2014 United States Senate election in Georgia

The 2014 United States Senate election in Georgia was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Georgia, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Georgia, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2014 United States Senate election in Georgia

November 4, 2014
 
Nominee David Perdue Michelle Nunn
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,358,088 1,160,811
Percentage 52.9% 45.2%

County results
Perdue:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Nunn:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

U.S. Senator before election

Saxby Chambliss
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

David Perdue
Republican

Incumbent Republican senator Saxby Chambliss announced on January 25, 2013, that he would not run for re-election, making this an open-seat race.[1] After a close and contentious primary campaign, businessman David Perdue and U.S. Representative Jack Kingston advanced to a runoff for the Republican nomination, which was narrowly won by Perdue. The Democratic primary was decisively won by Points of Light CEO Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn. Also running was Libertarian nominee Amanda Swafford, a former Flowery Branch City Councilwoman.

If no candidate received a majority of the vote, a runoff would have been held between the top two finishers on January 6, 2015, after the 114th Congress had been sworn in.[2] A runoff did not occur, as Perdue defeated Nunn by 52.9% to 45.2% in the November 4 balloting.

Republican primary

In the early stages of the Republican primary campaign, the field was deemed a "clown car" by The Hill due to the prominence of far-right candidates within it.[3] During September 2013, several Republicans considered buying ads against Paul Broun's campaign, due to him being seen as unelectable.[4] The primary was held on May 20, 2014. No candidate won more than 50% of the vote, so a runoff was held between the top two candidates, David Perdue and Jack Kingston. The 30.6 percent won by Perdue is the lowest ever for a first-place finisher in a Georgia U.S. Senate primary by either party in state history.[5]

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Paul Broun
Karen Handel
Individuals
Organizations
Jack Kingston
Individuals
Organizations
  • U.S. Chamber of Commerce[51]
David Perdue
Individuals

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Paul
Broun
Casey
Cagle
Art
Gardner
Phil
Gingrey
Tom
Graves
Derrick
Grayson
Karen
Handel
Jack
Kingston
David
Perdue
Tom
Price
Ross
Tolleson
Eugene
Yu
Other/
Unsure
Harper Polling February 11–12, 2013 ? ±? 19% 18% 13% 17% 2% 30%
PPP February 15–18, 2013 366 ±5.1% 11% 13% 12% 3% 15% 15% 10% 20%
14% 22% 21% 18% 24%
15% 24% 18% 14% 28%
Landmark/Rosetta February 15–18, 2013 483 ±4.5% 10% 17% 15% 12% 11% 2% 33%
Landmark/Rosetta March 28, 2013 570 ±4.1% 16% 22% 14% 8% 1% 2% 39%
Insider Advantage April 1, 2013 573 ±4% 15% 15% 9% 14% 5% 37%
20/20 Insight May 7–9, 2013 ? ± ? 13% 19% 16% 18% 34%
GaPundit May 16, 2013 1,351 ±2.66% 14.14% 15.98% 15.81% 17.61% 5.77% 30.69%
Landmark/Rosetta June 2013 450 ±4.6% 15% 17% 14% 7% 44%
PPP August 2–4, 2013 260 ±6.1% 19% 25% 3% 13% 15% 5% 0% 20%
TPC January 31 – February 1, 2014 600 ±3.9% 13% 19% 1% 14% 11% 8% 2% 32%
HEG/AP February 13–16, 2014 923 ±3.25% 10.9% 0.8% 10.4% 0.5% 10.2% 10.9% 12.7% 0.9% 42.7%
PPP March 5–6, 2014 324 ±? 27% 14% 3% 9% 13% 12% 23%
SurveyUSA March 16–18, 2014 508 ±4.2% 11% 1% 12% 4% 10% 19% 29% 15%
Landmark/Rosetta March 23–24, 2014 600 ±4% 15% 13% 10% 15% 21% 26%
InsiderAdvantage March 23–24, 2014 893 ±3.26% 10% 8% 5% 15% 17% 45%
InsiderAdvantage April 13–15, 2014 804 ±3.4% 11% 0.5% 9% 0.5% 13% 15% 19% 32%
SurveyUSA April 24–27, 2014 501 ± 4.5% 13% 1% 6% 5% 15% 20% 26% 13%
InsiderAdvantage April 27–29, 2014 737 ±3.5% 14% 1% 12% 2% 21% 17% 22% 11%
McLaughlin* April 28–29, 2014 400 ±4.9% 8% 13% 14% 20% 17% 28%
NBC News/Marist April 30 – May 5, 2014 533 ±4.2% 11% <1% 11% 1% 14% 18% 23% 23%
Saint Leo May 5–6, 2014 689 ±4% 13% 8% 1% 15% 16% 26% 21%
Landmark/Rosetta^ May 6, 2014 729 ±3.6% 8.6% 8.5% 21% 15.1% 23.1% 20.1%
InsiderAdvantage May 7, 2014 531 ±4.2% 12% 1% 11% 2% 18% 17% 26% 13%
SurveyUSA May 8–12, 2014 634 ±4% 10% 1% 10% 3% 16% 19% 27% 14%
GAPundit May 12–13, 2014 1,006 ±3.1% 11% 2.1% 12.1% 2.4% 20.1% 20.5% 20.1% 11.7%
InsiderAdvantage May 12–14, 2014 1,182 ±2.9% 10% 9% 17% 19% 27% 18%
InsiderAdvantage May 18, 2014 852 ±3.36% 9.8% 0.3% 11.1% 0.7% 17.4% 16.7% 26% 18.1%
  • ^ Internal poll for Karen Handel campaign
  • * Internal poll for Jack Kingston campaign

Results

Republican primary results[57]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Perdue 185,466 30.64%
Republican Jack Kingston 156,157 25.80%
Republican Karen Handel 132,944 21.96%
Republican Phil Gingrey 60,735 10.03%
Republican Paul Broun 58,297 9.63%
Republican Derrick Grayson 6,045 1.00%
Republican Art Gardner 5,711 0.94%
Total votes 605,355 100.00%

Runoff

The runoff was held on July 22, 2014, which Perdue won with 50.9% of the vote.[58][59] Kingston was perceived as the more conservative candidate in the race, but Perdue defeated him, largely due to strong support from business-friendly voters residing in the Atlanta suburbs.[60] The runoff was noted for the large amount of advertisements run by both campaigns that focused around comparing their opponent to a baby.[61]

Endorsements

Jack Kingston
Previously endorsed Handel
Previously abstained
Defeated candidates

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jack
Kingston
David
Perdue
Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 21–22, 2014 410 ± ?% 46% 34% 20%
McLaughlin* May 27–29, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 49% 35% 16%
SurveyUSA June 3–5, 2014 419 ± 4.9% 52% 41% 7%
InsiderAdvantage June 10–11, 2014 401 ± 4.89% 46.1% 35.1% 18.9%
Gravis Marketing June 11–12, 2014 1,140 ± 3% 49% 38% 14%
WPA Opinion Research^ June 22–24, 2014 600 ± 4% 44% 45% 11%
InsiderAdvantage July 7–9, 2014 1,278 ± 2.7% 41.9% 41.1% 17%
InsiderAdvantage July 15–16, 2014 696 ± 3.7% 46% 41% 13%
Landmark Communications July 16, 2014 1,720 ± 2.4% 48% 41% 12%
  • ^ Internal poll for David Perdue's campaign
  • * Internal poll for Jack Kingston's campaign

Results

Republican primary runoff results[73]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Perdue 245,951 50.88%
Republican Jack Kingston 237,448 49.12%
Total votes 483,399 100.00%

Democratic primary

Campaign

With Democratic Congressman John Barrow passing on the race, Nunn consulted with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee about possibly running,[74] as well as with Georgia political figures such as Shirley Franklin, Roy Barnes, and Andrew Young.[75] Though she was little known to voters,[76] Democrats embraced the hope that Nunn, with her executive experience as well as family name, could make their party once again competitive in-state.[74]

On July 22, 2013, Nunn declared herself a candidate for U.S. Senate.[77] She said: "Our opportunity is to define ourselves. I'm going to talk a lot about the deficit. Neither side of the equation is really tackling that. I think people are really tired of the mudslinging and the silliness of this."[77] If elected, Nunn would have become the 29th Georgian elected to the U.S. Senate or U.S. House with a family member who previously served in Congress, and the first since her father (who is the grandnephew of Carl Vinson).[78]

She raised $1.7 million in campaign funds during the third quarter of 2013, more than twice that of any Republican running.[79] She followed that with a $1.6 million fourth quarter[80] and a $2.4 million first quarter of 2014, again the most of anyone in the race.[81]

On May 20, 2014, Nunn won the Democratic primary for the Senate seat with 75 percent of the vote,[82] having skipped many of the debates and public forums where three other little-known candidates appeared.[83]

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Michelle Nunn

Politicians

Business Leaders

Others

Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steen
Miles
Michelle
Nunn
Branko
Radulovacki
Todd
Robinson
Undecided
SurveyUSA May 8–12, 2014 549 ± 4.2% 7% 59% 5% 10% 19%
SurveyUSA April 24–27, 2014 435 ± 4.7% 13% 57% 5% 7% 18%
SurveyUSA March 16–18, 2014 443 ± 4.8% 11% 48% 5% 14% 23%

Results

Democratic primary results[57]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Michelle Nunn 246,369 74.95%
Democratic Steen Miles 39,418 11.99%
Democratic Todd Robinson 31,822 9.68%
Democratic Branko Radulovacki 11,101 3.38%
Total votes 328,710 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Declared

General election

Campaign

Following the conclusion of the two primaries, the race was set up as being between two self-described political "outsiders" with well-known-in-state political family names, each seeking to reach moderate and independent voters.[113][114]

In July 2014, National Review, a conservative media outlet, reported on a leaked Nunn campaign memo from December 2013 which made frank recommendations on strategy for Nunn's path to victory in Georgia.[115][116][117] The leaked memo said that likely attack lines against Nunn would include that she was a "lightweight", "too liberal", and "not a 'real' Georgian".[118] The memo said that Nunn should feature images of her and her family in rural settings in order to connect with rural voters, and suggested that Nunn focus on African American clergy to raise enthusiasm for her candidacy among African American voters and that Nunn focus her efforts on Jews and Asians to raise money.[115]

First Lady Michelle Obama campaigned on behalf of Nunn, as part of an effort to increase African-American voter turnout in midterm elections.[119][120]

Nunn's stump speech emphasized an appeal to bipartisanship.[121] She received support and donations from former Republican senators Richard Lugar and John Warner, both of whom were close to her father,[106] and support from former Georgia Senator and Governor Zell Miller, a Democrat who had endorsed Republicans over the previous decade.[122] Nunn's campaign commercials used photographs of herself and President George H. W. Bush, who founded Points of Light, together in campaign commercials and she mentioned him often on the campaign trail.[123] However, in June 2014, Bush sent out a fundraising letter that, while not mentioning her by name, called on Republican donors to support the Republican nominee,[123] and in September 2014, Bush endorsed Perdue.[124] In October 2014, Bush emphatically objected to Nunn continuing to use a photograph of him in her campaign, saying that such actions were disrespectful.[125] Points of Light chair Neil Bush neither endorsed nor opposed her candidacy,[126] but did label as "shameful" an advertisement approved by Perdue that used a past episode to say that Points of Light "gave money to organizations linked to terrorists."[127]

As the campaign moved on, Nunn made her father a focal point, staging joint appearances with him at military bases and saying that she would emulate his bipartisan approach to legislating.[128] She has also said that she would seek a seat on the Senate Armed Services Committee that he once chaired.[128]

Perdue stated that he entered politics out of concern for the rising national debt. He supported repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act.[129] He also supported a constitutional balanced budget amendment and comprehensive tax reform.[130] In addition, he pledged to limit himself to two terms in the Senate, if elected.[131]

Perdue[he] represent[s] and touted his business experience, and particularly his experience at Dollar General, saying, "We added about 2,200 stores, created almost 20,000 jobs and doubled the value of that company in a very short period of time. Not because of me, but because we listened to our customers and employees." He received the endorsement of the National Federation of Independent Business.[132] But he was hurt during the campaign by revelations that he had in the past been an enthusiastic supporter of outsourcing.[133] Nunn targeted past pre-political statements of Perdue where he had said he was "proud of" his outsourcing efforts, and for the job losses that followed the final closure of Pillowtex.[132][134]

Policy positions

Perdue supported repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act.[129] He supported a constitutional balanced budget amendment and comprehensive tax reform.[130] He pledged to limit himself to two terms in the Senate, if elected.[131]

Nunn supported abortion rights.[135] Nunn believed that members of Congress should be forced to pass a budget each year, or forfeit their pay.[136] Nunn supported expanding federally mandated background checks to include all local sales to prevent the possibility that mentally ill persons would be able to buy a firearm.[137] Nunn said that going forward, some aspects of the Affordable Care Act should be fixed rather than the whole law being eliminated.[77][138] She criticized Georgia's refusal to accept Medicaid expansion under the act.[77] Following the start-up problems with the associated HealthCare.gov website, Nunn broke with the Obama administration and said that the individual mandate portion of the law should be delayed.[139] Nunn supported the 2013 Senate immigration plan that would have allowed illegal immigrants to stay in the United States while waiting for American citizenship.[137] Nunn favored construction of the Keystone XL Pipeline.[136] She opposed the Obama administration's proposed cuts to defense spending.[128] On the topic of same-sex marriage, Nunn said she personally favored it, but that the decision should be made on a state-by-state basis.[77]

Debates

Perdue and Nunn held debates on August 21,[140] October 7, October 26,[141] and November 2.[142]

Fundraising

David Perdue has funded more than $1.9 million of his campaign personally; the second-largest total of any Senate candidate.[143] A total of $23,355,844 was raised by the candidates for this race, of which a total of $22,917,058 was spent by the campaigns.

Candidate Contributions Expenditures Cash on hand Debt
Michelle Nunn (D) $13,035,397 $13,064,094 $1,105,870 $2,768
David Perdue (R) $10,719,297 $11,069,317 $669,343 $150,000

Spending

This Senate race, as many others across the United States, was heavily influenced by outside PACs and organizations who support various candidates.[144] The U.S. Chamber of Commerce was expected to spend almost $50 million on elections in 2014.[144] More than $4.6 million has been spent on advertising in the Georgia race by outside groups so far.[144]

Organization/Candidate Supporting Amount Media Goal
United States Chamber of Commerce Jack Kingston (R) $920,000[144] TV and online ads Support Jack Kingston (R)
Citizens for a Working America PAC David Perdue (R) $1,000,000[144] TV Attack Jack Kingston (R)
Citizens for a Working America PAC David Perdue (R) $515,000[144] TV Support David Perdue (R)
Ending Spending Action Fund N/A $1,750,000[144] TV Attack Phil Gingrey
Ending Spending Action Fund N/A $334,000[144] TV Attack Michelle Nunn
Nunn for Senate, Inc. Michelle Nunn $55,000[145] TV Support Michelle Nunn

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[146] Tossup November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[147] Lean R November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[148] Tossup November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[149] Tossup November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
David
Perdue (R)
Michelle
Nunn (D)
Amanda
Swafford (L)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 2–4, 2013 520 ± 4.3% 40% 40% 21%
Landmark/Rosetta Stone March 31, 2014 600 ± 4% 37.5% 33% 29.5%
NBC News/Marist April 30 – May 5, 2014 1,066 ± 3% 45% 41% 1% 13%
Saint Leo May 5–6, 2014 1,000 ± 3% 41% 37% 6% 15%
Atlanta Journal-Constitution May 5–8, 2014 1,012 ± 4% 45% 46% 8%
Landmark/Rosetta Stone May 2014 1,000 ± 3% 44% 45% 11%
Public Policy Polling May 21–22, 2014 803 ± ?% 46% 48% 7%
Rasmussen Reports May 21–22, 2014 750 ± 4% 42% 45% 7% 6%
SurveyUSA June 3–5, 2014 999 ± 3.2% 43% 38% 6% 14%
Landmark Communications July 16, 2014 750 ± 4% 42% 48% 10%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 2,541 ± 3.4% 47% 42% 3% 8%
Rasmussen Reports July 23–24, 2014 750 ± 4% 46% 40% 4% 10%
Landmark Communications July 25, 2014 750 ± 3.8% 43% 46.6% 3.8% 6.6%
Vox Populi Polling July 27–28, 2014 624 ± 3.9% 49% 40% 1% 10%
Hicks Evaluation Group August 8–10, 2014 788 ± 3.48% 47.6% 41.5% 10.9%
InsiderAdvantage August 12–13, 2014 719 ± 3.7% 47% 40% 8% 5%
SurveyUSA August 14–17, 2014 560 ± 4.2% 50% 41% 3% 6%
Landmark Communications August 20–21, 2014 600 ± 4% 40% 47% 3% 10%
GaPundit.com August 24–25, 2014 1,578 ± 2.47% 43.09% 44.74% 7.41% 4.75%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 1,900 ± 3% 47% 41% 3% 1% 9%
SurveyUSA September 5–8, 2014 558 ± 4.2% 47% 44% 5% 4%
Atlanta Journal-Constitution September 8–11, 2014 884 ± 4% 45% 41% 6% 8%
Landmark Communications September 9–11, 2014 1,109 ± 2.9% 43.4% 46% 6.4% 4.2%
Insider Advantage September 10–11, 2014 1,167 ± 2.9% 50.1% 39.8% 5% 5.1%
Rasmussen Reports September 15–16, 2014 750 ± 4% 46% 41% 4% 9%
SurveyUSA September 19–22, 2014 550 ± 4.3% 46% 45% 4% 6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 1,851 ± 3% 47% 43% 2% 0% 9%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner September 25 – October 1, 2014 1,000 ± 2.09% 46% 41% 14%
Insider Advantage September 29 – October 1, 2014 947 ± 3.2% 47% 42.6% 3.6% 6.8%
Rasmussen Reports September 30 – October 1, 2014 1,000 ± 3% 46% 42% 4% 9%
Hickman Analytics September 26 – October 5, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 41% 39% 6% 14%
Public Policy Polling October 2–5, 2014 895 ± 3.3% 45% 43% 5% 8%
48% 45% 6%
SurveyUSA October 2–6, 2014 566 ± 4.2% 46% 45% 3% 6%
Landmark Communications October 7–9, 2014 1,000 ± 3.1% 46% 46% 4% 4%
SurveyUSA October 10–13, 2014 563 ± 4.2% 45% 48% 3% 4%
GaPundit.com October 13–14, 2014 1,543 ± 2.49% 44.72% 45.69% 6.03% 3.56%
SurveyUSA October 17–20, 2014 606 ± 4.1% 44% 46% 4% 7%
Landmark Communications October 20–21, 2014 1,000 ± 2.75% 47.3% 47.4% 3.3% 2%
CNN/ORC International October 19–22, 2014 565 ± 4% 44% 47% 5% 4%
Insider Advantage October 21–22, 2014 704 ± 3.7% 44.9% 47.3% 4.1% 3.7%
Atlanta Journal-Constitution October 16–23, 2014 1,170 ± 3.6% 44% 42% 6% 8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 1,774 ± 4% 47% 44% 1% 0% 8%
Public Policy Polling October 23–24, 2014 771 ± ?% 47% 47% 3% 4%
SurveyUSA October 24–27, 2014 611 ± 4% 48% 45% 3% 5%
Rasmussen Reports October 25–27, 2014 977 ± 3% 46% 46% 3% 5%
Monmouth October 26–28, 2014 436 ± 4.7% 49% 41% 3% 7%
Vox Populi Polling October 28, 2014 602 ± 4% 48% 43% 3% 6%
Landmark Communications October 29, 2014 1,500 ± 2.5% 47.4% 46.6% 2.7% 3.3%
NBC News/Marist October 26–30, 2014 603 LV ± 4% 48% 44% 3% 1% 4%
875 RV ± 3.3% 45% 43% 4% 1% 7%
YouGov October 25–31, 2014 1,743 ± 3.2% 44% 42% 1% 1% 12%
Public Policy Polling October 30–31, 2014 533 ± ? 46% 46% 4% 4%
Perkins October 28 – November 2, 2014 ? ? 48% 40% 3% 9%
SurveyUSA October 30 – November 2, 2014 591 ± 4.1% 47% 44% 5% 4%
Insider Advantage November 2, 2014 1,463 ± 3% 48% 45% 3% 4%
Landmark Communications November 2, 2014 1,500 ± 2.5% 49.8% 45.6% 2.4% 2.2%
Public Policy Polling November 1–3, 2014 975 ± 3.1% 46% 45% 5% 5%
48% 48% 5%

Results

United States Senate election in Georgia, 2014[150]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican David Perdue 1,358,088 52.89% +3.13%
Democratic Michelle Nunn 1,160,811 45.21% -1.62%
Libertarian Amanda Swafford 48,862 1.90% -1.51%
Total votes 2,567,761 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Results breakdown

Perdue's victory was part of a series of Republican victories across the nation.[151] Nunn failed to improve on Obama's losing percentages in the state from two years earlier and any changes in the state's demographics were not enough for Democrats to prevail.[133] Nevertheless, Nunn took credit for making the party competitive in the otherwise inhospitable South: "We put Georgia in play. We have reminded people what a two-party system looks like."[133] Nunn's efforts to appeal to white voters was largely unsuccessful, with her not achieving 25% of the white, vote, with conventional wisdom at the time stated that a Democrat needed 30% of the white vote to win.[152]

See also

Notes

  1. Amanda Swafford (L)

References

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