Arriva Rail North

As part of the new Franchise Agreement agreed in 2016, the Department for Transport required the introduction of a penalty fare scheme across 60% of the Northern network by the end of 2019 and across the entire network by the end of 2022.[28] The scheme aimed to reduce ticketless travel to less than 4.3% by March 2020 and 3.2% by March 2025.[28] In April 2018, a penalty fare scheme under the Railways (Penalty Fares) Regulations 2018 commenced to encourage passengers to purchase a ticket before boarding trains.

As ticket machines at Arriva Rail North managed stations did not accept cash, a 'Promise to Pay' notice system (similar to the Permit to Travel ticketing system) was in operation. Customers who wished to purchase a ticket at an unmanned station of origin (i.e. either a closed, or no ticket office) with cash were required to collect a 'Promise to Pay' notice prior to boarding from a ticket machine. These notices could then be exchanged with the on-board conductor or with a member of railway staff at the destination station for a paid ticket.[29] Section 6 of the Railways (Penalty Fares) Regulations 2018 also covered a number of scenarios that prohibited penalty fares being issued such 'no facilities in operation for the sale of a travel ticket for that passenger's journey'.[30]

Passenger journeys on Northern, 2010/11 to Q2 2019/20 (in millions, annual rolling average)[31][32]

Northern Rail performance from commencement of franchise in April 2016 to November 2018. Graph generated from published period performance data by Arriva Rail North.[33]

The franchise was widely criticised for implementing a new timetable in May 2018 which resulted in widespread delays and cancellations.[34][35] Network Rail and Northern announced an independent inquiry to learn lessons and identify route alterations in readiness for the next timetable change in December 2018.[36] In an attempt to counter operational problems, Northern implemented an emergency timetable on 4 June 2018[37] – it stemmed some delays and cancellations but was still problematic compared with performance before the timetable change.

Punctuality was particularly bad in the North West due to the delay in the Blackpool–Preston electrification scheme, and the number of trains per hour through Manchester increased, with more trains using the Ordsall Chord which became operational in December 2017. Network Rail only informed train operating companies in January 2018 that the electrification scheme would be delayed until November; Northern had planned for the scheme to be complete as scheduled by May 2018 (it had already been postponed from Autumn 2017) and had trained drivers to operate new routes with electric rolling stock. Consequently, an alternative timetable had to be drafted up, and many train drivers were not sufficiently trained to drive the existing diesel rolling stock; this resulted in widespread cancellations.[38] Furthermore, the additional services through the Manchester corridor resulted in increased congestion, and this had a knock-on effect.[39] Performance statistics published by the Office of Rail and Road in October 2018 showed that from April to June 2018, the franchise recorded the lowest PPM – measured by train service departing within 5 minutes of its scheduled time – of any quarter since punctuality records began on the Northern franchise in 2009.[40]

Performance later in 2018 continued to be poor, with many passengers protesting and a reduced service on Saturdays due to industrial action.[41][42] In October 2018, it was announced that Manchester Oxford Road station, the busiest station managed by Arriva Rail North with over 8 million passengers, was the most delayed station in the United Kingdom in 2018 – this was attributed to the chaos following the May 2018 timetable.[43][44] Between 14 October and 10 November 2018, Northern recorded the worst monthly performance on record, with more trains late than on time. Less than 40% of services arrived on time (defined as services arriving within 59 seconds of the planned arrival time) and only 71.9% departed within 5 minutes of the scheduled departure time.[45]

By November 2018, Arriva were re-evaluating their future involvement in the franchise due to a combination of declining passenger numbers as a result of the chaotic May 2018 timetable change and increasing compensation claims as a result of falling punctuality.[46] Both had pushed the franchise into financial losses and faced a £282 million government subsidy shortfall which was due to be passed onto the franchise.[47] Since the franchise commenced in April 2016, and despite an increase of 1,500 more weekly services transferred to Northern's operational remit, Northern had achieved no growth in passenger numbers.[48] Between April and June 2018, the franchise suffered a 2.4% decline in passenger numbers compared with the previous year. Of the 22 train operating companies in the United Kingdom to record a fall in passengers, Northern were one of only three franchises to record a year-on-year drop in passenger numbers in 2017–18.[49]

Statistics published in December 2018 showed that between April 2017 and March 2018, many Arriva Rail North managed stations recorded a drop in passengers – this period did not include the May 2018 timetable change or the increased Saturday strikes by conductors.[50] The Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, also reported that the failing railways in the region were resulting in increased congestion on the roads and Metrolink system, as passengers were abandoning the rail service as it had become less reliable since May 2018.[51] To counter continuing poor performance and encourage improved punctuality, the window for which passengers could claim compensation for delayed services was reduced from 30 minutes to 15 minutes from 17 December 2018.[52]

Minor changes were implemented in the December 2018 timetable change. However Northern said they did not expect a reliable service to be implemented until the May 2019 timetable change; it was expected that by this time there would be new rolling stock in service with the Class 195 and Class 331, newly electrified lines operational which would alleviate the shortage of diesel rolling stock in the Northern fleet and most notably operational flaws with the May 2018 timetable ironed out as part of better optimised timetable in May 2019.[53]

The first Class 195 and Class 331 units were introduced in July 2019

In May 2019, further Northern Connect services were introduced, namely the Chester to Leeds service[54] and the revised Manchester Airport to Barrow/Windermere service, to run via Wigan North Western. Northern also introduced an hourly service from Hull to Scarborough, doubling the service frequency on the Bridlington–Scarborough section of the line.

However, the May 2019 timetable did not include some of the improvements included in the original franchise agreement, such as a half-hourly service from Greenbank, Northwich, Knutsford and Altrincham to Stockport and Manchester; the additional Macclesfield and Poynton to Manchester and Blackpool service; or enhanced Sunday services.[55][56][57] The Transport Secretary, Chris Grayling, responded that "both Northern and Network Rail feel the additional paths cannot be accommodated without adversely affecting the reliability of other services on the network".[58]

In June 2019, the operator of last resort (managed by the Department for Transport) conducted due diligence into the franchise believing the both operational and financial performance to be "unsustainable".[59] The Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, overtly demanded that the franchise be terminated as Northern had not delivered legally-binding franchise requirements as agreed in 2016 when the franchise commenced – citing disproportionate number of cancelled services, inability to deliver a full Sunday service due to a lack of drivers and failure to deliver new services.[60]

On 1 July 2019, the first nine units – seven Class 195 units and two Class 331 units – were introduced with a further 93 units to be introduced over the following 12 months. The initial roll-out commenced on three routes: Manchester Airport to Liverpool Lime Street and Barrow/Windermere and Leeds to Doncaster.[61]

The franchise made a £21 million profit in 2016–17 and an £11.7 million profit in 2017–18 – a figure which does not include the fallout from the May 2018 timetable chaos.[62] At the start of the franchise, it was agreed that there would be a taxpayer subsidy of £275m in its first year and £260 in its third year – although Northern had received slightly more due to promised infrastructure improvements which the government had failed to deliver such as platforms 15 and 16 at Manchester Piccadilly which would have created a new path for the franchise to Manchester Airport. This subsidy was intended to fall sharply in 2020 to £221 million and by the end of the franchise in 2025 it would only receive £39 million.[63]

The fall in subsidy over the franchise is likely to push Arriva into a loss; The Times reported in summer 2019 that the Department of Transport viewed the franchise as "unsustainable" and were readying an Operator of Last Resort (OLR) in the event the franchise collapses.[64] The government and franchisee adopted a strategy of investing in new trains to attract new passengers to gradually reduce the subsidy over a long-term period – however the franchise has struggled to increase passenger numbers, a challenge exacerbated by the fallout from the chaotic May 2018 timetable change.

It was confirmed in October 2019 that the Department of Transport were formulating a stabilisation strategy for the franchise which could entail supervising its workings whilst letting Arriva operate the day-to-day services – an arrangement akin to special measures.[65] Grant Shapps, the Transport Secretary, was critical of regular Sunday cancellations given Arriva had committed to legally adhere to ensuring minimum service requirements as part of the franchise agreement.

Following this announcement, Arriva UK Trains expressed its regret and had adopted the view that 'collective system inability' had rendered the 2015 franchise agreement invalid.[20] They referenced infrastructure upgrades which were reneged upon by the Department for Transport and unworkable timetabling by Network Rail – illustrated by consistent delays on the certain routes.[20]

In November 2019, it was reported that Arriva were a target of a takeover but that the Northern franchise would not be included in such a deal.[66] In the same month, RAIL magazine cautioned against an Operator of Last Resort (OLR), arguing that problems ran far deeper than just Northern and OLR would not be a panacea – citing Network Rail implementing a timetable with little resilience against delays, the Department of Transport (DfT) not releasing funding for infrastructure upgrades and interfering local mayors.[67]

In January 2020, Shapps spoke again to criticise Arriva's operation of the Northern franchise and suggested that the Government may step in to revoke Arriva's franchise agreement, calling the service "completely unacceptable".[68]

On 29 January 2020, it was announced that Arriva would be stripped of the franchise from 1 March 2020, with the franchise to be operated by the government's operator of last resort.[69]

Responding to the early termination of the franchise, Arriva UK Trains expressed its regret at the lack of investment in infrastructure to support the increased number of services since 2016 and apologised for the service provided. They expressed sentiments that despite the challenges encountered over the four years, much of the existing rolling stock had been modernised and the addition of new rolling stock, notably in six-coach formations on the busiest Arriva Rail North routes, provided a solid platform for the Northern franchise going forward.[70]

Below is a list of off-peak services, per 30 June – 14 December 2019 timetables.[79] It has been slightly simplified due to some routes' irregular service pattern. Due to the extensive nature of the network, it has been split by geographic area. Some services are listed in more than one place. Northern Connect lines are marked with their colour next to their route.

By December 2019, Arriva Rail North planned to operate a network of twelve Northern Connect inter-urban express services – a franchise requirement. Most of these would be operated by brand-new Class 195 Civity diesel multiple units and Class 331 Civity electric multiple units, whilst the Middlesbrough to Carlisle via Newcastle route would be operated by refurbished Class 158 units. Electrification of the line between Oxenholme and Windermere was cancelled by the Government in 2017,[80] so the Manchester Airport to Windermere route would be operated initially by Class 769 Flex trains instead, with Class 195 Civity trains taking over by the end of 2019.[80]

Places that would be served by Northern Connect routes include Bradford, Chester, Halifax, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Middlesbrough, Nottingham, Newcastle, Preston, Sheffield, Barnsley, Lincoln, Wakefield, Wigan and York.

Northern Connect planned future routes and future rolling stock

Former train types operated by Arriva Rail North include:

Class	Image	Type	Top speed		Number	Carriages	Notes	Built	Withdrawn
			mph	km/h
Locomotive hauled stock
37		Loco	80	130	2	–	Replaced by Class 156 units. Returned to Direct Rail Services.	1960–1965	2018
68			100	160	2[89]			2013–2017
Mark 2		Coach			6			1972–1975
		DBSO			2			1979
Diesel multiple units
142 Pacer		DMU	75	121	63	2	Replaced by Class 150, Class 156, Class 158 and Class 170 units.	1985–1987	2019–2020
153 Super Sprinter					3	1	Replaced by Class 150, Class 156, Class 158 and Class 170 units. (3 were transferred to Abellio ScotRail in 2019-20)	1987–1988
185 Desiro			100	161	4	3	Replaced by Class 195 and Class 331 units. (Four subleased from TransPennine Express to operate Manchester to Blackpool/Cumbria services)	2005–2006	2019
Electric multiple units
319/3 & 319/4		EMU	100	161	20[nb 6]	4	Eight converted to Class 769/4, twelve units stored.	1987–1990	2018–2020