2004 United States presidential election in Florida
The 2004 United States presidential election in Florida took place on November 2, 2004, as part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 27 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
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 County Results
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Florida was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 5.01% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a swing state. Once again Florida was under the national spotlight because of the facts that it had a high number of electoral votes (27) and the memory of the controversy surrounding the 2000 Florida vote still fresh in the minds of voters. The turnout was also much higher, going from an estimated 6 million voters to over 7.5 million voters showing up to vote.[1]
Campaign
Predictions
There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]
- D.C. Political Report: Lean Republican
- Associated Press: Toss-up
- CNN: Bush
- Cook Political Report: Toss-up
- Newsweek: Toss-up
- New York Times: Toss-up
- Rasmussen Reports: Toss-up
- Research 2000: Toss-up
- Washington Post: Battleground
- Washington Times: Battleground
- Zogby International: Tied
- Washington Dispatch: Bush
Polling
Throughout the general election, candidates exchanged narrow leads in the state. The final 3 poll averaged showed Bush leading with 49% to Kerry's 47%.[3]
Advertising and visits
This state was heavily targeted as a swing state. Over the course of the election, Bush visited the state 15 times to Kerry's 18 times. Also, both candidates spent heavily on television advertisements, spending an estimated $3 million each week.[6]
General election
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Kerry (D) |
George W. Bush (R) |
Ralph Nader (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac | October 27–31, 2004 | 1,098 | ± 3.3 | 43% | 51% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| Quinnipiac | October 22–26, 2004 | 944 | ± 3.2 | 46% | 49% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| Quinnipiac | October 15–19, 2004 | 808 | ± 3.5 | 47% | 48% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| Quinnipiac | October 1–5, 2004 | 717 | ± 3.7 | 44% | 51% | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| Quinnipiac | September 18–21, 2004 | 819 | ± 3.4 | 41% | 49% | 5% | 0% | 5% |
| Quinnipiac | August 5–10, 2004 | 1,094 | ± 3.0 | 47% | 41% | 4% | 0% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac | June 23–27, 2004 | 1,209 | ± 2.8 | 43% | 43% | 5% | 1% | 9% |
Analysis
During the 2004 U.S. presidential election, numerous allegations of irregularities were made concerning the voting process in Florida. These allegations included missing and uncounted votes, machine malfunction, and a lack of correlation between the vote count and exit polling.
In the prior election, Ralph Nader obtained over 2% of the vote, thus Bush won with less than 50% of the vote, making his approval rating and his brother's approval ratings the deciding factor of the state. Polls throughout the campaign indicated that Florida was too close to call, prompting concerns about a repeat of the 2000 fiasco. However, the high popularity of George W. Bush's brother, Republican Governor Jeb Bush, contributed to a relatively comfortable victory for Bush, by a margin of 5% over his Democratic rival, John Kerry.
While the South Florida metropolitan area mostly voted for Kerry, the other parts of the state mainly supported Bush, being culturally closer to the rest of the southern United States than to Miami, home to large Hispanic and Jewish populations, as well as retirees and transplants from the largely liberal Northeastern United States.
Key to Bush's victory was increased turnout in Republican areas. Bush's margin of victory in several counties topped 70%, particularly in the Florida Panhandle. Bush also won a significant number of heavily populated and fast-growing areas including the Jacksonville area, the entire Tampa Bay area, Southwest Florida, suburban Orlando, the Space Coast, and Ocala.
As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which Hillsborough County and Osceola County voted for the Republican candidate.
Results
| Elections in Florida |
|---|
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 Government |
| United States presidential election in Florida, 2004 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Republican | George W. Bush (Inc.) | Dick Cheney | 3,964,522 | 52.1% | 27 | |
| Democratic | John Kerry | John Edwards | 3,583,544 | 47.1% | 0 | |
| Reform | Ralph Nader | Peter Camejo | 32,971 | 0.4% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Michael Badnarik | Richard Campagna | 11,996 | 0.2% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Michael Peroutka | Chuck Baldwin | 6,626 | 0.1% | 0 | |
| Green | David Cobb | Patricia LaMarche | 3,917 | 0.1% | 0 | |
| Socialist | Walt Brown | Mary Alice Herbert | 3,502 | 0.1% | 0 | |
| Socialist Workers | Roger Calero | Margaret Trowe | 2,732 | 0.0% | 0 | |
| Totals | 7,609,810 | 100.00% | 27 | |||
| Voter turnout (Voting Age) | 74.0% | |||||
Results breakdown
By county
| John Forbes Kerry
Democratic |
George Walker Bush
Republican |
Various other candidates | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | % | # | % | # | % | # |
| Alachua | 56.1% | 62,504 | 42.9% | 47,762 | 1.0% | 1,062 |
| Baker | 21.9% | 2,180 | 77.7% | 7,738 | 0.4% | 37 |
| Bay | 28.1% | 21,068 | 71.2% | 53,404 | 0.7% | 552 |
| Bradford | 29.9% | 3,244 | 69.6% | 7,557 | 0.5% | 54 |
| Brevard | 41.6% | 110,309 | 57.7% | 153,068 | 0.8% | 2,085 |
| Broward | 64.2% | 453,873 | 34.6% | 244,674 | 1.2% | 8,325 |
| Calhoun | 35.5% | 2,116 | 63.4% | 3,782 | 1.1% | 65 |
| Charlotte | 42.9% | 34,256 | 55.7% | 44,428 | 1.4% | 1,102 |
| Citrus | 42.1% | 29,277 | 56.9% | 39,500 | 1.0% | 690 |
| Clay | 23.3% | 18,971 | 76.2% | 62,078 | 0.5% | 446 |
| Collier | 34.1% | 43,892 | 65.0% | 83,631 | 0.9% | 1,160 |
| Columbia | 32.1% | 8,031 | 67.1% | 16,758 | 0.8% | 202 |
| DeSoto | 41.1% | 3,913 | 58.1% | 5,524 | 0.8% | 73 |
| Dixie | 30.4% | 1,960 | 68.8% | 4,434 | 0.7% | 48 |
| Duval | 41.6% | 158,610 | 57.8% | 220,190 | 0.6% | 2,261 |
| Escambia | 33.7% | 48,329 | 65.3% | 93,566 | 1.0% | 1,383 |
| Flagler | 48.3% | 18,578 | 51.0% | 19,633 | 0.7% | 269 |
| Franklin | 40.5% | 2,401 | 58.5% | 3,472 | 1.0% | 58 |
| Gadsden | 69.7% | 14,629 | 29.8% | 6,253 | 0.5% | 102 |
| Gilchrist | 28.8% | 2,017 | 70.4% | 4,936 | 0.9% | 62 |
| Glades | 41.0% | 1,718 | 58.3% | 2,443 | 0.6% | 27 |
| Gulf | 33.1% | 2,407 | 66.0% | 4,805 | 0.9% | 65 |
| Hamilton | 44.5% | 2,260 | 55.0% | 2,792 | 0.5% | 27 |
| Hardee | 29.6% | 2,149 | 69.7% | 5,049 | 0.7% | 51 |
| Hendry | 40.5% | 3,960 | 58.9% | 5,757 | 0.6% | 58 |
| Hernando | 46.2% | 37,187 | 52.9% | 42,635 | 0.9% | 725 |
| Highlands | 37.0% | 15,347 | 62.4% | 25,878 | 0.7% | 271 |
| Hillsborough | 46.2% | 214,132 | 53.0% | 245,576 | 0.8% | 3,514 |
| Holmes | 21.8% | 1,810 | 77.3% | 6,412 | 0.9% | 78 |
| Indian River | 39.0% | 23,956 | 60.1% | 36,938 | 0.8% | 520 |
| Jackson | 38.1% | 7,555 | 61.2% | 12,122 | 0.7% | 130 |
| Jefferson | 55.3% | 4,135 | 44.1% | 3,298 | 0.6% | 45 |
| Lafayette | 25.4% | 845 | 74.0% | 2,460 | 0.6% | 20 |
| Lake | 38.9% | 48,221 | 60.0% | 74,389 | 1.1% | 1,340 |
| Lee | 39.0% | 93,860 | 59.9% | 144,176 | 1.1% | 2,631 |
| Leon | 61.5% | 83,873 | 37.8% | 51,615 | 0.7% | 891 |
| Levy | 36.5% | 6,074 | 62.5% | 10,410 | 1.0% | 168 |
| Liberty | 35.4% | 1,070 | 63.8% | 1,927 | 0.8% | 24 |
| Madison | 48.8% | 4,050 | 50.5% | 4,191 | 0.8% | 63 |
| Manatee | 42.7% | 61,262 | 56.6% | 81,318 | 0.7% | 1,041 |
| Marion | 41.0% | 57,271 | 58.2% | 81,283 | 0.8% | 1,123 |
| Martin | 41.7% | 30,208 | 57.1% | 41,362 | 1.2% | 883 |
| Miami-Dade | 52.9% | 409,732 | 46.6% | 361,095 | 0.5% | 3,899 |
| Monroe | 49.7% | 19,654 | 49.2% | 19,467 | 1.0% | 414 |
| Nassau | 26.2% | 8,573 | 72.6% | 23,783 | 1.2% | 387 |
| Okaloosa | 21.6% | 19,368 | 77.6% | 69,693 | 0.8% | 695 |
| Okeechobee | 42.3% | 5,153 | 57.2% | 6,978 | 0.5% | 59 |
| Orange | 49.8% | 193,354 | 49.6% | 192,539 | 0.6% | 2,151 |
| Osceola | 47.0% | 38,633 | 52.5% | 43,117 | 0.6% | 454 |
| Palm Beach | 60.4% | 328,687 | 39.1% | 212,688 | 0.6% | 3,247 |
| Pasco | 44.4% | 84,749 | 54.1% | 103,230 | 1.5% | 2,937 |
| Pinellas | 49.5% | 225,460 | 49.6% | 225,686 | 0.9% | 4,211 |
| Polk | 40.8% | 86,009 | 58.6% | 123,559 | 0.6% | 1,262 |
| Putnam | 40.1% | 12,412 | 59.1% | 18,311 | 0.8% | 250 |
| Saint Johns | 30.6% | 26,399 | 68.6% | 59,196 | 0.8% | 695 |
| Saint Lucie | 51.8% | 51,835 | 47.6% | 47,592 | 0.6% | 636 |
| Santa Rosa | 21.8% | 14,659 | 77.3% | 52,059 | 0.9% | 589 |
| Sarasota | 45.2% | 88,442 | 53.5% | 104,692 | 1.3% | 2,518 |
| Seminole | 41.3% | 76,971 | 58.1% | 108,172 | 0.6% | 1,052 |
| Sumter | 36.4% | 11,584 | 62.2% | 19,800 | 1.4% | 458 |
| Suwanee | 28.6% | 4,522 | 70.6% | 11,153 | 0.8% | 127 |
| Taylor | 35.5% | 3,049 | 63.7% | 5,467 | 0.8% | 65 |
| Union | 26.8% | 1,251 | 72.6% | 3,396 | 0.6% | 28 |
| Volusia | 50.5% | 115,519 | 48.9% | 111,924 | 0.7% | 1,496 |
| Wakulla | 41.6% | 4,896 | 57.6% | 6,777 | 0.8% | 90 |
| Walton | 25.9% | 6,213 | 73.2% | 17,555 | 0.9% | 208 |
| Washington | 28.1% | 2,912 | 71.1% | 7,369 | 0.8% | 85 |
By congressional district
Bush won 18 of 25 congressional districts.[7]
| District | Bush | Kerry | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 72% | 28% | Jeff Miller |
| 2nd | 54% | 46% | Allen Boyd |
| 3rd | 35% | 65% | Corrine Brown |
| 4th | 69% | 31% | Ander Crenshaw |
| 5th | 58% | 41% | Ginny Brown-Waite |
| 6th | 61% | 39% | Cliff Stearns |
| 7th | 57% | 43% | John Mica |
| 8th | 55% | 45% | Ric Keller |
| 9th | 57% | 43% | Michael Bilirakis |
| 10th | 51% | 49% | Bill Young |
| 11th | 41% | 58% | Jim Davis |
| 12th | 58% | 42% | Adam Putnam |
| 13th | 56% | 44% | Katherine Harris |
| 14th | 62% | 38% | Porter Goss |
| Connie Mack IV | |||
| 15th | 57% | 43% | Dave Weldon |
| 16th | 54% | 46% | Mark Foley |
| 17th | 17% | 83% | Kendrick Meek |
| 18th | 54% | 46% | Ileana Ros-Lehtinen |
| 19th | 34% | 66% | Robert Wexler |
| 20th | 36% | 64% | Peter Deutsch |
| Debbie Wasserman Schultz | |||
| 21st | 57% | 43% | Lincoln Diaz-Balart |
| 22nd | 48% | 52% | E. Clay Shaw Jr. |
| 23rd | 24% | 76% | Alcee Hastings |
| 24th | 55% | 45% | Tom Feeney |
| 25th | 56% | 44% | Mario Diaz-Balart |
Electors
Technically the voters of Florida cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Florida is allocated 27 electors because it has 25 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 27 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 27 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from Florida. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.[8]
- Al Austin
- Allan Bense
- Sally Bradshaw
- Al Cardenas
- Jennifer Carroll
- Armando Codina
- Sharon Day
- Maria de la Milera
- Jim Dozier
- David Griffin
- Fran Hancock
- Cynthia Handley
- William Harrison
- Al Hoffman
- Bill Jordan
- Tom Lee
- Randall McElheney
- Jeanne McIntosh
- Nancy Mihm
- Gary Morse
- Marilyn Paul
- Tom Petway
- Sergio Pino
- John Thrasher
- Janet Westling
- Robert Woody
- Zach Zachariah
References
- Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org.
- http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=12
- "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
- "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
- "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
- DavidNYC (2008-12-15). "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". Swingstateproject.com. Retrieved 2018-11-14.
- "U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates". www.archives.gov.
