Opinion polling for the 2010 United Kingdom general election

In the run-up to the general election of 2010, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain (i.e. the UK excluding Northern Ireland, which is usually excluded from such voting intention surveys). Results of such polls are displayed below.

The election took place on 6 May 2010, coinciding with the local elections. The previous general election was held on 5 May 2005.

Tony Blair stood down as prime minister after 10 years in June 2007, and was succeeded by chancellor Gordon Brown. That autumn, the national media reported that an imminent general election was likely, putting all polling organisations, the press and political parties on an election footing, but Brown eventually announced that he would not seek a dissolution. According to many media and political figures, this was because he believed that Labour was likely to lose its majority in a snap general election, even though many opinion polls suggested that a fourth successive election win for Labour was likely, and this would potentially have ensured the Labour government's survival to the end of 2012. Brown has since claimed that Labour would have won but he did not believe an early election was in the national interest.[1][2]

In the meantime, Michael Howard had stepped down as Tory leader after the 2005 general election, being succeeded by David Cameron. In January 2006, Charles Kennedy stepped down as leader of the Liberal Democrats to be succeeded by Menzies Campbell, who himself resigned at the end of the following year to be succeeded by Nick Clegg.

2006 had seen the Tories make gains in local elections, as well as enjoying their first consistent lead of the opinion polls in 14 years. 2007 had seen both the Tories and Labour lead the opinion polls, but 2008 saw the Tories build up a wide lead as the Labour government's support slumped in the face of the economic crisis. Labour also suffered huge losses in local elections, as well as suffering by-election defeats, with the Tories, Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party all enjoying success at Labour's expense. This trend continued throughout 2009 as the recession deepened and unemployment continued to soar. The expenses scandal also had an adverse effect on the Labour government's dwindling popularity, although MPs from other parties were also shamed in the scandal. Labour also performed dismally at the 2009 European Parliament election,[3] and opinion polls pointed towards a heavy defeat in the event of a general election. The previous two general elections had both been held at four-year intervals, but there would be no general election in 2009.

On 6 April 2010, Brown called a general election for 6 May – with the opinion polls still showing a Conservative lead, although most of the polls showed that a Conservative majority was unlikely, suggesting that Labour could still continue in a minority or coalition government. In the event, the Tories enjoyed the largest share of votes and seats, but came 20 seats short of a majority. On 11 May, Brown tendered his resignation as prime minister to the Queen, and recommended that Cameron should be invited to form the next government. Cameron duly did so, forming a government in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, and making Clegg deputy prime minister.

Background

Since each MP is elected separately by the first past the post voting system, it is impossible to precisely project a clear election outcome from overall national shares of the vote. Not only can individual constituencies vary markedly from overall voting trends, but individual countries and regions within the nation may have a very different electoral contest that is not properly reflected in overall share of the vote figures.

Therefore, the first past the post system means that the number of MPs elected may not reflect the overall popular vote share across the parties. Thus, it is not necessarily the party with the largest share of the popular vote that ends up with the largest number of MPs. (See details of the elections in 1951 and February 1974) Since 1935 no party has achieved more than 50% of the popular vote in a British general election. The voting system favours parties with relatively concentrated support: a widely distributed vote leaves a party at risk of getting a large vote share but doing poorly in terms of numbers of seats (as the SDP–Liberal Alliance did in the 1980s), whereas parties with localised votes can win seats with a relatively small share of the vote.[4]

That said, in previous elections, approximate forecasting of results were achieved by assuming that the swing in each individual constituency will be the same across the country. This system, known as uniform national swing (UNS) is used by much of the media in Britain to assess and extrapolate electoral fortunes from opinion poll data, though there has been criticism that such predictions may be naive and unreliable, even from providers of such data.[5] By using UNS projections, several media commentators and politicians have suggested that significant swings towards the Liberal Democrats in the opinion polls may not necessarily amount to significant gains in terms of parliamentary seats, including predictions that even if the Liberal Democrats had the most votes, and Labour the least, it could be the case that Labour retains the most seats while the Lib Dems have the fewest.[6][7][8]

Normally governments can easily survive for a full parliamentary term on a majority of more than 20 seats over all other parties. Below that level there is a danger of by-elections and MPs crossing the floor of the House of Commons reducing the government to a minority such that it would be at increased risk of losing a vote of no confidence.

Polling since 2005

Immediately following the previous general election, the Labour Party held a double-digit lead in opinion polls. However, over the course of 2005, this lead was eroded somewhat. By December, the Conservative Party showed its first small leads in opinion polls following the controversial 90 days detention proposals and the election of David Cameron as Conservative leader.[9]

In early 2006, opinion polls were increasingly mixed with small leads given alternately to Labour and Conservative. From the May 2006 local elections, in which Labour suffered significant losses, the Conservatives took a small single-digit lead in opinion polls. This was the first consistent lead of the opinion polls that the Conservatives had enjoyed for 14 years.

Labour regained the lead in June 2007, following the resignation of Tony Blair as prime minister and the selection of Gordon Brown as his successor. Brown resisted calls from his party to hold a general election, despite opinion polls suggesting that Labour was capable of being re-elected at this stage. From November 2007, however, the Conservatives again took the lead and, from then, extended their lead into double digits, particularly in response to the MPs' expenses scandal and the economic recession along with the increased unemployment that resulted from it, although there was some evidence that the lead narrowed slightly towards the end of 2008 and again in late 2009. By the end of February 2010, Ipsos MORI, ICM, YouGov and ComRes polls had all found a sufficient narrowing of the Conservative lead for media speculation about a hung parliament to return - scenario which could have allowed Labour to cling onto power in a minority or coalition government.[10]

From 15 April 2010, following the first televised debate of the party leaders, however, polling data changed dramatically, with the Lib Dem vote proportion rising to 28–33%, and the Conservative vote proportion falling. In some polls, the Liberal Democrats took the lead from the Conservatives by a narrow margin which was unprecedented in the period since the Lib Dems were founded in 1988. Under UNS projections, this made a hung parliament highly probable, if Lib Dem performance had persisted.[11]

After the second debate on 22 April the polls, on average, placed the Conservatives in the lead on 33%, the Liberal Democrats in second on 30% and Labour in third on 28%. If these polls had reflected the election day results on a uniform swing nationwide, Labour would have had the most seats in a hung Parliament, and therefore it still appeared possible that Labour might remain in power as the main party in a minority or coalition government.

Exit poll

At 10 pm on election day, coinciding with the closure of the polls, the results of an exit poll collected for the BBC, Sky and ITV news services were announced. Data were gathered from individuals at 130 polling stations around the country. The results of the poll initially suggested a hung parliament with the Conservative Party 19 seats from a controlling majority; this was later adjusted to 21 seats. The distribution of seats amongst the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and other parties was initially suggested to be 307, 255, 59 and 29 respectively,[12] although the seat numbers were later changed to 303, 251, 69, and 27 respectively.[13]

Initial reaction to the exit poll by various commentators was of surprise at the apparent poor prospects for the Liberal Democrats[14] because it was odds with many opinion polls undertaken in the previous weeks. However, the actual results showed that the exit poll was a good predictor.

A later BBC Exit poll (05:36 BST) predicted the Conservatives on 306, 20 short of an overall majority, Labour on 262, and Liberal Democrats on 55.[13]

Graphical summaries

  Conservatives
  Labour
  Liberal Democrats
  UKIP
  BNP
  SNP
  Green
  Respect


The following graph shows YouGov poll results since the calling of the general election.

The following graph shows ComRes poll results recorded over the period April 11 – May 6, 2010, including annotations of the three TV debates.

Poll results

Poll results are initially listed in reverse chronological order showing the most recent first, using the date the fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

The figure given in the 'lead' column before the televised leaders' debates is the lead held by Labour or the Conservatives over the second placed of the two parties. For figures after the first debate, after which the Liberal Democrats were placed in first or second position in some polls, the second placed party is also noted in the column where applicable.

Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council, and abide by its disclosure rules. BPIX is not a member of the BPC, and does not publish detailed methodology and findings.

2010

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
6 MayElection Results (GB only)29.7%36.9%23.6%9.8%7.2%
5 MayIpsos MORI/Evening Standard1,21629%36%27%8%7%
4–5 MayYouGov/The Sun6,48328%35%28%9%7%
4–5 MayHarris Interactive/Daily Mail4,01429%35%27%7%6%
4–5 MayPopulus/The Times2,50528%37%27%8%9%
4–5 MayAngus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com2,28324%36%29%11%7%
4–5 MayOpinium/Daily Express1,38327%35%26%12%8%
4–5 MayComRes/ITV/The Independent1,02528%37%28%7%9%
3–4 MayICM/The Guardian1,52728%36%26%10%8%
3–4 MayYouGov/The Sun1,46130%35%24%11%5%
29 Apr–4 MayTNS-BMRB1,86427%33%29%11%4%
28 Apr–4 MayHarris Interactive/Metro78626%36%28%10%8%
2–3 MayComRes/ITV/The Independent1,02429%37%26%8%8%
2–3 MayYouGov/The Sun1,45528%35%28%9%7%
30 Apr – 3 MayOpinium/Daily Express1,87028%33%27%12%5%
1–2 MayYouGov/The Sun1,47528%34%29%9%5%
1–2 MayComRes/ITV/The Independent1,02429%37%26%8%8%
30 Apr – 2 MayICM/The Guardian1,02628%33%28%12%5%
30 Apr – 1 MayYouGov/Sunday Times1,48327%35%28%10%7%
30 Apr – 1 MayComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror1,01928%38%25%9%10%
30 AprYouGov/The Sun1,41228%34%28%10%6%
30 AprICM/Sunday Telegraph1,01929%36%27%8%7%
29–30 AprAngus Reid Public Opinion/Sunday Express1,87423%35%29%13%6%
29 Apr The third Prime Ministerial debate
28–29 AprYouGov/The Sun1,62327%34%28%11%6%
27–28 AprYouGov/The Sun1,53027%34%31%8%3%
26–27 AprYouGov/The Sun1,59829%33%28%10%4%
26–27 AprComRes/ITV News/The Independent1,00629%36%26%9%7%
26–27 AprPopulus/The Times1,51027%36%28%8%8%
21–27 AprTNS-BMRB2,07827%34%30%9%4%
25–26 AprYouGov/The Sun1,49128%33%29%10%4%
25–26 AprComRes/ITV News/The Independent1,00529%33%29%9%4%
23–26 AprOpinium/Daily Express1,94225%34%28%13%6%
23–26 AprAngus Reid Public Opinion/The Economist2,43323%33%30%14%3%
20–26 AprHarris Interactive/Metro1,67825%32%30%13%2%
24–25 AprYouGov/The Sun1,46628%34%30%8%4%
24–25 AprComRes/ITV News/The Independent1,00328%32%31%9%1%
23–25 AprICM/The Guardian1,03128%33%30%8%3%
23–24 AprYouGov/Sunday Times1,41227%35%28%9%7%
23–24 AprComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror1,00628%34%29%9%5%
23 AprICM/Sunday Telegraph1,02026%35%31%8%4%
23 AprIpsos MORI/News of the World1,24530%36%23%11%6%
22–23 AprYouGov/The Sun1,38129%34%29%8%5%
22 Apr The second televised Prime Ministerial debate
21–22 AprYouGov/The Sun1,57629%34%28%9%5%
20–21 AprYouGov/The Sun1,54527%33%31%9%2%
19–20 AprYouGov/The Sun1,59526%31%34%9%3%
19–20 AprAngus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com1,95323%32%33%12%1%
19–20 AprComRes/ITV News/The Independent1,01525%35%27%13%8%
19–20 AprPopulus/The Times1,50128%32%31%9%1%
18–20 AprIpsos MORI/The Standard1,25328%32%32%8%Tie
14–20 AprTNS-BMRB1,95329%34%30%7%4%
18–19 AprComRes/ITV News/The Independent1,01226%35%26%13%9%
18–19 AprYouGov/The Sun1,50927%33%31%8%2%
16–19 AprOpinium/Daily Express1,95726%32%29%13%3%
16–19 AprAngus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com2,00424%32%32%12%Tie
14–19 AprHarris Interactive/Metro1,79226%31%30%13%1%
17–18 AprComRes/ITV News/The Independent1,00328%32%28%12%4%
17–18 AprYouGov/The Sun1,43326%32%33%8%1%
16–18 AprICM/The Guardian1,02428%33%30%9%3%
16–17 AprYouGov/Sunday Times1,49030%33%29%8%3%
16–17 AprComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror1,00627%31%29%13%2%
15–16 AprYouGov/The Sun1,29028%33%30%9%3%
15 AprComRes/ITV News4,03228%35%24%13%7%
15 Apr The first ever televised Prime Ministerial debate
14–15 AprICM/Sunday Telegraph1,03329%34%27%10%5%
14–15 AprYouGov/The Sun1,49031%37%22%10%6%
13–14 AprYouGov/The Sun1,57832%41%18%9%9%
12–13 AprComRes/ITV News/The Independent1,00129%35%21%15%6%
12–13 AprYouGov/The Sun1,58331%39%20%9%8%
8–13 AprHarris Interactive/Metro1,52327%36%23%14%9%
7–13 AprTNS-BMRB1,91633%36%22%9%3%
12 AprPopulus/The Times1,52533%36%21%9%3%
11–12 AprComRes/ITV News/The Independent1,00231%36%19%14%5%
11–12 AprAngus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com2,00628%38%22%12%10%
11–12 AprYouGov/The Sun1,49333%39%20%8%6%
9–12 AprOpinium/Daily Express1,82531%39%17%13%8%
10–11 AprComRes/ITV News/The Independent1,00430%37%20%13%7%
10–11 AprYouGov/The Sun1,45531%37%20%12%6%
9–11 AprICM/The Guardian1,02431%37%20%11%6%
9–10 AprYouGov/Sunday Times1,43132%40%18%10%8%
9–10 AprComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror1,00132%39%16%13%7%
8–9 AprYouGov/The Sun1,52730%40%20%10%10%
7–8 AprHarris Interactive/Daily Mail1,01227%37%22%14%10%
7–8 AprYouGov/The Sun1,62631%40%18%11%9%
7 AprICM/Sunday Telegraph1,03230%38%21%10%8%
6–7 AprYouGov/The Sun1,48432%37%19%12%5%
6–7 AprAngus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com2,19326%37%22%14%11%
6 AprPopulus/The Times1,50732%39%21%8%7%
6 Apr Prime Minister Gordon Brown announces his intention to seek a general election to be held on 6 May 2010
5–6 AprYouGov/The Sun1,45632%40%17%11%8%
31 Mar-6 AprHarris Interactive/Metro2,08028%37%20%15%9%
4–5 AprYouGov/The Sun1,62031%41%18%11%10%
2–5 AprOpinium/Daily Express1,90329%39%17%15%10%
1–3 AprICM/Guardian1,00133%37%21%9%4%
1–2 AprYouGov/Sunday Times1,50329%39%20%12%10%
31 Mar-1 AprAngus Reid Public Opinion/Sunday Express1,99127%38%20%15%11%
31 Mar-1 AprYouGov/The Sun1,55231%39%19%11%8%
30–31 MarICM/Guardian1,00329%38%23%10%9%
30–31 MarYouGov/The Sun1,61532%38%19%11%6%
30–31 MarAngus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com2,01328%37%22%13%9%
29–30 MarYouGov/The Sun1,68131%38%19%12%7%
24–30 MarTNS-BMRB1,81933%38%19%10%5%
28–29 MarYouGov/The Sun1,61432%39%18%11%7%
26–29 MarOpinium/Daily Express1,78028%38%18%16%10%
23–29 MarHarris Interactive/Metro1,13327%37%19%17%10%
26–28 MarComRes/The Independent1,00130%37%20%13%7%
25–26 MarYouGov/Sunday Times1,53332%37%19%13%5%
24–25 MarICM/News of the World1,00331%39%19%11%8%
24–25 MarYouGov/The Sun1,48333%37%18%12%4%
23–24 MarYouGov/The Sun1,55434%36%17%13%2%
22–23 MarYouGov/The Sun1,75633%37%18%12%4%
21–22 MarYouGov/The Sun1,56032%36%20%12%4%
19–22 MarIpsos MORI/Daily Mirror1,50330%35%21%14%5%
19–22 MarOpinium/Daily Express1,97530%37%15%18%7%
17–22 MarHarris Interactive/Metro2,11728%35%17%20%7%
18–19 MarYouGov/Sunday Times1,54731%38%19%13%7%
17–18 MarICM/News of the World1,00232%38%19%10%6%
17–18 MarYouGov/The Sun1,67132%36%20%12%4%
16–17 MarYouGov/The Sun1,67632%36%20%11%4%
15–16 MarAngus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com2,00326%39%21%15%13%
15–16 MarYouGov/The Sun1,46032%37%19%12%5%
10–16 MarHarris Interactive/Metro1,93428%36%18%18%8%
14–15 MarYouGov/The Sun1,46632%37%21%10%5%
12–15 MarOpinium/Daily Express1,95128%39%16%17%11%
12–14 MarICM/The Guardian1,00231%40%20%9%9%
11–12 MarYouGov/Sunday Times1,50733%37%17%12%4%
10–11 MarICM/Sunday Telegraph1,00731%38%21%10%7%
10–11 MarYouGov/The Sun1,43434%37%17%12%3%
9–10 MarYouGov/The Sun1,47332%37%17%14%5%
9–10 MarAngus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com2,00326%39%18%17%13%
8–9 MarYouGov/The Sun1,52432%36%20%12%4%
7–8 MarYouGov/The Sun1,74734%39%16%11%5%
5–8 MarOpinium/Daily Express1,96030%37%16%16%7%
3–8 MarHarris Interactive/Metro1,49829%37%18%16%8%
4–5 MarYouGov/Sunday Times1,55833%38%17%12%5%
3–4 MarICM/News of the World1,00531%40%18%11%9%
3–4 MarYouGov/The Sun1,64032%38%17%13%6%
2–3 MarYouGov/The Sun1,66132%38%19%12%6%
25 Feb – 3 MarTNS-BMRB1,97331%39%19%11%8%
1–2 MarYouGov/The Sun1,47933%38%16%13%5%
28 Feb-1 MarYouGov/The Sun1,50532%39%17%12%7%
26–28 FebComRes/The Independent1,00532%37%19%12%5%
25–26 FebYouGov/Sunday Times1,43635%37%17%11%2%
24–25 FebYouGov/The Sun1,47233%39%16%12%6%
23–24 FebYouGov/The Sun1,47332%38%19%10%6%
18–24 FebTNS-BMRB1,95432%36%21%12%4%
22–23 FebYouGov/The Sun1,46932%38%17%12%6%
21–22 FebYouGov/The Sun1,57833%39%17%12%6%
19–22 FebIpsos MORI/Daily Telegraph1,53332%37%19%12%5%
16–22 FebHarris Interative/Metro91830%39%22%9%9%
19–21 FebICM/The Guardian1,00430%37%20%13%7%
18–19 FebYouGov/Sunday Times1,47233%39%17%11%6%
16–19 FebAngus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com4,00426%38%19%16%12%
17–18 FebYouGov/The Sun1,55832%39%18%11%7%
16–17 FebComRes/Theos1,08530%38%20%11%8%
16–17 FebAngus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com2,00226%40%18%16%14%
16–17 FebYouGov/The Sun2,14530%39%18%13%9%
10–11 FebComRes/The Independent1,00929%40%21%10%11%
9–10 FebAngus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com2,00225%38%20%16%13%
5–7 FebPopulus/The Times1,50230%40%20%11%10%
3–4 FebICM/Sunday Telegraph1,00130%39%20%11%9%
29–31 JanComRes/The Independent1,00131%38%19%12%7%
29–30 JanBPIX/Mail on Sunday[15]1,52430%39%18%13%9%
28–29 JanYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,05431%38%19%12%7%
26–28 JanYouGov/The People2,04431%40%18%11%9%
26–28 JanIpsos MORI/Daily Mirror1,00132%40%16%12%8%
26–27 JanAngus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com2,00424%40%19%16%16%
22–24 JanICM/The Guardian1,00029%40%21%10%11%
20–21 JanComRes/Sunday Mirror1,00429%38%19%14%9%
14–15 JanYouGov/Sunday Times2,03331%40%18%11%9%
13–14 JanComRes/The Independent on Sunday1,00529%42%19%10%13%
9–10 JanAngus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com2,01024%40%20%17%16%
8–10 JanPopulus/The Times1,50928%41%19%12%13%
6–7 JanICM/Sunday Telegraph1,00330%40%18%12%10%
6–7 JanYouGov/The Sun2,83230%42%16%12%12%
5–6 JanYouGov/The Sun4,16731%40%17%12%9%

2009

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
29–30 DecYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,84830%40%17%12%10%
19–20 DecComRes/The Independent1,00629%38%19%14%9%
16–18 DecAngus Reid Strategies/Political Betting.com2,01024%40%20%15%16%
15–17 DecYouGov/The People2,05228%40%18%14%12%
11–13 DecICM/The Guardian1,00931%40%18%11%9%
11–13 DecIpsos MORI/The Observer1,01726%43%20%12%17%
10–11 DecYouGov/Sunday Times2,04431%40%16%13%9%
9–10 DecComRes/The Independent on Sunday1,00124%41%21%14%17%
8–10 DecAngus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com2,00223%40%19%19%17%
4–6 DecPopulus/The Times1,50530%38%20%12%8%
3–4 DecYouGov/Sunday Times2,09527%40%18%15%13%
2–3 DecICM/Sunday Telegraph1,00129%40%19%12%11%
27–29 NovComRes/The Independent1,00327%37%20%16%10%
24–26 NovYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,00429%39%19%13%10%
20–23 NovAngus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com2,00422%39%21%18%17%
13–15 NovIpsos MORI/The Observer1,00631%37%17%13%6%
13–15 NovICM/The Guardian1,01029%42%19%10%13%
12–13 NovYouGov/Sunday Times2,02627%41%18%14%14%
12 Nov Glasgow North East by-election
11–12 NovComRes/The Independent on Sunday1,00725%39%17%19%14%
6–8 NovPopulus/The Times1,50429%39%18%14%10%
4–6 NovAngus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com2,00024%38%20%17%14%
4–5 NovYouGov/Channel 4 News1,02127%41%17%16%14%
28–29 OctICM/Sunday Telegraph1,00725%42%21%13%17%
27–29 OctYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,02428%41%16%15%13%
23–25 OctComRes/The Independent1,00427%40%18%15%13%
22–23 OctYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,31427%40%19%14%13%
16–18 OctICM/The Guardian1,00227%44%18%11%17%
16–18 OctIpsos MORI99626%43%19%11%17%
15–16 OctAngus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com2,07723%40%20%15%17%
15–16 OctYouGov/Sunday Times2,02530%41%17%12%11%
14–15 OctComRes/The Independent on Sunday1,00828%40%19%13%12%
9–11 OctPopulus/The Times1,50930%40%18%12%10%
8–9 OctYouGov/The Sun2,16128%42%18%12%14%
8–9 OctYouGov/Sky News1,06427%44%17%12%17%
7–9 OctICM/News of the World1,00826%45%18%10%19%
7–8 OctYouGov/Sky News1,07431%40%18%11%9%
6–7 OctYouGov/Sky News1,03929%43%17%11%14%
5–6 OctYouGov/Sky News1,22328%41%18%13%13%
4–5 OctYouGov/Sky News1,10227%40%20%13%13%
3 OctYouGov/The People2,02728%40%18%14%12%
1–2 OctYouGov/Sky News1,05329%41%17%13%12%
30 Sep-1 OctComRes/The Independent on Sunday1,02228%40%19%13%12%
30 Sep-1 OctYouGov/Sky News1,08526%40%20%15%14%
29–30 SepYouGov/Sky News1,07830%37%21%12%7%
28–29 SepYouGov/Sky News1,02429%40%18%13%11%
27–28 SepYouGov/Sky News1,05129%39%20%13%10%
25–27 SepIpsos MORI1,00324%36%25%15%11%
25–27 SepComRes/The Independent1,00323%38%23%16%15%
24–25 SepYouGov/Sky News1,05924%40%21%14%16%
23–24 SepYouGov/Sky News1,05725%38%23%14%13%
23–24 SepICM/News of the World1,00326%40%23%11%14%
22–24 SepYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,02626%39%20%15%13%
22–23 SepYouGov/Sky News1,03628%38%19%15%10%
21–22 SepYouGov/Sky News1,06227%39%20%13%12%
20–21 SepYouGov/Sky News1,08130%39%17%14%9%
18–20 SepICM/The Guardian1,00126%43%19%12%17%
11–13 SepPopulus/The Times1,50627%41%18%14%14%
10–11 SepYouGov/Sunday Times2,00927%41%17%15%14%
4–6 SepComRes/The Independent1,00524%40%21%15%16%
4–6 SepYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,57327%40%18%15%13%
27–28 AugYouGov/The Sun1,99628%42%17%14%14%
25–27 AugYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,19926%42%18%14%16%
21–23 AugIpsos MORI1,01326%43%17%13%17%
21–23 AugICM/The Guardian1,00425%41%19%14%16%
19–20 AugComRes/The Independent on Sunday1,01324%41%18%16%17%
13–14 AugYouGov/Sunday Times2,00728%42%18%13%14%
12–13 AugICM/Sunday Mirror1,00526%43%19%12%17%
28–30 JulyYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,33427%41%18%15%14%
24–26 JulyComRes/The Independent1,00824%42%18%16%18%
23 July Norwich North by-election
21–23 JulyYouGov/The People2,21825%40%20%16%15%
17–19 JulyIpsos MORI1,01224%40%18%18%16%
17–19 JulyPopulus/The Times1,50426%38%20%16%12%
16–17 JulyYouGov/Sunday Times1,95625%42%18%15%17%
15–16 JulyComRes/The Independent on Sunday1,01023%38%22%16%15%
10–11 JulyICM/The Guardian1,00027%41%20%12%14%
1–3 JulyYouGov/Fabian Society2,00126%39%19%17%13%
26–28 JuneComRes/The Independent1,00725%36%19%20%11%
24–26 JuneYouGov/The People2,01724%40%17%19%16%
23–25 JuneYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,23325%38%18%19%13%
19–21 JuneIpsos MORI1,00421%38%19%23%17%
17–18 JuneComRes/The Independent on Sunday1,01222%39%18%21%17%
10–17 JuneHarris Interative/Metro2,08120%35%16%29%15%
12–14 JuneIpsos MORI/UNISON1,25225%39%19%17%14%
12–14 JuneICM/The Guardian1,00627%39%18%15%12%
11–12 JuneYouGov/Sunday Times1,90224%40%18%19%16%
9–10 JunePopulus/The Times1,00124%36%19%21%12%
8 June 2009 European Parliament election
5–7 JuneComRes/The Independent1,00122%38%20%20%16%
5 June 2009 United Kingdom local elections
2–3 JuneYouGov/Daily Telegraph4,01421%37%19%23%16%
29–31 MayComRes/The Independent1,00522%30%18%30%8%
29–31 MayIpsos MORI1,00118%40%18%24%22%
27–29 MayYouGov/Daily Telegraph5,01622%39%18%21%17%
27–28 MayICM/Sunday Telegraph1,01322%40%25%13%15%
27–28 MayPopulus/The Times1,00121%41%15%23%20%
19–20 MayPopulus/ITV News1,00027%39%17%18%12%
15–17 MayICM/The Guardian1,00228%39%20%14%11%
14–16 MayYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,23523%39%19%19%16%
13–14 MayComRes/The Independent on Sunday1,01021%40%18%21%19%
13–14 MayYouGov/The Sun1,81422%41%19%18%19%
8–10 MayPopulus/The Times1,50426%39%22%13%13%
8–9 MayBPIX/Mail on Sunday[15]Unknown[15]23%45%17%15%22%
7–8 MayYouGov/Sunday Times2,20927%43%18%12%16%
24–26 AprilComRes/The Independent1,00326%45%17%12%19%
23–24 AprilYouGov/Sunday People1,85527%45%17%12%18%
22–23 AprilYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,89627%45%18%10%18%
17–19 AprilIpsos MORI1,01128%41%22%9%13%
17–19 AprilICM/The Guardian1,00530%40%19%11%10%
15–16 AprilMarketing Sciences/Sunday Telegraph1,00726%43%21%10%17%
3–5 AprilPopulus/The Times1,51230%43%18%9%13%
3–4 AprilYouGov/Sunday Times2,12534%41%16%10%7%
27–29 MarchComRes/The Independent1,00228%40%18%14%12%
25–26 MarchICM/Sunday Telegraph1,00331%44%18%8%13%
24–26 MarchYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,10431%41%17%11%10%
18–19 MarchComRes/The Independent on Sunday1,00230%41%17%12%11%
13–15 MarchICM/The Guardian1,00430%42%20%8%12%
13–15 MarchIpsos MORI1,00732%42%14%11%10%
12–13 MarchYouGov/Sunday Times1,84031%41%17%11%10%
6–8 MarchPopulus/The Times1,50430%42%19%9%12%
27 Feb-1 MarComRes/The Independent1,00628%44%17%12%16%
24–26 FebYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,06331%41%15%12%10%
20–22 FebICM/The Guardian1,00430%42%18%10%12%
13–15 FebIpsos MORI1,00128%48%17%7%20%
12–13 FebYouGov/Sunday Times1,71132%44%14%10%12%
11–12 FebComRes/The Independent on Sunday1,00225%41%22%12%16%
6–8 FebPopulus/The Times1,50428%42%18%12%14%
4–5 FebICM/Sunday Telegraph1,01028%40%22%10%12%
27–29 JanYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,33832%43%16%10%11%
23–25 JanICM/The Guardian1,00332%44%16%8%12%
21–22 JanComRes/The Independent1,01228%43%16%13%15%
16–18 JanIpsos MORI1,00530%44%17%9%14%
15–16 JanYouGov/Sunday Times2,07732%45%14%9%13%
14–15 JanComRes/The Independent on Sunday1,00932%41%15%12%9%
9–11 JanPopulus/The Times1,50033%43%15%9%10%
7–8 JanYouGov/The Sun1,83534%41%15%10%7%

2008

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
19–21 DecComRes/The Independent1,00034%39%16%11%5%
16–18 DecYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,24135%42%14%9%7%
12–14 DecIpsos MORI1,00035%39%15%11%4%
12–14 DecICM/The Guardian1,00333%38%19%10%5%
11–12 DecYouGov/Sunday Times2,09835%41%15%10%6%
10–11 DecComRes/The Independent on Sunday1,00336%37%14%12%1%
10–11 DecIpsos MORI1,00736%41%11%12%5%
5–7 DecPopulus/The Times1,50535%39%17%9%4%
28–30 NovComRes/The Independent1,00536%37%17%10%1%
27–28 NovIpsos MORI/The Observer1,01732%43%15%10%11%
25–26 NovICM/The Guardian1,02730%45%18%7%15%
24–25 NovYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,55636%40%14%10%4%
19–20 NovICM/Sunday Mirror1,01031%42%19%8%11%
14–16 NovIpsos MORI1,00237%40%12%11%3%
13–14 NovYouGov/Sunday Times2,08036%41%14%10%5%
12–13 NovComRes/The Independent on Sunday1,01032%43%12%13%11%
7–9 NovPopulus/The Times1,50335%41%16%8%6%
5–6 NovICM/Sunday Telegraph1,00530%43%18%9%13%
6 Nov Glenrothes by-election
2 NovPBPIX[15]?31%45%13%11%14%
27–29 OctYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,27133%42%15%10%9%
24–26 OctComRes/The Independent1,00131%39%16%14%8%
17–19 OctIpsos MORI1,00430%45%14%11%15%
17–19 OctICM/The Guardian1,00730%42%21%7%12%
16–18 OctBPIX[15]2,04630%46%13%11%16%
15–17 OctYouGov/Daily Mirror2,02934%42%14%10%8%
15–16 OctComRes/The Independent on Sunday1,00531%40%16%14%9%
9–10 OctYouGov/Sunday Times1,94133%43%14%10%10%
3–5 OctPopulus/The Times1,50330%45%15%10%15%
1–3 OctYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,04831%45%15%9%14%
26–28 SepComRes/The Independent1,01729%41%18%12%12%
24–26 SepBPIX[15]2,02031%43%17%9%12%
24–25 SepICM/The Guardian1,01232%41%18%9%9%
23–24 SepYouGov/The Sun1,53631%41%16%12%10%
17–18 SepComRes/The Independent on Sunday1,01027%39%21%12%12%
17–19 SepYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,22724%44%20%12%20%
12–14 SepIpsos MORI1,01724%52%12%12%28%
10–12 SepYouGov/Sunday Times2,16127%46%16%11%19%
3–4 SepComRes/The Independent1,01325%44%17%14%19%
29–31 AugPopulus/The Times1,50627%43%18%12%16%
26–27 AugYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,26726%45%16%13%19%
20–21 AugComRes/The Independent on Sunday1,01425%46%16%13%21%
15–17 AugICM/The Guardian1,00229%44%19%8%15%
15–17 AugIpsos MORI1,00524%48%16%12%24%
14–15 AugYouGov/Sunday Times1,74525%45%18%12%20%
6–8 AugYouGov/News of the World2,03126%46%17%11%20%
31 Jul – 2 AugBPIX[15]1,33324%47%16%13%23%
30 Jul – 1 AugICM/Sunday Express1,00129%45%16%10%16%
29–31 JulyYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,94925%47%16%12%22%
25–27 JulyPopulus/The Times1,00227%43%18%12%16%
23–25 JulyYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,12026%45%17%12%19%
23–24 JulyComRes/The Independent1,02124%46%18%12%22%
24 July Glasgow East by-election
18–20 JulyIpsos MORI1,01627%47%15%11%20%
18–20 JulyICM/The Guardian1,00728%43%19%10%15%
16–17 JulyComRes/The Independent on Sunday1,01624%45%16%15%21%
10–11 JulyYouGov/Sunday Times1,83225%47%16%12%22%
4–6 JulyPopulus/The Times1,50728%41%19%12%13%
25–26 JuneComRes/The Independent1,00725%46%18%11%21%
23–25 JuneYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,16328%46%15%11%18%
26 June Henley by-election
20–22 JuneICM/The Guardian1,00025%45%20%10%20%
18–20 JuneBPIX[15]2,38526%49%14%11%23%
13–15 JuneIpsos MORI1,01228%45%16%11%17%
11–12 JuneComRes/The Independent on Sunday1,01226%44%17%13%18%
12–13 JuneYouGov/Sunday Times1,76925%47%18%10%22%
6–8 JunePopulus/The Times1,50825%45%20%10%20%
4–5 JuneICM/The Sunday Telegraph1,02326%42%21%11%16%
30 May-1 JuneComRes/The Independent1,00630%44%16%10%14%
27–29 MayYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,24123%47%18%12%24%
22 May Crewe and Nantwich by-election
16–18 MayICM/The Guardian1,00827%41%22%10%14%
15–16 MayYouGov/Sunday Times1,85425%45%18%12%20%
14–15 MayComRes/The Independent on Sunday1,00426%43%19%12%17%
7–8 MayYouGov/The Sun1,57123%49%17%11%26%
2–4 MayPopulus/The Times1,50929%40%19%11%11%
1 May 2008 United Kingdom local elections
25–27 AprComRes/The Independent1,00526%40%20%14%14%
23–24 AprICM/The Sunday Telegraph1,01029%39%20%12%10%
21–23 AprYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,07326%44%17%13%18%
17–22 AprIpsos-MORI/The Observer1,05931%40%19%10%9%
18–20 AprICM/The Gurdian1,00034%39%19%8%5%
16–17 AprPopulus/Sunday Mirror1,00630%40%19%11%10%
10–11 AprYouGov/Sunday Times1,75528%44%17%11%16%
8–10 AprPopulus/The Times1,50233%39%17%6%6%
2–3 AprICM/The Sunday Telegraph1,01032%43%18%7%11%
28–30 MarComRes/The Independent1,00431%38%17%14%7%
25–27 MarYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,92629%43%17%11%14%
13–18 MarIpsos MORI1,98335%40%18%7%5%
14–16 MarICM/The Guardian1,00329%42%21%8%13%
13–14 MarYouGov/Sunday Times2,31127%43%16%13%16%
12–13 MarICM/News of the World1,00231%40%20%9%9%
7–9 MarPopulus/The Times1,50234%37%19%10%3%
25–27 FebYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,01133%40%16%11%7%
21–26 FebIpsos MORI2,06337%39%16%8%2%
22–24 FebComRes/The Independent1,01030%41%17%12%11%
18–20 FebYouGov/The Economist2,11834%40%16%11%6%
15–17 FebICM/The Guardian1,00334%37%21%8%3%
14–15 FebYouGov/Sunday Times2,46932%41%16%11%9%
1–3 FebPopulus/The Times1,50431%40%17%12%9%
30–31 JanICM/The Sunday Telegraph1,01232%37%21%10%5%
25–27 JanComRes/The Independent1,00330%38%17%15%8%
21–23 JanYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,99233%41%16%10%8%
17–22 JanIpsos MORI2,04538%37%16%9%1%
18–20 JanICM/The Guardian1,00935%37%20%8%2%
10–11 JanYouGov/Sunday Times2,13933%43%14%11%10%
9–10 JanICM/The Sunday Telegraph1,01133%40%18%9%7%
9–10 JanIpsos MORI/The Sun1,00632%42%15%11%10%
4–6 JanPopulus/The Times1,50933%37%19%11%4%

2007

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
18–19 DecICM/The Guardian1,03434%39%18%9%5%
17–19 DecYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,06031%43%16%11%12%
18 Dec Nick Clegg becomes leader of the Liberal Democrats
14–16 DecComRes/The Independent1,00430%41%16%12%11%
13–14 DecYouGov/Sunday Times1,48132%45%14%10%13%
7–9 DecPopulus/The Times1,50632%40%16%11%8%
29 Nov-7 DecIpsos MORI1,85935%42%14%9%7%
28–29 NovICM/News of the World1,01130%41%19%10%11%
26–29 NovYouGov/Daily Telegraph4,00432%43%14%11%11%
23–27 NovIpsos MORI1,93332%41%17%10%9%
23–25 NovComRes/The Independent1,00927%41%18%15%13%
21–22 NovICM/The Guardian1,00531%37%21%10%6%
21–22 NovYouGov/Channel 4 News1,60032%41%14%13%9%
14–16 NovYouGov/Sunday Times1,98335%41%13%11%6%
8–10 NovICM/Sunday Express1,00135%43%15%7%8%
2–4 NovPopulus/The Times1,50337%36%16%11%1%
31 Oct-1 NovIpsos MORI/The Sun1,01335%40%13%12%5%
26–28 OctICM/The Guardian1,01135%40%18%7%5%
26–28 OctComRes/The Independent1,00233%42%15%10%8%
22–24 OctYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,10538%41%11%10%3%
18–23 OctIpsos MORI/The Observer1,98741%40%13%6%1%
10–11 OctICM/Sunday Telegraph1,01036%43%14%8%7%
10 OctIpsos MORI/The Sun1,00738%41%11%10%3%
5–6 OctYouGov/Sunday Times1,75738%41%11%10%3%
5–7 OctPopulus/The Times1,00840%38%12%10%2%
3–4 OctYouGov/Channel 4 News1,74140%36%13%11%4%
3–4 OctICM/The Guardian1,00838%38%16%8%Tie
2–3 OctPopulus/The Times1,00039%36%15%10%3%
26–28 SepYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,16543%32%15%10%11%
27–28 SepIpsos MORI/The Observer1,00041%34%16%9%7%
26–27 SepPopulus/The Times1,00241%31%17%10%10%
20–26 SepIpsos MORI1,96444%31%15%10%13%
24–25 SepYouGov/Channel 4 News1,34144%33%13%11%11%
20–22 SepIpsos MORI/The Sun1,00942%34%14%10%8%
19–21 SepYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,08539%33%16%12%6%
19–20 SepICM/Sunday Mirror1,02939%33%19%9%6%
13–16 SepICM/The Guardian1,00540%32%20%8%8%
13–14 SepYouGov/Sunday Times1,94239%34%15%12%5%
11–12 SepComRes/The Independent1,00537%34%15%14%3%
31 Aug-2 SepPopulus/The Times1,50637%36%18%9%1%
29–31 AugYouGov/GMTV2,15438%35%15%12%3%
29–30 AugComRes/The Independent1,01635%36%14%14%1%
23–29 AugIpsos MORI/The Sun1,94141%36%16%7%5%
25–28 AugPopulus/Conservative Party53037%36%16%10%1%
24–28 AugYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,26641%33%14%12%8%
22–23 AugICM/The Guardian1,01639%34%18%9%5%
9–10 AugYouGov/Sunday Times1,96642%32%14%12%10%
8–10 AugICM/Sunday Mirror1,00739%33%18%10%6%
8–9 AugIpsos MORI/The Sun53138%33%15%14%5%
27–29 JulyPopulus/The Times1,51139%33%15%13%6%
27–29 JulyCommunicate/The Independent1,00637%34%16%14%3%
23–25 JulyYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,87741%32%16%11%9%
20–22 JulyICM/The Guardian1,00538%32%20%10%6%
19–20 JulyYouGov/Sunday Times1,66440%33%15%12%7%
12–17 JulyIpsos MORI/The Observer1,91941%35%15%9%6%
4–5 JulyICM/Sunday Mirror1,00637%35%17%10%2%
1 JulyPopulus/The Times1,50437%34%18%11%3%
28–29 JuneYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,88638%35%15%12%3%
27–28 JuneICM/The Guardian1,00539%35%18%8%4%
27 June Gordon Brown becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
22–24 JuneCommunicate/The Independent1,00532%37%18%13%5%
14–20 JuneIpsos MORI/The Observer1,97039%36%15%10%3%
14–15 JuneYouGov/Sunday Times1,75335%37%14%14%2%
1–3 JunePopulus1,50333%36%17%14%3%
30–31 MayICM/Sunday Telegraph1,01432%37%21%10%5%
25–28 MayCommunicate/The Independent1,00331%35%19%15%4%
21–23 MayYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,05033%39%15%13%6%
18–20 MayICM/The Guardian1,00332%34%21%12%2%
11–13 MayPopulus/The Times1,50433%37%17%13%4%
10–11 MayYouGov/Sunday Times1,96234%38%15%14%4%
3 May 2007 United Kingdom local elections
23–25 AprYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,01932%37%18%14%5%
19–25 AprIpsos MORI/The Observer1,16331%38%20%11%7%
20–22 AprICM/The Guardian1,00530%37%21%12%7%
13–15 AprPopulus/The Times1,50329%37%20%14%8%
4–5 AprYouGov/Sunday Times2,21831%39%16%14%8%
26–28 MarYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,04232%39%17%13%7%
23–25 MarCommunicate1,00231%35%20%14%4%
21–22 MarYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,75231%39%16%14%8%
16–18 MarICM/The Guardian1,01131%41%18%10%10%
15–16 MarYouGov/Sunday Times1,89732%38%16%14%6%
9–15 MarIpsos MORI1,98333%41%17%9%8%
2–4 MarPopulus/The Times1,50930%38%18%14%8%
23–25 FebCommunicate1,00129%40%17%14%11%
19–21 FebYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,29232%37%17%14%5%
16–18 FebICM/The Guardian1,00031%40%19%10%9%
8–9 FebYouGov/Sunday Times2,01932%37%18%14%5%
2–4 FebPopulus/The Times1,50933%36%19%12%3%
19–29 JanIpsos MORI94935%39%19%7%4%
26–28 JanCommunicate1,00829%34%21%16%5%
22–24 JanYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,24531%38%18%13%7%
19–21 JanICM/The Guardian1,00431%37%23%9%6%
5–7 JanPopulus/The Times1,50732%39%18%11%7%

2006

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
20–22 DecYouGov/Sunday Times1,91832%37%15%15%5%
18–20 DecYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,87433%37%17%13%4%
19–20 DecCommunicate1,00937%36%14%14%1%
15–17 DecICM/The Guardian1,00632%40%18%10%8%
9–12 DecIpsos MORI1,93836%37%18%9%1%
8–10 DecPopulus/The Times1,51333%34%19%14%1%
28–30 NovYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,97932%37%16%15%5%
29–30 NovICM/News of the World1,00631%39%20%10%8%
24–26 NovCommunicate1,00436%34%17%12%2%
17–19 NovICM/The Guardian1,00032%37%22%9%5%
9–14 NovIpsos MORI1,11533%35%20%12%2%
3–5 NovPopulus/The Times1,51033%36%20%11%3%
24–26 OctYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,72232%39%16%13%7%
20–22 OctCommunicate97732%38%14%15%6%
20–22 OctICM/The Guardian1,01929%39%22%9%10%
12–16 OctIpsos MORI/Financial Times1,11337%35%18%10%2%
6–8 OctPopulus/The Times1,51535%36%18%11%1%
4–5 OctICM/Sunday Telegraph1,00532%38%20%10%6%
28–30 SepICM/Sunday Mirror1,02935%36%19%11%1%
27–29 SepYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,84936%36%16%12%Tie
21–22 SepYouGov/Sunday Times1,54633%37%18%12%4%
19–22 SepYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,73331%38%18%13%7%
19–20 SepICM/The Guardian1,06632%36%22%10%4%
13–14 SepICM/Sunday Mirror1,00333%37%21%8%4%
13–14 SepYouGov/The Sun1,51931%38%18%14%7%
6–7 SepYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,50432%40%17%11%8%
31 Aug – 6 SepIpsos MORI/Sunday Times1,18636%35%19%10%1%
1–3 SepPopulus/The Times1,50432%36%20%13%4%
22–24 AugYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,75731%38%18%13%7%
18–20 AugICM/The Guardian1,00731%40%22%8%9%
24–26 JulyYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,63333%38%18%11%5%
20–24 JulyIpsos MORI1,89732%36%24%8%4%
21–23 JulyICM/The Guardian1,00135%39%17%9%4%
7–9 JulyPopulus/The Times1,51234%36%19%11%2%
29 June By-elections in Blaenau Gwent and Bromley & Chiselhurst
28–29 JuneICM/Sunday Telegraph1,00335%36%18%11%1%
26–28 JuneYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,96233%39%18%10%6%
22–26 JuneIpsos MORI1,93133%36%21%10%3%
21–23 JuneYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,00932%39%17%12%7%
16–18 JuneICM/The Guardian1,00532%37%21%9%5%
8–12 JuneIpsos MORI/The Observer1,97534%41%18%7%7%
2–4 JunePopulus/The Times1,50534%37%18%11%3%
25–30 MayIpsos MORI1,98431%41%18%10%10%
23–25 MayYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,10232%38%16%14%6%
19–21 MayICM/The Guardian1,00134%38%20%8%4%
8–9 MayYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,91031%37%17%15%6%
5–7 MayPopulus/The Times1,51630%38%20%11%8%
4 May 2006 United Kingdom local elections
27 Apr-2 MayIpsos MORI/Financial Times1,07832%36%21%11%4%
27–28 AprYouGov/Sunday Times1,93032%35%18%15%3%
21–23 AprICM/The Guardian1,00632%34%24%10%2%
20–22 AprIpsos MORI/The Sun1,00630%30%25%15%Tie
18–20 AprYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,07535%33%17%15%2%
31 Mar-2 AprPopulus/The Times1,50336%34%21%10%2%
27–29 MarYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,87336%36%18%10%Tie
16–21 MarIpsos MORI1,15539%34%19%8%5%
16–18 MarICM/Sunday Telegraph1,00337%33%21%9%4%
16–17 MarYouGov/Sunday Times1,81135%38%19%8%3%
10–12 MarICM/The Guardian1,00637%34%21%8%3%
3–5 MarPopulus/The Times1,50935%35%20%9% Tie
2 Mar Sir Menzies Campbell becomes leader of the Liberal Democrats
21–22 FebYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,01936%38%18%9%2%
16–20 FebIpsos MORI/The Sun1,14338%35%20%7%3%
17–19 FebICM/The Guardian1,00234%37%21%8%3%
9–10 FebYouGov/Sunday Times1,61739%37%15%10%2%
9 Feb Dunfermline and West Fife by-election
3–5 FebPopulus/The Times1,50836%37%18%9%1%
24–26 JanYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,09640%39%13%9%1%
19–23 JanIpsos MORI1,16338%40%17%5%2%
20–22 JanICM/The Guardian1,00936%37%19%7%1%
12–17 JanIpsos MORI/The Sun54139%39%15%7%Tie
6–8 JanPopulus/The Times1,50939%36%16%9%3%

2005

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
15–18 DecICM/The Guardian1,00436%37%21%7%1%
13–15 DecYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,07136%38%18%8%2%
9–12 DecMORI/The Observer1,00031%40%20%9%9%
9–11 DecPopulus/The Times1,52138%35%19%8%3%
6–8 DecYouGov/Sunday Times2,08936%37%18%8%1%
7–8 DecICM/The Guardian1,00335%37%21%7%2%
6 Dec David Cameron becomes leader of the Conservative Party
5–6 DecYouGov/Sky News1,61236%36%18%10%Tie
22–24 NovYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,61637%35%20%8%2%
17–22 NovMORI1,08942%32%19%7%10%
18–20 NovICM/The Guardian1,01338%33%19%10%5%
4–6 NovPopulus/The Times1,51240%32%19%9%8%
2–3 NovICM/Sunday Telegraph1,01039%33%21%7%6%
25–27 OctYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,94740%32%19%9%8%
20–25 OctMORI1,90440%34%21%5%6%
19–20 OctICM/The Guardian1,00736%33%22%8%3%
7–9 OctPopulus/The Times1,50940%30%21%9%10%
5–6 OctICM/News of the World1,01538%32%22%8%5%
27–29 SepYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,18340%32%20%9%8%
22–26 SepMORI1,13239%29%25%7%10%
16–17 SepICM/The Guardian1,01340%31%21%8%9%
8–9 SepYouGov/Sunday Times1,85637%32%21%10%5%
2–4 SepPopulus/The Times1,50637%35%20%8%2%
19–24 AugYouGov/Daily Telegraph40%33%20%7%7%
11–15 AugMORI1,19139%31%24%6%8%
12–14 AugICM/The Guardian1,00638%31%22%9%7%
26–28 JulyYouGov/Daily Telegraph40%31%21%8%9%
22–24 JulyPopulus/The Times1,50640%28%22%10%12%
14–18 JulyMORI/The Observer1,22741%28%25%6%13%
15–17 JulyICM/The Guardian1,00539%31%23%7%8%
28–30 JuneYouGov/Daily Telegraph3,71738%33%20%9%5%
16–20 JuneMORI1,22742%29%21%8%13%
17–19 JuneICM/The Guardian1,00538%31%23%8%7%
24–26 MayYouGov/Daily Telegraph38%31%23%8%7%
19–23 MayMORI/Financial Times1,27437%30%26%7%7%
5 May2005 general election (GB figures)[16]36.2%33.2%22.7%7.9%3%

See also

Notes

  1. Hennessy, Patrick; Kite, Melissa (7 October 2007). "Gordon Brown: Why I put off an early election". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 20 January 2021.
  2. Sylvester, Rachel (22 April 2015). "What if... Gordon Brown had called an election in 2007?". Prospect Magazine. Retrieved 20 January 2021.
  3. Wintour, Patrick (8 June 2009). "European elections: Labour suffers long, dark night of humiliation". The Guardian. Retrieved 19 January 2021.
  4. Wyburn-Powell, Alun (11 June 2014). "The rise of multi-party politics heightens the chances of a perverse and unrepresentative outcome in next year's General Election" (PDF). Democratic Audit UK. London School of Economics. Retrieved 15 December 2020.
  5. Predicting Results UK Polling Report
  6. Baston, Lewis (18 April 2010). "Pollwatch: Election 2010 could be the death knell for first past the post". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077.
  7. Barone, Michael (19 April 2010). "The Lib Dems surge in Britain". Washington Examiner.
  8. Election 2010: Lib Dem policies targeted by rivals BBC News, 19 April 2010
  9. Wells, Anthony (10 December 2005). "Tories take the Lead". UKPollingReport. Retrieved 15 March 2010.
  10. Wells, Anthony (29 January 2010). "YouGov show Tory lead cut to 7 points". UK Polling Report.
  11. Editorial (20 April 2010). "General election 2010: All change for new politics". The Guardian.
  12. Election Exit Poll: Tories will be 19 short of majority BBC News, 6 May 2010
  13. "Live coverage – General Election 2010". BBC News. 6 May 2010. Retrieved 6 May 2010.
  14. "Parties surprised by exit poll". BBC News. 6 May 2010. Retrieved 7 May 2010.
  15. BPIX is not a member of the British Polling Council, unlike the other main pollsters such as YouGov, ComRes, Populus, Ipsos MORI, and ICM. Therefore, the full details of its polls are not subject to public disclosure.
  16. Opinion polling is conducted on a Great Britain basis, and election forecasting also uses GB figures. Northern Ireland, being outside the main party system, is treated separately.

PThe dates when the fieldwork for this poll was carried out is unknown, therefore the date of publication has been given.

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