2020 in climate change

This article documents notable events, research findings, effects, and responses related to global warming and climate change during the year 2020.

See also: 2020 in the environment and environmental sciences

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Summaries
  • The December 2020 Lancet Countdown review concluded that trends in 2020 showed "a concerning paucity of progress" in numerous sectors, including "a continued failure to reduce the carbon intensity of the global energy system, an increase in the use of coal-fired power, and a rise in agricultural emissions and premature deaths from excess red meat consumption. These issues (were) in part counteracted by the growth of renewable energy and improvements in low-carbon transport."[1] Despite increasing climate suitability for infectious disease transmission and falling crop yield potential, "the global response has remained muted"[2] but "2020 will probably be an inflection point for several of the indicators (to be) presented during the coming decade".[1] The survey further noted that "the nature and extent of the economic impact and response to the COVID-19 pandemic will have a defining role in determining whether the world meets the commitments of the Paris Agreement".[3]

Measurements and statistics
"Vital Signs of the Planet" as presented by NASA on 31 December 2020[4]
  • NASA GISS reported 2020's globally averaged temperature was 1.84 °F (1.02 °C) warmer than the baseline 1951-1980 mean, slightly greater than 2016 but within the margin of error of the analysis, making 2020 effectively tie 2016 as the warmest year on record[5] despite La Niña's cooling effect.[6] Independently, Copernicus (EU) concurred with NASA's conclusion, while NOAA and the U.K. Met Office concluded 2020 was second warmest.[7]
  • High northern latitudes:
  • Siberia recorded its second warmest January-June temperatures on record—more than 5°C (9°F) above average—including up to 10°C (18°F) above average in June.[8] Verkhoyansk, located north of the arctic circle, recorded a temperature of 38°C (100°F) on 20 June.[8] An analysis showed that, without human-induced climate change, these January-June temperatures would happen less than once in every 80,000 years.[8]
  • The fire season in Sakha (Siberia) was unprecedented in the 20-year MODIS record in terms of an earlier start and northern extent, with some fires burning only about 11 km from the Chukchi Sea.[9] From March through June, burned area was greater than 2.9 times the 20-year mean.[9]
  • End-of-winter Arctic sea ice extent was the 11th lowest, and the end-of-summer extent the second lowest, in the 1979-2020 satellite record.[10]
  • April 2020 Northern Hemisphere sea ice volume was approximately 1,000 km3 below the 2010-2019 average, and October 2020 sea ice volume showed the lowest value in the preceding 10 years because of a second largest summer loss of 15.215 km3.[10]
  • The September 2020 monthly average CO
    2     concentration at Mauna Loa station was 411.29 ppm (up from 408.54 ppm in September 2019), and at Cape Grim in Tasmania, 410.8 ppm (up from 408.58 ppm in 2019).[11]
  • Antarctic ice in 2020 was close to or slightly above the 42-year mean.[6]
  • On 16 August, Death Valley reached 54.4°C (129.9°F), the highest known temperature in the world in at least the last 80 years.[6]
  • On 4 January, Penrith, New South Wales reached 48.9°C (120°F), the highest observed temperature in an Australian metropolitan area.[6]
  • In the Middle East, temperature records were set in Jerusalem (42.7°C, 108.8°F), Eilat (48.9 °C, 120°F), Kuwait Airport (52.1 °C, 125.8°F) and Baghdad (51.8°C, 125.2°F).[6]
  • Ocean heat content (OHC) in the upper 2000m (6600 ft) reached a record high in 2020 (data collected since 1958), the average annual linear rate increase since 1986 being almost eight times larger than the linear rate from 1958—1985.[12]
  • NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) reported that, through September, the U.S. experienced 16 weather and climate-related events, each costing at least a billion dollars, tying the full-year figures for 2011 and 2017, and exceeding the 1980–2019 inflation-adjusted average of 6.6 such events.[13]
  • The U.N.'s 2020 Emissions Gap Report stated that the highest-earning 1% of the global population account for more than twice the combined greenhouse gas emissions of the lowest-earning 50%.[14] To meet the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement, the 1 percent would need to reduce their current emissions by at least a factor of 30, while the per capita emissions of the poorest 50 per cent could increase by around three times their current levels.[14]

Natural events and phenomena
  • As a direct consequence of the pandemic, an 8% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions was projected for 2020, which would be the largest 1-year decline on record.[15] However, this reduction was a result of reduced economic activity, not the decarbonization of the economy required to respond to climate change.[15]
  • The Global Carbon Project estimated that global daily CO
    2     emissions may have been reduced by 17% during the most intense periods of COVID-19 shutdowns, but the WMO's Greenhouse Gas Bulletin indicated that this short-term impact cannot cause 2020's annual figure to exceed the 1 ppm natural inter-annual variability.[11]
  • By March 2020, "Black Summer" fires burnt almost 19 million hectares (46.95 million acres), destroyed over 3,000 houses, and killed 33 people and more than a billion animals, and is estimated to have had a A$20 billion impact, exceeding the record A$4.4 billion of 2009′s Black Saturday fires.[16]
  • A model-based analysis of heat and drought conditions underlying these Australian bushfires found that anthropogenic climate change had caused the probability of extreme heat to increase by at least a factor of two, and the risk of a Fire Weather Index being "severe" or worse to increase by at least 30%.[17]
  • Smoke in the stratosphere from the Australian bushfires induced planetary-scale blocking of solar radiation larger than any previously documented wildfires, with the same order of radiative forcing as produced by moderate volcanic eruptions.[18]

Actions and goal statements

Science and technology
  • In October, MOSAiC, the largest-ever ($177 million) Arctic science expedition, completed a nearly 13-month mission, the research vessel Polarstern having been purposely locked in an Arctic ice floe and collecting more than 150 terabytes of data and 1,000 ice samples.[24]
  • The Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR) superconducting fusion device maintained a core condition in eventually generating fusion power, maintaining plasma at an ion temperature exceeding 100 million °C. (180 million °F) for a record 20 seconds.[25]

Political, economic, cultural actions
  • In February, 17-year-old Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for a second time, having also received a nomination the preceding year.[26]
  • By April, the COVID-19 pandemic had forced postponement of the COP26 climate change conference from November 2020 to the following year.[27]
  • In April, Austria and Sweden closed their last coal-fired power plants.[28]
  • In May, the Energy Information Administration announced that U.S. annual energy consumption from renewable sources exceeded coal consumption for the first time since before 1885.[29]
  • In the first half of 2020, the EU generated 40% of its electricity from renewables, and 34% from fossil fuels.[30]
  • On 14 October, a strategic alliance in Peru announced a climate commitment to make Machu Picchu the first of the New Seven Wonders of the World and the first international tourism destination to obtain carbon neutral certification.[31]
  • After October's Hurricane Delta struck Puerto Morelos, Mexico, an insurance company issued a payout (17 million pesos, or US$850,000) on a policy covering a coral reef, the policy taken out to cover damages from hurricanes whose severity was expected to increase due to climate change.[32]
  • 4 November 2020 marked the completion of the process by which U.S. President Trump withdrew the country from the Paris climate agreement, the U.S. becoming the only country in the world to do so.[33] President-elect Joe Biden vowed to recommit to the Paris accord on the first day of his presidency.[33]
  • On 27 November, Tasmanian minister for energy Guy Barnett announced that the Australian island state had achieved 100% self-sufficiency in renewable energy.[34]
In 2020, renewables overtook fossil fuels as the European Union's main source of electricity for the first time.[35]
  • On 3 December, the Danish government voted to immediately end new oil and gas exploration in the Danish North Sea as part of a plan to phase out fossil fuel extraction by 2050, guaranteeing an end to Denmark’s fossil fuel production.[36] Denmark's vote followed similar actions by France (2017) and New Zealand (2018).[36]
  • 12 December 2020 was the fifth anniversary of the 2015 Paris Agreement; countries review and update their national commitments every 5 years.[37]
  • In December, the Net Zero Asset Managers initiative—involving 30 fund management companies managing $9 trillion—pledged investment portfolios to be carbon-neutral by 2050.[38]
  • 2020 was the first year in which renewables overtook fossil fuels as the European Union's main source of electricity.[35]
  • Corporate declarations to partially or totally divest from fossil fuel companies were made by New York state pension fund ($226 billion), Sweden’s pension fund AP2 ($43 billion), all six major U.S. banks (re Arctic drilling), Cambridge University's endowment ($4.5 billion), twelve large cities (totaling $295 billion), the U.K. National Employment Savings Trust (pension fund), Minnesota's pension fund ($4 billion), University of California ($126 billion), Cornell University endowment ($9.6 billion), Oxford University endowment ($3.7 billion), Denmark’s ATP pension fund ($133 billion), and BlackRock.[39]

Mitigation goal statements
See also: Climate emergency declaration and Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
  • In January, the U.K.'s National Health Service announced its commitment to become the world’s first net zero health system.[40]
  • In September, the government of China said it would achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2060.[41]
  • On 28 October, South Korea president Moon Jae-in declared that the country—with only 6% of its electricity generated by renewables-would go carbon neutral by 2050, following similar declarations in Japan (earlier in the week) and the European Union (2019).[42]
  • Before the November 2020 U.S. presidential election, Joe Biden called climate change an existential threat to health, the economy and national security, proposing to make the U.S. carbon neutral by 2050; incumbent Donald Trump continued to question climate science, actually promoting fossil fuels.[43]
  • A 2 December United Nations report stated that at least 113 nations had pledged carbon neutrality by 2050, and that by early 2021, countries representing more than 65% of global CO
    2     emissions and more than 70% of the world economy, will have made ambitious commitments to carbon neutrality; and that 186 parties to the Paris Agreement had already developed NDCs.[44]
  • On 4 December, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a target to reduce the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions by 68% (previously 53%) by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, the government announcement saying the target "commits the UK to cutting emissions at the fastest rate of any major economy so far".[45]
  • On 11 December, EU leaders agreed to reduce greenhouse gases by 55% by 2030 (measured against 1990 CO
    2     emission levels); the European Parliament had called for a 60% cut, and Greenpeace and Global 2000, 65%.[30]
  • On 12 December, UN secretary general António Guterres told world leaders at the Climate Ambition Summit that they should all declare a state of climate emergency until the world reaches net-zero CO
    2     emissions (only about 38 had already made such declarations).[46] Guterres noted that G20 countries were spending 50% more in their COVID-19 stimulus packages on fossil fuels and CO
    2    -intensive sectors than they were on low-CO
    2     energy.[46]
  • At the 12 December Climate Ambition Summit, China’s leader Xi Jinping said that by 2030, China would reduce its carbon intensity by over 65 percent.[41]

Adaptation goal statements
  • At least 51 countries had developed plans for national health system adaptation planning.[37] However, only 9% of countries reported having the funds to fully implement their plans.[47]

Projections
  • In January, the World Economic Forum listed top 10 risks over the next 10 years by likelihood (extreme weather as #1, climate action failure as #2, human-made environmental disasters as #5) and by impact (climate action failure as #1, extreme weather as #4, human-made environmental disasters as #9).[48]
  • A review conducted under the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) projected climate sensitivity—the range of global warming to be expected from a doubling of CO
    2     concentration—to be 2.6—3.9°C (4.7—7.0°F), narrower than longstanding (1979+) estimates of about 1.5—4.5°C (2.7—8.1°F).[49]
  • In 2020, it was projected that to reach the Paris Climate Accord's 1.5°C target, the 56 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) emitted in 2020 would need to drop to 25 GtCO2e by 2030, requiring a 7.6% reduction every year—an increase in national government ambition of a factor of five.[37]
  • The U.N.'s Emissions Gap[Note 1] Report 2020 stated that, by 2030, annual emissions would need to be 15(range: 12–19) GtCO2e lower than current unconditional NDCs imply for a 2°C goal, and 32(range: 29–36) GtCO2e lower for the 1.5°C goal.[50] Current NDCs were said to "remain seriously inadequate to achieve the climate goals of the Paris Agreement and would lead to a temperature increase of at least 3°C by the end of the century".[51]

Significant publications
  • UNEP, UNEP DTU Partnership, World Adaptation Science Programme (WASP) (January 2021). "Adaptation Gap Report 2020". UNEP.org. United Nations Environment Programme. Archived from the original on 11 January 2021.CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) (has link to PDF download)
  • UNEP, UNEP DTU Partnership (9 December 2020). "Emissions Gap Report 2020". UNEP.org. United Nations Environment Programme. Archived from the original on 9 December 2020. Yearly review of the difference between where greenhouse emissions are predicted to be in 2030 and where they should be to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
  • Watts, Nick; Amann, Markus; Arnell, Nigel; Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja; et al. (2 December 2020). "The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises". The Lancet. 397 (10269): 129–170. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32290-X. PMID 33278353. S2CID 227250862.
  • "Arctic Report Card: Update for 2020 / The sustained transformation to a warmer, less frozen and biologically changed Arctic remains clear" (PDF). arctic.NOAA.gov. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). December 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on 8 December 2020. The "Report Card" includes:

See also

Notes
  1. The U.N. Emission Gap Report 2020 defines emissions gap for 2030 as "the difference between global total GHG emissions from least-cost scenarios that keep global warming to 2°C, 1.8°C or 1.5°C with varying levels of likelihood and the estimated global total GHG emissions resulting from a full implementation of the NDCs".

References
  1. Watts et al. 2020, p. 26 of PDF ("Conclusion").
  2. Watts et al. 2020, p. 36 of PDF ("Conclusion: the 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown").
  3. Watts et al. 2020, p. 31 of PDF ("Conclusion").
  4. "Global Climate Change / Vital Signs of the Planet". climate.NASA.gov. NASA. 31 December 2020. Archived from the original on 31 December 2020.
  5. "2020 Tied for Warmest Year on Record, NASA Analysis Shows". GISS.NASA.gov. Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA). 14 January 2021. Archived from the original on 14 January 2021. NOAA scientists use much of the same raw temperature data (as NASA) in their analysis, but have a different baseline period (1901-2000) and methodology. . (details). . The GISS temperature analysis (GISTEMP) is accurate to within 0.1 degrees Fahrenheit with a 95 percent confidence level for the most recent period.
  6. "2020 on track to be one of three warmest years on record". WMO.int. World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 2 December 2020. Archived from the original on 6 December 2020.
  7. "2020 was Earth's 2nd-hottest year, just behind 2016". NOAA.gov. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. 14 January 2021. Archived from the original on 14 January 2021.
  8. "Prolonged Siberian heat "almost impossible without climate change"". WMO.int. World Meteorological Office (WMO). 16 July 2020. Archived from the original on 1 December 2020.
  9. York et al. 2020, Wildland Fire....
  10. Perovich et al. 2020.
  11. "Carbon dioxide levels continue at record levels, despite COVID-19 lockdown". WMO.int. World Meteorological Organization. 23 November 2020. Archived from the original on 1 December 2020.
  12. Cheng, L.; Abraham, J.; Trenberth, K.E.; Fasullo, J.; et al. (13 January 2021). "Upper Ocean Temperatures Hit Record High in 2020". Adv. Atmos. Sci. doi:10.1007/s00376-021-0447-x. S2CID 231672261.
  13. Smith, Adam B.; NOAA National Centers For Environmental Information (December 2020). "Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: Overview / 2020 in Progress". NCDC.NOAA. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCDC, part of NOAA). doi:10.25921/stkw-7w73. Archived from the original on 10 December 2020. Retrieved 11 December 2020. (NOAA/NCEI graph)
  14. UNEP, UNEP DTU Partnership 2020, Exec. Summ. § 14.
  15. Watts et al. 2020, p. 4 of PDF (Panel 1).
  16. Filkov, Alexander I.; Ngo, Tuan; Matthews, Stuart; Telfer, Simeon; Penman, Trent D. (September 2020). "Impact of Australia's catastrophic 2019/20 bushfire season on communities and environment. Retrospective analysis and current trends". Journal of Safety Science and Resilience. 1 (1): 44–56. doi:10.1016/j.jnlssr.2020.06.009.
  17. van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Krikken, F.; Lewis, S.; Leach, N. J.; Lehner, F.; Saunders, K. R.; van Weele, M.; Haustein, K.; Li, S.; Wallom, D.; Sparrow, S.; Arrighi, J; Singh, R. P.; van Aalst, M. K.; Philip, S. Y.; Vautard, R.; Otto, F. E. L. (11 March 2020). "Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change". Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. (in review, 2020). doi:10.5194/nhess-2020-69. (PDF)      ● Summarized by same authors in "Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change". WorldWeatherAttribution.org. World Weather Attribution (WWA). 10 January 2020. Archived from the original on 15 November 2020.
  18. Khaykin, S.; Legras, B.; Bucci, S.; Sellitto, P.; Isaksen, L.; Tencé, F.; Bekki, S.; Bourassa, A.; Rieger, L.; Zawada, D.; Jumelet, J.; Godin-Beekmann, S. (21 September 2020). "The 2019/20 Australian wildfires generated a persistent smoke-charged vortex rising up to 35 km altitude". Commun Earth Environ. 1 (22): 22. arXiv:2006.07284. Bibcode:2020ComEE...1...22K. doi:10.1038/s43247-020-00022-5.
  19. Xu, Rongbin; Yu, Pei; Abramson, Michael J.; Johnston, Fay H.; Samet, Jonathan M.; Bell, Michelle L.; Haines, Andy; Ebi, Kristie L; Li, Shanshan; Guo, Yuming (26 November 2020). "Wildfires, Global Climate Change, and Human Health". The New England Journal of Medicine. 383 (22): 2173–2181. doi:10.1056/NEJMsr2028985. PMID 33034960. ● Climate change causes summers to be hotter and drier to cause vegetation to become more flammable, causes stronger winds that both provide more oxygen and spread wildfires, increases lightning strikes as an ignition source, and broadens the duration of warm seasons in which wildfires can occur.
  20. "Record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season draws to an end". NOAA.gov. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 24 November 2020. Archived from the original on 1 December 2020. ● 2020 was the fifth consecutive year with an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with 18 above-normal seasons out of the preceding 26.
  21. Gibbens, Sarah (10 November 2020). "Did climate change drive 2020's epic hurricane season? It's complicated". National Geographic. Archived from the original on 20 November 2020. ● Increasing sea temperatures—which cause both increased rainfall and rapid storm intensification—are attributed to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, indirect effects La Niña in the Pacific, and long-term effects of climate change.
  22. Garrison, Cassandra (18 December 2020). "Massive iceberg pivots, breaks near south Atlantic penguin colony island". Reuters. Archived from the original on 18 December 2020.
  23. McKie, Robin (31 January 2021). "Extraordinary voyage: on the trail of the trillion-tonne runaway iceberg". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 31 January 2021.
  24. Fox, Alex (15 October 2020). "Largest Arctic Expedition Ever Comes to a Close / The German Research Vessel Polarstern came back into port after more than a year floating amid the diminishing Arctic sea ice". Smithsonian. Archived from the original on 6 November 2020.
  25. National Research Council of Science & Technology (24 December 2020). "Korean artificial sun sets the new world record of 20-sec-long operation at 100 million degrees". phys.org. Archived from the original on 24 December 2020.
  26. Solsvik, Terje (26 February 2020). "Climate activist Thunberg heads growing field of Nobel Peace Prize candidates". Reuters. Archived from the original on 10 November 2020.
  27. Dennis, Brady; Mooney, Chris (1 April 2020). "Amid pandemic, U.N. cancels global climate conference". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on 2 April 2020.
  28. Watts et al. 2020, p. 21 of PDF.
  29. "U.S. renewable energy consumption surpasses coal for the first time in over 130 years". EIA.gov. U.S. Energy Information Administration. 28 May 2020. Archived from the original on 28 November 2020.
  30. "Climate change: EU leaders set 55% target for CO2 emissions cut". BBC News. BBC. 11 December 2020. Archived from the original on 12 December 2020.
  31. "Machu Picchu: The First Carbon Neutral Wonder of the World". United Nations World Tourism Organization. 2020. Archived from the original on 16 January 2021.
  32. Einhorn, Catrin; Flavelle, Christopher (5 December 2020). "A Race Against Time to Rescue a Reef From Climate Change". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 6 December 2020.
  33. Arvin, Jariel (6 November 2020). "Europe's leaders on climate change are the first to congratulate President-elect Joe Biden". Vox. Archived from the original on 29 November 2020.
  34. Barnett, Guy (27 November 2020). "Tasmania surges to 100% renewable energy". tas.gov.au. Government of Tasmania. Archived from the original on 27 November 2020.
  35. "The European Power Sector in 2020 / Up-to-Date Analysis on the Electricity Transition" (PDF). ember-climate.org. Ember and Agora Energiewende. 25 January 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on 25 January 2021.
  36. Ambrose, Jillian (4 December 2020). "Denmark to end new oil and gas exploration in North Sea". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 7 December 2020.
  37. Watts et al. 2020, p. 2 of PDF.
  38. Quinson, Tim (16 December 2020). "Money Managers Pledge to Hit Net Zero. Now the Hard Part". Bloomberg.
  39. Atkin, Emily (11 January 2021). "One of Trump's most significant failures is a massive win for the climate movement". MSNBC. Archived from the original on 14 January 2021.
  40. Watts et al. 2020, p. 26 of PDF (Panel 4).
  41. Sengupta, Somini (12 December 2020). "China, in Nudge to U.S., Makes a New Promise to Tackle Global Warming". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 12 December 2020.
  42. McCurry, Justin (28 October 2020). "South Korea vows to go carbon neutral by 2050 to fight climate emergency". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 28 October 2020.
  43. Brady, Jeff (22 October 2020). "There's A Lot At Stake For The Climate In The 2020 Election". NPR.org. NPR. Archived from the original on 2 December 2020.
  44. "The race to zero emissions, and why the world depends on it". news.UN.org. United Nations. 2 December 2020. Archived from the original on 3 January 2021.
  45. "UK sets ambitious new climate target ahead of UN Summit". gov.uk. Government of the United Kingdom. 3 December 2020. Archived from the original on 15 December 2020.
  46. Harvey, Fiona (12 December 2020). "UN secretary general urges all countries to declare climate emergencies". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 12 December 2020.
  47. Watts et al. 2020, p. 16 of PDF.
  48. Edmond 2020.
  49. Sherwood, S. C.; Webb, M. J.; Annan, J. D.; Armour, K. C.; et al. (22 July 2020). "An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence". Reviews of Geophysics. 58 (4): e2019RG000678. doi:10.1029/2019RG000678. PMC 7524012. PMID 33015673. A Bayesian calculation finds a 66% range of 2.6–3.9 K, which remains within the bounds 2.3–4.5 K under plausible robustness tests.
  50. UNEP, UNEP DTU Partnership 2020, Exec. Summ. § 6.
  51. UNEP, UNEP DTU Partnership 2020, Exec. Summ. § 7.

Organizations

Surveys, summaries, and report lists
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