnerability of individual animal species.

Types of vulnerability

Negative impacts of climate change are those that are least capable of developing robust and comprehensive climate resiliency infrastructure and response systems. However what exactly constitutes a vulnerable community is still open to debate. The IPCC has defined vulnerability using three characteristics: the “adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure” to the effects of climate change. The adaptive capacity refers to a community's capacity to create resiliency infrastructure, while the sensitivity and exposure elements are both tied to economic and geographic elements that vary widely in differing communities. There are, however, many commonalities between vulnerable communities.[4]

Vulnerability can mainly be broken down into 2 major categories, economic vulnerability, based on socioeconomic factors, and geographic vulnerability. Neither are mutually exclusive.

Economic vulnerability
World gross national income per capita.

At its basic level, a community that is economically vulnerable is one that is ill-prepared for the effects of climate change because it lacks the needed financial resources. Preparing a climate resilient society will require huge investments in infrastructure, city planning, engineering sustainable energy sources, and preparedness systems. From a global perspective, it is more likely that people living at or below poverty will be affected the most by climate change and are thus the most vulnerable, because they will have the least amount of resource dollars to invest in resiliency infrastructure. They will also have the least amount of resource dollars for cleanup efforts after more frequently occurring natural climate change related disasters.[5]

Geographic vulnerability

A second definition of vulnerability relates to geographic vulnerability. The most geographically vulnerable locations to climate change are those that will be impacted by side effects of natural hazards, such as rising sea levels and by dramatic changes in ecosystem services, including access to food. Island nations are usually noted as more vulnerable but communities that rely heavily on a sustenance based lifestyle are also at greater risk.[6]

Abaco Islands- An example of a low elevation island community likely to be impacted by rising sea level associated with changing climate.

Roger E. Kasperson and Jeanne X. Kasperson of the Stockholm Environmental Institute compiled a list of vulnerable communities as having one or more of these characteristics.[7]

  • food insecure
  • water scarce
  • delicate marine ecosystem
  • fish dependent
  • small island community

Around the world, climate change affects rural communities that heavily depend on their agriculture and natural resources for their livelihood. Increased frequency and severity of climate events disproportionately affects women, rural, dryland, and island communities.[8] This leads to more drastic changes in their lifestyles and forces them to adapt to this change. It is becoming more important for local and government agencies to create strategies to react to change and adapt infrastructure to meet the needs of those impacted. Various organizations, such as the Natural Resource Institute, work to create adaptation, mitigation, and resilience plans that will help rural and at risk communities around the world that depend on the earth's resources to survive.[9]

Differences by region or sector

Vulnerability is often framed in dialogue with climate adaptation. IPCC (2007a) defined adaptation (to climate change) as "[initiatives] and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects" (p. 76).[2] Vulnerability (to climate change) was defined as "the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes" (p. 89). Different communities or systems are better prepared for adaptation in part because of their existing vulnerabilities.[2]

Regions

With high confidence, Smith et al. (2001:957–958) concluded that developing countries would tend to be more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries.[10] Based on then-current development trends, Smith et al. (2001:940–941) predicted that few developing countries would have the capacity to efficiently adapt to climate change.

  • Africa: In a literature assessment, Boko et al. (2007:435) concluded, with high confidence, that Africa's major economic sectors had been vulnerable to observed climate variability.[11] This vulnerability was judged to have contributed to Africa's weak adaptive capacity, resulting in Africa having high vulnerability to future climate change. It was thought likely that projected sea-level rise would increase the socio-economic vulnerability of African coastal cities.
  • Asia: Lal et al. (2001:536) reviewed the literature on adaptation and vulnerability. With medium confidence, they concluded that climate change would result in the degradation of permafrost in boreal Asia, worsening the vulnerability of climate-dependent sectors, and affecting the region's economy.[12]
  • Australia and New Zealand: Hennessy et al. (2007:509) reviewed the literature on adaptation and vulnerability.[13] With high confidence, they concluded that in Australia and New Zealand, most human systems had considerable adaptive capacity. With medium confidence, some Indigenous communities were judged to have low adaptive capacity.
  • Europe: In a literature assessment, Kundzewicz et al. (2001:643) concluded, with very high confidence, that the adaptation potential of socioeconomic systems in Europe was relatively high.[14] This was attributed to Europe's high GNP, stable growth, stable population, and well-developed political, institutional, and technological support systems.
  • Latin America: In a literature assessment, Mata et al. (2001:697) concluded that the adaptive capacity of socioeconomic systems in Latin America was very low, particularly in regard to extreme weather events, and that the region's vulnerability was high.[15]
  • Polar regions: Anisimov et al. (2001, pp. 804–805) concluded that:[16]
    • within the Antarctic and Arctic, at localities where water was close to melting point, socioeconomic systems were particularly vulnerable to climate change.
    • the Arctic would be extremely vulnerable to climate change. Anisimov et al. (2001) predicted that there would be major ecological, sociological, and economic impacts in the region.
  • Small islands: Mimura et al. (2007, p. 689) concluded, with very high confidence, that small islands were particularly vulnerable to climate change.[17] Partly this was attributed to their low adaptive capacity and the high costs of adaptation in proportion to their GDP.

Systems and sectors
  • Coasts and low-lying areas: According to Nicholls et al. (2007, p. 336), societal vulnerability to climate change is largely dependent on development status.[18] Developing countries lack the necessary financial resources to relocate those living in low-lying coastal zones, making them more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries. With high confidence, Nicholls et al. (2007, p. 317) concluded that on vulnerable coasts, the costs of adapting to climate change are lower than the potential damage costs.[19]
  • Industry, settlements and society:
    • At the scale of a large nation or region, at least in most industrialized economies, the economic value of sectors with low vulnerability to climate change greatly exceeds that of sectors with high vulnerability (Wilbanks et al., 2007, p. 366).[20] Additionally, the capacity of a large, complex economy to absorb climate-related impacts, is often considerable. Consequently, estimates of the aggregate damages of climate change – ignoring possible abrupt climate change – are often rather small as a percentage of economic production. On the other hand, at smaller scales, e.g., for a small country, sectors and societies might be highly vulnerable to climate change. Potential climate change impacts might therefore amount to very severe damages.
    • Wilbanks et al. (2007, p. 359) concluded, with very high confidence, that vulnerability to climate change depends considerably on specific geographic, sectoral and social contexts. In their view, these vulnerabilities are not reliably estimated by large-scale aggregate modelling.[21]

Tools

Climate vulnerability can be analyzed or evaluating using a number of processes or tools. Below are several of them There are several organizations and tools used by the international community and scientists to assess climate vulnerability.

Assessments
Main article: Vulnerability assessment

Vulnerability assessments are done for local communities to evaluate where and how communities or systems will be vulnerable to climate change. These kinds of reports can vary widely in scope and scale-- for example the World Bank and Ministry of Economy of Fiji commissioned a report for the whole country in 2017-18[22] while the Rochester, New York commissioned a much more local report for the city in 2018.[23] Or, for example, NOAA Fisheries commissioned Climate Vulnerability assessments for marine fishers in the United States.[24]

Vulnerability assessments in Global south

In the Global South, the vulnerability assessment is usually developed during the process of preparing local adaptation plans for climate change or sustainable action plans.[25] The vulnerability is ascertained on an urban district or neighborhood scale. Vulnerability is also a determinant of risk and is consequently ascertained each time a risk assessment is required. In these cases, the vulnerability is expressed by an index, made up of indicators. The information that allows to measure the single indicators are already available in statistics and thematic maps, or are collected through interviews. The latter case is used on very limited territorial areas (a city, a municipality, the communities of a district). It is therefore an occasional assessment aimed at a specific event: a project, a plan.[26]

For example, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) and the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change (MoEF&CC) in India published a framework for doing vulnerability assessments of communities in India.[27]

Climate Vulnerability Monitor
This section is an excerpt from Climate Vulnerability Monitor[edit]

The Climate Vulnerability Monitor (CVM) is an independent global assessment of the effect of climate change on the world's populations brought together by panels of key international authorities. The Monitor was launched in December 2010 in London and Cancun to coincide with the UN Cancun Summit on climate change (COP-16).[28][29]

Developed by DARA and the Climate Vulnerable Forum, the report is meant to serve as a new tool to assess global vulnerability to various effects of climate change within different nations.[30]

The report distills leading science and research for a clearer explanation of how and where populations are being affected by climate change today (2010) and in the near future (2030), while pointing to key actions that reduce these impacts.[31]

DARA and the Climate Vulnerable Forum launched the 2nd edition of the Climate Vulnerability Monitor on 26 September 2012 at the Asia Society, New York.[32]

Climate Vulnerability Index

James Cook University is producing a vulnerability index for World Heritage Sites globally, including cultural, natural and mixed sites.[33]

Mapping

A systematic review published in 2019 found 84 studies focused on the use of mapping to communicate and do analysis of climate vulnerability.[34]

Vulnerability tracking

Climate vulnerability tracking starts identifying the relevant information, preferably open access, produced by state or international bodies at the scale of interest. Then a further effort to make the vulnerability information freely accessible to all development actors is required.[26] Vulnerability tracking has many applications. It constitutes an indicator for the monitoring and evaluation of programs and projects for resilience and adaptation to climate change. Vulnerability tracking is also a decision making tool in regional and national adaptation policies.[26]

International relations

Because climate vulnerability disproportionally effects countries without the economic or infrastructure of more developed countries, climate vulnerability has become an important tool in international negotiations about climate change adaptation, climate finance and other international policy making activities.

Climate Vulnerable Forum
This section is an excerpt from Climate Vulnerable Forum[edit]

The Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) is a global partnership of countries that are disproportionately affected by the consequences of global warming.[35] The forum addresses the negative effects of global warming as a result of heightened socioeconomic and environmental vulnerabilities. These countries actively seek a firm and urgent resolution to the current intensification of climate change, domestically and internationally.[36]

The CVF was formed to increase the accountability of industrialized nations for the consequences of global climate change. It also aims to exert additional pressure for action to tackle the challenge, which includes local action by countries considered susceptible.[36] Political leaders involved in this partnership are "using their status as those most vulnerable to climate change to punch far above their weight at the negotiating table".[37] The governments which founded the CVF agree to national commitments to pursue low-carbon development and carbon neutrality.[38]

Ethiopia became the first African Chair of the Climate Vulnerable Forum during the CVF High-Level Climate Policy Forum held in the Senate of the Philippines in August 2016.[39]

The Philippines was the Chair of the Climate Vulnerable Forum during the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris (COP21) and oversaw the adoption of the body’s Manila-Paris Declaration[40] at the Third High-Level Meeting of the Forum in November 2015. The Manila-Paris Declaration articulated the common concerns and commitments of vulnerable countries and urged the strengthening of the UNFCCC goal of limiting warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. During this meeting the membership of the Climate Vulnerable Forum expanded to include 23 new members.[41]

In 2015, the twenty member countries in a forum chaired by the Philippines launched the official bloc of the forum, the 'V20' or 'Vulnerable Twenty', consisting of the top 20 nations from all over the world that are most affected by the catastrophes rooted from climate change. The members of the bloc are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Barbados, Bhutan, Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Kiribati, Madagascar, Maldives, Nepal, Philippines, Rwanda, Saint Lucia, Tanzania, Timor-Leste, Tuvalu, Vanuatu and Vietnam. During the 2nd V20 Ministerial Dialogue in April 2016 in Washington DC, the V20 recognized the 23 new members that joined the CVF in 2015 as incoming members in the V20 initiative.[42] These countries are currently and diversely affected by various climate change problems such as super storms, storm surges, droughts, famine due to climate factors, food shortage as by-product of climate change, power cutting, flash floods, mud slides, desertification, heatwaves, reduction of fresh water sources, and other effects of climate change. Climate change is globally believed and scientifically proven to have incurred from the economic activities of developed and developing nations and regions such as China, the United States, and Europe.[43]

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