Climate change in Europe

The heat wave in 2018 in England, which would take hundreds of lives, would have had 30 times less of a chance of happening, without climate change. By 2050, such patterns would occur every 2 years if the current rate of warming continues.[10][11] In the absence of climate change, extreme heat waves in Europe would be expected to occur only once every several hundred years. In addition to hydrological changes, grain crops mature earlier at a higher temperature, which may reduce the critical growth period and lead to lower grain yields. The Russian heat wave in 2010 caused grain harvest down by 25%, government ban wheat exports, and losses were 1% of GDP. Russian heat wave 2010 estimate for deaths is 55,000.[9]

The heat wave in summer of 2019 as of June 28, claimed human lives, caused closing or taking special measures in 4,000 schools in France only, and big wildfires. Many areas declared state of emergency and advised the public to avoid "risky behaviour" like leaving children in cars or jogging outside in the middle of the day". In a TV interview, Health Minister Agnès Buzyn said she "was concerned about the increase in calls to emergency service numbers as a result of the heatwave."[12] The heatwave was made at least 5 times more likely by climate change and possibly even 100 times[13]

The summer of 2019 brought a series of high temperature records in Western Europe. During a heat wave a glaciological rarity in the form of a previously unseen lake emerged in the Mont Blanc Massif in the French Alps, at the foot of the Dent du Géant at an altitude of about 3400 meters, that was considered as evidence for the effects of global warming on the glaciers.[14][15][16]

The Arctic sea ice reached a record minimum in September 2012. It halved the area of ice covering the Arctic Ocean in summers over the last 30 years.[9]

In 2019 for the first time, cases of Zika fever were diagnosed in Europe not because people traveled to tropical countries like Brazil, but from local mosquitos. The warming climate causes probably the change.[17]

The annual CO₂ emissions from coal were in the OECD Europe during 2005–2008 on average equal to the year 2000. There are however country specific differences. During 1990-2008 emissions from coal were the highest in Europe in Russia, Germany, Poland, Ukraine and United Kingdom. Among the top 20 coal emission countries only four countries have increased their annual average emissions from coal during 2005-2008 compared to the year 1990, namely Turkey (181%), Finland ( 121%), Italy (115%) and Greece (108%).

Many Eastern European countries, including East Germany, Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Slovakia, Estonia and Hungary, and also United Kingdom, have significantly declined their coal dependency from 1990 to 2000. However, the statistics of the IEA gives no evidence of decline of coal dependency during 2000–2008 in Europe. Belgium is the only European country among the top 20 countries that have clearly declined their climate change emissions from coal during 2000–2008.

Greenhouse gases are also released through agriculture. Livestock production is common in Europe, responsible for 42% of land in Europe. This land use for livestock does affect the environment. Agriculture accounts for 10% of Europe's greenhouse gas emissions, this percentage being even larger in other parts of the world.[18] Along with this percentage agriculture is also responsible for being the largest contributor of non carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions being emitted annually in Europe.[19] Agriculture has been found to release other gases besides carbon dioxide such as methane and nitrous oxide. A study claimed that 38% of greenhouse gases released through agriculture in Europe were methane. These farms release methane through chemicals in fertilizers used, manure, and a process called enteric fermentation.[19] These gases are estimated to possibly cause even more damage than carbon dioxide, a study by Environmental Research Letters claims that "CH4 has 20 times more heat-trapping potential than CO2 and N2O has 300 times more." [20] These emissions released through agriculture are also linked to soil acidification and loss of bio diversity in Europe as well.[18]

Europe is attempting to take action. The Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) was created, focusing on lowering the amount of greenhouse gas emissions through land use in Europe. [19] Some success was seen, between 1990 and 2016, greenhouse gases emitted through agriculture in Europe decreased by 20%. However, the European Union has a plan to become carbon neutral by 2050. If more policies are not implemented or if there is no dietary shift, it has been concluded the European Union may not reach this goal.[19]

Greenhouse gas emissions from shipping equal the carbon footprint of a quarter of passenger cars in Europe. In France, Germany, UK, Spain, Sweden and Finland shipping emissions in 2018 were larger than the emissions from all the passenger cars registered in 10 or more of the largest cities in each country. Despite the scale emissions, they are not part of emissions reduction targets made by countries as part of the Paris agreement on climate change.[21]

The climate commitments of the European Union are divided into 3 main categories: targets for the year 2020, 2030 and 2050. The European Union claim that its policies are in line with the goal of the Paris Agreement.[23][24] The programm of response to climate change in Europe is called European Green Deal.[22] In April of the year 2020 the European Parliament called to include the European Green Deal in the recovery program from the COVID-19 pandemic[25]

Targets for the year 2020:

• Reduce GHG emissions by 20% from the level in 1990.
• Produce 20% of energy from renewable sources.
• Increase Energy Efficiency by 20%[26].

Targets for the year 2030:

• Reduce GHG emission by 55% from the level in 1990.[27]
• Produce 32% of energy from renewables.
• Increase energy efficiency by 32.5%.[28]

Targets for the year 2050:

• Became climate neutral.[29]

The European Union claims that it has already achieved its 2020 target for emission reduction and has the legislation needed to achieve the 2030 targets. Already in 2018, its GHG emissions were 23% lower that in 1990.[30]

There is in place national legislation, international agreements and EU directives. The EU directive 2001/77/EU promotes renewable energy in electricity production. The climate subprogramme will provide €864 million in co-financing for climate projects between 2014 and 2020. Its main objectives are to contribute to the shift towards a low carbon and climate resilient economy and improve the development, implementation and enforcement of EU climate change policies and laws.[31]

In March of the year 2020 a draft of a climate law for the entire European Union was proposed. The law obliges the European Union to become carbon neutral by 2050 and adjust all his policies to the target. The law includes measures to increase the use of trains. The law includes a mechanism to check the implementation of the needed measures. It also should increase the climate ambitions of other countries. It includes a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism,[32] that will prevent Carbon leakage.[33] Greta Thunberg and other climate activist criticized the draft saying it has not enough strong targets[34]

British government and economist Nicholas Stern published the Stern report in 2006. The Review states that climate change is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen, presenting a unique challenge for economics. The Review provides prescriptions including environmental taxes to minimize the economic and social disruptions. The Stern Review's main conclusion is that the benefits of strong, early action on climate change far outweigh the costs of not acting.[35] The Review points to the potential impacts of climate change on water resources, food production, health, and the environment. According to the Review, without action, the overall costs of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global gross domestic product (GDP) each year, now and forever. Including a wider range of risks and impacts could increase this to 20% of GDP or more.

No-one can predict the consequences of climate change with complete certainty; but we now know enough to understand the risks. The review leads to a simple conclusion: the benefits of strong, early action considerably outweigh the costs.[36]

On April 22, 2016 the Paris Climate Accords were signed by all but three countries around the world. The conference to talk about this document was held in Paris, France. This put Europe in the epicenter of talks about the environment and climate change. The EU was the first major economy that decided to submit its intended contribution to the new agreement in March 2015. The EU ratified the Paris Agreement on October 5, 2015.[37]

In these talks the countries agreed that they all had a long-term goal of keeping global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius. They agreed that global emissions need to peak as soon as possible, and recognize that this will take longer for developing countries. On the subject of transparency the countries agreed that they would meet every five years to set ambitious goals, report their progress to the public and each other, and track progress for their long-term goals throughout a transparent and accountable system.[38]

The countries recognized the importance of non-party stakeholders to be involved in this process. Cities, regions, and local authorities are encouraged to uphold and promote regional and international cooperation.[38]

EU parliament declared climate emergency in November 2019. It urged all EU countries to commit to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. MEPs backed a tougher target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030. The vote came as scientists warned that the world may have already crossed a series of climate tipping points, resulting in “a state of planetary emergency”.[39] The parliament also calls to end all fossil fuel subsidies by 2020, increase at least twice the payments to the green climate fund, make sure that all the legislation and the European budget will be in line with the 1.5 degrees target, and reduce emissions from aviation and shipping.[40]

The European Investment Bank declared that it will divest almost completely from fossil fuels from the year 2021 and stopping to accept new projects already in 2019[41]

The central bank of Sweden sold its bonds in the provinces Queensland, Western Australia in Australia and the province Alberta from Canada because of severe climate impacts from those provinces[42]

In the end of November 2019, the European parliament adopted resolution calling to end all subsidies to fossil fuels by 2020[40]

In 2019 the European Parliament created rules for identification of sustainable investments. The measure should help achieve climate neutral Europe[43]

In May 2020, the €750 billion European recovery package and the €1 trillion budget were announced. The European Green deal is part of it. One of the principles is "Do no harm".The money will be spent only on projects that meet some green criteria. 25% of all funding will go to Climate change mitigation. Fossil fuels and Nuclear power are excluded from the funding. The recovery package is also should restore some equilibrium between rich and poor countries in the European Union.[44] In July the recovery package and the budget were generally accepted. The part of the money that should go to climate action raised to 30%. The plan includes some green taxation on European products and on import. But critics say it is still not enough for achieving the climate targets of the European Union and it is not clear how to ensure that all the money will really go to green projects[45]

In May 2020, the European Union published 2 planes, that are part of the European Green Deal: The EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 and From Farm to Fork.

In the official page of the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 is cited Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, saing that:

"Making nature healthy again is key to our physical and mental wellbeing and is an ally in the fight against climate change and disease outbreaks. It is at the heart of our growth strategy, the European Green Deal, and is part of a European recovery that gives more back to the planet than it takes away."[46]

The biodiversity strategy is an essential part of the climate change mitigation strategy of the European Union. From the 25% of the European budget that will go to fight climate change, large part will go to restore biodiversity and nature based solutions.

The EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 include the next targets:

• Protect 30% of the sea territory and 30% of the land territory especially Old-growth forests.
• Plant 3 billion trees by the year 2030.
• Restore at least 25,000 kilometers of rivers, so they will become free flowing.
• Reduce the use of Pesticides by 50% by the year 2030.
• Increase Organic farming.
• Increase Biodiverisity in agriculture.
• Give €20 billion per year to the issue and make it part of the business practice.

According to the page, approximately half of the global GDP depend on nature. In Europe many parts of the economy that generate trillions € per year, depend on nature. Only the benefits of Natura 2000 in Europe are €200 - €300 billion per year[46]

In the official page of the program From Farm to Fork is cited Frans Timmermans the Executive Vice-President of the European Commission, saying that:

"The coronavirus crisis has shown how vulnerable we all are, and how important it is to restore the balance between human activity and nature. At the heart of the Green Deal the Biodiversity and Farm to Fork strategies point to a new and better balance of nature, food systems and biodiversity; to protect our people’s health and well-being, and at the same time to increase the EU’s competitiveness and resilience. These strategies are a crucial part of the great transition we are embarking upon."[47]

The program include the next targets:

• Making 25% of EU agriculture organic, by the year 2030.
• Reduce by 50% the use of Pesticides by the year 2030.
• Reduce the use of Fertilizers by 20% by the year 2030.
• Reduce nutrient loss by at least 50%.
• Reduce the use of antimicrobials in agriculture and antimicrobials in aquaculture by 50% by 2030.
• Create sustainable food labeling.
• Reduce food waste by 50% by 2030.
• Dedicate to R&I related to the issue €10 billion.[47]

The critics include that European companies, like in other OECD countries, have moved the energy intensive, polluting and climate gas emitting industry to Asia and South America. In respect to climate change there are no harmless areas. Carbon emissions from all countries are equal. The agreements exclude significant factors like deforestation, aviation and tourism, the actual end consumption of energy and the history of emissions. Negotiations are country oriented but the economical interests are in conflict between the energy producers, consumers and the environment.

Regarding greenhouse gas emission as a whole, the country have 4 targets: from the level of 1990, emissions should be reduced by 40% by the year 2020, by 63% by the year 2030, achieve net zero emissions by 2045, and reach negative emissions after this year.[48]

In 2020, 2 years before it was planned to be done, Sweden closed it latest coal fired power station and became coal free, the third country in Europe, after Belgium and Austria.[49] As of 2018, 54% of energy came from renewables sources. The country have a target to achieve 100% electricity from renweables by 2040.[50]

In 2019 Denmark passed a law in which its pledge to reduce GHG emissions by 70% by 2030 from the level in 1990. It also pledged to achieve zero emissions by 2050. The law includes strong monitoring system and setting intermediate targets every 5 years. It includes a pledge to help climate action in other countries and consider climate impacts in diplomatic and economic relations with other countries.[51]

Population density and altitude above sealevel in Northeast Italy (2010)

In 2019, Italy became the first country in the world to introduce mandatory lessons about sustainability and climate change. The lessons will be taught in all schools, in the ages 6 –19, one hour each week.[52]

At the beginning of the year 2020, major parties in Austria reach a deal, including achieving carbon - neutrality of the country by 2040, produce all electricity from renewable sources by 2030, making a nationwide carbon tax and making a tax on flying, what should making trains more attractive.[53]

In 2020 the latest coal fired power station in the country was closed. Austria became the second country in Europe, after Belgium to become coal free. The goal of achieving 100% renewable electrycity by 2030 was adopted by government[54]

Finland has a target of carbon neutrality by the year 2035 without carbon credits. The policies include nature conservation, more investments in trains, changes in taxation and more sustainable wood burning.[55] After 2035 Finland will be carbon negative, meaning soaking more carbon than emitting[56]

Norway wants to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030 partly by investing in projects with emissions reduction abroad. It wants to achieve zero emission in the country by 2050.[57] In the year 2020 Norway pledged to achieve a 50% - 55% reduction in domesticated emissions from the level of 1990 by 2030.[58]

As of March 2020, 55.9% of the car sales in Norway were electric cars, 26.4% were hybrids (with or without plugs)[59]

Iceland has a target of becoming carbon neutral by 2040.[60] It wants to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by the year 2030.[61]

Vineyards in Thrace are being affected[62] and an EU carbon tariff might affect trade.[63]