2021 Japanese general election

The 49th general election of members of the House of Representatives (Japanese: 第49回衆議院議員総選挙, Hepburn: dai-yonjūkyūkai Shūgiin giin sōsenkyo) is scheduled on or before 22 October 2021, as required by the Constitution of Japan. Voting will take place in all Representatives constituencies of Japan including proportional blocks, in order to appoint Members of Diet to seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet of Japan. As the cabinet has to resign after a general House of Representatives election in the first post-election Diet session (Constitution, Article 70), the lower house election will also lead to a new designation election of the Prime Minister in the Diet, and the appointment of a new cabinet (even if the same ministers are re-appointed).

2021 Japanese general election
On or before 22 October 2021
All 465 seats to the House of Representatives of Japan
233 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Yoshihide Suga Yukio Edano Natsuo Yamaguchi
Party Liberal Democratic Constitutional Democratic Komeito
Leader since 14 September 2020 11 September 2020 [lower-alpha 1] 8 September 2009
Leader's seat Kanagawa-2nd Saitama-5th Not contesting
(Councillor)
Last election 284 seats, 33.28% 55 seats, 19.88% 29 seats, 12.51%
Current seats 282 109 29
Seats needed 124 204
 
Leader Kazuo Shii Ichirō Matsui
Toranosuke Katayama		 Yuichiro Tamaki
Party Communist Innovation Democratic for the People
Leader since 24 November 2000 2 November 2015 18 December 2020
Leader's seat Minami-Kantō PR Not contesting
(Mayor of Osaka)		 Kagawa-2nd
Last election 12 seats, 7.90% 11 seats, 6.07% New party[lower-alpha 2]
Current seats 12 10 7
Seats needed 221 N/A[lower-alpha 3] 226
 
Leader Mizuho Fukushima
Party Social Democratic
Leader since 22 February 2020
Leader's seat Not contesting
(Councillor)
Last election 2 seats, 1.69%
Current seats 1
Seats needed 232
Parliamentary districts not including proportional blocks
Incumbent Prime Minister

Yoshihide Suga
Liberal Democratic

Election date

Under the post-occupation interpretation of Article 7 of the Constitution, the cabinet may instruct the Emperor to dissolve the House of Representatives before the end of term at will. Elections must be held within 40 days after dissolution.

The only time in postwar history that the House of Representatives was not dissolved before the end of its term was in 1976. If the House of Representatives completes a full four-year term, the election must be held within 30 days before that.[1]

With the sudden resignation of Shinzo Abe from his position as prime minister due to health issues, it is a strong possibility that a snap election will be held before the end of the full term.[2]

Current composition
Composition of the House of Representatives of Japan (as of 15 January 2021, 204th National Diet)[3]
In-House Groups
[innai] kaiha		 Parties Representatives
Liberal Democratic Party / Association of Independents
Jiyūminshutō / Mushozoku no Kai
LDP, Independents 282
Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan / Independent's Forum
Rikken-minshu・Mushozoku Fōramu
CDP, Independents 113
Komeito
Kōmeitō		Kōmeitō 29
Japanese Communist Party
Nihon Kyōsantō		JCP 12
Nippon Ishin / Independents
Nippon Ishin no Kai		Ishin, Independent 11
  Democratic Party for the People / Independent's Club
Kokumin-minshutō・Mushozoku Kurabu 		DPFP, Independents 10
Independents
Members not affiliated with a parliamentary group/non-inscrits		LDP (Speaker), CDP (Vice-Speaker), N-Koku, independents 7
Vacant
Vacant seats		 1
Total 465

Opinion polls
Main article: Opinion polling for the next Japanese general election

The charts below depicts opinion polling for the next Japanese general election using a 15-poll moving average, with the second being a close up of the smaller polling parties.

  LDP
  CDP
  DP
  DPP
  Kibō no Tō
  Komeito
  JCP
  Nippon Ishin no Kai
  SDP
  LP
  Reiwa Shinsengumi
  N-Koku
  CDP
  DP
  DPP
  Kibō no Tō
  Komeito
  JCP
  Nippon Ishin no Kai
  SDP
  LP
  Reiwa Shinsengumi
  N-Koku

See also

Notes
  1. The current Constitutional Democratic Party is a new party founded in September 2020 following a merger between the CDP, a majority of the former Democratic Party for the People and some independent Diet members. The new party voted to retain the CDP name as well as Edano as leader.
  2. The Democratic Party merged with Kibō no Tō in May 2018, forming the Democratic Party for the People. The majority of the DPFP later merged with the Constitutional Democratic Party in September 2020, however 14 members refused to merge and instead formed a new party retaining the DPFP name and branding.
  3. The party only runs candidates in Osaka Prefecture, and as such is unable to obtain enough seats for a majority alone.

References
  1. "公職選挙法". Archived from the original on 2016-07-29. Retrieved 2017-10-26.
  2. "Ailing Abe quits as Japan PM as COVID-19 slams economy, key goals unmet". Reuters. 2020-08-28.
  3. House of Representatives: Strength of the In-House Groups in the House of Representatives
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