2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas

The 2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2010 alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas
November 2, 2010
 
Nominee John Boozman Blanche Lincoln
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 451,617 288,156
Percentage 57.90% 36.95%
County results
Boozman:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Lincoln:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Blanche Lincoln
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

John Boozman
Republican

Elections in Arkansas
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Little Rock
Mayoral elections

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln ran for re-election to a third term, facing a strong primary challenge from Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and prevailing only in a runoff. However, the general election was won by U.S. Representative John Boozman, the younger brother of Fay Boozman whom Lincoln defeated in 1998. Boozman became the first Republican in 138 years to win this seat. Lincoln's 21% margin of defeat was the largest for a sitting senator in 32 years.[1]

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3 to 17. Lincoln was challenged by Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, who ran as a more liberal alternative. As no candidate received 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election was held on June 8, with early voting from June 1 to 7. Lincoln managed to narrowly defeat Halter in the runoff.[2]

MoveOn.org supported Halter, criticizing Lincoln for her stance on issues such as health care and environmental regulations.[3] Labor unions also backed Halter, and pledged to spend more than $3 million on his campaign.[4]

Candidates

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Blanche
Lincoln		 Bill
Halter		 D.C.
Morrison		 Other Undecided
Research 2000 March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 44% 31% — — 25%
Talk Business April 13, 2010 1,167 ± 3% 38% 31% 10% — 20%
Research 2000 April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 43% 35% — 7% 15%
Research 2000 May 10–12, 2010 600 ± 5% 46% 37% 6% — 11%
Research 2000 November 30 – December 2, 2010 600 ± 4% 42% 26% — — 32%

Results
Democratic primary results[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Blanche Lincoln (incumbent) 146,579 44.5%
Democratic Bill Halter 140,081 42.5%
Democratic D.C. Morrison 42,695 13.0%
Total votes 329,355 100.0%

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Blanche
Lincoln		 Bill
Halter		 Undecided
Research 2000 May 24–26, 2010 600 ± 4% 44% 47% 9%
Research 2000 June 2–4, 2010 600 ± 4% 45% 49% 6%

Results
Lincoln counties in blue, Halter counties in green.
Democratic primary runoff results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Blanche Lincoln (incumbent) 134,758 52.0%
Democratic Bill Halter 124,405 48.0%
Total votes 259,163 100.0%

Republican primary

The Republican primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3–17.

Candidates
  • Randy Alexander, University of Arkansas Housing Director and Vice Chair of the Washington County Tea Party
  • Gilbert Baker, University administrator and State Senator[9]
  • John Boozman, Ophthalmologist and U.S. Representative[10]
  • Curtis Coleman, businessman[11]
  • Kim Hendren, Auto dealer, former state representative, 1982 gubernatorial candidate, State Senate Minority Leader[12]
  • Jim Holt, former State Senator and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004, and Lt. Governor in 2006[13]
  • Fred Ramey, real estate investment company owner[14]
  • Conrad Reynolds, retired Army colonel[15]
Straw poll

In December 2009, a straw poll was held for the current Republican candidates for U.S. Senate. The results were as follows:[16]

  1. Gilbert Baker – 35%
  2. Curtis Coleman – 33%
  3. Conrad Reynolds – 23%
  4. Tom Cox – 4%
  5. Kim Hendren – 2%
  6. Fred Ramey – 2%
  7. Buddy Rogers – 1%

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Randy
Alexander		 Gilbert
Baker		 John
Boozman		 Curtis
Coleman		 Kim
Hendren		 Jim
Holt		 Fred
Ramey		 Conrad
Reynolds		 Other Undecided
Talk Business April 13, 2010 1,357 ± 3% 3% 14% 46% 5% 3% 8% 1% 3% — 17%
Research 2000 May 10–12, 2010 ? ± 4% — 12% 46% — 6% 19% — — 4% 13%

Results
Republican primary results[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Boozman 75,010 52.7%
Republican Jim Holt 24,826 17.5%
Republican Gilbert Baker 16,540 11.6%
Republican Conrad Reynolds 7,128 5.0%
Republican Curtis Coleman 6,928 4.9%
Republican Kim Hendren 5,551 3.9%
Republican Randy Alexander 4,389 3.1%
Republican Fred Ramey 1,888 1.3%
Total votes 142,260 100.0%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Arkansas had previously only elected one Republican senator since the Reconstruction, Tim Hutchinson who was defeated after his first term in 2002 by Mark Pryor. Lincoln faced Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and narrowly won the primary contest.

The political blog FiveThirtyEight ranked Lincoln the most vulnerable senator of this electoral cycle. RealClearPolitics claimed that in 2010 Lincoln had the potential for the lowest percentage of the vote for any incumbent since the nation first began directly electing senators.[21] Boozman received 58% of the vote in the general election and defeated Lincoln (37%), Independent Trevor Drown (3%) and Green John Gray (2%).

Lincoln heavily criticized Boozman of supporting the FairTax and privatization of Social Security.[22] She released an advertisement touting her support for earmarks.[23]

Debates

Lincoln and Boozman agreed to two debates.

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[25] Lean R (flip) October 9, 2010
Rothenberg[26] Likely R (flip) October 8, 2010
RealClearPolitics[27] Safe R (flip) October 9, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] Safe R (flip) October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[29] Lean R (flip) October 9, 2010

Fundraising
Candidate (Party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Blanche Lincoln (D) $9,508,007 $8,431,989 $1,886,132 $0
John Boozman (R) $1,452,241 $968,318 $483,923 $11,905
Source: Federal Election Commission[30]

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Blanche
Lincoln (D)		 John
Boozman (R)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 29–31, 2010 810 ± 3.4% 33% 56% — 11%
Rasmussen Reports February 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 54% 4% 7%
Rasmussen Reports March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 48% 6% 7%
Research 2000 March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 42% 49% — 9%
Rasmussen Reports March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% 51% 6% 7%
Rasmussen Reports April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 30% 57% 9% 5%
Research 2000 April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 42% 52% — —
Research 2000 May 10–12, 2010 — ± 4% 40% 54% — —
Rasmussen Reports May 19, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 28% 66% 2% 4%
Research 2000 May 24–26, 2010 600 ± 4% 38% 58% — 4%
Rasmussen Reports June 15, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 32% 61% 4% 3%
Magellan Strategies July 12, 2010 879 ± 3.3% 29% 60% 4% 6%
Talk Business July 17, 2010 793 ± 3.7% 32% 57% 5% 6%
Reuters/Ipsos July 16–18, 2010 600 ± 4% 35% 54% 1% 10%
Rasmussen Reports July 20, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 60% 2% 3%
Rasmussen Reports August 18, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 27% 65% 4% 3%
Mason-Dixon September 12–14, 2010 625 ± 4% 34% 51% 4% 11%
Reuters/Ipsos September 17–19, 2010 600 ± 4% 39% 53% 1% 7%
Rasmussen Reports September 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% 55% 3% 5%
Talk Business October 14, 2010 1,953 ± 2.2% 36% 49% 8% 7%
Mason-Dixon October 15–19, 2010 625 ± 4% 34% 55% 6% 5%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research October 15–19, 2010 1,505 ± 2.5% 41% 55% — —
Rasmussen Reports October 28, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% 55% 5% 4%

Results
United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2010[31]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican John Boozman 451,617 57.90% +13.83%
Democratic Blanche Lincoln (incumbent) 288,156 36.95% -18.95%
Libertarian Trevor Drown 25,234 3.24% +3.24%
Green John Gray 14,430 1.85% +1.85%
Majority 163,461 20.95%
Total votes 779,437 100.00%
Turnout
Republican gain from Democratic Swing

See also

References
  1. Enten, Harry (December 5, 2014). "Senate Forecast: Landrieu Headed Toward Historic Defeat In Louisiana Runoff". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 13, 2020.
  2. "Election Dates and Deadlines". Secretary of State of Arkansas. Archived from the original on March 5, 2010. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  3. Cillizza, Chris. "The Fix" Washington Post, March 3, 2010.
  4. DeMillo, Andrew. "Halter raises more than $2M for Ark. Senate bid" Archived October 23, 2012, at the Wayback Machine Business Week, April 1, 2010.
  5. "CNN Political Ticker - All politics, all the time - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
  6. "Vice President in Little Rock to Support Senator Lincoln". KATV. March 15, 2009. Archived from the original on July 6, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  7. "Arkansas Secretary of State". Votenaturally.org. June 18, 2010. Retrieved August 23, 2014.
  8. "Arkansas Democratic Runoff Results". Politico. June 8, 2010. Retrieved June 8, 2010.
  9. Stewart, Martina (September 1, 2009). "Former Arkansas GOP chair announces Senate bid". CNN. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  10. Kraushaar, Josh (January 29, 2010). "Boozman running against Lincoln". The Politico. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  11. Barr, Andy (June 15, 2009). "Tea party leader to run for Senate". The Politico. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  12. "Kim Hendren Announces Run for U.S. Senate". KFSM-TV. April 20, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  13. Lyon, John (January 14, 2010). "Holt announces U.S. Senate campaign". Arkansas News. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  14. "Ramey Joins GOP Field for U.S. Senate". KATV. June 23, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  15. "'Joe the Plumber' appears with Reynolds". WXVT. January 25, 2010. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  16. Moritz, Rob (December 8, 2009). "Baker Upbeat After 'Straw Poll' Win". Southwest Times Record. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  17. "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. Retrieved June 7, 2010.
  18. "The Courier, Russellville, Ark". Couriernews.com. July 27, 2009. Archived from the original on July 8, 2011. Retrieved June 7, 2010.
  19. "Trevor Drown (I) for Senate - Arkansas". Trevordrown.ning.com. January 31, 2010. Archived from the original on April 18, 2010. Retrieved June 7, 2010.
  20. "John Gray for U.S. Senate". John Gray for U.S. Senate. Archived from the original on May 7, 2010. Retrieved June 7, 2010.
  21. "RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Arkansas Senate - Boozman vs. Lincoln". Archived from the original on January 16, 2019.
  22. Demillo, Andrew (August 11, 2010). "Lincoln criticizes Boozman on Social Security". BusinessWeek. Retrieved August 23, 2014.
  23. Zwick, Jesse (August 31, 2010). "The Earmark Wars Continue in Arkansas". The Washington Independent. Archived from the original on August 26, 2014. Retrieved August 23, 2014.
  24. Archived August 24, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
  25. "Senate". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
  26. "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
  27. "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
  28. "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
  29. "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
  30. "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Arkansas". fec.gov. Retrieved July 25, 2010.
  31. "Arkansas Secretary of State". Votenaturally.org. November 29, 2010. Retrieved August 23, 2014.
Debates
Official campaign sites
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