2022 South Australian state election

The 2022 South Australian state election will elect members to the 55th Parliament of South Australia on 19 March 2022. All seats in the House of Assembly or lower house, whose current members were elected at the 2018 election, and half the seats in the Legislative Council or upper house, last filled at the 2014 election, will become vacant. The first term incumbent Liberal Party of Australia (SA) government, currently led by Premier Steven Marshall, will seek a second four-year term and will be challenged by the Australian Labor Party (SA) opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Peter Malinauskas.

2022 South Australian state election
19 March 2022
All 47 seats in the South Australian House of Assembly
24 seats are needed for a majority
11 (of the 22) seats in the South Australian Legislative Council
 
Leader Steven Marshall Peter Malinauskas
Party Liberal Labor
Leader since 4 February 2013 9 April 2018
Leader's seat Dunstan Croydon
Last election 25 seats 19 seats
Current seats 24 seats 19 seats
Seats needed 5
TPP @ 2018 51.9% 48.1%
Incumbent Premier

Steven Marshall
Liberal

Like federal elections, South Australia has compulsory voting, uses full-preference instant-runoff voting for single-member electorates in the lower house and optional preference single transferable voting in the proportionally represented upper house. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of South Australia (ECSA), an independent body answerable to Parliament.

Background

House of Assembly
See also: Results of the South Australian state election, 2018 (House of Assembly)

In the House of Assembly at the 2018 election, the Liberal opposition formed a two-seat majority government with 25 of 47 seats, after retaining three of the four redistributed notionally Liberal seats won by Labor at the 2014 election (Colton, Elder and Newland) and winning the newly-created notionally ultra marginal Labor seat of King. The former 16-year four-term Labor government went in to opposition with 19 seats. The crossbench was represented by 3 independents: Frances Bedford, Troy Bell and Geoff Brock. Despite the change of government, there was actually a statewide two-party-preferred swing away from the Liberals toward Labor.[1][2][3][4]

Legislative Council
See also: Results of the South Australian state election, 2018 (Legislative Council)

In the Legislative Council at the 2018 election, the 11 of 22 seats up for election were 4 Liberal, 4 Labor, 1 Green, 1 Conservative and 1 Dignity. The final outcome was 4 Liberal, 4 Labor, 2 SA Best and 1 Green.[3][5][6] Conservative MLC Dennis Hood, who had been elected as a Family First MLC in 2014, defected to the Liberals nine days after the 2018 state election.[7][8] The 22 seat upper house composition is therefore 9 Liberal on the government benches, 8 Labor on the opposition benches, and 5 to minor parties on the crossbench, consisting of 2 SA Best, 2 Green, and 1 Advance SA.[3] The government therefore requires at least three additional non-government members to form a majority and carry votes on the floor.[9]

Pendulum
Metropolitan seats
Inner-rural seats
Outer-rural seats
See also: Members of the South Australian House of Assembly, 2018–2022
See also: South Australian state election, 2018 § Pendulum
See also: South Australian state election, 2018 § Post-redistribution pendulum
LIBERAL SEATS (24)
Marginal
Newland Richard Harvey LIB 0.1%
King Paula Luethen LIB 0.6%
Adelaide Rachel Sanderson LIB 1.0%
Elder Carolyn Habib LIB 2.0%
Fairly safe
Colton Matt Cowdrey LIB 6.1%
Hartley Vincent Tarzia LIB 6.7%
Dunstan Steven Marshall LIB 7.4%
Heysen Josh Teague LIB 7.6%
Davenport Steve Murray LIB 8.1%
Chaffey Tim Whetstone LIB 8.6%
Morialta John Gardner LIB 9.3%
Black David Speirs LIB 9.4%
Safe
Gibson Corey Wingard LIB 10.0%
Morphett Stephen Patterson LIB 11.0%
Unley David Pisoni LIB 11.5%
Stuart Dan van Holst Pellekaan LIB 11.7%
Kavel Dan Cregan LIB 14.5%
Schubert Stephan Knoll LIB 15.6%
Hammond Adrian Pederick LIB 16.9%
Bragg Vickie Chapman LIB 16.9%
Chaffey Tim Whetstone LIB 18.0%
Narrunga Fraser Ellis LIB 16.9%
Very Safe
MacKillop Nick McBride LIB 25.2%
Flinders Peter Treloar LIB 26.1%
LABOR SEATS (19)
Marginal
Mawson Leon Bignell ALP 0.7%
Wright Blair Boyer ALP 3.1%
Badcoe Jayne Stinson ALP 4.6%
Lee Stephen Mullighan ALP 5.3%
Torrens Dana Wortley ALP 5.7%
Fairly safe
Enfield Andrea Michaels ALP 6.2%
Hurtle Vale Nat Cook ALP 8.4%
Light Tony Piccolo ALP 8.4%
Reynell Katrine Hildyard ALP 9.4%
Safe
Taylor Jon Gee ALP 11.9%
West Torrens Tom Koutsantonis ALP 14.2%
Giles Eddie Hughes ALP 14.9%
Kaurna Chris Picton ALP 16.0%
Cheltenham Joe Szakacs ALP 16.7%
Port Adelaide Susan Close ALP 16.8%
Elizabeth Lee Odenwalder ALP 17.2%
Ramsay Zoe Bettison ALP 18.5%
Playford Michael Brown ALP 18.6%
Very Safe
Croydon Peter Malinauskas ALP 23.3%
INDEPENDENT SEATS (4)
Florey Frances Bedford IND 6.1% v ALP
Waite Sam Duluk IND 7.4%
Frome Geoff Brock IND 8.2% v LIB
Mt Gambier Troy Bell IND 10.3% v LIB

Retiring MPs

Liberal

Labor

Date

The last state election was held on 17 March 2018 to elect members for the House of Assembly and half of the members in the Legislative Council. In South Australia, section 28 of the Constitution Act 1934, as amended in 2001, directs that parliaments have fixed four-year terms, and elections must be held on the third Saturday in March every four years unless this date falls the day after Good Friday, occurs within the same month as a Commonwealth election, or the conduct of the election could be adversely affected by a state disaster. Section 28 also states that the Governor may also dissolve the Assembly and call an election for an earlier date if the Government has lost the confidence of the Assembly or a bill of special importance has been rejected by the Legislative Council. Section 41 states that both the Council and the Assembly may also be dissolved simultaneously if a deadlock occurs between them.[13] This means that barring unforeseen events, the election will be held on 19 March 2022.

The Electoral (Miscellaneous) Amendment Act 2013 introduced set dates for writs for general elections in South Australia. The writ sets the dates for the close of the electoral roll and the close of nominations for an election. The Electoral Act 1985 requires that, for a general election, the writ be issued 28 days before the date fixed for polling (S47(2a)) and the electoral roll be closed at 12 noon, 6 days after the issue of the writ (S48(3(a)(i). The close of nominations will be at 12 noon 3 days after the close of rolls (Electoral Act 1985 S48(4)(a) and S4(1)).

Polling
House of Assembly (lower house) polling
Date Firm Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP BST GRN OTH LIB ALP
18 Sep 2020 YouGov[14] 46% 35% 5% 10% 4% 53% 47%
13 Mar 2020 YouGov[15] 39% 38% 7% 11% 5% 47% 53%
16 Mar 2019 YouGov–Galaxy[16] 42% 37% 7% 7% 10% 52% 48%
17 Mar 2018 election 38% 32.8% 14.2% 6.7% 8.4% 51.9% 48.1%




Better Premier and satisfaction polling^
Date Firm Better Premier Marshall Malinauskas
Marshall Malinauskas Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
18 Sep 2020 YouGov[14] 54% 26% 68% 16% 44% 22%
13 Mar 2020 YouGov[15] 38% 36% 37% 41% 44% 26%
16 Mar 2019 YouGov–Galaxy[16] 46% 26%
Marshall Weatherill Marshall Weatherill
15 Mar 2014 election – – – – – –
27 Feb–1 Mar 2018 Newspoll 31% 38% 28% 54% 33% 54%
13–15 Mar 2018 Newspoll 33% 38% 30% 50% 33% 53%
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

See also

References
  1. Antony Green. "2018 SA election results". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 2018-06-11.
  2. "House of Assembly State Summary". Electoral Commission of South Australia. Government of South Australia. March 2018. Retrieved 17 March 2018.
  3. Antony Green (2018-04-04). "Final Results of the 2018 South Australian Election". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 2018-06-11.
  4. "Notional two-party preferred results". ECSA. Archived from the original on 4 April 2018. Retrieved 4 April 2018.
  5. "2018 Legislative Council election results: ECSA 23 April 2018". Archived from the original on 24 April 2018. Retrieved 24 April 2018.
  6. William Bowe (2018-03-18). "Third time lucky". Pollbludger.net. Retrieved 2018-06-11.
  7. "Dennis Hood dumps Cory Bernardi's Australian Conservatives to join SA Liberals". Abc.net.au. 2018-03-26. Retrieved 2018-06-11.
  8. ""We didn't realise the power of Family First": Fallen Conservative rues botched re-branding". Indaily.com.au. 2018-03-20. Retrieved 2018-06-11.
  9. ""They're dickheads": Darley kills off power-sharing deal with X-colleagues". Indaily.com.au. 2018-04-23. Retrieved 2018-06-11.
  10. "Member for Flinders Peter Treloar decides to not seek re-nomination". Port Lincoln Times. 1 December 2020. Retrieved 2 December 2020.
  11. Isabel, Dayman (1 December 2020). "Former South Australian transport minister Stephan Knoll to quit at 2022 election". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 2 December 2020.
  12. Dornin, Tim (27 January 2021). "SA Labor MP Jon Gee to call it quits". The West Australian. AAP. Retrieved 28 January 2021.
  13. "Australian elections timetable". Australian Parliamentary Library. Retrieved 5 February 2013.
  14. "Advertiser-YouGov poll: Premier Steven Marshall surges as preferred leader and Libs take the lead, as SA crushes the COVID curve". www.adelaidenow.com.au. Retrieved 2020-09-20.
  15. "Liberals on the slide in SA poll". www.adelaidenow.com.au. 2020-03-13. Retrieved 2020-03-13.
  16. "First Published poll of the state voting intention in South Australia". adelaidenow.com.au. 16 March 2019. Retrieved 16 March 2019.
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