2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary

The 2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary was held on March 8 in the U.S. state of Michigan as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary

March 8, 2016 (2016-03-08)
 
Candidate Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton
Home state Vermont New York
Delegate count 67 63
Popular vote 598,943 581,775
Percentage 49.68% 48.26%

Michigan results by county
  Bernie Sanders
  Hillary Clinton

On the same day, the Democratic Party held a second primary in Mississippi, while the Republican Party held primaries in four states, including their own Michigan primary. Bernie Sanders' narrow win was one of the largest upsets in American political history, with polling before the primary showing him trailing Hillary Clinton by an average of 21.4 points.[1]

Clinton lost Michigan by a narrow margin of 0.23% in the general election, against Republican nominee Donald Trump. In retrospect, the Democratic primary results in Michigan foreshadowed the general election results.[2]

Forums and debates

March 2016 debate in Flint

On March 6, 2016 the Democratic Party held a seventh presidential debate at The Whiting at the Flint Cultural Center. Flint, Michigan was chosen as the center of the ongoing Flint water crisis.[3] The debate was hosted by Anderson Cooper and aired on CNN. Participants were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. At the end of the debate, Cooper announced a labor union fund had committed $25 million in low-interest loans towards repairing the water system.

March 2016 forum in Detroit

The next day, on March 7, 2016, a Town Hall event, was held as the eighth democratic forum. It started at 6:00 p.m. E.S.T., at the Gem Theatre in Detroit, Michigan, and was aired by the Fox News Channel.[4] The forum was moderated by Bret Baier.

Opinion polling

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Official Primary results March 8, 2016 Bernie Sanders
49.7%
Hillary Clinton
48.3%
Others / Uncommitted
2.1%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[5]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 482

March 7, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided
5%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[6]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 475

March 6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
66%
Bernie Sanders
29%
Others / Undecided
5%
Monmouth[7]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 302

March 3–6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
42%
Others / Undecided
4%
ARG[8]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

March 4–5, 2016 Hillary Clinton
60%
Bernie Sanders
36%
Others / Undecided
4%
CBS News/YouGov[8]

Margin of error: ± 7.7%
Sample size: 597

March 2–4, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
44%
Others / Undecided
1%
Mitchell/FOX 2[9]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 610

March 2–3, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
37%
Others / Undecided
8%
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl[10]

Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 546

March 1–3, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
3%
MSU[11]

Margin of error: ± 6.1%
Sample size: 262

January 25-March 3, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
47%
Others / Undecided
1%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[12]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 427

March 1, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided
6%
MRG[13]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 218

February 22–27, 2016 Hillary Clinton
56%
Bernie Sanders
36%
Others / Undecided
8%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[14]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 344

February 23, 2016 Hillary Clinton
65%
Bernie Sanders
31%
Others / Undecided
4%
ARG[15]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 400

February 19–20, 2016 Hillary Clinton
53%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
7%
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell[16]

Margin of error: ± 4.69%
Sample size: 430

February 15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
60%
Bernie Sanders
27%
Others / Undecided 13%
Public Policy Polling[17]

Margin of error: ± 4.4
Sample size: 500

February 14–16, 2016 Hillary Clinton
50%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell[18]

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 321

February 4, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
28%
Others / Undecided 15%
IMP/Target Insyght [18]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

February 2–4, 2016 Hillary Clinton
62%
Bernie Sanders
30%
Others / Undecided 8%
Marketing Resource Group[19]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 600

September 9–14, 2015 Hillary Clinton
41%
Bernie Sanders
22%
Joe Biden 22% Martin O'Malley 1%, Undecided 12%
Public Policy Polling[20]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 431

June 25–28, 2015 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
25%
Lincoln Chafee 5% Jim Webb 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Not sure 10%
Suffolk

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: 212

September 6–10, 2014 Hillary Clinton
61%
Joe Biden
17%
Elizabeth Warren
7%
Andrew Cuomo 4%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Undecided 9%, Refused 1%

Results

Michigan Democratic primary, March 8, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 598,943 49.68% 67 0 67
Hillary Clinton 581,775 48.26% 63 10 73
Uncommitted 21,601 1.79% 0 7 7
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 2,363 0.20%
Rocky De La Fuente 870 0.07%
Total 1,205,552 100% 130 17 147
Source: The Green Papers
Michigan Democratic primary, March 8, 2016
District Delegates Votes Clinton Votes Sanders Votes Qualified Clinton delegates Sanders delegates
1 6 28,860 44,359 73,219 2 4
2 5 26,090 39,834 65,924 2 3
3 5 28,441 45,282 73,723 2 3
4 5 24,928 35,597 60,525 2 3
5 7 48,622 42,755 91,377 4 3
6 5 28,265 39,157 67,422 2 3
7 5 29,186 36,019 65,205 2 3
8 5 35,205 46,969 82,174 2 3
9 6 48,570 50,903 99,473 3 3
10 5 28,314 33,710 62,024 2 3
11 6 39,732 45,054 84,786 3 3
12 7 50,157 58,892 109,049 3 4
13 9 71,235 37,028 108,263 6 3
14 9 88,494 42,608 131,102 6 3
Total 85 581,775 598,943 1,180,718 41 44
PLEO 17 581,775 598,943 1,180,718 8 9
At Large 28 581,775 598,943 1,180,718 14 14
Gr. Total 130 581,775 598,943 1,180,718 63 67
Total vote 1,205,552 48.26% 49.68%
Source: Michigan Department of State Election results (District 13 and 14 Wayne County) partial

Results by county

County Clinton % Sanders % Others Totals Turnout Margin
Alcona46348.74%45547.89% 26 947 30.60% -0.84%
Alger38437.07%62260.64% 26 1,035 44.61% 23.00%
Allegan3,51138.01%5,56960.28% 16 9,050 11.28% 22.29%
Alpena1,10244.26%1,34754.10% 26 2,478 36.51% 9.89%
Antrim86736.09%1,49162.07% 39 2,400 32.72% 26.00%
Arenac59546.12%66351.40% 24 1,285 35.89% 5.29%
Baraga27040.36%37155.46% 25 669 37.93% 15.10%
Barry1,73635.41%3,07862.79% 74 4,891 31.62% 27.44%
Bay5,93745.98%6,36349.28% 555 12,858 47.83% 3.31%
Benzie85333.48%1,65064.76% 43 2,549 44.66% 31.27%
Berrien6,69851.54%5,96845.93% 285 12,954 36.25% -5.64%
Branch1,01043.44%1,24653.59% 59 2,318 27.23% 10.18%
Calhoun5,23146.36%5,81251.51% 201 11,247 41.28% 5.17%
Cass1,65748.37%1,68449.15% 69 3,413 31.70% 0.79%
Charlevoix1,04436.73%1,73060.87% 58 2,835 36.23% 24.20%
Cheboygan1,01042.62%1,31855.61% 36 2,367 34.21% 13.01%
Chippewa1,23039.83%1,79358.06% 55 3,081 38.49% 18.27%
Clare1,09045.76%1,23952.02% 43 2,375 35.01% 6.27%
Clinton3,40242.16%4,49655.72% 150 8,051 38.76% 13.59%
Crawford49442.33%63154.07% 36 1,164 33.90% 11.77%
Delta1,40943.34%1,70552.45% 122 3,239 39.53% 9.14%
Dickinson90843.51%1,07551.51% 99 2,085 30.20% 8.01%
Eaton5,86643.99%7,12553.43% 298 13,292 44.13% 9.47%
Emmet1,36933.91%2,58964.13% 68 4,029 14.48% 30.28%
Genesee31,36651.75%28,17146.48% 946 60,486 59.79% -5.28%
Gladwin98546.33%1,08350.94% 46 2,117 33.72%
Gogebic67844.90%79052.32% 38 1,509 46.65%
Grand Traverse4,14033.19%8,09164.86% 206 12,440 41.56%
Gratiot1,18538.87%1,81259.43% 42 3,042 38.52%
Hillsdale97740.17%1,38056.74% 59 2,419 24.31%
Houghton1,10934.79%2,03963.96% 35 3,186 41.79%
Huron1,05045.99%1,18451.86% 36 2,273 29.30%
Ingham17,88443.49%22,58054.91% 562 41,029 59.65%
Ionia1,49133.99%2,81264.11% 62 4,368 34.63%
Iosco1,07746.08%1,20251.43% 54 2,336 37.45%
Iron52748.30%54650.05% 18 1,094 36.11%
Isabella2,03233.19%4,02465.72% 55 6,114 49.53%
Jackson5,28842.72%6,80454.97% 230 12,325 37.16%
Kalamazoo12,61137.92%20,16260.63% 408 33,184 50.40%
Kalkaska59035.53%98761.11% 30 1,610 30.46%
Kent26,03236.86%43,44461.52% 987 70,506
Keweenaw12839.75%18858.39% 6 325
Lake54850.14%51447.03% 30 1,095
Lapeer3,32540.39%4,65056.49% 221 8,199
Leelanau1,45937.67%2,36060.93% 44 3,866
Lenawee3,45543.73%4,25653.87% 163 7,877
Livingston6,70538.14%10,43559.35% 396 17,539
Luce16735.46%29161.78% 11 472
Mackinac50042.77%63354.15% 29 1,165
Macomb47,59948.80%46,24847.42% 2,534 71,008
Manistee1,12039.63%1,64658.24% 51 2,820
Marquette3,18835.59%5,53061.74% 203 8,924
Mason1,22340.56%1,74157.24% 38 2,772
Mecosta1,17338.88%1,76858.60% 63 3,007
Menominee83548.72%80546.97% 64 1,707
Midland3,09739.81%4,56858.71% 88 7,756
Missaukee40139.08%59157.60% 33 1,028
Monroe6,71647.25%6,84248.13% 595 14,156
Montcalm1,68136.85%2,76260.54%
Montmorency39248.70%38347.58%
Muskegon8,80744.53%10,45652.86%
Newaygo1,29536.49%2,15560.72%
Oakland92,30051.38%84,16346.85%
Oceana79138.21%1,23759.76%
Ogemaw86246.24%92649.68%
Ontonagon32744.37%36249.12%
Osceola67040.39%95357.44%
Oscoda27344.90%31551.81%
Otsego78637.97%1,22859.5%
Ottawa7,47334.39%13,95964.24%
Presque Isle59247.70%60648.83%
Roscommon1,16347.33%1,18748.31%
Saginaw12,49055.32%9,67642.86%
St. Clair5,97340.96%8,34756.54%
St. Joseph1,38237.66%2,21960.46%
Sanilac1,16042.00%1,48553.77%
Schoolcraft31245.75%34550.59%
Shiawassee3,03139.38%4,45257.84%
Tuscola1,98442.65%2,53254.43%
Van Buren2,48439.73%3,65658.48%
Washtenaw30,02243.70%38,06255.41%
Wayne165,81960.11%105,48738.24%
Wexford90932.95%1,79364.99%
Total581,77548.26%598,94349.68%

Analysis

Bernie Sanders's narrow, one-point win in Michigan was seen as a major upset for the Clinton campaign, since Bernie Sanders had never led a poll in that state. Many theories about the failure of the Michigan polling circulated throughout the media, with most centering on pollsters' erroneous assumptions about the composition of the electorate stemming from the 2008 primary in Michigan not having been contested due to an impasse between the state party and DNC.[73][74][75] Although Clinton expanded her delegate lead with a lopsided victory in Mississippi that same day, some journalists suggested Sanders' upset might presage her defeat in other delegate-rich Midwestern Rust Belt states,[76] such as Missouri, Ohio and Illinois, who voted a week later on March 15, along with North Carolina and Florida, where Clinton was more clearly favored.[77][78]

Sanders beat Clinton among white voters in Michigan, who made up 70% of the electorate, by a margin of 56–42, a margin perhaps larger than the Clinton campaign had anticipated. Independents, who made up 27% of the electorate, backed Sanders 71–28. As was true in other primaries, Clinton won the votes of women and African Americans, but Sanders's margins with Independents and rural voters, mostly working class whites who felt disaffected and disenfranchised by trade deals championed by Hillary Clinton and her husband,[21] were not able to be surpassed, even by Clinton's large leads in major cities such as Detroit and Flint. Among voters who said their primary concern was the U.S. economy, Sanders won 56–40, even though Clinton had hammered him on his 2009 vote against the auto-bailout which she believed would resonate in a state whose economy depended upon manufacturing and the auto industry. Among unions, Sanders had beaten Clinton 49–46, even though in previous contests union households had broken for Clinton.[22] Hand-wringing began on the Clinton side, with the campaign worrying they turned their attention to the general election too soon, as Hillary Clinton had pleaded "the sooner I could become your nominee, the more I could begin to turn my attention to the Republicans."[23]

Sanders thanked supporters after his surprise win, "What tonight means is that the Bernie Sanders campaign, the people's revolution that we're talking about, the political revolution that we're talking about, is strong in every part of the country [...] And, frankly, we believe our strongest areas are yet to happen."[23]

Clinton went on to win the next five states in the Democratic primary, including Ohio, Illinois and Missouri.

References

  1. "Election 2016 - Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary". realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved 2016-05-28.
  2. "Michigan Romp Shows Biden Could Rebuild Democrats' 'Blue Wall' vs. Trump".
  3. "Flint gets Democratic presidential debate on March 6". Detroit News. February 3, 2016. Retrieved February 3, 2016.
  4. Feldman, Josh. "Fox News Will Hold Democratic Town Hall Next Week; Only One Candidate Set to Appear". MSN. Archived from the original on 2016-03-07. Retrieved 2016-03-04.
  5. "Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary".
  6. "Clinton Opens Up Huge Lead in Michigan" (PDF).
  7. "MICHIGAN: TRUMP, CLINTON IN FRONT" (PDF).
  8. "Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary".
  9. "Clinton's lead on Sanders shrinks heading into Michigan Primary".
  10. "Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton Hold Big Leads in Michigan: Poll".
  11. "TRUMP LEADS GOP FIELD IN MICHIGAN; DEMOCRATIC RACE CLOSE".
  12. "Clinton, Trump maintain large leads ahead of debates, primary".
  13. "Trump & Clinton Poised to Take Michigan" (PDF).
  14. "Clinton Leads Sanders by 34% February 23, 2016" (PDF).
  15. "ARG POll February 19–20, 2016".
  16. "Clinton Leads Sanders by 33%" (PDF). realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved 20 February 2016.
  17. "Subject: Clinton leads in 10 of 12 Early March Primaries; Benefits From Overwhelming Black Support" (PDF).
  18. "IMP/Target Insyght Poll: Clinton Dominates Dem Primary". insidemichiganpolitics.com. Retrieved 2016-02-08.
  19. "Hillary up 19 over Biden and Sanders". mrgmi.com. Retrieved 2015-09-16.
  20. "PPP MI" (PDF). publicpolicypolling.com. Retrieved 2015-07-09.
  21. Lee, MJ; Zeleny, Jeff; Bash, Dana; Merica, Dan. "What went wrong for Hillary Clinton?". CNN. Retrieved 2016-09-25.
  22. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2016-09-25.
  23. Lee, MJ; Zeleny, Jeff; Bash, Dana; Merica, Dan. "What went wrong for Hillary Clinton?". CNN. Retrieved 2016-09-25.
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