United States presidential straw polls in Guam

Following is a table of United States presidential straw polls in Guam. Because it is a U.S. territory instead of a U.S. state, voters in Guam are ineligible to elect members of the Electoral College, who would then in turn cast direct electoral votes for president and for vice president. The territory nonetheless conducts a non-binding straw poll on the day of the presidential general election to gauge the preference for president every election year.[1]

Presidential elections in Guam
No. of elections10
Voted Democratic6
Voted Republican4
Voted for winning candidate8
Voted for losing candidate2

The poll has been held in Guam during every presidential election since 1980.[1] It was established after the Legislature of Guam passed Public Law 15-49, which requires the Guam Election Commission to conduct the poll. The law also instructs the Chairman of the Board of the Guam Election Commission to essentially conduct a meeting of electors like those in the states and act as the territory's sole elector, including formally casting an electoral college ballot for the presidential ticket receiving the highest number of votes in the territory, and then officially sending the result to the U.S. Congress.[2]

Because Guam is 15 hours ahead of the contiguous United States, the poll is regarded as an indicator of how the rest of the country will vote.[3] The territory is home to three U.S. military bases and current and former service members, and has historically had a higher voter turnout than the mainland.[4] Since 1980, the results of the Guam poll have aligned with the results of the mainland, except in two instances: in 1980, when the islanders favored Jimmy Carter, and in 2016, when they favored Hillary Clinton. Both candidates, of course, lost their respective presidential bids -- although the result from 2016 accurately reflected the popular vote (as Clinton lost the election but won among individual voters).[1][3]

Results

Winners of the territory are in bold.

Year Winner (nationally) Votes Percent Loser (nationally) Votes Percent Other national
candidates[lower-alpha 1]		 Votes Percent
2020[5]Joe Biden14,44555.36Donald Trump10,93841.92
2016[3]Donald Trump[lower-alpha 2]7,77924.17Hillary Clinton23,05271.62
2012[1][2]Barack Obama22,68872.51Mitt Romney8,25226.37
2008[2][3]Barack Obama20,11962.3John McCain11,94137
2004[2][3]George W. Bush21,49064.1John Kerry11,78135.1
2000[2][6]George W. Bush[lower-alpha 2]18,075N/AAl Gore16,549N/A
1996[2][7]Bill Clinton19,265N/ABob Dole12,524N/A
1992[2]Bill ClintonN/AN/AGeorge H. W. BushN/AN/A
1988[2]George H. W. BushN/AN/AMichael DukakisN/AN/A
1984[2]Ronald ReaganN/AN/AWalter MondaleN/AN/A
1980[8]Ronald Reagan9,65837.3Jimmy Carter 14,35255.4John B. Anderson9543.7

Notes
  1. For purposes of these lists, other national candidates are defined as those who won at least one electoral vote, or won at least ten percent of the vote in multiple states.
  2. Won the electoral college while losing the popular vote

References
  1. "Guam's Straw Poll Picks Obama, Overwhelmingly". National Public Radio. November 6, 2012.
  2. "2012 Election Comparative Analysis Report". Guam Election Commission. July 5, 2013. p. 39. Retrieved May 27, 2020.
  3. "Guam, which has historically predicted election winner, picks Clinton". USA Today. November 8, 2016.
  4. "Guam's voters tend to predict the presidency — but they have no say in the Electoral College". PRI.org. November 8, 2016.
  5. "Summary Results Report" (PDF). November 4, 2020.
  6. Limtiaco, Steve (2 November 2004). "Guam Goes to Polls in Local Elections". Pacific Daily News. Retrieved 22 October 2020.
  7. Arroyo, Rafael H. (7 November 1996). "Guam Republicans Poised to Control New Legislature" (PDF). Marianas Variety. 25 (171). p. 6. Retrieved 22 October 2020.
  8. "Election Comparative Analysis Report". Guam Election Commission.
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