2020 Queensland state election

The 2020 Queensland state election was held on 31 October to elect all 93 members to the Legislative Assembly of Queensland. The Labor Party was returned to government for a third-term, led by incumbent premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.[1] With 47 seats needed to form a majority government, Labor won 52 seats, while the Liberal National Party won 34 seats and formed opposition. On the crossbench, Katter's Australian Party retained its 3 seats, the Queensland Greens won an additional seat for a total of 2, Pauline Hanson's One Nation retained Mirani and independent Sandy Bolton retained her seat of Noosa.

2020 Queensland state election
31 October 2020
All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland
47 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout3,377,476 (87.9%; 0.4)
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk Deb Frecklington Robbie Katter
Party Labor Liberal National Katter's Australian
Leader since 28 March 2012 (2012-03-28) 12 December 2017 (2017-12-12) 2 February 2015 (2015-02-02)
Leader's seat Inala Nanango Traeger
Last election 48 seats 39 seats 3 seats
Seats after 52 seats 34 seats 3 seats
Seat change 4 5
Popular vote 1,134,969 1,029,442 72,168
Percentage 39.6% 35.9% 2.5%
Swing 4.1 2.2 0.2
TPP 53.2% 46.8%
TPP swing 1.9 1.9
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader No leader Pauline Hanson
Party Greens One Nation
Leader since N/A N/A
Leader's seat N/A N/A
Last election 1 seat 1 seat
Seats after 2 seats 1 seat
Seat change 1
Popular vote 271,514 204,316
Percentage 9.5% 7.1%
Swing 0.5 6.6
The map on the left shows the first party preference by electorate. The map on the right shows the final two-party preferred vote result by electorate.
Premier before election

Annastacia Palaszczuk
Labor

 Elected Premier

Annastacia Palaszczuk
Labor

At 11pm on 31 October, Liberal National Party leader Deb Frecklington conceded defeat, congratulating Palaszczuk on the election.[1] Frecklington initially indicated that she would stay on as party leader, but on 2 November announced that she would convene a party meeting and resign as leader.[2] David Crisafulli was elected LNP leader on 12 November 2020.[3]

Palaszczuk became the first woman party leader to win three state elections in Australia,[4] as well as the first Queensland Premier to increase their party's seat total across three successive elections.[5]

Results
Main articles: Results of the 2020 Queensland state election; Post-election pendulum for the 2020 Queensland state election; and Members of the Queensland Legislative Assembly, 2020–2024
Legislative Assembly (IRV) – Turnout 87.9% (CV)[6][7]
Party Votes % Swing Seats +/–
  Labor 1,134,969 39.57 +4.14 52 4
  Liberal National 1,029,442 35.89 +2.20 34 5
  Greens 271,514 9.47 −0.53 2 1
  One Nation 204,316 7.12 −6.60 1
  Katter's Australian 72,168 2.52 +0.20 3
  Legalise Cannabis 26,146 0.91 +0.91 0
  United Australia 17,904 0.62 +0.62 0
  Informed Medical Options 17,546 0.61 +0.61 0
  Animal Justice 9,703 0.34 +0.34 0
  North Queensland First 5,616 0.20 +0.20 0
  Civil Liberties and Motorists 5,207 0.18 −0.08[lower-alpha 1] 0
  Shooters, Fishers, Farmers 2,801 0.10 +0.10 0
  Independents 70,992 2.48 −2.10 1
 Formal votes 2,868,324 96.60 +0.94
 Informal votes 101,023 3.40 −0.94
 Total 2,969,347
 Registered voters/Turnout 3,377,476 87.92 +0.39
Two-party-preferred vote[8]
Labor 1,524,766 53.2 1.9
Liberal National 1,343,558 46.8 1.9

Vote Summary
Popular vote
Labor
 
 39.57%
LNP
 
 35.89%
Greens
 
 9.47%
One Nation
 
 7.12%
Katter's
 
 2.52%
Independents
 
 2.48%
Other
 
 2.95%
Two-party preferred vote
Labor
 
 53.2%
LNP
 
 46.8%
Seats summary
Labor
 
 55.91%
LNP
 
 36.56%
Katter's
 
 3.23%
Greens
 
 2.15%
One Nation
 
 1.08%
Independents
 
 1.08%

Seats changing parties

Six seats changed parties in this election.[9] Five seats changed from Liberal National to Labor,[10] while South Brisbane changed from Labor to the Greens.[11]

Seat Pre-election Swing Post-election
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Bundaberg Liberal National David Batt 4.2 4.2 0.01 Tom Smith Labor
Caloundra Liberal National Mark McArdle 3.4 5.9 2.5 Jason Hunt Labor
Hervey Bay Liberal National Ted Sorensen 9.1 11.1 2.0 Adrian Tantari Labor
Nicklin Liberal National Marty Hunt 5.3 5.4 0.1 Robert Skelton Labor
Pumicestone Liberal National Simone Wilson 0.8 6.1 5.3 Ali King Labor
South Brisbane Labor Jackie Trad 3.6 8.9 5.3 Amy MacMahon Greens
Whitsunday   | North Queensland First Jason Costigan 0.7* N/A 3.26 Amanda Camm Liberal National

Members in italics did not contest in this election. *: Jason Costigan ran as a member of the Liberal National party last election but left to form his own party. The margin listed here is the margin he won by at the last election as a Liberal National member.

Background
Main articles: 2017 Queensland state election and Post-election pendulum for the 2017 Queensland state election

At the 2017 election, Labor won majority with 48 of 93 seats and formed government in the 56th Queensland Parliament. The LNP won 39 seats and formed opposition. Being allocated to crossbench, the Katter's Australian Party won three seats, One Nation won one seat, the Greens won one seat and Independent Sandy Bolton won the seat of Noosa.

Despite two by-elections, the composition of the 56th Parliament was unchanged, with the exception of the member for Whitsunday Jason Costigan. He was expelled from the LNP over allegations of behavioural impropriety, resulting in him joining the crossbench and eventually forming the North Queensland First party.

Labor has won all but one state election since 1989, and has only been out of government for five years since then. It lost its majority in 1996, giving way to a Coalition minority government that was defeated in 1998. In 2012, it suffered the worst defeat of a sitting government in the state's history, but regained power in 2015.

This election also marks the first time that both leaders of the current government and opposition have been female in a Queensland state election.[12] It is only the second time it has occurred in an Australian state, territory or federal election, the first time being the 1995 ACT election.

A record number of minor parties and candidates ran in the election, 342 minor party candidates, 69 as independents or not officially endorsed by any party. Labor, the LNP and the Greens ran candidates in every electorate, Pauline Hanson's One Nation ran in 90 electorates.[13]

Electoral system

Queensland has compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting for single-member electorates. The election was conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ).

Of the political parties contesting the election, the party, or coalition, that win the majority of seats (at least 47) forms the government.

The party, or coalition that gains the next highest number of seats forms the opposition, with the remaining parties and independents candidates being allocated to the cross bench.

Queensland Parliament is the only unicameral state parliament in Australia. It has just one House—the Legislative Assembly.

Key dates

The election was for all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly. Pursuant to Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015 Queensland has fixed terms, with all elections following the 2020 vote scheduled every four years on the last Saturday of October. The Governor may call an election earlier than scheduled if the Government does not maintain confidence, or the annual appropriation bill fails to pass.

Under the legislation, the caretaker period commenced on 5 October 2020, 26 days prior to the election date.[14]

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, consideration was given to holding this election as a full postal ballot,[15] but this did not occur.[16] Despite this, a record number of postal votes was cast at the election, with a majority of Queenslanders voting before polling day.[16]

The election timetable is as follows:[17]

Date Event
6 October 2020 Queensland Parliament dissolved by Governor Paul de Jersey[18]
10 October 2020 Close of electoral rolls
11 October 2020 Close of nominations
19 October 2020 Early voting begins
30 October 2020 Early voting ends at 6 pm
31 October 2020 Polling day, between the hours of 8 am and 6 pm
10 November 2020 Last day for receipt of postal votes by 6 pm

Registered parties

Since the previous election, 2017, six political parties were registered by Queensland's Electoral Commission: Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, North Queensland First, the Animal Justice Party, Clive Palmer's United Australia Party, Informed Medical Options Party, and Legalise Cannabis Queensland.

The following twelve registered parties contested the election, including a record number of minor parties:

Preferences

The LNP confirmed it would preference Labor candidates last on all of its how-to-vote cards.[20] An exception is for Maiwar, a seat held by the Greens, where the LNP put the sitting Greens member below the Labor candidate in the how-to-vote card.[21]

In response to LNP's preferences, Katter's Australia Party announced it would preference Greens candidates last on its party's how-to-vote cards, with party leader Robbie Katter suggesting the LNP's decision would lead to Greens candidates winning a number of seats in Brisbane.[22] Katter's Australia Party and Pauline Hanson's One Nation also announced a preference deal on 8 October, with the parties to preference each other in second place on their how-to-vote cards.[23]

Labor confirmed it would preference One Nation last on how-to-vote cards.[21]

Retiring MPs

Labor

Liberal National

Candidates
Main article: Candidates of the 2020 Queensland state election

At the close of nominations on 11 October 2020, 597 candidates had nominated for the state election—the highest number of candidates at a Queensland state election, surpassing the previous record of 453 candidates at the 2017 election.[30]

Leaders' debates

The first leaders' debate of the campaign between Palaszczuk and Frecklington was a People's Forum hosted by Sky News and the Courier Mail and was held on 28 October.[31] The selected audience consisted of undecided voters who post-debate were asked which party they would vote for based on the debate performance of the respective leaders. A majority of 53% opted for Labor, 30% for the LNP, whilst the remaining 17% were undecided.[32]

Polling

Several research, media and polling firms conduct opinion polls during the parliamentary term and prior to the state election in relation to voting. Most firms use an estimate of the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate preferences.

Graphical summary
Primary vote.
Two-party-preferred vote.
Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the last state election. Local regression trends for each party are shown as solid lines.

Poll results
Legislative Assembly polling
Date Firm Primary vote 2pp vote
ALP LNP Green ON Other ALP LNP
25–30 Oct 2020 Newspoll[33] 37% 36% 11% 10% 6% 51.5% 48.5%
12–15 Oct 2020 Roy Morgan[34] 36% 35% 10% 12% 7% 51% 49%
9–14 Oct 2020 Newspoll[35] 37% 37% 11% 9% 6% 52% 48%
24 Sep–1 Oct 2020 YouGov[36] 37% 37% 12% 9% 5% 52% 48%
30 July 2020 Newspoll[37] 34% 38% 12% 11% 5% 49% 51%
7 June 2020 YouGov[38] 32% 38% 12% 12% 6% 48% 52%
7 February 2020 YouGov[39] 34% 35% 10% 15% 6% 50% 50%
30 August 2019 YouGov[40] 32% 37% 13% 13% 5% 49% 51%
13–14 February 2019 YouGov[41] 35% 35% 11% 8% 11% 52% 48%
7–8 November 2018 YouGov[42] 36% 34% 11% 10% 9% 53% 47%
8–9 August 2018 YouGov[43] 35% 37% 11% 10% 7% 51% 49%
9–10 May 2018 YouGov[44] 38% 35% 10% 12% 5% 53% 47%
7–8 Feb 2018 YouGov[45] 37% 36% 10% 10% 7% 52% 48%
12 December 2017 Deb Frecklington becomes leader of the Liberal National Party and Leader of the Opposition
25 Nov 2017 election 35.4% 33.7% 10.0% 13.7% 7.2% 51.2% 48.8%
21–24 Nov 2017 Newspoll[46] 36% 34% 10% 13% 7% 52.5% 47.5%
24 Nov 2017 Galaxy[47] 37% 35% 9% 12% 7% 52% 48%
20 Nov 2017 ReachTEL[48] 34% 30% 10% 17% 9% 51% 49%
Better premier/approval polling
Date Firm Better premier Palaszczuk Frecklington
Palaszczuk Frecklington Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
9–14 Oct 2020 Newspoll[49] 56% 32% 63% 33% 37% 44%
24 Sep–1 Oct 2020 YouGov[36] 48% 22% 57% 27% 29% 32%
21 September 2020 Newspoll[50] - - 63% 33% - -
30 July 2020 Newspoll[51] 57% 26% 64% 29% 34% 42%
12 June 2020 Liberal National Party[52] 42% 19% - - - -
7 June 2020 YouGov[39] 44% 23% 49% 33% 26% 29%
7 February 2020 YouGov[39] 34% 22% 29% 44% 23% 33%
30 August 2019 YouGov[53] 34% 29% 34% 45% 30% 30%
13–14 February 2019 YouGov[41] 47% 27% 48% 38% 31% 35%
7–8 November 2018 YouGov[42] 43% 26% 46% 37% 35% 29%
8–9 August 2018 YouGov[43] - - 41% 38% 31% 26%
9–10 May 2018 YouGov[44] 47% 27% 46% 38% 31% 28%
7–8 Feb 2018 YouGov[45] 42% 31% - - - -
12 December 2017 Deb Frecklington becomes leader of the Liberal National Party and Leader of the Opposition

Notes
  1. Compared to 2017 election total of Consumer Rights, which was renamed to Civil Liberties and Motorists at the 2020 election.

References
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  3. Lynch, Lydia (12 November 2020). "LNP elects new leader and deputy while recount starts in two seats". Brisbane Times. Retrieved 12 November 2020.
  4. McKenna, Kate; Nothling, Lily (2 November 2020). "Annastacia Palaszczuk wins government in Queensland, making history". ABC News. Retrieved 3 November 2020.
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