Arnon Mishkin

Mishkin got his start in political polling working in New York under political consultant David Garth. Garth's team first worked for the Democratic Party (the party to which Mishkin is a registered member)[6] to successfully elect Ed Koch to become the Mayor of New York City.[4] The team also worked for Tom Bradley, then Democratic Mayor of Los Angeles in his campaign to become Governor of California in the 1982 California gubernatorial election and the 1986 California gubernatorial election.[4] Bradley's lack of success in the campaign when compared to polling predictions was attributed by the Garth-Mishkin team to what is now known as the "Bradley effect" — the theory that some White American voters when asked by pollsters if they would be voting for the Black American candidate would answer in the affirmative, to avoid social ostracism, but then privately vote the opposite way, skewing the accuracy of polling numbers.[4] Other electoral campaigns worked on by the Garth-Mishkin team during this time included John Lindsay, Ella Grasso, Brendan Byrne and Mike Bloomberg.

Aside from his work for political candidates, Mishkin also worked in news media, starting at NBC News as a general editor in the 1980s, before moving on the Fox Corporation in 1998.[4] At the same time he continued to work for the Boston Consulting Group, which advised Forbes and the Associated Press on internet marketing and strategy as the information age became to gather momentum.[4] The 2000 United States presidential election which eventually saw the election of George W. Bush was controversial, with Florida undecided on the night; it eventually went to the Supreme Court with Bush v. Gore. On the night of the election, John Prescott Ellis, Bush's cousin, headed up the Fox News Decision Desk, but subsequently stood down in the aftermath and was repaced by Mishkin who had worked as part of his team.[4]

Mishkin, kept his role low profile until an on-air controversy during the 2012 United States presidential election.[4] The controversy over the Fox News Decision Desk calling the closely contested state of Ohio early for Obama, played out on air as the commentator Karl Rove objected and anchor Megyn Kelly walked off set to Mishkin's operation room, confronting him on the confidence of his call, to which Mishkin confirmed "99.95 percent".[4] Eric Bolling, former Fox Business host, claimed that Mishkin and his team were highly dismissive of Donald Trump's chances to beat Hillary Clinton during the 2016 United States presidential election, though Mishkin himself has disputed this.[4] During the election itself, Mishkin cast his vote for Hillary Clinton as a supporter of the Democratic Party.[7][8]

Arnon Mishkin maintained his position at the head of the team running the Fox News Decision Desk for the 2020 United States presidential election, the team responsible for telling Fox News viewers the results of the elections.[4] As the main American network which caters towards a Republican Party supporting audience, the Fox News Decision Desk and Mishkin received some attention in the run-up to the election.[4][9][10][8] The New York Times published an article about Mishkin a month before the election entitled "Trump Wants to Discredit the Election. This Nerd Could Stop Him."[4] In the lead up to the election, Mishkin and Dana Blanton were the main voices at Fox News doubting the chances of Trump being re-elected to the Presidency in his contest with Joe Biden.[4] The two were involved in creating the new VoteCast alternative to exit polls, alongside the Associated Press.[4] Mishkin's model has been supported by other pollsters such as Ariel Edwards-Levy of HuffPost.[4]

On election night in November 2020, Mishkin's team called Arizona for Biden before any other major news outlet.[11][12][13] Bret Baier, a Fox host for the election, questioned the call on air and pushed Mishkin to declare that he was 100% certain, to which Mishkin answered in the affirmative and had been considering announcing it for 30 minutes.[12][14] The call was disputed by President Trump, who was reported by news outlets to be "furious" and in his speech to the nation the following morning, where he refused to concede a number of states and the election in general, specifically mentioned Fox News and Arizona, dismissing "the gentleman who called it".[12]