Welsh independence

Glyndwr's banner - red and yellow - still used today as a symbol of Welsh independence

Location of Wales in the United Kingdom

Wales became distinct culturally and politically from other Brythonic groups during the Early Middle Ages.[3][4] Following the Norman conquest of England in 1066, the invading Normans gradually established control over parts of Wales.[4] The death of Prince Llywelyn ap Gruffudd in 1282 led to the conquest of the independent Welsh kingdom by Edward I of England. The Welsh revolted against English, the last being the Glyndŵr Rising of 1400–1415, which briefly restored independence. The banner of Prince Glyndwr, is still used as a symbol of independence.

In the 16th century Henry VIII, passed the Laws in Wales Acts aiming to incorporate Wales fully into the Kingdom of England. The Welsh 'Act of Union’ was passed solely by the parliament of England, a body wholly lacking representatives from Wales.[5] The union offered new opportunities to the Welsh gentry who could now become justices of the peace and members of Parliament at Westminster.

The belief that Wales should form an independent nation state returned in the mid 19th century (the first recorded use of the Welsh word for nationalism, cenedlaetholdeb, is from 1858).[6] [7] By 1886 Cymru Fydd ('The Wales to Come') had been founded, its main leaders being David Lloyd George (later Prime Minister), J. E. Lloyd, O. M. Edwards, T. E. Ellis (leader, MP for Merioneth, 1886–1899), the historian J. E. Lloyd and Beriah Gwynfe Evans. Its main objective was to gain self-government for Wales.[8]

The Sunday Closing (Wales) Act 1881 was the first legislation to acknowledge that Wales had a separate politico-legal character from the rest of the English state. In 1886 Joseph Chamberlain proposed "Home Rule All Round" the United Kingdom, and in the same year the Cymru Fydd (Young Wales) movement was founded to further the cause.[7] Their goal was a devolved assembly rather than a fully independent state, and the movement collapsed in 1896 amid personal rivalries and rifts between Liberal representatives such as David Alfred Thomas.[7][9]

There was little mainstream political interest in Home Rule following the First World War. The focus of independence moved to the newly founded political party, Plaid Cymru, from 1925,[7] although it took until the late 1960s for Plaid to make its first electoral breakthroughs. Many bodies were decentralized, however, including:

• 1920 - The Church in Wales broke off from the Church of England through the Welsh Church Act 1914
• 1907 - the Welsh Education Board
• 1911 - the Welsh Insurance Commission
• 1919 - a Welsh Department of the Ministry of Agriculture

The early part of the century also saw the establishment of several universities and National Libraries and Museums. By 1945 there were 15 Government departments established in Wales.

The declaration of Cardiff as the capital of Wales in 1955,[10][11] Labour's 1959 commitment to appoint a Secretary of State for Wales, the creation of the Welsh Office in 1965,[12] and the repeal of the Wales and Berwick Act 1746 two years later seemed to demonstrate a growing nationalist impetus.[7] However, the heavy defeat for a proposed Welsh Assembly offered by Labour in the 1979 devolution referendum "suggested that the vast majority of the inhabitants of Wales had no desire to see their country having a national future".[7]

On 1 July 1955 a conference of all parties called at Llandrindod by the New Wales Union (Undeb Cymru Fydd) to consider a national petition for the campaign for a Parliament for Wales. The main leader was Megan Lloyd George, the daughter of David Lloyd George, T. I. Ellis, and Sir Ifan ab Owen Edwards. According to the historian Dr William Richard Philip George, "Megan was responsible for removing much prejudice against the idea of a parliament for Wales". She later presented the petition with 250,000 signatures to the British government in April 1956.[13]

In the 1980s, economic restructuring and Thatcherite market reforms brought social dislocation to parts of Wales, which had formerly been described as having "the largest public sector west of the Iron Curtain".[14] A succession of non-Welsh Conservative Secretaries of State after 1987 was portrayed by opponents as 'colonial' and indicative of a 'democratic deficit'.[14] In the early 1990s the Labour Party became committed to devolution to both Scotland and Wales, and in 1997 it was elected with a mandate to hold referendums on a Scottish Parliament and a Welsh Assembly.[14]

The proposed assembly won a narrow majority in the 1997 referendum. The political climate was very different from that of 1979, with a new generation of Welsh MPs in Westminster and a broad consensus on the previously divisive issue of the Welsh language.[14] However, political commentator Denis Balsom notes public sentiment that devolution may have been "unnecessary" following the election of a 'progressive' Labour government.[14] These conflicting sentiments were reflected in the relatively low turnout at the referendum and the narrowness of the victory for devolution campaigners.

Since 1997, there is evidence of increased support for, and trust in, the Senedd Cymru and greater support for it to receive enhanced powers,[15] as evidenced by the 63.49% "Yes" vote in the 2011 referendum.

It had been suggested before the UK's referendum on European Union membership that Wales might vote by a majority for Remain while the UK as a whole voted for Leave, which would increase support for independence. However, while Scotland and Northern Ireland voted for Remain, Wales as a whole voted by a majority for Leave, with majorities for Leave in all but five of its council areas, the Remain majorities being in Cardiff, Monmouthshire, Vale of Glamorgan and the Welsh-speaking heartlands, Gwynedd and Ceredigion.

Following the announcement in 2017 of plans to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence, Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood said there needed to be a national debate on Welsh independence.[16]

In July 2020, Plaid Cymru brought forward a motion to discuss a referendum on Welsh independence, but it was rejected by 43 votes to 9.[17] In December, Plaid leader Adam Price stated that if the party won a majority at the 2021 Senedd election, an independence referendum would be held in its first term in office.[18]

In January 2021, Guto Harri, who was Boris Johnson's communications chief when the latter was mayor of London, wrote in The Sunday Times that "the idea of independence is taking off, with new recruits from very different backgrounds." He went on to say, "Brexiteers will hate me for saying this, but it is clear that some have contributed more to the cause of Welsh independence than my late father. The prospect of being attached to a leftover English rump of the UK, if Scotland and Northern Ireland head off, seems bleak to many people. And having argued against pooling sovereignty with our neighbours to facilitate trade and maximise our influence, Brexiteers should not be surprised if the same logic is applied in a different setting."[19]

Four parties have declared they will stand on an independence platform in the May 2021 elections: Plaid Cymru, the Green Party, Gwlad Gwlad and Propel (the last not yet registered in February 2021).[20]

Support for independence is found in political parties on both the right and left of Welsh politics:

• Cymru Sovereign[38]
• Gwlad[39]
• Plaid Cymru[40]
• Wales Green Party (in the event a referendum is held on Welsh independence. The party does not actively campaign for independence but has stated it would do so if a referendum was called on the matter)[41]
• Green Party of England and Wales (in the event a referendum is held on Welsh independence)
• Propel[42][43]

Yes/No Independence polls

"0-10" Independence polls – (Respondents asked to rate 0–10. 0–4 Against, 5 indifferent, 6–10 In Favour. "Don't Know" removed)

Devolution extent polls

Side by side polls – Independence vs. No devolved government in Wales

The Conservative and Unionist Party, Labour Party and Liberal Democrats oppose Welsh independence.

Support for the Union is found in political parties on both the right and left of Welsh politics:

• Welsh Conservatives
• Welsh Labour
• Welsh Liberal Democrats
• Liberal Party[53]
• UK Independence Party
• Brexit Party
• British National Party
• Co-operative Party[54]
• Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party
• Social Democratic Party[55]
• Socialist Party Wales[56]
• Christian Party[57]

• Koch, John T. (2006). Celtic Culture: A Historical Encyclopedia. ABC-CLIO.