Next Castilian-Manchegan regional election

The next Castilian-Manchegan regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 11th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha. All 33 seats in the Cortes will be up for election.

Next Castilian-Manchegan regional election
On or before 28 May 2023
All 33 seats in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha
17 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Emiliano García-Page Francisco Núñez Carmen Picazo
Party PSOE PP Cs
Leader since 26 February 2012 7 October 2018 9 March 2019
Leader's seat Toledo Albacete Albacete
Last election 19 seats, 44.1% 10 seats, 28.5% 4 seats, 11.4%
Current seats 19 10 4
Seats needed In majority 7 13
Incumbent President

Emiliano García-Page
PSOE

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha are the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Manchegan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Voting for the Cortes is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in Castilla–La Mancha and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Castilian-Manchegan people abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] The 33 members of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Guadalajara and Toledo, with each being allocated an initial minimum of three seats and the remaining 18 being distributed in proportion to their populations.[1][3]

The use of the D'Hondt method may result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[4]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha expires four years after the date of their previous election. Elections to the Cortes are fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, setting the election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 28 May 2023.[1][3][5]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remains of their four-year terms. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats is to be deemed automatically elected.[1]

Parliamentary status

The table below shows the status of the different parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the present time.[6]

Current parliamentary composition[7]
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 19 19
People's Parliamentary Group PP 10 10
Citizens's Parliamentary Group Cs 4 4

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][5]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov.
Votes (%) Seats
PSOE Emiliano García-Page Social democracy 44.10% 19 Y
PP Francisco Núñez Conservatism
Christian democracy		 28.53% 10 N
Cs Carmen Picazo Liberalism 11.38% 4 N
Vox Daniel Arias Vegas Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism		 7.02% 0 N
Podemos–
IU–Equo		 TBD Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism		 6.92% 0 N

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 17 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 1] 15 Jul 2020 850 ? 38.6
16		 33.5
14		 7.7
0		 10.2
2		 8.1
1		 5.1
PSOE[p 2][p 3] 29 Jun–10 Jul 2020 2,500 ? 42.3
18		 31.5
11/12		 7.6
1/2		 ?
1/2		 6.4
0		 10.8
SyM Consulting[p 4][p 5] 20–22 May 2020 3,209 68.3 37.5
13/16		 29.6
9/13		 5.9
0		 16.5
6		 8.4
1/3		 7.9
NC Report/La Razón[p 6] 17–21 May 2020 1,858 ? 40.3
16		 33.7
14		 6.5
0		 11.2
3		 6.4
0		 6.6
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 7][p 8] 1 Apr–15 May 2020 ? ? 40.4
18		 36.2
14		 5.8
0		 7.9
1		 8.0
0		 4.2
Numeral 8/La Tribuna[p 9] 20–24 Jan 2020 1,050 ? 43.4
18		 29.9
11		 9.1
3		 8.6
1		 7.6
0		 13.5
PSOE[p 10][p 11] 3 Dec 2019 ? ? ?
18/20		 ?
8/9		 ?
2/3		 ?
3/4		 ?
0		 ?
November 2019 general election 10 Nov 2019 N/A 70.6 33.1
13		 26.9
10		 6.8
0		 21.9
9		 9.2
1		 6.2
2019 regional election 26 May 2019 N/A 69.4 44.1
19		 28.5
10		 11.4
4		 7.0
0		 6.9
0		 15.6

References
Opinion poll sources
  1. "EP Autonómico (15Jul): En C-LM, Page baja y necesitaría a UP para seguir gobernando. Sube Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 July 2020.
  2. "EL PSOE mantendría la mayoría absoluta en CLM". La Tribuna de Ciudad Real (in Spanish). 28 July 2020.
  3. "García-Page mantendría la mayoría absoluta según una encuesta interna del PSOE". Voces de Cuenca (in Spanish). 28 July 2020.
  4. "Estimación Mayo 2020. Castilla-La Mancha. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 30 May 2020.
  5. "CASTILLA-LA MANCHA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 30/05/2020: UNIDAS PODEMOS 8,4% (1/3), PSOE 37,5% (13/16), Cs 5,9%, PP 29,6% (9/13), VOX 16,5% (6)". Electograph (in Spanish). 30 May 2020.
  6. "El aviso de Page se cumple: el pacto con Bildu resta al PSOE". La Razón (in Spanish). 31 May 2020.
  7. "EP (17My): Castilla-La Mancha – Page retiene la absoluta. Ciudadanos, fuera del Parlamento". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  8. "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  9. "Page resiste en la región y mantiene la mayoría absoluta". La Tribuna de Toledo (in Spanish). 3 February 2020.
  10. "Encuesta del PSOE CLM: Page sube y la bajada de PP y Cs metería a Vox en las Cortes". El Digital Castilla-La Mancha (in Spanish). 3 December 2019.
  11. "Page repetiría y la extrema derecha entraría por primera vez en las Cortes si las elecciones se celebraran hoy". Periódico CLM (in Spanish). 3 December 2019.
Other
  1. "Ley Orgánica 9/1982, de 10 de agosto, de Estatuto de Autonomía de Castilla-La Mancha". Organic Law No. 9 of 10 August 1982. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 September 2017.
  2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. "Ley 5/1986, de 23 de diciembre, electoral de Castilla-La Mancha". Law No. 5 of 23 December 1986. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 September 2017.
  4. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  5. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  6. "Elecciones a las Cortes de Castilla - La Mancha (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 August 2019.
  7. "Composition. 10th Legislature". www.cortesclm.es (in Spanish). Cortes de Castilla-La Mancha. Retrieved 23 July 2020.
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