2021 Japanese general election
The 49th general election of members of the House of Representatives (Japanese: 第49回衆議院議員総選挙, Hepburn: dai-yonjūkyūkai Shūgiin giin sōsenkyo) is scheduled on or before 22 October 2021, as required by the Constitution of Japan. Voting will take place in all Representatives constituencies of Japan including proportional blocks, in order to appoint Members of Diet to seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet of Japan. As the cabinet has to resign after a general House of Representatives election in the first post-election Diet session (Constitution, Article 70), the lower house election will also lead to a new designation election of the Prime Minister in the Diet, and the appointment of a new cabinet (even if the same ministers are re-appointed).
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All 465 seats to the House of Representatives of Japan 233 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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![]() Parliamentary districts not including proportional blocks | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Election date
Under the post-occupation interpretation of Article 7 of the Constitution, the cabinet may instruct the Emperor to dissolve the House of Representatives before the end of term at will. Elections must be held within 40 days after dissolution.
The only time in postwar history that the House of Representatives was not dissolved before the end of its term was in 1976. If the House of Representatives completes a full four-year term, the election must be held within 30 days before that.[1]
With the sudden resignation of Shinzo Abe from his position as prime minister due to health issues, it is a strong possibility that a snap election will be held before the end of the full term.[2]
Current composition
In-House Groups [innai] kaiha |
Parties | Representatives | |
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Liberal Democratic Party / Association of Independents Jiyūminshutō / Mushozoku no Kai | LDP, Independents | 282 | |
Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan / Independent's Forum Rikken-minshu・Mushozoku Fōramu | CDP, Independents | 113 | |
Komeito Kōmeitō | Kōmeitō | 29 | |
Japanese Communist Party Nihon Kyōsantō | JCP | 12 | |
Nippon Ishin / Independents Nippon Ishin no Kai | Ishin, Independent | 11 | |
Democratic Party for the People / Independent's Club Kokumin-minshutō・Mushozoku Kurabu | DPFP, Independents | 10 | |
Independents Members not affiliated with a parliamentary group/non-inscrits | LDP (Speaker), CDP (Vice-Speaker), N-Koku, independents | 7 | |
Vacant Vacant seats | 1 | ||
Total | 465 | ||
Opinion polls
The charts below depicts opinion polling for the next Japanese general election using a 15-poll moving average, with the second being a close up of the smaller polling parties.
![](../I/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Japanese_general_election.png.webp)
![](../I/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Japanese_general_election(minor_parties).png.webp)
Notes
- The current Constitutional Democratic Party is a new party founded in September 2020 following a merger between the CDP, a majority of the former Democratic Party for the People and some independent Diet members. The new party voted to retain the CDP name as well as Edano as leader.
- The Democratic Party merged with Kibō no Tō in May 2018, forming the Democratic Party for the People. The majority of the DPFP later merged with the Constitutional Democratic Party in September 2020, however 14 members refused to merge and instead formed a new party retaining the DPFP name and branding.
- The party only runs candidates in Osaka Prefecture, and as such is unable to obtain enough seats for a majority alone.
References
- "公職選挙法". Archived from the original on 2016-07-29. Retrieved 2017-10-26.
- "Ailing Abe quits as Japan PM as COVID-19 slams economy, key goals unmet". Reuters. 2020-08-28.
- House of Representatives: Strength of the In-House Groups in the House of Representatives