List of recessions in the United Kingdom

This is a list of (recent) recessions (and depressions) that have affected the economy of the United Kingdom and its predecessor states. In the United Kingdom and all other EU member states, a recession is generally defined as two successive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures for real GDP.[1][2]

Name Dates Duration Real GDP reduction Causes Other data
Great Slumpc. 1430–c. 1490~60 years
War of the Spanish Succession 1706 -15%[3] Spanish war of succession compounded by failure of harvest
The Great Frost 1709 3 months[4] -14%[3] Failure of harvest caused by the Great Frost
Crisis of 1772 1772 Great Bengal famine of 1770
Post-Napoleonic depression1812–21~9 years[5]Post-Napoleonic Wars readjustment
1857–8 recession1857–8~1 year[6][7]~1%[8]Panic of 1857 (originating in America) as the first global economic crisis, confidence eroded by Palmerston government relaxing the provisions of the Peel Banking Act of 1844Comparatively brief contraction of approximately 3.5%[6] nominal GDP?
1867-9 recession1867–9~2 years[6][7]~1%[9]Impact on exports resulting from American recession post-American Civil War1.9%[6] fall in GDP
Long Depression1873–96Periodic falls in real GDP over ~20 yearsDeflation but a large rise real GDPPanic of 1873Previously known as the "Great Depression". Real GDP rose over this period. Agricultural deflation hit farmers and their workers, although industrial output continued to grow.
1919–26 depression1919–21~3 years10.9% 1919
6.0% 1920
8.1% 1921[10]
~9.5%[11]		The end of World War IDeflation ~10% in 1921, and ~14% in 1922.[12]
Great Depression1930–1~2 years0.7% 1930
5.1% 1931[10]		US Depression. Reducing demand for UK exports, also high interest rate defending the gold standard.UK came off gold standard Sept 1931. 3-5% deflation pa. UK much less affected than US. Took 16 quarters for GDP to recover to that at start of recession[13] after a 'double dip'.
1956 recession19561956 Q2
1956 Q3		0.5 years
(2 Qtrs)[14]		1956 Q2: -0.2%
1956 Q3: -0.1%		Uncompetitive motor industry,[15] inflationary pressures, credit squeeze caused by high bank rate, effects of the Suez crisis - oil embargo by NATO and other Arab countries. [16]Average inflation in 1956 totalled 4.9%.
Interest rate held at 5.5%, an increase of 1.0% on the previous year.[17]
1961 recession19611961 Q3
1961 Q4		0.5 years
(2 Qtrs)[14]		1961 Q3: -0.5%
1961 Q4: -0.2%		Time lag from the 'Rolling Adjustment' recession in America[18] and high bank rate.Interest rates were hiked from 5.0% to 7.0% in July 1961, reducing to 6.5% in October 1961 and then to 6.0% from November 1961 onwards.[17]
Mid-1970s recessions1973-41973 Q3
1973 Q4
1974 Q1		0.75 years
(3 Qtrs)[14]		1973 Q3: -1.0%
1973 Q4: -0.4%
1974 Q1: -2.7%		1973 oil crisis, stagflation, the decline of traditional British industries, inefficient production, high inflation caused industrial disputes over pay.The economy surpassed its pre-recession peak by 1976 Q4, fourteen quarters after its beginning.[12][13]
There were two single-quarterly setbacks during the recovery (aside from the double-dip) in 1974 Q4 and 1976 Q2.
Average inflation was 9.2% in 1973, 16.0% in 1974, 24.2% in 1975 and 16.5% in 1976.
Interest rates fluctuated wildly during the recession with a low of 9.0% in March 1976 and a high of 15.0% in October 1976.
19751975 Q2
1975 Q3		0.5 years
(2 Qtrs)[14]		1975 Q2: -1.7%
1975 Q3: -0.3%
Early 1980s recession1980–11980 Q1
1980 Q2
1980 Q3
1980 Q4
1981 Q1		1.25 years
(5 Qtr)[14]		1980 Q1: -1.7%
1980 Q2: -2.0%
1980 Q3: -0.2%
1980 Q4: -1.0%
1981 Q1: -0.3%		Deflationary government policies including spending cuts, pursuance of monetarism to reduce inflation, switch from a manufacturing economy to a services economy.Company earnings decline 35%.
Unemployment rises from 5.3% of the working population in August 1979 to 11.9% in 1984[19]
Took thirteen quarters for GDP to recover to its pre-recession peak at the end of 1979.[12]
Annual inflation was 18.0% in 1980, 11.9% in 1981, 8.6% in 1982 and 4.6% in 1983.
Interest rates generally declined during the recession from a peak of 17.0% at the beginning of 1980 to a low of 9.6% in October 1982.[17]
Early 1990s recession1990–11990 Q3
1990 Q4
1991 Q1
1991 Q2
1991 Q3		1.25 years
(5 Qtrs)[14]		1990 Q3: -1.1%
1990 Q4: -0.4%
1991 Q1: -0.3%
1991 Q2: -0.2%
1991 Q3: -0.3%		US savings and loan crisis, high bank rate in response to rising inflation caused by the Lawson Boom and to maintain British membership of the Exchange Rate Mechanism.Company earnings decline 25%.
Peak budget deficit ~8% of GDP.
Unemployment rises from 6.9% of the working population in 1990 to 10.7% in 1993[19]
Took eleven quarters for GDP to recover to its pre-recession peak in the Spring of 1990.[12]
Annual inflation was 9.5% in 1990, 5.9% in 1991, 3.7% in 1992. and 1.6% in 1993.
Interest rates were stubbornly high initially but declined from a high of 14.8% at the start of the recession to a low of 5.9% by the end of the recession,[17] though interest rates were hiked twice during Black Wednesday.
Great Recession2008–20092008 Q2
2008 Q3
2008 Q4
2009 Q1
2009 Q2		1.25 years
(5 Qtrs)		2008 Q2: -0.2%
2008 Q3: -1.7%
2008 Q4: -2.2%
2009 Q1: -1.8%
2009 Q2: -0.3%
Late 2000s financial crisis, rising global commodity prices, subprime mortgage crisis infiltrating the British banking sector, significant credit crunch.The recession lasted for five quarters and was the deepest UK recession since the Second World War.[14]
Manufacturing output declined 7% by end 2008.
It affected many sectors including banks and investment firms, with many well known and established businesses having to fold.[20]
The unemployment rate rose to 8.3% (2.68m people) in August 2011, the highest level since 1994.
There was much speculation of a 'double dip' recession during the 2010s, but this proved not to be the case. However, the 2010s saw four separate periods of Quarter on Quarter fall in growth: 2010 Q4 (-0.4); 2011 Q4 (-0.1); 2012 Q2 (-0.5); and 2012 Q4 (-0.2).[21]
COVID-19 recession2020–presentOngoing2020 Q1: -2.2%[22]
2020 Q2: -14.5%[23]		 COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, exacerbated by 2020 Russia–Saudi Arabia oil price war and international travel bans. Associated with the corporate debt bubble and coronavirus liquidity crisis. Since 2017, a major global slowdown in growth has been taking place in many countries of the world, and several European governments have had economic crises. These measures began to be exacerbated in September 2019, when the US Federal Reserve had to provide funds in the repo market in an attempt to keep the economy afloat after the overnight lending rate spiked due to a liquidity issue; Thomas Cook Group would be liquidated at that time as well. The Fed's efforts began to fail in November 2019, when a novel coronavirus emerged in Wuhan, China. The delayed responses of many governments around the world resulted in the virus spreading to every region of the world, with the virus outbreak being declared a pandemic in March 2020. Infection control measures have resulted in the closure of all nonessential businesses and a global restriction of public gatherings, resulting in major declines in the hospitality, retail and tourism industries. These measures, combined with the accumulation of too much corporate debt in the previous decade, resulted in a major stock market crash which caused the collapse of the corporate debt bubble. A few other countries, such as Sweden, fared better economically in the short term (-0.3% GDP in Q1 2020) than the UK (-2% GDP in Q1 2020) and Eurozone (-3.8% in Q1 2020) due to their government refusing to enter lockdown which in turn, led to most countries placing Sweden in quarantine.,[24] As a result, Sweden has one of the highest deaths per million head of population. (Sweden has the 14th highest death rate per capita, much less than the UK which had a full national lockdown) Sweden also has double the UK's unemployment level. [25]

See also

References
  1. "Q&A: What is a recession?". BBC News. 8 July 2008.
  2. "Glossary of Treasury terms". HM Treasury. Archived from the original on 2 November 2012. Retrieved 25 October 2012.
  3. Inman, Phillip (7 May 2020). "War and the weather: what caused the huge economic slump of 1706?". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2 July 2020.
  4. "What happened in 1709? Why the UK economy slumped into a recession". inews.co.uk. Retrieved 15 May 2020.
  5. "Public Spending Chart for United Kingdom 1800-1830 - Central Government Local Authorities". ukpublicspending.co.uk. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
  6. "Public Spending Chart for United Kingdom 1800-1900 - Central Government Local Authorities". ukpublicspending.co.uk. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
  7. Cain, P.J.; Hopkins, A.G. (2002). British Imperialism, 1688-2000. Longman. ISBN 9780582472860. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
  8. "Public Spending Chart for United Kingdom 1856-1859 - Central Government Local Authorities". ukpublicspending.co.uk. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
  9. "Public Spending Chart for United Kingdom 1865-1868 - Central Government Local Authorities". ukpublicspending.co.uk. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
  10. D Smith, Sunday Times (UK) 9 November 2008
  11. "NIESR graph of 6 UK recessions" (PDF).
  12. "Bank of England February 2009 Quarterly inflation report" (PDF). bankofengland.co.uk. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
  13. "BBC News - Economy tracker: GDP". BBC News. 27 January 2015. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
  14. "Quarterly National Accounts - National accounts aggregates (ABMI Gross Domestic Product: chained volume measures: Seasonally adjusted £m, constant prices)". Office for National Statistics. 20 December 2013.
  15. "ECONOMIC POLICY AND THE MOTOR RECESSION » 12 Jul 1956 » The Spectator Archive". archive.spectator.co.uk. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
  16. Love 1969, p. 651
  17. "Interest rate changes since 1694 - Google Sheets". Retrieved 9 August 2016.
  18. "A Review Of Past Recessions | Investopedia". investopedia.com. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
  19. "UK unemployment" FT 20 November 2008
  20. "CBI February 2009 Economic forecast" (PDF). cbi.org.uk. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
  21. "UK GDP since 1955 | Business Rogers". theguardian.com. 9 March 2009. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
  22. "GDP monthly estimate, UK - Office for National Statistics". www.ons.gov.uk. Retrieved 13 May 2020.
  23. "GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2020 - Office for National Statistics". www.ons.gov.uk. Retrieved 2 November 2020.
  24. " UK lifts quarantine for arrivals from several countries – but not Sweden ". The Local SE. 3 July 2020. Retrieved 23 September 2020.
  25. "Economic data, commodities and markets". The Economist. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 18 May 2020.
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