Next Andalusian regional election

The next Andalusian regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 1 January 2023, to elect the 12th Parliament of the autonomous community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

Next Andalusian regional election
No later than 1 January 2023
All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia
55 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Susana Díaz Juan Manuel Moreno Juan Marín
Party PSOE–A PP Cs
Leader since 7 September 2013 1 March 2014 6 February 2015
Leader's seat Seville Málaga Seville
Last election 33 seats, 27.9% 26 seats, 20.7% 21 seats, 18.3%
Current seats 33 26 21
Seats needed 22 29 34
 
Leader Alejandro Hernández Valdés TBD Teresa Rodríguez
Party Vox AA ANSR
Leader since 7 February 2019 — 28 October 2020
Leader's seat Córdoba — Málaga
Last election 12 seats, 11.0% 17 seats, 16.2% Did not contest
Current seats 11 9 8
Seats needed 44 46 47
Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia
Incumbent President

Juan Manuel Moreno
PP

The 2018 election resulted in the first majority for right-of-centre parties in Andalusia in 36 years, paving the way for an alternative government to the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) despite this party remaining the most voted political force in the region.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Andalusia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Andalusia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution of 1978 and the regional Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Andalusians abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, with each being allocated an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the number of seats in each province does not exceed two times that of any other).[1][3]

The use of the D'Hondt method may result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[4]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (BOJA), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 2 December 2018, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 2 December 2022. The election decree must be published in the BOJA no later than 8 November 2022, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 1 January 2023.[1][3][5]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1][6]

Parliamentary status

The table below shows the status of the different parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the present time.[7]

Current parliamentary composition[8]
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE–A 33 33
Andalusian People's Parliamentary Group PP 26 26
Citizens Parliamentary Group Cs 21 21
Vox Parliamentary Group in Andalusia Vox 11 11
Forward Andalusia Parliamentary Group IULV–CA 6 8
Podemos 2
Non-Inscrits Anticapitalistas 9[lower-alpha 1] 10
FE–JONS 1[lower-alpha 2]

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][5]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PSOE–A Susana Díaz Social democracy 27.94% 33 N
PP Juan Manuel Moreno Conservatism
Christian democracy		 20.75% 26 Y
Cs Juan Marín Liberalism 18.28% 21 Y
AA TBD Andalusian nationalism
Left-wing populism
Direct democracy		 16.19% 17 N
ANSR Teresa Rodríguez Anti-capitalism
Socialism		 N [9]
Vox Alejandro Hernández Valdés Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism		 10.96% 12 N [12]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 55 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout AxSí ANSR Lead
Dataestudios/ABC[p 1] 7–13 Jan 2021 ? ? 25.2
29/31		 26.3
33/36		 10.4
10/12		 – 15.9
17/20		 – – 10.9
12/14		 4.2
1/3		 1.1
Celeste-Tel/PSOE[p 2][p 3] 30 Nov–14 Dec 2020 1,000 ? 31.4
40		 25.3
32		 13.2
13		 – 11.9
12		 – – 11.8
12		 2.4
0		 6.1
Invest Group/CEA[p 4] 23 Nov–3 Dec 2020 3,600 48.0 23.5
27/30		 26.6
35/38		 12.2
13/15		 – 15.7
16/19		 – – 10.3
10/12		 4.8
1/3		 3.1
NC Report/La Razón[p 5][p 6] 2 Dec 2020 900 ? 28.9
37/38		 25.9
31/32		 12.7
13/14		 – 12.0
12/13		 – – 11.3
11/12		 4.8
2/4		 3.0
Hamalgama Métrica/OKDiario[p 7] 30 Nov–1 Dec 2020 800 ? 28.3
37		 25.5
31		 11.5
12		 – 13.2
14		 – – 12.5
14		 3.0
1		 2.8
Dialoga Consultores[p 8] 23–27 Nov 2020 1,500 ? 25.6
29/32		 28.1
36/39		 11.8
9/13		 – 12.5
16/19		 – – 9.8
7/10		 6.1
4/7		 2.5
SW Demoscopia/Grupo Viva[p 9][p 10] 16–26 Nov 2020 ? ? 26.9
31/33		 28.7
34/37		 10.6
11/14		 – 14.1
13/16		 – – 5.6
3/6		 9.8
8/11		 1.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 11] 30 Sep–13 Nov 2020 7,230 ? 30.4
38		 31.1
38		 11.6
11		 – 11.1
11		 – – 10.8
11		 4.1
0		 0.7
Invest Group/CEA[p 12] 15–25 Sep 2020 3,600 51.8 26.4
29/32		 30.2
39/42		 11.9
13/14		 – 13.3
14/15		 – – 10.8
10/13		 4.2
0/2		 3.8
Celeste-Tel/PSOE[p 13][p 14] 26 Jun–4 Jul 2020 1,000 ? 31.1
40		 26.0
31		 11.2
10		 – 10.9
11		 – – 16.6
17		 – 5.1
Invest Group/CEA[p 15] 18 Jun–1 Jul 2020 3,600 58.0 30.4
35/37		 30.8
36/37		 11.2
12/13		 – 10.1
11/12		 – – 9.4
9/11		 4.0
2/3		 0.4
SW Demoscopia/Grupo Viva[p 16][p 17] 8–15 May 2020 1,000 ? 25.1
28/31		 26.8
28/32		 13.1
13/16		 – 14.7
15/18		 – – 15.8
16/19		 – 1.7
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 18][p 19] 1 Apr–15 May 2020 ? ? 28.0
36		 33.1
44		 10.3
11		 – 9.7
9		 – – 8.4
7		 4.7
2		 5.1
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 20] 23–27 Feb 2020 1,100 ? 25.5
32		 24.7
31		 8.1
8		 – 19.7
23		 – 0.6
0		 14.4
15		 4.0
0		 0.8
GAD3/ABC[p 21][p 22] 17–21 Feb 2020 802 ? 28.6
33/36		 26.5
32/33		 9.3
8/10		 15.8
16/17		 14.7
16/17		 – – – – 2.1
SW Demoscopia/Grupo Viva[p 23][p 24] 5–18 Feb 2020 1,310 ? 25.7
29/31		 26.4
29/32		 9.6
9/13		 17.1
17/21		 15.4
16/19		 – – – – 0.7
Celeste-Tel/PSOE[p 25][p 26] 20–30 Jan 2020 2,600 61.1 31.6
40		 25.1
30		 12.2
11		 17.0
17		 10.7
11		 – – – – 6.5
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 27] 9 Jan 2020 ? ? 24.8
29		 24.0
29		 7.3
6		 17.9
18		 21.0
27		 – 0.6
0		 – – 0.8
Nexo/CEA[p 28] 25 Nov–12 Dec 2019 2,627 57.0 27.8 24.5 10.5 15.6 16.2 1.4 – – – 3.3
November 2019 general election 10 Nov 2019 N/A 65.9 33.4
42		 20.5
24		 8.1
7		 – 20.4
23		 1.1
0		 0.3
0		 13.1
13		 – 12.9
Celeste-Tel/PSOE[p 29] 15–25 Jul 2019 2,600 60.8 33.6
42		 24.6
30		 14.0
13		 16.1
17		 8.2
7		 – – – – 9.0
Asé–Psiké/CEA[p 30] 10–26 Jun 2019 2,567 60.2 30.5 24.8 17.8 14.0 8.1 1.2 – – – 5.7
2019 EP election 26 May 2019 N/A 58.4 40.5
54		 22.3
27		 13.0
12		 – 7.6
8		 1.4
0		 0.5
0		 11.6
12		 – 18.2
April 2019 general election 28 Apr 2019 N/A 70.8 34.2
42		 17.2
19		 17.7
20		 – 13.4
13		 1.4
0		 0.2
0		 14.3
15		 – 16.5
2018 regional election 2 Dec 2018 N/A 56.6 27.9
33		 20.7
26		 18.3
21		 16.2
17		 11.0
12		 1.9
0		 0.6
0		 – – 7.2

Notes
  1. Teresa Rodríguez, Ángela Aguilera, José Ignacio García, Luz Marina Dorado, María Vanessa García, María Gracia González, Ignacio Molina, Ana Villaverde and Diego Crespo, former Podemos legislators.[9]
  2. Luz Belinda Rodríguez, former Vox legislator.[10][11]

References
Opinion poll sources
  1. "El PP ganaría las elecciones en Andalucía pero necesitaría a Vox y Ciudadanos para gobernar". ABC (in Spanish). 12 December 2020.
  2. "El PSOE ganaría las elecciones andaluzas con 40 diputados, según una encuesta de Celeste-Tel". El Plural (in Spanish). 17 January 2021.
  3. "ANDALUCÍA. Encuesta Celeste-Tel (interna PSOE) 17/01/2021: ADELANTE ANDALUCÍA 2,4%, UNIDAS PODEMOS 11,8% (12), PSOE 31,4% (40), Cs 13,2% (13), PP 25,3% (32), VOX 11,9% (12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 January 2021.
  4. "Barómetro Andaluz. Diciembre 2020". CEA (in Spanish). 12 December 2020.
  5. "El Gobierno del cambio se reeditaría en Andalucía". La Razón (in Spanish). 2 December 2020.
  6. "ANDALUCÍA. Encuesta NC Report 02/12/2020: ADELANTE ANDALUCÍA 4,8% (2/4), UNIDAS PODEMOS 11,3% (11/12), PSOE 28,9% (37/38), Cs 12,7% (13/14), PP 25,9% (31/32), VOX 12% (12/13)". Electograph (in Spanish). 2 December 2020.
  7. "La derecha volvería a gobernar en Andalucía dos años después de las autonómicas". OKDiario (in Spanish). 2 December 2020.
  8. "PP-A ganaría con 2,5 puntos y 7 diputados sobre el PSOE-A y volvería a sumar mayoría con Vox y Cs, según un sondeo". Europa Press (in Spanish). 29 November 2020.
  9. "El PP afianza su liderazgo en un año marcado por la crisis del Covid". Andalucía Información (in Spanish). 1 December 2020.
  10. "ANDALUCÍA. Encuesta SW Demoscopia 02/12/2020: ADELANTE ANDALUCÍA 9,8% (8/11), UNIDAS PODEMOS 5,6% (3/6), PSOE 26,9% (31/33), Cs 10,6% (11/14), PP 28,7% (34/37), VOX 14,1% (13/16)". Electograph (in Spanish). 1 December 2020.
  11. "EP Autonómico (15N): Teresa Rodríguez, sin escaño, sería 'expulsada' del Parlamento andaluz. Vox saca partido de la bronca en Adelante Andalucía". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 November 2020.
  12. "Barómetro Andaluz. Septiembre 2020". CEA (in Spanish). 7 October 2020.
  13. "El PSOE andaluz recupera vigor y sumaría con la izquierda ante un PP reforzado". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 20 July 2020.
  14. "ANDALUCÍA. Encuesta Celeste-Tel 20/07/2020: ADELANTE ANDALUCÍA 16,6% (17), PSOE 31,1% (40), Cs 11,2% (10), PP 26,0% (31), VOX 10,9% (11)". Electograph (in Spanish). 20 July 2020.
  15. "Barómetro Andaluz. Junio 2020". CEA (in Spanish). 20 July 2020.
  16. "PP aguanta el pulso a PSOE en Andalucía con el tripartito consolidado". Andalucía Información (in Spanish). 21 May 2020.
  17. "ANDALUCÍA. Encuesta SW Demoscopia 21/05/2020: ADELANTE ANDALUCÍA 15,8% (16/19), PSOE 25,1% (28/31), Cs 13,2% (13/16), PP 26,8% (28/32), VOX 14,7% (15/18)". Electograph (in Spanish). 21 May 2020.
  18. "EP (17My): Andalucía – el PP de Juanma Moreno se coloca primero". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  19. "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  20. "AndPanel (28F): la derecha seguiría gobernando en Andalucía con el PP rozando la primera fuerza". Electomanía (in Spanish). 10 January 2020.
  21. "PP, Vox y Ciudadanos consolidan la ventaja como mayoría de Gobierno en Andalucía". ABC (in Spanish). 28 February 2020.
  22. "Sondeo de GAD3 para ABC Sevilla por el Día de Andalucía (28 feb)". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 February 2020.
  23. "PP y Cs seguirían al frente de la Junta con el apoyo de Vox". Andalucía Información (in Spanish). 25 February 2020.
  24. "ANDALUCÍA. Encuesta SW Demoscopia 25/02/2020: ADELANTE ANDALUCÍA 17,1% (17/21), PSOE 25,7% (29/31), Cs 9,6% (9/13), PP 26,4% (29/32), VOX 15,4% (16/19)". Electograph (in Spanish). 25 February 2020.
  25. "El PSOE-A ganaría las autonómicas con 40 escaños y PP-A, Cs y Vox no sumarían mayoría absoluta, según un sondeo socialista". La Razón (in Spanish). 21 February 2020.
  26. "PSOE y Adelante Andalucía arrebatarían la mayoría absoluta a las tres derechas, según el sondeo encargado por los socialistas". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 21 February 2020.
  27. "AndalûhPanel (10e): PP, PSOE y Vox se disputan la victoria casi empatados. La derecha se consolida". Electomanía (in Spanish). 10 January 2020.
  28. "Barómetro Andaluz. Diciembre 2019". CEA (in Spanish). 14 January 2020.
  29. "Un sondeo encargado por el PSOE revela que el 51,6% de andaluces censura el pacto de las tres derechas para gobernar su región". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 1 August 2019.
  30. "Barómetro Andaluz. Junio 2019". CEA (in Spanish). 27 July 2019.
Other
  1. "Ley Orgánica 2/2007, de 19 de marzo, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía para Andalucía". Organic Law No. 2 of 19 March 2007. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 September 2017.
  2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. "Ley 1/1986, de 2 de enero, Electoral de Andalucía". Law No. 1 of 2 January 1986. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  4. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  5. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  6. "Ley 6/2006, de 24 de octubre, del Gobierno de la Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía". Law No. 6 of 24 October 2006. Boltín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
  7. "Elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía (1982 - 2018)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 March 2019.
  8. "Parliamentary Groups". www.parlamentodeandalucia.es (in Spanish). Parliament of Andalusia. Retrieved 20 July 2020.
  9. Domínguez Reguero, Javier (28 October 2020). "La mesa del Parlamento expulsa a Teresa Rodríguez de Adelante Andalucía". eldiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 October 2020.
  10. Moreno, Silvia (21 January 2020). "Otra crisis en Vox: una diputada abandona el grupo parlamentario y denuncia acoso ante la Policía". El Mundo (in Spanish). Seville. Retrieved 29 January 2020.
  11. Cela, Daniel (15 March 2020). "La diputada almeriense que dejó Vox se une a Falange y llevará sus iniciativas al Parlamento de Andalucía". eldiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 July 2020.
  12. Maestre, Romualdo (7 February 2019). "El parlamentario de Vox por Córdoba, nuevo portavoz en la Cámara andaluza". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). Córdoba. Retrieved 28 October 2020.
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