2023 New South Wales state election

The 2023 New South Wales state election will be held on Saturday 25 March 2023 to elect the 58th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election will be conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

2023 New South Wales state election
25 March 2023
All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly
and 21 (of the 42) seats in the Legislative Council
47 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
ALP
Leader Gladys Berejiklian Jodi McKay
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor
Leader since 23 January 2017 29 June 2019 (2019-06-29)
Leader's seat Willoughby Strathfield
Last election 48 seats 36 seats
Current seats 48 seats 36 seats
Seats needed 11
 
SFF
Leader No leader No leader
Party Greens Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
Last election 3 seats 3 seats
Current seats 3 seats 3 seats
Seats needed 44 44
Incumbent Premier

Gladys Berejiklian
Liberal

The third-term incumbent Liberal/National Coalition government, currently led by Premier Gladys Berejiklian, will seek a fourth four-year term against the Labor opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Jodi McKay.

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with optional preferential voting in single-member seats for the lower house and single transferable vote with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house.

Background
See also: 2019 New South Wales state election and Post-election pendulum for the 2019 New South Wales state election

At the 2019 election, the Coalition won a third term in government for the first time since 1971 while Gladys Berejiklian became the first woman in New South Wales to lead a party to a state election victory. At the election the Liberals won 35 seats while the Nationals won 13 seats, thus giving the Coalition a combined total of 48 seats, one more than the minimum 47 required for a majority.

The Labor Party won 36 seats and overtook the Liberals to become the largest single party in the Legislative Assembly. However, the party only managed to gain two seats from the Coalition, Coogee from the Liberals and Lismore from the Nationals.

The Greens strengthened their hold on the three seats they held prior to the election while the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers held onto Orange, a seat the party had won from the Nationals at a by-election, while also taking Barwon and Murray from the Nationals.

Independents Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich both retained the seats of Lake Macquarie and Sydney, respectively, while Joe McGirr successfully held on to the seat of Wagga Wagga he won in a by-election.

Following a controversy surrounding koala policy, on 10 September 2020, Nationals leader John Barilaro announced his party would no longer support government legislation and sit on the crossbench, while still holding ministerial positions. Premier Berejiklian has threatened to sack all Nationals ministers if they do not abandon their plan by 9:00am, 11 September 2020.[1] However, following a meeting between the Premier and Deputy Premier in the morning of 11 September, the Nationals backed down on their decision to move to the crossbench.

Date

The parliament has fixed four-year terms with the election held on the fourth Saturday in March,[2] though the Governor may dissolve the house sooner on the advice of the Premier.

Redistribution

The 2015 and 2019 elections were conducted using boundaries set in 2013. The state constitution requires the Electoral Commission to review electoral district boundaries after every two elections, to ensure that the number of voters in each district is within 10 per cent of the "quotient" – the number of voters divided by the number of Legislative Assembly seats. In 2020, the Commission began work on determining new boundaries for the 2023 election, a process commonly known as "redistribution". The projected population quotient in 2023 was 59,244, meaning that each district needed to have between 53,319 and 65,168 enrolled electors.[3]

Proposed Redistribution (November 2020)

In November 2020, the proposed redistribution names and boundaries was released to the public for submission. All proposed abolished, created or renamed districts are within Sydney.

The Labor-held district of Lakemba is proposed to be abolished and largely replaced by the adjacent Bankstown. A new district of Leppington in south-west Sydney is proposed to be created from Camden and Macquarie Fields.[3]

A number of Liberal-held districts are proposed to be renamed, to reflect the population centre in the district’s proposed boundaries:[3]

The Liberal-held Heathcote is proposed to take in parts of the Illawarra from the Labor-held Keira and become a notionally marginal Labor seat.[4]

Registered parties
Main article: List of political parties in Australia

17 parties are registered with the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).[5]

Polling

Voting intention

Polling that is conducted under the Newspoll brand and published in The Australian is via random online selection by polling firm YouGov. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±2.8 percentage points.

Legislative Assembly polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
LIB NAT ALP GRN SFF ONP OTH L/NP ALP
29 June 2019 Jodi McKay becomes Labor leader and leader of the opposition
23 March 2019 election 32.0% 9.6% 33.3% 9.6% 3.5% 1.1% 11.0% 52.0% 48.0%
22 March 2019 Newspoll 41%* 35% 10% – – 14% 51% 49%[6]
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here

Preferred Premier and satisfaction
Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
Date Firm Better Premier Berejiklian McKay
Berejiklian McKay Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
21–23 October 2020 Ipsos[7][8] 58% 19% 64% 16% 22% 25%
16–17 October 2020 YouGov[9] not asked 68% 26% not asked
24–28 June 2020 Newspoll[10] not asked 68% 26% not asked
21–26 April 2020 Newspoll[11] not asked 69% 23% not asked
29 June 2019 McKay replaces Daley Berejiklian Daley Berejiklian Daley
23 March 2019 Election – – – – – –
22 March 2019 Newspoll 43% 35% 43% 42% 32% 49%
19 March 2019 YouGov–Galaxy[12] 38% 36% not asked
10 March 2019 Newspoll[13] 41% 34% 44% 38% 37% 38%
10 March 2019 UComms–ReachTEL[14][15] 46.7% 53.3% not asked
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here

References
  1. Stuart, Riley; Mayers, Lily (10 September 2020). "Koala bill causes NSW Government crisis as Gladys Berejiklian warns John Barilaro Nationals ministers will be booted from cabinet". Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC News). Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  2. "So when is the next election?". Aph.gov.au. 1 September 2016. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
  3. "Report of the Electoral Districts Redistribution Panel on the draft determination of the names and boundaries of electoral districts of New South Wales" (PDF). New South Wales Electoral Commission. November 2020. Retrieved 10 November 2020.
  4. "Senior MP faces fight". ABC News. 10 November 2020. Retrieved 10 November 2020.
  5. "State Register of Parties". New South Wales Electoral Commission.
  6. Preference allocation based on previous election.
  7. "NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian still has support of majority of voters despite revelation: Exclusive poll". 9News.com.au. Nine News. 25 October 2020. Retrieved 26 October 2020.
  8. "Berejiklian's approval rating high but her reputation has taken a hit". The Sydney Morning Herald. The Sydney Morning Herald. 25 October 2020. Retrieved 26 October 2020.
  9. "Berejiklian's approval rating high but her reputation has taken a hit". The Daily Telegraph. The Daily Telegraph. 18 October 2020. Retrieved 12 November 2020.
  10. "Andrews' halo slips: Newspoll". The Australian. The Australian. 30 June 2020.
  11. Benson, Simon (28 April 2020). "Premiers riding a wave of popularity". The Australian. News Corp Australia.
  12. "Sydney news: Poll reveals NSW election remains deadlocked, police make fresh murder appeal". Retrieved 20 March 2019.
  13. "NSW election set to be close". Retrieved 11 March 2019.
  14. Tovey, Josephine (2019-02-17). "Essential poll shows one in four NSW voters opting for minor parties". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2019-02-18.
  15. Smith, Alexandra (9 March 2019). "Sentiment may seem clear but NSW is still the Coalition's to lose". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 10 March 2019.
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