2024 United States presidential election

The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] It will be the first presidential election to be run with population data from the 2020 census.

2024 United States presidential election

November 5, 2024

538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win

The number of electoral votes each state gets for the 2024 presidential election will be determined by the results of the 2020 Census.

Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic


In the United States, general elections follow caucuses and primary elections held by the major parties to determine their nominees. The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on Monday, January 20, 2025.

Background

Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, which is awarded through a process such as a primary election. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, which is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.

The general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[2] If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, a contingent election will be held in which the House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes, and the Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals. The presidential election will occur simultaneously with House of Representatives elections, Senate elections, and various state and local-level elections.

Effects of the 2020 Census

The election has been the early subject of attention by analysts and commentators, as it will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College, which will follow the 2020 United States census.[3][4] This realignment of electoral college votes will remain consistent through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States Census.[5]

The House of Representatives will have redistributed the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting cycle in 2021 and 2022, where Congressional and state legislative districts will be redrawn. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have bipartisan or nonpartisan redistricting commissions). The party that wins a presidential election often experiences a coattail effect, which helps other candidates of that party win elections.[6] In 2020, although Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, won the presidential election, the Democratic Party did not flip any state legislature chambers and in fact lost both New Hampshire legislative chambers and the Montana governorship. This will allow the Republican Party to have redistricting control of many seats in New Hampshire and Montana,[7][8] potentially leading to gerrymandering that will stay in effect until the 2030 census, similar to the REDMAP project after the 2010 Census.[9][10][8]

Issues unique to the 2024 election

COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic, which, as of February 2021, has killed over 470,000 people in the United States (more than 1 in 750 Americans),[11] has had significant economic and societal effects which could pass on to the 2024 presidential election. The high visibility of governors in fighting the pandemic has been viewed as having given them a boost in possible 2024 contention, in contrast to the significant advantage senators have had in recent cycles.[12][13]

2020 election nominees

During his 2020 campaign, Biden was widely viewed as a "transition candidate" by the mainstream media, due to his political positions and age.[14][15] This led to significant media speculation about whether Biden will run in 2024.[16] The last time that an incumbent president did not run for re-election was in 1968, when Lyndon B. Johnson decided not to stand for his party's nomination following the New Hampshire primary.[17]

If former president Donald Trump decides to run in 2024, he would seek to become the second president after Grover Cleveland to serve non-consecutive terms. The last one-term president to campaign for a second non-consecutive term was Herbert Hoover, who after serving from 1929 to 1933 made runs in 1936 and 1940.[18] Trump may become ineligible if he is convicted and disqualified in his second impeachment trial, following the 2021 storming of the U.S. Capitol, or if he is disqualified under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment for inciting an insurrection.

Candidates

Democratic Party

While Democrat Joe Biden is the incumbent president following the 2020 election and is eligible to run for reelection, he would be 82 years old at the conclusion of his first term. This would make him the oldest person elected to the office, breaking the record of 78 years he set himself in 2020 (he would be 86 at the end of his second term). This has led to speculation that Biden will not seek a second term, which could cause a more competitive primary than would likely occur if Biden pursues his party's nomination as the incumbent president.[19] He had described himself as a "transitional" candidate at multiple points on the 2020 campaign trail, raising suggestions in the media that Vice President Kamala Harris would be the party front-runner in 2024.[20] However, he has expressed some interest in running anyway,[21] and in January 2021, Biden's close ally, fellow Delaware Senator Chris Coons indicated that Biden is planning to run for a second term in 2024.[22]

Publicly expressed interest

As of January 2021, the following people have publicly expressed interest about potentially pursuing candidacy within the previous six months.

Other potential candidates

As of January 2021, the following people have been subjects of significant speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months.

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Republican Party

Donald Trump was defeated by Joe Biden in 2020 and was impeached by the House of Representatives. He currently awaits trial in the Senate. Trump will be eligible to run again in the 2024 presidential election if he is acquitted in his second impeachment in 2021, if he is not disqualified from holding public office in the subsequent Senate vote, or he is not disqualified under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment if he is acquitted (he was charged by the House with incitement of insurrection, which he could be disqualified for under the amendment). If the Senate does not disqualify Trump, or he is not disqualified by Congress under the 14th Amendment, he would be seeking to become the second president after Grover Cleveland to serve non-consecutive terms.[43][44]

Publicly expressed interest

As of January 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Other potential candidates

As of January 2021, the following people have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months.

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Potential candidates

Filed paperwork

Potential candidates

Publicly expressed interest

Primary election polling

Nationwide polling

Graph of opinion polls conducted
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Stacey
Abrams
Joe
Biden
Cory
Booker
Pete
Buttigieg
Andrew
Cuomo
Kamala
Harris
Amy
Klobuchar
Michelle
Obama
Beto
O'Rourke
Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez
Andrew
Yang
Other Undecided
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax Dec 9–13, 2020 445 (LV) 3% 5% 5% 25% 2% 29% 7% 8%[lower-alpha 2] 18%
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax Nov 21–23, 2020 445 (LV) ± 3.1% 2% 6% 5% 29% 2% 23% 6% 5%[lower-alpha 3] 23%
Seven Letter Insight Nov 10–19, 2020 ~555 (V)[lower-alpha 4] ± 2.5% 74% 28%[lower-alpha 5]
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
McLaughlin & Associates Nov 2–3, 2020 461 (LV) 2% 8% 8% 18% 25% 6% 6%[lower-alpha 6] 28%
Léger Aug 4–7, 2020 390 (LV) ± 2.8% 6% 6% 16% 21% 19% 6% 6% 9% 8% 3%[lower-alpha 7]

Nationwide polling

Graph of opinion polls conducted
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Tucker
Carlson
Ted
Cruz
Ron
DeSantis
Nikki
Haley
Larry
Hogan
Mike
Pence
Mitt
Romney
Marco
Rubio
Donald
Trump
Donald
Trump Jr.
Other Undecided
Echelon Insights Jan 20–26, 2021 – (RV)[lower-alpha 8] [lower-alpha 9] 45% 37% 19%
2%[lower-alpha 10] 8% 2% 9% 0% 21% 3% 2% 10% 11%[lower-alpha 11] 30%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
Léger Jan 15–17, 2021 1,007 (A)[lower-alpha 12] ± 3.09% [lower-alpha 9] 6% 2% 7% 6% 13% 19% 3% 29% 2% 12%[lower-alpha 13]
[lower-alpha 10] 9% 3% 8% 7% 22% 20% 4% 11% 16%[lower-alpha 14]
Ipsos/Axios Jan 11–13, 2021 334 (A) ± 5.8% 57% 41% 1%[lower-alpha 15]
Morning Consult/Politico Jan 8–11, 2021 595 (RV) ± 4% 6% 5% 0% 16% 6% 2% 42% 6% 14%[lower-alpha 16]
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax Dec 9–13, 2020 442 (LV) 3% 5% 1% 3% 11% 4% 1% 56% 7%[lower-alpha 17] 10%
Fox News Dec 6–9, 2020 ~ 413 (RV) ± 4.5% 71% 21%[lower-alpha 18] 8%
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax Nov 21–23, 2020 442 (LV) ± 3.1% 1%[lower-alpha 9] 4% 2% 4% 9% 4% 2% 53% 8%[lower-alpha 19] 15%
1%[lower-alpha 10] 7% 2% 6% 20% 5% 3% 20% 14%[lower-alpha 20] 22%
Morning Consult/Politico Nov 21–23, 2020 765 (RV) ± 2% 4% 4% 0% 12% 4% 2% 53% 8% 14%[lower-alpha 21]
HarrisX/The Hill Nov 17–19, 2020 599 (RV) ± 2.26% 75% 25%
Seven Letter Insight Nov 10–19, 2020 ~555 (V)[lower-alpha 22] ± 2.5% 2% 6% 7% 19% 4% 35% 11% 7%[lower-alpha 23]
Léger Nov 13–15, 2020 304 (A)[lower-alpha 24] ± 3.09% 4%[lower-alpha 9] 7% 4% 22% 8% 5% 45% 7%[lower-alpha 25]
6%[lower-alpha 10] 14% 6% 44% 11% 6% 10%[lower-alpha 26]
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
McLaughlin & Associates Nov 2–3, 2020 449 (LV) 2% 5% 2% 8% 30% 5% 2% 20% 6%[lower-alpha 27] 21%
YouGov/Washington Examiner Oct 30, 2020 – (RV)[lower-alpha 28] 38% 43%[lower-alpha 29]
Echelon Insights Aug 14–18, 2020 423 (LV) 2% 4% 7% 1% 26% 5% 12% 12%[lower-alpha 30] 29%
Léger Aug 4–7, 2020 309 (LV) ± 2.8% 7% 8% 11% 31% 9% 5% 17% 12%[lower-alpha 31]
Florida primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Marco
Rubio
Rick
Scott
Undecided
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/News4JAX Released August 15, 2019 – (V)[lower-alpha 32] 37% 26% 18% 19%
Georgia primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Chris
Christie
Ted
Cruz
Nikki
Haley
Mike
Pence
Mitt
Romney
Marco
Rubio
Donald
Trump
Other Undecided
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
University of Nevada/BUSR Dec 30, 2020 – Jan 3, 2021 209 (LV) ± 7% 1%[lower-alpha 9] 5% 3% 2% 3% 73% 2%
1%[lower-alpha 10] 15% 8% 36% 6% 3% 7% 24%
In Maine's 2nd congressional district

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ted
Cruz
Nikki
Haley
Mike
Pence
Marco
Rubio
Ivanka
Trump
Donald
Trump Jr.
Other Undecided
January 3, 2023 Redrawing of congressional districts after the 2020 redistricting cycle
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
SurveyUSA / FairVote Jun 30 – July 6, 2020 604 (LV) ± 4.1% 12% 12% 30% 6% 7% 11% 21%
Missouri primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Josh
Hawley
Mike
Pence
Ivanka
Trump
Undecided
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Dec 2–3, 2020 840 (LV) ± 3.4% 29% 32% 13% 26%
New Hampshire primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Tucker
Carlson
Tom
Cotton
Ted
Cruz
Nikki
Haley
Mike
Pence
Mitt
Romney
Marco
Rubio
Tim
Scott
Donald
Trump
Donald
Trump Jr.
Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire Jan 21–25, 2021 804 (A) 47% 45%[lower-alpha 33] 8%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
Praecones Analytica/NH Journal Nov 30 – Dec 2, 2020 624 (RV) ± 4% 1%[lower-alpha 9] 2% 4% 7% 6% 7% 2% 2% 57% 3% 10%
4%[lower-alpha 10] 6% 10% 12% 25% 8% 4% 3% 14% 14%
University of New Hampshire Nov 19–23, 2020 533 (RV) ± 2.2% 73% 22%[lower-alpha 34] 5%
North Carolina primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ted
Cruz
Nikki
Haley
Mike
Pence
Mitt
Romney
Marco
Rubio
Donald
Trump
Other Undecided
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
University of Nevada/BUSR Nov 30 – Dec 2, 2020 221 (RV) ± 7% 3%[lower-alpha 9] 6% 3% 2% 76% 5% 6%
9%[lower-alpha 10] 9% 48% 9% 3% 4% 18%

Timeline

See also

Notes

  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. John Hickenlooper with 3%; Tim Kaine with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar and Deval Patrick with 1%
  3. Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar and Deval Patrick with 1%
  4. 37% of the full sample of 1,500 2020 general election voters
  5. "Biden should step down after one term" with 28%
  6. John Hickenlooper with 3%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Tim Kaine and Deval Patrick with 1%
  7. Kirsten Gillibrand with 3%
  8. GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters
  9. Standard VI response
  10. If Donald Trump did not run
  11. Rand Paul with 3%; John Kasich and "Someone else" with 2%; Dan Crenshaw, Tom Cotton, Mike Pompeo and Tim Scott with 1%; Greg Abbott, Josh Hawley, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%
  12. Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.[110]
  13. Tim Scott and Ben Sasse with 3%; Mike Pompeo and Rick Scott; Josh Hawley and Ivanka Trump with 1%
  14. Mike Pompeo, Ben Sasse, Tim Scott and Ivanka Trump with 3%; Josh Hawley and Rick Scott with 2%
  15. Listed as "Skipped"
  16. "Someone else" with 5%; Kristi Noem and Tim Scott with 2%; Josh Hawley, Mike Pompeo, and Tom Cotton with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  17. John Kasich and Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton, Mike Pompeo and Tim Scott with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  18. "Would not like to see Trump run for president in 2024" with 21%
  19. John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem, Mike Pompeo, Rick Scott and Tim Scott with 1%
  20. Ivanka Trump with 4%; John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Tim Scott with 2%; Mike Pompeo with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  21. Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Josh Hawley, Kristi Noem, Rick Scott and Tim Scott with 1%; Charlie Baker with 0%
  22. 37% of the full sample of 1,500 2020 general election voters
  23. Tim Scott and Ivanka Trump with 2%; Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Ben Sasse with 1%
  24. Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults
  25. John Kasich, Mike Pompeo and Rick Scott with 2%; Rick Santorum with 1%
  26. Mike Pompeo and Rick Santorum with 3%; John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%
  27. John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem, Rick Scott and Tim Scott with 1%
  28. Republican subsample of 1,200 registered voters
  29. Respondents who think Trump should do something other than running for president in 2024 with 43%
  30. "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton, Dan Crenshaw, Lindsay Graham and John Kasich with 2%; Tim Scott with 1%; Josh Hawley, Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%
  31. Paul Ryan with 4%; Mike Pompeo and Ivanka Trump with 3%; Kevin McCarthy with 2%
  32. Not yet released
  33. 45% do not want Trump run in the 2024 presidential election
  34. 22% do not want Trump run in the 2024 presidential election

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