2020 United States presidential election in Arkansas

The 2020 United States presidential election in Arkansas was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Arkansas voters chose six electors[2] to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. The Libertarian, Green, Constitution, American Solidarity, Life and Liberty, and Socialism and Liberation nominees were also on the ballot, as were five Independent candidates.

2020 United States presidential election in Arkansas

November 3, 2020
Turnout66.92%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 760,647 423,932
Percentage 62.40% 34.78%

County results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

On the day of the election, Trump scored a convincing victory in Arkansas, defeating Biden by 28 points; he improved his statewide performance in 2016 by two points. This extended the Republican Party's streak of improving margins in Arkansas to seven consecutive elections, by far the longest current streak in the nation for either party. However, Biden did improve in Washington County, home to the college town of Fayetteville, only losing it by four points. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Arkansas came from 86% with white, born again/evangelical Christians. 52% of voters opposed changing the Arkansas state flag to remove the star that symbolizes the Confederacy, and these voters backed Trump by 88%–10%.[3] Biden also became the first Democrat to win the presidency without Woodruff County.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump and Bill Weld were among the declared Republicans candidates. Tom Cotton, current senator from Arkansas, has declined to run as of January 2019.[4][5][6]

The following candidates are on the ballot.[7]

2020 Arkansas Republican Party presidential primary[8]
Candidate Popular vote Delegates
Count Percentage
Donald Trump 238,980 97.13% 40
Bill Weld 5,216 2.12% 0
Rocky De La Fuente 1,848 0.75% 0
Total 246,044 100% 40

Democratic primary

Popular vote share by county
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Sanders—30–40%
2020 Arkansas Democratic presidential primary[9]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[10]
Joe Biden 93,012 40.59 17
Bernie Sanders 51,413 22.44 9
Michael Bloomberg 38,312 16.72 5
Elizabeth Warren 22,971 10.03
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) 7,649 3.34
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn†) 7,009 3.06
Tom Steyer (withdrawn†) 2,053 0.90
Tulsi Gabbard 1,593 0.70
Kamala Harris (withdrawn) 715 0.31
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 715 0.31
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 574 0.25
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 572 0.25
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 501 0.22
Steve Bullock (withdrawn) 485 0.21
John Delaney (withdrawn) 443 0.19
Joe Sestak (withdrawn) 408 0.18
Mosie Boyd 393 0.17
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 304 0.13
Total 229,122 100% 31
†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[11] Safe R November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[12] Safe R November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] Safe R November 3, 2020
Politico[14] Safe R November 3, 2020
RCP[15] Likely R November 3, 2020
Niskanen[16] Safe R November 3, 2020
CNN[17] Safe R November 3, 2020
The Economist[18] Safe R November 3, 2020
CBS News[19] Likely R November 3, 2020
270towin[20] Safe R November 3, 2020
ABC News[21] Safe R November 3, 2020
NPR[22] Likely R November 3, 2020
NBC News[23] Safe R November 3, 2020
538[24] Safe R November 3, 2020

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
270 to Win September 20 – October 21, 2020 October 28, 2020 35.0% 60.3% 4.7% Trump +25.3
FiveThirtyEight until October 27, 2020 October 28, 2020 35.5% 59.7% 4.8% Trump +24.2
Average 35.3% 60.0% 4.7% Trump +24.7

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,309 (LV) ± 4% 61%[lower-alpha 3] 38% - -
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 2,239 (LV) 60% 38% - -
University of Arkansas Oct 9–21, 2020 591 (LV) ± 3.9% 65% 32% - - 3%
Hendrix College/Talk Business & Politics Oct 11–13, 2020 647 (LV) ± 4.9% 58% 34% 2% 1% 2%[lower-alpha 4] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 771 (LV) 62% 38% - - 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 689 (LV) 67% 32% - - 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 747 (LV) 66% 32% - - 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 354 (LV) 59% 38% - - 2%
Hendrix College/Talk Business & Politics Jun 9–10, 2020 869 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 45% - - 5%[lower-alpha 5] 3%

Statewide results

2020 United States presidential election in Arkansas[25]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
760,647 62.40% +1.83%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
423,932 34.78% +1.13%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
13,133 1.08% -1.56%
Independent Kanye West
Michelle Tidball
4,099 0.34% N/A
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
2,980 0.24% -0.60%
Independent Phil Collins
Billy Joe Parker
2,812 0.23% N/A
Independent Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard
2,141 0.18% N/A
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr
2,108 0.17% -0.24%
American Solidarity Brian Carroll
Amar Patel
1,713 0.14% N/A
Independent C. L. Gammon
Phil Collins[lower-alpha 6]
1,475 0.12% N/A
Life and Liberty John Richard Myers
Tiara Lusk
1,372 0.11% N/A
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman
1,336 0.11% N/A
Independent Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson
1,321 0.11% N/A
Total votes 1,219,069 100% +2.83%

Results by county

Vote breakdown by county[25]
Trump/Pence
Republican
Biden/Harris
Democratic
Others[lower-alpha 7] Margin Total
County Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes
Arkansas4,30468.40%1,81828.89%1702.70% 2,486 39.51%6,292
Ashley5,54870.00%2,12526.81%2533.19% 3,423 43.19%7,926
Baxter15,83675.38%4,63522.06%5362.55% 11,201 53.32%21,007
Benton73,96561.68%42,24935.23%3,6983.08% 31,716 26.45%119,912
Boone13,65279.77%3,06417.90%3982.33% 10,588 61.87%17,114
Bradley2,33563.90%1,21433.22%1052.87% 1,121 30.68%3,654
Calhoun1,63674.98%47921.95%673.07% 1,157 53.02%2,182
Carroll7,42462.93%4,02334.10%3502.97% 3,401 28.83%11,797
Chicot1,75242.70%2,26055.08%912.22% –508 –12.38%4,103
Clark4,61654.99%3,43840.95%3414.06% 1,178 14.03%8,395
Clay4,08678.83%96218.56%1352.60% 3,124 60.27%5,183
Cleburne10,32881.45%1,98815.68%3642.87% 8,340 65.77%12,680
Cleveland2,86779.64%65118.08%822.28% 2,216 61.56%3,600
Columbia5,50063.83%2,81432.66%3023.51% 2,686 31.17%8,616
Conway5,69465.56%2,61530.11%3764.33% 3,079 35.45%8,685
Craighead25,55866.37%11,92130.95%1,0322.68% 13,637 35.41%38,511
Crawford18,60777.24%4,95920.58%5252.18% 13,648 56.65%24,091
Crittenden7,33344.80%8,51452.02%5203.18% –1,181 –7.22%16,367
Cross4,94671.25%1,77225.53%2243.23% 3,174 45.72%6,942
Dallas1,57359.38%96336.35%1134.27% 610 23.03%2,649
Desha1,92146.13%2,01648.41%2275.45% –95 –2.28%4,164
Drew4,34962.96%2,42635.12%1331.93% 1,923 27.84%6,908
Faulkner34,42163.24%18,34733.71%1,6603.05% 16,074 29.53%54,428
Franklin5,67779.63%1,30018.24%1522.13% 4,377 61.40%7,129
Fulton3,96177.38%1,03520.22%1232.40% 2,926 57.16%5,119
Garland29,06965.77%14,04531.78%1,0852.45% 15,024 33.99%44,199
Grant6,79482.85%1,26815.46%1381.68% 5,526 67.39%8,200
Greene12,67078.70%3,05818.99%3722.31% 9,612 59.70%16,100
Hempstead4,47065.27%2,13831.22%2403.50% 2,332 34.05%6,848
Hot Spring9,20273.28%3,08224.54%2732.17% 6,120 48.74%12,557
Howard3,36769.65%1,34027.72%1272.63% 2,027 41.93%4,834
Independence11,25077.52%2,80619.34%4563.14% 8,444 58.19%14,512
Izard4,63179.71%1,02117.57%1582.72% 3,610 62.13%5,810
Jackson3,59370.58%1,36526.81%1332.61% 2,228 43.76%5,091
Jefferson9,52137.84%14,98159.55%6562.61% –5,460 –21.70%25,158
Johnson6,93873.05%2,28324.04%2772.92% 4,655 49.01%9,498
Lafayette1,75765.58%83931.32%833.10% 918 34.27%2,679
Lawrence4,56978.01%1,08018.44%2083.55% 3,489 59.57%5,857
Lee1,28645.15%1,42349.96%1394.88% –137 –4.81%2,848
Lincoln2,72970.75%1,03226.76%962.49% 1,697 44.00%3,857
Little River3,71571.76%1,22623.68%2364.56% 2,489 48.08%5,177
Logan6,44178.31%1,54418.77%2402.92% 4,897 59.54%8,225
Lonoke22,88474.63%6,68621.81%1,0923.56% 16,198 52.83%30,662
Madison5,65876.97%1,56321.26%1301.77% 4,095 55.71%7,351
Marion5,78377.08%1,53120.41%1892.52% 4,252 56.67%7,503
Miller11,92072.12%4,24525.68%3642.20% 7,675 46.43%16,529
Mississippi7,29659.12%4,55836.93%4883.95% 2,738 22.18%12,342
Monroe1,54554.87%1,14740.73%1244.40% 398 14.13%2,816
Montgomery3,04678.65%73118.87%962.48% 2,315 59.77%3,873
Nevada2,13363.52%1,07632.04%1494.44% 1,057 31.48%3,358
Newton3,19279.84%70917.73%972.43% 2,483 62.11%3,998
Ouachita5,29454.98%3,99541.49%3403.53% 1,299 13.49%9,629
Perry3,47975.19%1,01221.87%1362.94% 2,467 53.32%4,627
Phillips2,41738.72%3,62358.04%2023.24% –1,206 –19.32%6,242
Pike3,51982.88%64415.17%831.95% 2,875 67.71%4,246
Poinsett5,91878.69%1,42418.93%1792.38% 4,494 59.75%7,521
Polk7,03582.86%1,24614.68%2092.46% 5,789 68.19%8,490
Pope18,08174.01%5,77223.62%5792.37% 12,309 50.38%24,432
Prairie2,78679.71%65418.71%551.57% 2,132 61.00%3,495
Pulaski63,68737.47%101,94759.98%4,3222.54% –38,260 –22.51%169,956
Randolph5,35578.61%1,21517.84%2423.55% 4,140 60.78%6,812
St. Francis3,24245.61%3,60450.70%2623.69% –362 –5.09%7,108
Saline39,55669.45%16,06028.20%1,3432.36% 23,496 41.25%56,959
Scott2,96283.41%48313.60%1062.99% 2,479 69.81%3,551
Searcy3,36583.73%58814.63%661.64% 2,777 69.10%4,019
Sebastian31,19866.18%14,48730.73%1,4553.09% 16,711 35.45%47,140
Sevier3,88474.66%1,11621.45%2023.88% 2,768 53.21%5,202
Sharp5,93878.48%1,39818.48%2303.04% 4,540 60.01%7,566
Stone4,61677.74%1,18019.87%1422.39% 3,436 57.86%5,938
Union10,47863.09%5,58433.62%5453.28% 4,894 29.47%16,607
Van Buren6,03477.29%1,59320.40%1802.31% 4,441 56.88%7,807
Washington47,50450.39%43,82446.49%2,9383.12% 3,680 3.90%94,266
White24,18278.30%5,97819.36%7252.35% 18,204 58.94%30,885
Woodruff1,54362.32%85634.57%773.11% 687 27.75%2,476
Yell5,22677.53%1,28419.05%2313.43% 3,942 58.48%6,741
Total760,64762.40%423,93234.78%34,4902.83% 336,715 27.62%1,219,069

By congressional district

[27]

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 69% 28% Rick Crawford
2nd 53% 44% French Hill
3rd 62% 35% Steve Womack
4th 68% 30% Bruce Westerman

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. "Someone else" with 2%
  5. "Another candidate" with 5%
  6. C. L. Gammon was the original Presidential nominee of the Prohibition Party, with Phil Collins as his running mate. After Gammon withdrew, Collins was given the party's nomination for President, but appears on the ballot a second time as Gammon and Collins' original candidacy was never removed.[26]
  7. Includes Jo Jorgensen, Kanye West, Howie Hawkins, Phil Collins, Brock Pierce, Don Blankenship, Brian T. Carroll, C. L. Gammon, John Richard Myers, Gloria La Riva, and Rocky De La Fuente.

See also

References

  1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on January 3, 2019. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Archived from the original on January 9, 2019. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. "Arkansas Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  4. Wells, Dylan; Talwar, Saisha (August 9, 2017). "Trump could face GOP challengers in the 2020 election". ABC News. Archived from the original on August 10, 2017. Retrieved August 9, 2017.
  5. Millar, Lindsey (August 6, 2017). "Cotton figures in New York Times roundup on 2020 presidential race". Arkansas Times. Archived from the original on August 10, 2017. Retrieved August 10, 2017.
  6. Beaumont, Thomas (May 19, 2017). "GOP's Cotton in Iowa: "I'm ready for that new beginning."". The Seattle Times. Archived from the original on October 20, 2017. Retrieved October 19, 2017.
  7. "Sample ballots in Arkansas". January 28, 2020.
  8. "Election Night Reporting". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
  9. "Election Night Reporting". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved March 23, 2020.
  10. "Arkansas Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 3, 2020.
  11. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on March 23, 2020. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  12. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Archived from the original on May 27, 2020. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  13. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Archived from the original on April 4, 2020. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  14. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019. Archived from the original on June 14, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
  15. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019. Archived from the original on May 3, 2020. Retrieved April 27, 2020.
  16. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  17. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Archived from the original on June 16, 2020. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  18. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Archived from the original on July 5, 2020. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  19. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Archived from the original on July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  20. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win. Archived from the original on July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 23, 2020.
  21. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Archived from the original on July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  22. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Archived from the original on August 4, 2020. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  23. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Archived from the original on August 7, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  24. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on September 11, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  25. "2020 General Election and Nonpartisan Judicial Runoff". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved November 28, 2020.
  26. "Candidate Ballot Position Drawing" (PDF). Pulaski County Election Commission. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 9, 2020. Retrieved October 5, 2020.
  27. Nir, David (November 19, 2020). "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012". Daily Kos. Retrieved December 10, 2020.

Further reading

This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.