Next Murcian regional election

The next Murcian regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 11th Regional Assembly of the autonomous community of the Region of Murcia. All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly will be up for election.

Next Murcian regional election
On or before 28 May 2023
All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly of Murcia
23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Diego Conesa Fernando López Miras Isabel Franco
Party PSOE PP Cs
Leader since 30 September 2017 3 May 2017 9 March 2019
Last election 17 seats, 32.5% 16 seats, 32.4% 6 seats, 12.0%
Current seats 17 16 6
Seats needed 6 7 17
 
Leader Pascual Salvador TBD
Party Vox Podemos
Leader since 21 April 2019 27 September 2019
Last election 4 seats, 9.5% 2 seats, 5.6%
Current seats 4 2
Seats needed 19 21
Incumbent President

Fernando López Miras
PP

Overview

Electoral system

The Regional Assembly of Murcia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Murcia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Murcian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Voting for the Regional Assembly is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Region of Murcia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Murcians abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] The 45 members of the Regional Assembly of Murcia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied regionally. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution.[3]

Election date

The term of the Regional Assembly of Murcia expires four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Regional Assembly are fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, setting the election date for the Regional Assembly on Sunday, 23 May 2023.[1][3][4]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Regional Assembly of Murcia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Regional Assembly shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remains of their four-year terms.[1]

Parliamentary status

The table below shows the status of the different parliamentary groups in the Regional Assembly at the present time.[5]

Current parliamentary composition
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 17 17
People's Parliamentary Group PP 16 16
Citizens Parliamentary Group Cs 6 6
Vox Parliamentary Group Vox 4 4
Mixed Parliamentary Group Podemos 2 2

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electorate in the Region of Murcia, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov.
Votes (%) Seats
PSOE Diego Conesa Social democracy 32.47% 17 N
PP Fernando López Miras Conservatism
Christian democracy		 32.35% 16 Y
Cs Isabel Franco Liberalism 11.99% 6 Y
Vox Pascual Salvador Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism		 9.47% 4 N
Podemos TBD Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism		 5.57% 2 N

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 23 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout MCC Lead
UCAM[p 1] 9–23 Dec 2020 809 59.2 30.5
15		 34.1
17		 7.6
3		 13.4
7		 [lower-alpha 1] – – [lower-alpha 1] 6.9
3		 – 3.6
CEMOP[p 2] 14–22 Dec 2020 824 64.4 27.6
14		 38.7
19		 7.2
3		 15.6
7		 [lower-alpha 1] – – [lower-alpha 1] 5.1
2		 – 10.1
SyM Consulting[p 3] 16–18 Oct 2020 1,131 61.3 29.1
15		 34.1
17/18		 3.4
1		 20.3
10		 3.7
1/2		 2.6
0		 2.7
0		 1.6
0		 – – 5.0
CEMOP[p 4] 2–15 Oct 2020 825 64.9 27.3
13		 39.3
20		 6.8
3		 15.7
7		 [lower-alpha 1] – – [lower-alpha 1] 4.9
2		 – 12.0
Murcia Electoral[p 5][p 6] 29 Jul–5 Aug 2020 1,841 ? 31.4
16		 33.9
17		 9.6
5		 10.9
5		 5.1
2		 2.3
0		 2.2
0		 0.4
0		 – 1.9
0		 2.5
Murcia Electoral[p 7][p 8] 2–9 Jun 2020 1,721 ? 29.6
15		 34.1
18		 9.2
4		 11.8
6		 5.7
2		 2.2
0		 2.5
0		 0.3
0		 – 2.2
0		 4.5
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 9][p 10] 1 Apr–15 May 2020 ? ? 33.6
16		 38.5
19		 6.5
3		 11.4
5		 4.3
2		 1.7
0		 1.7
0		 0.9
0		 – – 4.9
CEMOP[p 11] 20–29 Apr 2020 804 64.2 31.0
15		 38.8
19		 7.9
3/4		 11.8
5/6		 [lower-alpha 1] – – [lower-alpha 1] 5.5
2		 – 7.8
SyM Consulting[p 12] 30–31 Mar 2020 1,089 60.6 30.6
15/16		 33.8
17		 8.7
4		 14.8
7		 3.4
1/2		 2.6
0		 2.3
0		 1.5
0		 – – 3.2
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 13] 6–8 Dec 2019 ? ? 26.0
12/15		 25.4
12/14		 7.8
3/4		 24.3
11/14		 6.6
2/3		 2.9
0/1		 2.8
0/1		 1.7
0		 – 1.0
0		 0.6
November 2019 general election 10 Nov 2019 N/A 68.0 24.8
12		 26.5
13		 7.4
3		 28.0
13		 [lower-alpha 1] – 0.3
0		 [lower-alpha 1] 8.9
4		 1.9
0		 1.5
Sigma Dos/La Verdad[p 14][p 15] 9–10 Jul 2019 600 ? 35.4
18		 31.2
15		 9.6
4		 11.9
6		 5.3
2		 – – – – – 4.2
2019 regional election 26 May 2019 N/A 62.3 32.5
17		 32.4
16		 12.0
6		 9.5
4		 5.6
2		 2.2
0		 2.0
0		 2.0
0		 – – 0.1

Notes
  1. Within Unidas Podemos.

References
Opinion poll sources
  1. "El PP podría mantenerse en el Gobierno regional pero solo apoyado o en coalición con Vox, según un barómetro de la UCAM". Europa Press (in Spanish). 13 January 2021.
  2. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Barómetro de Invierno 2020" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 25 January 2021.
  3. "Estimación Octubre 2020. Región de Murcia. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 6 November 2020.
  4. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Escenarios Políticos ante la Segunda Ola de la Pandemia. Otoño 2020" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 10 November 2020.
  5. "El PP ganaría la elecciones autonómicas aunque seguiría necesitando a Vox y Ciudadanos para gobernar según el último sondeo de Murcia Electoral". Murcia Actualidad (in Spanish). 17 August 2020.
  6. "Cs volvería a tener la llave para decidir el bloque ganador entre PP y PSOE en la Región". La Opinión de Murcia (in Spanish). 17 August 2020.
  7. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Elecciones Autonómicas. Junio de 2020" (PDF). Murcia Electoral (in Spanish). 10 June 2020.
  8. "El PP sería la primera fuerza en la Región y podría gobernar con VOX". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 10 June 2020.
  9. "EP (17My): R. Murcia – subida de PP y Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  10. "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  11. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Cambios y Permanencias. Primavera 2020" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 10 May 2020.
  12. "Estimación Marzo 2020. Región de Murcia. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 3 April 2020.
  13. "ElectoPanel (Región de Murcia 10Dic): Vox le disputa la hegemonía de la derecha al PP. MC Cartagena y Somos Región, al borde del escaño". Electomanía (in Spanish). 10 December 2019.
  14. "El PSOE ganaría con más ventaja en la Región de Murcia y Vox le daría el 'sorpasso' a Ciudadanos". La Verdad (in Spanish). 15 July 2019.
  15. "Estimación de voto en julio de 2019". La Verdad (in Spanish). 15 July 2019.
Other
  1. "Ley Orgánica 4/1982, de 9 de junio, de Estatuto de Autonomía para la Región de Murcia". Organic Law No. 4 of 9 June 1982. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2017.
  2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. "Ley 2/1987, de 24 de febrero, Electoral de la Región de Murcia". Law No. 2 of 24 February 1987. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2017.
  4. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  5. "Diputadas y Diputados regionales". www.asambleamurcia.es (in Spanish). Regional Assembly of Murcia. Retrieved 13 October 2019.
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