Opinion polling for the 2005 United Kingdom general election

In the run up to the general election of 2005, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain (i.e. the UK excluding Northern Ireland, which is usually excluded from such voting intention surveys). Results of such polls are displayed below.

Opinion polling for UK general elections
1997 election
Opinion polls
2001 election
Opinion polls
2005 election
Opinion polls
2010 election
Opinion polls
2015 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval

The election took place on 5 May 2005. The previous general election was held on 7 June 2001.

Details of opinion polling

Since each MP is elected separately by the first past the post voting system, it is impossible to precisely project a clear election outcome from overall national shares of the vote. Not only can individual constituencies vary markedly from overall voting trends, but individual countries and regions within the nation may have a very different electoral contest that is not properly reflected in overall share of the vote figures.

Therefore, the first past the post system means that the number of MPs elected may not reflect the overall popular vote share across the parties. Thus, it is not necessarily the party with the largest share of the popular vote that ends up with the largest number of MPs. (See details of the elections in 1951 and Feb 1974) Since 1935 no party has achieved more than 50% of the popular vote in a British general election. The voting system favours parties with relatively concentrated support: a widely distributed vote leaves a party at risk of getting a large vote share but doing poorly in terms of numbers of seats (as the SDP-Liberal Alliance did in the 1980s), whereas parties with localised votes can win seats with a relatively small share of the vote.

That said, in previous elections, approximate forecasting of results were achieved by assuming that the swing in each individual constituency will be the same across the country. This system, known as uniform national swing (UNS) is used by much of the media in Britain to assess and extrapolate electoral fortunes from opinion poll data, though there has been criticism that such predictions may be naive and unreliable, even from providers of such data.[1]

Normally governments can easily survive for a full parliamentary term on a majority of more than 20 seats over all other parties. Below that level there is a danger of by-elections and MPs crossing the floor of the House reducing the government to a minority such that it would be at increased risk of losing a vote of no confidence.

Election battleground

The 2001 general election, which had the lowest turnout of any general election for more than 80 years, saw the Labour government of Tony Blair re-elected with a second successive landslide majority, which left the political landscape almost completely unchanged. William Hague resigned as leader of a Conservative opposition which failed to make any real progress from its heavy defeat in 1997, and was succeeded by Iain Duncan Smith.

The Labour government remained ascendant in the opinion polls, but its popularity began to suffer from Mar 2003 as a result of Tony Blair's decision to send British forces to collaborate with the American forces in their invasion of Iraq, which led to the end of Saddam Hussein's dictatorship, as well as his eventual capture, trial and execution by a new democratic Iraqi government. However, there was a public outcry that the invasion of Iraq failed to uncover weapons of mass destruction which had long been believed to exist in Iraq. By the summer of 2003, several opinion polls were showing a narrow Conservative lead, and the Liberal Democrats were also shown to be enjoying a surge in support, largely seen to be the result of Charles Kennedy's anti-war stance.

However, opinion polls showed that Iain Duncan Smith was not a popular choice with voters as a potential prime minister, and there was also the fact that Labour still had a huge parliamentary majority, while the Tories would have to almost double their share of seats in parliament to form a majority. Duncan Smith was ousted as leader in Nov 2003 following a vote of no confidence by his own party, was succeeded uncontested by the former Home Secretary Michael Howard, who helped the Tories keep close behind Labour in the opinion polls and oversaw strong showings in the local council and European parliament by-elections of 2004.

A general election was called for 5 May 2005, with Labour winning for a third successive time, but its majority dropped from 160 seats to 66 seats, with both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats enjoying substantial gains.

Tony Blair had already decided that the 2005 general election would be the last he would contest as Labour Party leader if re-election was achieved. Michael Howard announced his resignation shortly afterwards, feeling that he was too old to lead the party into the next general election (knowing that it was unlikely to be held until he was almost 60 years old), and Charles Kennedy stepped down eight months later following revelations about his personal life.

Graphical summary
  Labour
  Conservatives
  Liberal Democrats

Poll results

Poll results are initially listed in reverse chronological order showing the most recent first, using the date the fieldwork was undertaken, as opposed to the date of publication.

The figure given in the 'lead' column is the lead held by Labour or the Conservatives over the second placed of the two parties.

2005
Date(s) Conducted Polling Organisation/Client Sample Size Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
5 May 20052005 Election Results (GB only)–36.2%33.2%22.7%7.9%3.0%
3–4 May 2005Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard1,16438%33%23%6%5%
2–3 May 2005Populus/The Times1,17438%32%21%8%6%
1–3 May 2005ICM/Guardian1,17838%32%22%8%6%
29 Apr – 2 May 2005Populus/The Times86641%27%23%9%14%
27–30 Apr 2005Populus/The Times86342%29%21%8%13%
25–28 Apr 2005Populus/The Times85340%31%22%7%9%
24–27 Apr 2005Populus/The Times84140%31%21%8%9%
24–26 Apr 2005ICM/Guardian1,20940%32%21%5%8%
23–26 Apr 2005Populus/The Times83540%31%21%8%9%
22–25 Apr 2005Populus/The Times83140%31%21%8%9%
21–24 Apr 2005Populus/The Times81941%33%19%7%8%
20–23 Apr 2005Populus/The Times79841%32%20%7%9%
19–22 Apr 2005Populus/The Times Online79841%33%20%6%8%
18–21 Apr 2005Populus/The Times80640%33%20%7%7%
17–20 Apr 2005Populus/The Times83639%34%20%7%5%
17–19 Apr 2005ICM/Guardian1,16339%33%22%7%6%
16–19 Apr 2005Populus/The Times86339%33%21%7%6%
14–17 Apr 2005Populus/The Times58640%31%21%8%9%
10–12 Apr 2005ICM/Guardian1,16939%33%22%7%6%
1–3 Apr 2005ICM/Guardian97337%34%21%8%3%
1–3 Apr 2005Populus/The Times81237%35%19%9%2%
18–20 Mar 2005ICM/Guardian71640%32%20%7%8%
4–6 Mar 2005Populus/The Times83139%32%20%9%7%
18–20 Feb 2005ICM/Guardian1,013[2]37%34%21%8%3%
4–6 Feb 2005Populus/The Times81441%32%18%9%9%
21–23 Jan 2005ICM/Guardian1,000[2]38%31%21%9%6%
7–9 Jan 2005Populus/The Times84838%33%20%9%5%

2004
Date(s) Conducted Polling Organisation/Client Sample Size Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
16–19 Dec 2004ICM/Guardian1,002[2]40%31%21%7%8%
3–5 Dec 2004Populus/The Times82637%33%20%10%4%
12–14 Nov 2004ICM/Guardian83038%30%22%10%8%
22–24 Oct 2004ICM/Guardian1,01137%31%23%9%6%
21–23 Sep 2004YouGov/Daily Telegraph203336%34%21%9%2%
17–19 Sep 2004ICM/Guardian1,00536%32%22%10%4%
2–5 Sep 2004Populus/The Times60831%30%26%13%1%
13–15 Aug 2004ICM/Guardian1,00536%33%22%9%3%
30 Jul – 1 Aug 2004Populus/The Times57032%32%24%12%Tie
16–18 Jul 2004ICM/Guardian1,00735%30%25%10%5%
2–3 Jul 2004Populus/The Times55633%29%24%14%4%
18–20 Jun 2004Ipsos MORI/Financial Times96632%27%22%19%6%
11–13 Jun 2004ICM/Guardian1,00934%31%22%13%3%
10 Jun 20042004 European election
4–6 Jun 2004Populus/The Times58931%29%22%18%3%
20–23 May 2004ICM/Guardian1,00139%34%20%7%5%
7–9 May 2004Populus/The Times57832%36%22%10%4%
16–18 Apr 2004ICM/Guardian1,00238%33%22%6%5%
10–11 Mar 2004ICM/Guardian1,01437%35%21%7%2%
5–7 Mar 2004Populus/The Times57336%34%22%8%2%
20–22 Feb 2004ICM/Guardian1,00636%34%21%8%2%
6–8 Feb 2004Populus/The Times58036%31%25%8%5%
16–18 Jan 2004ICM/Guardian1,00739%34%20%7%5%
2–4 Jan 2004Populus/The Times56640%35%18%7%5%

2003
Date(s) Conducted Polling Organisation/Client Sample Size Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
12–14 Dec 2003ICM/Guardian[3]1,00138%33%21%8%5%
5–7 Dec 2003Populus/The Times55735%33%22%10%2%
14–16 Nov 2003ICM/Guardian[3]1,00238%33%21%8%5%
7–9 Nov 2003Populus/The Times55435%31%24%10%4%
6 Nov 2003Michael Howard elected Conservative Party leader
17–19 Oct 2003ICM/Guardian[3]1,00438%33%21%8%5%
3–5 Oct 2003Populus/The Times52436%28%27%9%8%
23–25 Sep 2003YouGov/Daily Telegraph230631%32%30%7%1%
19–21 Sep 2003ICM/Guardian1,00235%30%28%8%5%
5–6 Sep 2003Populus/The Times51137%35%20%8%2%
15–17 Aug 2003ICM/Guardian1,00137%32%22%9%5%
1–3 Aug 2003Populus/The Times56435%33%25%7%2%
22–24 Jul 2003YouGov/Daily Telegraph221934%37%22%7%3%
18–20 Jul 2003ICM/Guardian1,00336%34%22%9%2%
20–22 Jun 2003ICM/Guardian1,00138%34%21%7%4%
13–15 Jun 2003Populus/The Times51336%34%21%9%2%
16–18 May 2003ICM/Guardian1,00042%29%21%8%13%
2–4 Mar 2003Populus/The Times56535%34%23%8%1%
22–24 Apr 2003YouGov/Daily Telegraph239040%32%21%7%8%
17–19 Apr 2003ICM/Guardian1,00042%30%21%7%12%
26–27 Mar 2003YouGov/Daily Telegraph228240%33%20%7%7%
19-20 Mar 2003 The 2003 invasion of Iraq begins
10–12 Mar 2003Populus/The Times54042%29%22%7%13%
14–16 Mar 2003ICM/Guardian1,00238%32%24%6%6%
7–9 Mar 2003Populus/The Times49834%34%24%8%Tie
14–16 Feb 2003ICM/Guardian1,00339%31%22%8%8%
7–9 Feb 2003Populus/The Times55535%34%25%6%1%
28–30 Jan 2003YouGov/Daily Telegraph194936%32%24%8%4%
17–19 Jan 2003ICM/Guardian1,00243%30%21%6%13%
3–5 Jan 2003Populus/The Times56538%31%25%6%7%

2002
Date(s) Conducted Polling Organisation/Client Sample Size Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
13–15 Dec 2002ICM/Guardian1,00641%27%23%8%14%
15–17 Nov 2002ICM/Guardian1,00042%29%22%7%13%
18–20 Oct 2002ICM/Guardian1,00143%32%20%6%11%
11–13 Oct 2002Populus/The Times1,00142%30%21%6%12%
20–22 Sep 2002ICM/Guardian1,00039%34%20%7%5%
5–7 Sep 2002Populus/The Times61039%33%21%6%6%
23–25 Aug 2002ICM/Guardian1,00341%32%21%6%9%
26–27 Jul 2002ICM/Guardian1,00242%33%20%4%9%
21–23 Jun 2002ICM/Guardian1,00242%32%20%7%10%
17–19 May 2002ICM/Guardian1,00342%34%19%5%8%
20–21 Apr 2002ICM/Guardian1,00045%29%18%8%16%
15–17 Mar 2002ICM/Guardian1,00143%34%17%6%9%
15–17 Feb 2002ICM/Guardian1,00347%30%18%5%17%
18–20 Jan 2002ICM/Guardian1,00345%30%19%6%15%

2001
Date(s) Conducted Polling Organisation/Client Sample Size Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
14–16 Dec 2001ICM/Guardian1,00044%29%20%7%15%
16–18 Nov 2001ICM/Guardian1,00446%29%19%6%17%
19–20 Oct 2001ICM/Guardian1,00047%29%19%5%18%
14–16 Sep 2001ICM/Guardian1,00746%29%20%5%17%
6 Nov 2003Iain Duncan Smith elected Conservative Party leader
17–19 Aug 2001ICM/Guardian1,00446%30%17%7%16%
13–14 Jul 2001ICM/Guardian1,00146%30%18%6%16%
31 May – 1 Jun 2001Ipsos MORI/The Sunday Telegraph1,02150%27%17%6%23%
7 Jun 20012001 Election Results–42.0%32.7%18.8%6.5%9.3%

References
  1. Predicting Results UK Polling Report
  2. The number of responses used to calculate the voting intention was not provided; the total number of participants in the poll is therefore listed.
  3. The responses to the questions on voting intention are not included in this document; they have therefore instead been taken from Guardian/ICM polls: every one since 1984.
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