2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary
The 2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary took place in Michigan, United States, on Tuesday, March 10, 2020, as one of several states voting the week after Super Tuesday in the Democratic Party presidential primaries for the 2020 presidential election. The Michigan primary is an open primary,[1] with the state awarding 147 delegates, of which 125 are pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary. Polling places closed at 8pm local time (eastern time for most of the state); however, anyone who was already in line at 8pm had to be allowed to vote.
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147 Democratic National Convention delegates (125 pledged, 22 unpledged) The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote | |||||||||||||||||||
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 Election results by county Joe Biden | |||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Michigan |
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At 9:05pm EDT, the Associated Press declared Joe Biden the winner of the Michigan primary. Biden won every county in the state. The results marked a clear regression in support for Bernie Sanders from 2016, when he edged out Hillary Clinton by 1.42% and won 73 of the state's 83 counties.[2] Biden's victory was powered by support from African Americans, older voters, working class voters, and moderate voters.[3]
Procedure
Michigan is one of 6 states which held primaries on March 10, 2020, one week after Super Tuesday.[4]
Voting took place throughout the state from 7:00 a.m. until 8:00 p.m. local time. In the open primary, candidates must meet a threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable. The 125 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention will be allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of the 125 pledged delegates, between 4 and 9[5] are allocated to each of the state's 14 congressional districts and another 16 are allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 27 at-large pledged delegates. Bonus delegates will be allocated as Michigan shares a primary date with numerous other states holding contests the week after Super Tuesday; these numbers do not yet account for these delegates.[6]
After district conventions on Saturday, May 16, 2020, during which district-level delegates will be selected, the state central committee meeting will subsequently be held on Saturday, June 13, 2020, to vote on the 27 pledged at-large and 16 PLEO delegates to send to the Democratic National Convention. The 125 pledged delegates Michigan sends to the national convention will be joined by 22 unpledged PLEO delegates (12 members of the Democratic National Committee; 9 members of Congress, including both Senators and 7 U.S. Representatives; and the governor).[6]
Candidates
The following people have been included on the initial list issued on November 8, 2019, by the Michigan Secretary of State for the presidential primary.[7]
Running
Withdrawn
Polling
| Polling aggregation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden |
Bernie Sanders |
Tulsi Gabbard |
Other/ Undecided[lower-alpha 1] | |
| 270 to Win | Mar 10, 2020 | Mar 4–9, 2020 | 57.0% | 32.3% | 1.3% | 9.4% | |
| RealClear Politics | Mar 10, 2020 | Mar 4–9, 2020 | 55.7% | 33.3% | 1.3% | 9.7% | |
| FiveThirtyEight | Mar 10, 2020 | until Mar 9, 2020[lower-alpha 2] | 55.3% | 31.9% | 1.2% | 11.6% | |
| Average | 56.0% | 32.5% | 1.3% | 10.2% | |||
| Michigan primary results (March 10, 2020) | 52.9% | 36.4% | 0.6% | 10.1% | |||
| Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Michigan Democratic primary | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden |
Michael Bloomberg |
Cory Booker |
Pete Buttigieg |
Kamala Harris |
Amy Klobuchar |
Beto O'Rourke |
Bernie Sanders |
Elizabeth Warren |
Andrew Yang |
Other | Undecided | |
| Swayable | Mar 9, 2020 | 3,126 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 62% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 28% | – | – | 10%[lower-alpha 4] | – | |
| AtlasIntel | Mar 7–9, 2020 | 528 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 3% | – | – | – | – | – | 40% | 1% | – | 3%[lower-alpha 5] | 5% | |
| Data for Progress | Mar 7–9, 2020 | 320 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 59% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 38% | – | – | 2%[lower-alpha 6] | – | |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | Mar 8, 2020 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 54% | 1% | – | 1% | – | 1% | – | 33% | 3% | – | 3%[lower-alpha 7] | 5% | |
| Target Insyght | Mar 8, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 65% | 2% | – | – | – | 1% | – | 24% | 3% | – | 3%[lower-alpha 8] | 1% | |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners/ The Welcome Party |
Mar 7–8, 2020 | 305 (LV) | – | 54% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 23% | – | – | 1%[lower-alpha 9] | 22% | |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | Mar 6–8, 2020 | –(RV)[lower-alpha 10] | ± 5.8% | 54% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 42% | – | – | – | – | |
| Monmouth University | Mar 5–8, 2020 | 411 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 51% | 3% | – | <1% | – | <1% | – | 36% | 1% | – | 7%[lower-alpha 11] | 2% | |
| ROI Rocket | Mar 4–8, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 55% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 45% | – | – | – | – | |
| The Progress Campaign (D) | Mar 3–7, 2020 | 417 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 51% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 44% | – | – | 1% | 4%[lower-alpha 12] | |
| EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press | Mar 4–6, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 27% | – | – | 9%[lower-alpha 13] | 13%[lower-alpha 14] | |
| Warren withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Bloomberg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Klobuchar withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Buttigieg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| GlenGariff Group Inc./Detroit News/WDIV-TV | Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 29% | 11% | – | 6% | – | 3% | – | 23% | 7% | – | 6%[lower-alpha 15] | 16% | |
| South Carolina primary; Steyer withdraws from the race after close of polls | ||||||||||||||||
| YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison | Feb 11–20, 2020 | 662 (LV) | – | 16% | 13% | – | 11% | – | 8% | – | 25% | 13% | – | – | 14%[lower-alpha 16] | |
| New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race after close of polls | ||||||||||||||||
| Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University |
Jan 8–20, 2020 | 477 (RV) | – | 27% | 9.1% | – | 6.3% | – | 1.9% | – | 21.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | 5.3%[lower-alpha 17] | 10.6% | |
| Booker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Bloomberg announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
| Emerson College | Oct 31 – Nov 3, 2019 | 454 | ± 4.6% | 34% | – | 3% | 8% | 3% | 0% | – | 28% | 19% | 2% | 3%[lower-alpha 18] | – | |
| O'Rourke withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Siena Research/New York Times | Oct 13–26, 2019 | 203 | – | 30% | – | 0% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 17% | 21% | 1% | 1%[lower-alpha 19] | 23% | |
| Kaiser Family Foundation | Sep 23 – Oct 15, 2019 | 208 (LV) | – | 19% | – | 1% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 15% | 25% | 1% | 0%[lower-alpha 20] | 27% | |
| Denno Research | Sep 21–24, 2019 | 217 | – | 27% | – | 1% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 12% | 23% | 1% | 4%[lower-alpha 21] | 23%[lower-alpha 22] | |
| Climate Nexus | Jul 14–17, 2019 | 324 (LV) | – | 35% | – | 2% | 4% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 16% | 14% | 1% | 2%[lower-alpha 23] | 13%[lower-alpha 24] | |
| Zogby Analytics | May 23–29, 2019 | 268 | ± 6.0% | 27% | – | 1% | 9% | 7% | 1% | 4% | 18% | 8% | 2% | 5%[lower-alpha 25] | – | |
| Denno Research | May 8–10, 2019 | 235 | – | 37% | – | 3% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 16% | 9% | 0% | 4%[lower-alpha 26] | 23% | |
| Biden announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
| Buttigieg announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
| O'Rourke announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
| Emerson College | Mar 7–10, 2019 | 317 | ± 5.5% | 40% | – | 3% | 0% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 23% | 11% | – | 4%[lower-alpha 27] | – | |
Results
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 840,360 | 52.93 | 73 |
| Bernie Sanders | 576,926 | 36.34 | 52 |
| Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn†) | 73,464 | 4.63 | |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†) | 26,148 | 1.65 | |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) | 22,462 | 1.41 | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn†) | 11,018 | 0.69 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 9,461 | 0.60 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn†) | 2,380 | 0.15 | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn†) | 1,732 | 0.11 | |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn†) | 1,536 | 0.10 | |
| Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 840 | 0.05 | |
| Joe Sestak (withdrawn) | 757 | 0.05 | |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 719 | 0.05 | |
| John Delaney (withdrawn†) | 464 | 0.03 | |
| Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 306 | 0.02 | |
| Uncommitted | 19,106 | 1.20 | |
| Total | 1,587,679 | 100% | 125 |
†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.
Notes
- Additional candidates
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined
- FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 9%
- Gabbard with 2%; "Other" with 1%
- Gabbard with 2%
- Steyer with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
- Steyer with 0%; "Other" with 1%; "Uncommitted" with 3%
- Gabbard with 1%
- Part of a 1,750 registered voter poll of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
- Gabbard with 1%; Steyer with 0%; "Uncommitted" with 6%
- Listed as "undecided/would not vote"
- "Other" with 9%
- "Declined" with 13%
- Gabbard with 1%; Bennet, Booker, Delaney, Steyer, and Williamson with 0%; Castro and Sestak with no voters; "Refused" with 5%
- "Not sure/other" with 14%
- Steyer with 1.7%; Delaney with 1.6%; Bennet with 0.8%; Gabbard with 0.7%; Patrick with 0.5%
- Gabbard with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Sestak, and Williamson with 0%; Someone else with 2%
- Gabbard with 1%; others with 0%
- Castro and Steyer with no voters; someone else with 0%
- Bennet with 2%; Gabbard, Delaney with 1%; Bullock, Castro, Messam, Ryan, Sestak, Steyer and Williamson with 0%
- Labelled as "Other/unsure"
- Gabbard and Steyer with 1%; Bennet, de Blasio, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Sestak and Williamson with 0%
- Labelled as "Other/unsure"
- Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, and Hickenlooper with 1%; Inslee with 0%
- Bennet, Gabbard, Gillibrand, and Swalwell with 1%; Castro, Delaney, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Williamson, and Yang with 0%
- Gillibrand and Hickenlooper with 1%; Castro, Gabbard, and Inslee with 0%; others with 3%
References
- "Election 2020 — Democratic Delegate Count". Real Clear Politics. March 10, 2020. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
- "Live Primary Election Results: Michigan, Washington and More". New York Times. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/michigan-democratic-primary-live-results/
- Putnam, Josh. "The 2020 Presidential Primary Calendar". Frontloading HQ. Retrieved June 23, 2019.
- "2020 Delegate Selection Plan FINAL" (PDF). Michigan Democratic Party. Retrieved March 5, 2020.
- "Michigan Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. May 3, 2019. Retrieved June 23, 2019.
- Barrett, Malachi (November 8, 2019). "Michigan Secretary of State issues 2020 presidential primary candidate list". mlive.
- "2020 Michigan Election Results". Michigan Secretary of State. Retrieved June 11, 2020.