2014 Florida's 13th congressional district special election

A special election for Florida's 13th congressional district was held March 11, 2014, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives, following the death of incumbent Republican Congressman Bill Young on October 18, 2013.[1] Primary elections were held on January 14, 2014.[2] Young, who had already announced that he would not be running for re-election in 2014, was re-elected in 2012 with 57 percent of the vote.[3] With 100% of the precincts reporting, David Jolly was declared the winner of the special election.

2014 Florida's 13th congressional district special election

March 11, 2014

Florida's 13th congressional district
 
Nominee David Jolly Alex Sink
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 89,167 85,673
Percentage 48.5% 46.6%

U.S. Representative before election

Bill Young
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

David Jolly
Republican

Background

On October 9, 2013, Republican Bill Young, who had held this Tampa Bay-area district since 1971, announced that he would not run for re-election to a twenty-second term in 2014. He died 9 days later and this special election was called to fill his seat. Though Young had been re-elected by wide margins, the district in recent years had become competitive. In the four most recent presidential elections, it was won by Al Gore over George W. Bush in 2000 51%-49%, by Bush with 51%-49% in 2004, by Barack Obama over John McCain 51%-47% and again carried by Obama in 2012 by a narrower 50%-49% over Mitt Romney. Given this, some political commentators and journalists viewed this election as a bellwether for the fall 2014 elections.[4][5] While discounting the idea of special elections as bellwethers, political scientists' agreed the result was a data point that public sentiment favored Republicans.[6]

Republican primary

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Mark Bircher
Politicians
David Jolly
Politicians
Others
Organizations
Kathleen Peters
Politicians
Others
  • Bill Young II, son of Bill Young[7]
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Bircher
David
Jolly
Kathleen
Peters
Undecided
St. Pete Polls January 9, 2014 653 ± 3.8% 26.3% 36.5% 23.9% 13.3%
Gravis Marketing January 8, 2014 976 ± 3% 25% 34% 28% 14%
St. Pete Polls December 30, 2013 488 ± 4.4% 17.7% 39.4% 27.7% 15.1%
St. Pete Polls December 18, 2013 660 ± 3.8% 16.1% 34.9% 30.2% 18.9%
St. Pete Polls December 3, 2013 534 ± 4.2% 17.2% 27.8% 27.1% 28.0%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Baker
Neil
Brickfield
Larry
Crow
Frank
Hibbard
David
Jolly
Kathleen
Peters
Karen
Seel
Other Undecided
St. Pete Polls November 18, 2013 582 ± 4.1% 39.2% 17.3% 30.9% 12.6%
St. Pete Polls November 5, 2013 498 ± 4.4% 16.8% 15% 18.7% 28.7% 20.8%
St. Pete Polls October 15, 2013 742 ± 3.6% 51% 7% 4% 2% 10% 27%

Results

Republican primary results[37]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Jolly 20,493 45
Republican Kathleen Peters 14,234 31
Republican Mark Bircher 11,242 24
Total votes 45,810 100

Democratic nomination

Nominee

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Alex Sink
Politicians
  • Joseph Barkley, Belleair Bluffs city council member[42]
  • Nancy Besore, Safety Harbor Commissioner[43]
  • Kathy Castor, U.S. Representative[44]
  • Dwight Dudley, state representative[42]
  • Rene Flowers, Pinellas County School Board member[42]
  • Amy Foster, St. Petersburg City Council member[43]
  • Michael Fridovich, Gulfport City Council member[43]
  • Patricia Gerard, Mayor of Largo[42]
  • Samuel Henderson, Mayor of Gulfport[43]
  • Lorraine Huhn, Vice Mayor of St. Pete Beach[43]
  • Robert Jackson, former Mayor of Largo[42]
  • Charlie Justice, Pinellas County Commissioner[42]
  • Steve Kornell, St. Petersburg City Council member[42]
  • Linda Lerner, Pinellas County School Board member[42]
  • Janet C. Long, Pinellas County Commissioner[42]
  • Jack Nazario, Belleair Bluffs Commissioner[43]
  • Karl Nurse, St. Petersburg City Council member[42]
  • Carlen Petersen, former Clearwater City Council member[43]
  • Patricia Plantamura, Seminole City Council member[42]
  • Jim Quinn, Seminole City Council member[43]
  • Darden Rice, St. Petersburg City Council member[42]
  • Darryl Rouson, state representative[42]
  • Mike Smith, Largo City Council member[42]
  • Ken Welch, Pinellas County Commissioner[42]
  • Carl Zimmermann, state representative[42]
Organisations

General election

Candidates

One voter was confused by a website called "sinkforcongress2014" accepting donations to the National Republican Congressional Committee to defeat Sink and other Democrats, thinking it was a pro-Sink website. His $250 donation was refunded by the NRCC.[47]

Debates

David Jolly, Lucas Overby, and Alex Sink, the three candidates appearing on the ballot for the special election, took part in a televised debate on February 3, 2014. Held at the Seminole Campus of St. Petersburg College and co-hosted by the Tampa Bay Times and Bay News 9, the event aired live on C-SPAN 3. Al Ruechel, Adam Smith, and Amy Hollyfield served as moderators.[48] The debate can be viewed in its entirety here.

A non-scientific poll conducted after the debate by Bay News 9 indicated that overall viewers felt David Jolly had won with 37% of the vote, followed by Alex Sink with 33% and Lucas Overby with 30%.[49]

Campaign spending

During the campaign, the Center for Responsive Politics reported on February 13, 2014, that outside groups had spent $3.5 million on the election, with $2.6 million of that from groups that support Jolly. This makes it the most expensive election of the 2014 cycle so far and one of the most expensive special congressional elections in history.[50]

The Associated Press reports that $11 million total was spent as the Democratic Party poured money into the campaign in its final weeks. In the end, Sink outspent Jolly by 3 to 1 on television ads as well as outspending him overall.[51]

Endorsements

David Jolly
Politicians
Others
Organizations
Lucas Overby
Politicians
Alex Sink
Politicians
  • Joseph Barkley, Belleair Bluffs city council member[42]
  • Nancy Besore, Safety Harbor Commissioner[43]
  • Kathy Castor, U.S. Representative[44]
  • Dwight Dudley, state representative[42]
  • Rene Flowers, Pinellas County School Board member[42]
  • Amy Foster, St. Petersburg City Council member[43]
  • Michael Fridovich, Gulfport City Council member[43]
  • Patricia Gerard, Mayor of Largo[42]
  • Samuel Henderson, Mayor of Gulfport[43]
  • Lorraine Huhn, Vice Mayor of St. Pete Beach[43]
  • Robert Jackson, former Mayor of Largo[42]
  • Charlie Justice, Pinellas County Commissioner[42]
  • Steve Kornell, St. Petersburg City Council member[42]
  • Susan Latvala, Republican Pinellas County Commissioner[59]
  • Linda Lerner, Pinellas County School Board member[42]
  • Janet C. Long, Pinellas County Commissioner[42]
  • Jack Nazario, Belleair Bluffs Commissioner[43]
  • Karl Nurse, St. Petersburg City Council member[42]
  • Carlen Petersen, former Clearwater City Council member[43]
  • Patricia Plantamura, Seminole City Council member[42]
  • Jim Quinn, Seminole City Council member[43]
  • Darden Rice, St. Petersburg City Council member[42]
  • Darryl Rouson, state representative[42]
  • Mike Smith, Largo City Council member[42]
  • Ken Welch, Pinellas County Commissioner[42]
  • Carl Zimmermann, state representative[42]
Organisations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
David
Jolly (R)
Alex
Sink (D)
Lucas
Overby (L)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 7–9, 2014 702 ± 3.7% 45% 48% 6% 2%
RedRacingHorses & PMI inc. February 25–27, 2014 391 ± 6% 46% 44% 5% 5%
St. Pete Polls February 25, 2014 1,269 ± 2.8% 45.6% 45.9% 6.4% 2.1%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates February 17–18, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 44% 42% 14%
St. Pete Polls February 12, 2014 1,130 ± 2.9% 46.2% 44% 6.6% 2.4%
St. Leo University February 9–11, 2014 400 ± 5% 37% 46% 12% 5%
Braun Research February 4–9, 2014 603 ± 4% 35% 42% 4% 14%
DCCC January 24, 2014 527 ± 4.3% 45% 49% 6%
McLaughlin & Associates January 16–19, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 43% 38% 4% 15%
St. Pete Polls January 15, 2014 1,278 ± 2.7% 47% 42.8% 4.4% 5.9%
St. Pete Polls December 3, 2013 1,128 ± 2.9% 36.3% 49% 5.6% 8.8%
St. Pete Polls November 18, 2013 1,252 ± 2.8% 34.9% 49.3% 15.7%
St. Pete Polls November 5, 2013 1,079 ± 3% 31% 51.5% 17.5%

Results

Florida's 13th congressional district, 2014 (special) [61]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican David Jolly 89,167 48.52% -9.05%
Democratic Alex Sink 85,673 46.62% +4.19%
Libertarian Lucas Overby 8,919 4.86% N/A
n/a Michael S. Levinson (write-in) 13 0.00% N/A
Total votes '183,772' '100.0%' N/A
Republican hold

References

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  2. Abby Livingston (October 30, 2013). "Florida House Special-Election Date Scheduled". Roll Call.
  3. "November 6, 2012 General Election Official Results". Florida Department of State. Archived from the original on October 21, 2013. Retrieved October 19, 2013.
  4. Kucinich, Jackie (November 22, 2013). In Fla., late Rep. Young’s purple-trending district will test waters for 2014 midterms. The Washington Post.
  5. The Hill
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    WWSB Archived 2016-03-04 at the Wayback Machine
  6. Larry J. Sabato; Kyle Kondik (March 12, 2014). "The Limited Meaning of Florida's Special House Election". Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.
    Nathan L. Gonzales (March 10, 2014). "Why Florida's 13th District Special Election Is Still a Tossup". The Rothenberg Political Report.
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  7. Curtis Krueger (November 19, 2013). "State Rep. Kathleen Peters enters Pinellas congressional race, creating a GOP contest". Tampa Bay Times.
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