Next Madrilenian regional election

The next Madrilenian regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 12th Assembly of the Community of Madrid. All 132 seats in the Assembly will be up for election.

Next Madrilenian regional election
On or before 28 May 2023
All 132 seats in the Assembly of Madrid
67 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Ángel Gabilondo Isabel Díaz Ayuso Ignacio Aguado
Party PSOE PP Cs
Leader since 21 February 2015 13 January 2019 2 March 2015
Last election 37 seats, 27.3% 30 seats, 22.2% 26 seats, 19.5%
Current seats 37 30 26
Seats needed 30 37 41
 
Leader Mónica García Rocío Monasterio Isabel Serra
Party Más Madrid Vox Podemos–IU
Leader since 10 July 2020 18 April 2019 18 March 2019
Last election 20 seats, 14.7% 12 seats, 8.9% 7 seats, 5.6%
Current seats 20 12 7
Seats needed 47 55 60
Incumbent President

Isabel Díaz Ayuso
PP

Overview

Electoral system

The Assembly of Madrid is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Madrid, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Madrilenian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Voting for the Assembly is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Community of Madrid and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Madrilenians abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] All members of the Assembly of Madrid are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of five percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied regionally. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. The Assembly is entitled to one member per each 50,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 25,000.[1][3]

Election date

The term of the Assembly of Madrid expires four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Assembly are fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, setting the election date for the Assembly on Sunday, 28 May 2023.[1][3][4]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Madrid and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remains of their four-year terms.[1]

Throughout 2020, as a result of both the growing divisions between the two governing coalition partners and the perceived likelihood of a motion of no confidence being tabled by the opposition over Díaz Ayuso's perceived mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Community of Madrid,[5][6] Ayuso considered calling a snap election in the region.[7] A first attempt was reportedly aborted by her party's national leadership in June 2020,[8][9] but in September, it was reported that Ayuso intended for a regional election in Madrid to be held concurrently with the announced Catalan regional election by Catalan president Quim Torra, tentatively scheduled for some point in late 2020 or early 2021.[10][11] Ayuso herself seemed to cast off such rumours through her Twitter account.[12]

Parliamentary status

The table below shows the status of the different parliamentary groups in the Assembly at the present time.[13]

Current parliamentary composition
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 37 37
People's Parliamentary Group PP 30 30
Citizens's Parliamentary Group Cs 26 26
More Madrid Parliamentary Group Más Madrid 20 20
Vox Parliamentary Group in Madrid Vox 12 12
United We Can–United Left–
Stand Up Madrid Parliamentary Group		 Podemos 5 7
IU–M 2

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least 0.5 percent of the electorate in the Community of Madrid, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PSOE Ángel Gabilondo Social democracy 27.31% 37 N
PP Isabel Díaz Ayuso Conservatism
Christian democracy		 22.23% 30 Y
Cs Ignacio Aguado Liberalism 19.46% 26 Y
Más Madrid Mónica García Progressivism
Participatory democracy
Green politics		 14.69% 20 N [14]
Vox Rocío Monasterio Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism		 8.88% 12 N
Podemos–IU Isabel Serra Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism		 5.60% 7 N

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 67 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Madrid.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead
KeyData/Público[p 1] 6 Nov 2020 ? ? 26.6
36		 28.8
39		 11.6
15		 13.2
18		 12.5
17		 5.5
7		 2.2
SocioMétrica/El Español[p 2] 15–17 Oct 2020 1,310 ? 25.9
35		 26.8
36		 12.3
16		 13.1
18		 14.8
20		 5.2
7		 0.9
Hamalgama Métrica/OKDiario[p 3] 9–12 Oct 2020 1,000 60.8 26.5
36		 32.8
45		 10.3
14		 12.4
16		 10.2
14		 5.6
7		 6.3
NC Report/La Razón[p 4][p 5] 5–10 Oct 2020 1,000 58.6 26.9
37		 33.1
45		 12.3
16		 12.1
16		 8.7
11		 5.4
7		 6.2
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 6] 1–9 Oct 2020 650 ? 28.5
39		 33.7
46		 9.2
12		 12.7
17		 9.1
12		 5.1
6		 5.2
DYM/20 minutos[p 7][p 8] 5–7 Oct 2020 ? ? 28.5
38/39		 24.3
33		 13.9
18/19		 14.0
19		 12.7
17		 5.1
6		 4.2
SyM Consulting[p 9][p 10] 2–4 Oct 2020 1,319 71.0 25.0
34		 27.7
37/38		 9.1
12		 14.2
19		 16.2
22		 5.8
7/8		 2.7
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 11] 2 Oct 2020 2,120 ? 28.4
39		 33.4
45		 10.0
13		 10.8
14		 9.8
13		 6.5
8		 5.0
NC Report/La Razón[p 12] 8–12 Sep 2020 1,000 59.2 27.4
37		 28.4
39		 14.0
19		 13.0
17		 9.4
12		 5.9
8		 1.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 11] 31 Aug 2020 ? ? 28.6
39		 30.9
42		 11.3
15		 9.5
13		 10.9
14		 7.2
9		 2.3
Sigma Dos/Telemadrid[p 13][p 14] 19–22 Jun 2020 1,600 ? 29.5
40		 31.9
43		 10.8
14		 10.3
14		 8.4
11		 7.8
10		 2.4
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 15][p 16] 1 Apr–15 May 2020 ? ? 28.5
39		 32.3
44		 10.2
13		 6.5
8		 10.2
14		 10.5
14		 3.8
Hamalgama Métrica/OKDiario[p 17][p 18] 8–11 May 2020 1,000 ? 27.4
37		 29.9
40		 13.9
19		 10.8
14		 9.8
13		 6.6
9		 2.5
GAD3/ABC[p 19][p 20] 24–29 Apr 2020 1,006 ? 27.9
38		 41.1
57		 7.6
10		 6.6
9		 7.7
10		 6.4
8		 13.2
SyM Consulting[p 21] 20–23 Apr 2020 1,236 74.4 24.7
33		 27.3
36		 12.3
16		 8.9
11/12		 14.9
19/20		 10.0
13		 2.6
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 22] 26–31 Mar 2020 800 ? 30.3
43		 26.0
37		 11.3
16		 4.3
0		 11.8
16		 14.4
20		 4.3
November 2019 general election 10 Nov 2019 N/A 70.6 26.9
37		 24.9
34		 9.1
12		 5.7
7		 18.3
25		 13.0
17		 2.0
Celeste-Tel[p 23] 22–26 Jul 2019 1,000 65.0 28.3
40		 23.7
34		 20.1
28		 14.1
20		 7.6
10		 4.8
0		 4.6
NC Report/La Razón[p 24][p 25] 9–13 Jul 2019 900 60.7 27.8
38		 26.0
35		 17.7
24		 14.2
19		 7.1
9		 5.1
7		 1.8
2019 regional election 26 May 2019 N/A 64.3 27.3
37		 22.2
30		 19.4
26		 14.7
20		 8.9
12		 5.6
7		 5.1

References
Opinion poll sources
  1. "Ayuso ganaría las elecciones en la Comunidad de Madrid pero no podría prescindir de Aguado ni de Vox". Público (in Spanish). 7 November 2020.
  2. "Ayuso y Vox crecen a costa de Cs pero Aguado seguirá teniendo la llave de la Comunidad de Madrid". El Español (in Spanish). 19 October 2020.
  3. "El acoso de Sánchez dispara a Ayuso, que ganaría con 15 escaños más, mientras el PSOE se deja uno". OKDiario (in Spanish). 13 October 2020.
  4. "La batalla con Sánchez dispara a Ayuso". La Razón (in Spanish). 12 October 2020.
  5. "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID · Encuesta NC Report 12/10/2020: UNIDAS PODEMOS-IU 5,4% (7), MÁS MADRID 12,1% (16), PSOE 26,9% (37), Cs 12,3% (16), PP 33,1% (45), VOX 8,7% (11)". Electograph (in Spanish). 12 October 2020.
  6. "CAMPanel (9oct): la intervención de Madrid perjudica más a Aguado que a Ayuso, que sale reforzada políticamente". Electomanía (in Spanish). 2 October 2020.
  7. "Ayuso sube y podría gobernar de nuevo con los apoyos de Vox y Ciudadanos". 20 minutos (in Spanish). 9 October 2020.
  8. "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta DYM 09/10/2020: UP-IU 5,1% (6), MÁS MADRID 14,0% (19), PSOE 28,5% (38/39), Cs 13,9% (18/19), PP 24,3% (33), VOX 12,7% (17)". Electograph (in Spanish). 9 October 2020.
  9. "Estimación Septiembre 2020. Comunidad de Madrid. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 27 April 2020.
  10. "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID · Encuesta SyM Consulting 07/10/2020: UP-IU 5,8% (7/8), MÁS MADRID 14,1% (19), PSOE 25,0% (34), Cs 9,1% (12), PP 27,7% (37/38), VOX 16,2% (22)". Electograph (in Spanish). 8 October 2020.
  11. "CAMPanel (2Oct): la polémica en torno a las restricciones por COVID impulsan a Ayuso, que sube 2,5p en un mes". Electomanía (in Spanish). 2 October 2020.
  12. "Díaz Ayuso ganaría hoy las elecciones en Madrid con dos diputados más que el PSOE". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 September 2020.
  13. "Ayuso ganaría las elecciones en Madrid, pero sigue necesitando a Ciudadanos y Vox para gobernar". Telemadrid (in Spanish). 24 June 2020.
  14. "Ayuso ganaría hoy las elecciones en Madrid, pero seguiría necesitando a Cs y a Vox para gobernar". El Mundo (in Spanish). 24 June 2020.
  15. "EP (17My): Com. Madrid – Ayuso 'lo peta' y podría gobernar con Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  16. "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  17. "La campaña antiAyuso gripa: ganaría hoy las elecciones con 10 escaños más y seguiría de presidenta". OKDiario (in Spanish). 13 May 2020.
  18. "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta Hamalgama Métrica 13/05/2020: UP-IU 6,6% (9), MÁS MADRID 10,8% (14), PSOE 27,4% (37), Cs 13,9% (19), PP 29,9% (40), VOX 9,8% (13)". Electograph (in Spanish). 13 May 2020.
  19. "El PP se dispara en la Comunidad de Madrid y Ciudadanos se hunde". ABC (in Spanish). 2 May 2020.
  20. "Barómetro de ABC/GAD3 Comunidad de Madrid y Ayuntamiento de Madrid (2 y 3 de mayo)". GAD3 (in Spanish). 2 May 2020.
  21. "Estimación Abril 2020. Comunidad de Madrid. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 27 April 2020.
  22. "CAMPanel (3A): desplome de Más Madrid, que se queda sin escaños. Ayuso seguiría al frente de la CAM, si Vox, que alcanza a Cs, lo permite". Electomanía (in Spanish). 3 April 2020.
  23. "Estudio Sociológico Autonómico. Comunidad de Madrid. Julio de 2019" (PDF). Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 1 August 2019.
  24. "La repetición electoral en Madrid sólo beneficia al PP". La Razón (in Spanish). 15 July 2019.
  25. "Encuesta NC Report. Julio de 2019" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 15 July 2019.
Other
  1. "Ley Orgánica 3/1983, de 25 de febrero, de Estatuto de Autonomía de la Comunidad de Madrid". Organic Law No. 3 of 25 February 1983. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2017.
  2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. "Ley 11/1986, de 16 de diciembre, Electoral de la Comunidad de Madrid". Law No. 11 of 16 November 1986. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2017.
  4. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  5. Caballero, Fátima (15 September 2020). "La izquierda madrileña asume que no hay más salida que la moción de censura a Ayuso y traslada la presión a Ciudadanos". eldiario.es. Retrieved 18 September 2020.
  6. Mateo, Juan José (18 September 2020). "El virus desborda a Madrid y obliga a Sánchez y Ayuso a reunirse para coordinarse". El País. Madrid. Retrieved 18 September 2020.
  7. "Ayuso se va a las urnas". Voz Pópuli. 9 September 2020. Retrieved 20 September 2020.
  8. Belver, Marta (22 June 2020). "Génova frenó la intención de Ayuso de convocar elecciones anticipadas". El Mundo. Madrid. Retrieved 17 September 2020.
  9. "Díaz Ayuso admite que sopesó convocar elecciones anticipadas en Madrid". El País. Madrid. Agencias. 22 June 2020. Retrieved 17 September 2020.
  10. Morodo, Carmen (10 September 2020). "Ayuso plantea adelantar las urnas e ir al mismo tiempo que Cataluña". La Razón. Retrieved 17 September 2020.
  11. Martiarena, Asier (11 September 2020). "Guerra de nervios en Madrid". La Vanguardia. Madrid. Retrieved 17 September 2020.
  12. Vega, Nuria (11 September 2020). "Díaz Ayuso aparca la posibilidad de convocar elecciones en Madrid coincidiendo con las catalanas". La Voz de Galicia. Madrid. Retrieved 20 September 2020.
  13. "Grupos Parlamentarios". Assembly of Madrid (in Spanish). Retrieved 11 October 2019.
  14. "Mónica García liderará la dirección de Más Madrid en la Comunidad tras el respaldo de los afiliados" (in Spanish). Europa Press. 10 July 2020. Retrieved 15 July 2020.
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