2022 Victorian state election

The next Victorian state election is scheduled to be held on 26 November 2022 to elect the 60th Parliament of Victoria. All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly (lower house) and all 40 seats in the Legislative Council (upper house) will be up for election, presuming there are no new electorates added in a redistribution.

2022 Victorian state election
26 November 2022
All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly
All 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council
45 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Daniel Andrews Michael O'Brien Samantha Ratnam
Party Labor Liberal/National coalition Greens
Leader since 3 December 2010 6 December 2018 12 October 2017
Leader's seat Mulgrave Malvern MLC for Northern
Metropolitan
Last election 55 seats 27 seats 3 seats
Current seats 55 seats 27 seats 3 seats
Seats needed 18 42
Incumbent Premier

Daniel Andrews
Labor

Background

2018 election

The second-term incumbent Labor government, currently led by Premier Daniel Andrews, won a decisive victory at the 2018 state election, taking 55 seats–Victorian Labor's third-best seat count ever.

The Labor government will attempt to win a third four-year term, something only John Cain Jr and Steve Bracks have previously achieved. They will be challenged by the Liberal/National Coalition opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Michael O'Brien and Peter Walsh. Also expected to contest the election is minor party the Greens, currently led by Samantha Ratnam.

Electoral system

Victoria has compulsory voting and uses instant-runoff voting in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly, and single transferable vote in multi-member seats for the proportionally represented Legislative Council. The Legislative Council presently has 40 members serving four-year terms, elected from eight electoral regions each with five members. With each region electing 5 members, the quota in each region for election, after distribution of preferences, is 16.7% (one-sixth). The election will be conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC).

Redistribution

The Electoral Boundaries Commission must conduct a redistribution if there has been two general elections since the last redistribution. With the last redistribution occurring prior to the 2014 election, a new one will be concluded in 2021, prior to the 2022 election. According to commentators, Victoria's "booming population" will see new districts created in outer-suburban and inner-city areas, at the expense of middle-suburban areas.[1] At the 2018 election the voter enrollment in individual districts ranged from 61,814 in Cranbourne[2] to 38,937 in Mount Waverley.[3]

Date

Pursuant to the Electoral Act 2002, Victoria has had fixed terms, with all elections since the 2006 election held every four years on the last Saturday of November. This means that the date for the next election is currently set at 26 November 2022. This would change only if Parliament were dissolved unexpectedly beforehand.[4][5]

Registered parties
See also: List of political parties in Australia

As of 19 June 2020, there were 15 parties registered with the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC):[6]

Polling

Voting intention

Polling that is conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±2.8 percentage points.

Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
ALP LIB NAT GRN OTH ALP L/NP
9–10 November 2020 Roy Morgan[7] 45% 30.5% 4% 11% 9.5% 58.5% 41.5%
29 Oct–4 Nov 2020 YouGov[8] 44% 40% 11% 5% 55% 45%
12–13 October 2020 Roy Morgan[9] 40% 36% 4% 9% 6% 51.5% 48.5%
28–29 September 2020 Roy Morgan[10] 39% 37% 2.5% 10% 6% 51.5% 48.5%
15–17 September 2020 Roy Morgan[11] 37% 35% 3.5% 12% 8.5% 51.5% 48.5%
6 December 2018 Michael O'Brien becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
24 November 2018 Election 42.9% 30.4% 4.8% 10.7% 11.2% 57.3% 42.7%
23 November 2018 Newspoll[12] 41% 40% 11% 8% 53.5% 46.5%
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here

Preferred Premier and satisfaction
Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
Date Firm Better Premier Andrews O'Brien
Andrews O'Brien Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
11–16 November 2020 Essential[13] not asked 65% 28% not asked
9–10 November 2020 Roy Morgan[7] not asked 71% 29% not asked
29 Oct–4 Nov 2020 YouGov[8] not asked 65% 32% 26% 53%
19–21 October 2020 Ipsos[14] 53% 18% 52% 33% 15% 39%
14–19 October 2020 Essential[15] not asked 54% 40% not asked
12–13 October 2020 Roy Morgan[16] not asked 59% 41% not asked
29–30 September 2020 Roy Morgan[17] not asked 61% 39% not asked
16–19 September 2020 Newspoll[18] not asked 62% 35% not asked
8–9 September 2020 Roy Morgan[19] not asked 70% 30% not asked
15–18 July 2020 Newspoll[20] not asked 57% 37% not asked
24–28 June 2020 Newspoll[21] not asked 67% 27% not asked
21–26 April 2020 Newspoll[22] not asked 75% 17% not asked
6 December 2018 O'Brien replaces Guy Andrews Guy Andrews Guy
24 November 2018 Election – – – – – –
24–28 October 2018 Newspoll[23] 45% 29% 45% 40% 31% 46%
22–24 October 2018 YouGov not asked 44% 35% 24% 42%
7 October 2018 ReachTEL[24] 51.3% 48.7% not asked
11–13 September 2018 YouGov[25] not asked 40% 42% 25% 44%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here

References
  1. https://insidestory.org.au/final-reckoning-nine-views-of-victorias-election/
  2. "State Election 2018: Cranbourne District results summary - Victorian Electoral Commission". www.vec.vic.gov.au. Retrieved 25 December 2018.
  3. "State Election 2018: Mount Waverley District results summary - Victorian Electoral Commission". www.vec.vic.gov.au. Retrieved 25 December 2018.
  4. Table Office (24 May 2010). "Information Sheet 16 – A New Electoral System for Victoria's Legislative Council". Department of the Legislative Council. Parliament of Victoria. Retrieved 9 February 2015.
  5. "Fact Sheet G3: Elections" (PDF). Parliament of Victoria. December 2010. Retrieved 9 February 2015.
  6. "Currently registered parties - Victorian Electoral Commission". www.vec.vic.gov.au. Retrieved 19 June 2020.
  7. "Victorian ALP (58.5%) streaks ahead of L-NP (41.5%). Premier Daniel Andrews approval jumps 12% to 71%". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 12 November 2020.
  8. "Majority of Victorians think it's fair to blame Daniel Andrews for the failed hotel quarantine: poll". Herald Sun.
  9. "Victorian ALP still ahead of the L-NP at 51.5% Vs. 48.5%; Premier Andrews' approval down 2% to 59%". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 16 October 2020.
  10. "Victorians now against Stage 4 Covid Restrictions". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 1 October 2020.
  11. "Victorian ALP Government support now 51.5% would win a close election with L-NP on 48.5%". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 20 September 2020.
  12. Ferguson, John (24 November 2018). "Victorian election: Labor on track for poll victory, Newspoll finds". The Australian. Retrieved 24 November 2018.
  13. "The Essential Report: 16 November 2020" (PDF). Essential Research. p. 7. Retrieved 17 November 2020.
  14. Topsfield, Jewel (26 October 2020). "Andrews support strong, but Liberal leader floundering: poll". The Age. Retrieved 26 October 2020.
  15. "The Essential Report – National 19 October 2020". Essential Vision. Retrieved 20 October 2020.
  16. "Victorian ALP still ahead of the L-NP at 51.5% Vs. 48.5%; Premier Andrews' approval down 2% to 59%". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 16 October 2020.
  17. "Victorians now against Stage 4 Covid Restrictions". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 1 October 2020.
  18. "Locked down and living with it: state backs Dan". The Australian. News Corp Australia. 21 September 2020.
  19. "70% of Victorians approve of the way Premier Andrews is handling his job, but 76% say the Victorian Government should compensate small business". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 12 September 2020.
  20. "Andrews caught in voters' crossfire". The Australian. News Corp Australia. 21 July 2020.
  21. "Victorian premier loses support: poll". The Canberra Times. Australian Community Media. 30 June 2020.
  22. Benson, Simon (28 April 2020). "Premiers riding a wave of popularity". The Australian. News Corp Australia.
  23. Ferguson, John. "Newspoll: federal leadership turmoil hits Victorian Liberals' campaign". The Australian.
  24. "ReachTEL Poll: Andrews edges clear of Guy as State Election draws near". The Age. 7 October 2018.
  25. "Two-thirds think Melbourne's population is growing too fast". MacroBusiness. 17 September 2018.
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