Effects of climate change on South Asia

The global average sea level rose by 3.1 mm per year from 1993 to 2003.[5] More recent analysis of a number of semi empirical models predict a sea level rise of about 1 metre by the year 2100. [7] Ongoing sea level rises have already submerged several low-lying islands in the Sundarbans, displacing thousands of people.[8] Temperature rises on the Tibetan Plateau are causing Himalayan glaciers to retreat. It has been predicted that the historical city of Thatta and Badin, in Sindh, Pakistan would have been swallowed by the sea by 2025, as the sea is already encroaching 80 acres of land here, every day. [9]

In October 2019, a study was published in the Nature Communications journal. The journal claims that the number of people who will be impacted from sea level rise during 21st century is 3 times higher than the previous expected number. By the year 2050, 150 million will be under the water line during high tide and 300 million will live in zones with flooding every year. By the year 2100, those numbers differ sharply depending on the emission scenario. In a low emission scenario, 140 million will be under water during high tide and 280 million will have flooding each year. In high emission scenario, the numbers reach up to 540 million and 640 million, respectively. 70% of these people will live in 8 countries in Asia: China, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, and the Philippines. Large parts of Ho Chi Minh City, Mumbai, Shanghai, Bangkok and Basra could be inundated.[10][11]

Population that will live in a zone of annual flooding by the year 2050 in millions, in 6 countries in Asia, according to old and new estimates:[12]

Increased landslides and flooding are projected to have an impact upon states such as Assam.[13] Ecological disasters, such as a 1998 coral bleaching event that killed off more than 70% of corals in the reef ecosystems off Lakshadweep and the Andamans, and was brought on by elevated ocean temperatures tied to global warming, are also projected to become increasingly common.[14][15][16]

Bangladesh is the first country among the countries to be affected by severe climate change. Its sea level, temperature and evaporation are increasing, and the changes in precipitation and cross boundary river flows are already beginning to cause drainage congestion. There is a reduction in fresh water availability, disturbance of morphologic processes and a higher intensity of flooding and other such disasters. Bangladesh only contributes 0.1% of the world's emissions yet it has 2.4% of the world's population. In contrast, the United States makes up about 5 percent of the world's population, yet they produce approximately 25 percent of the pollution that causes global warming.[17]

Heat waves' frequency and power are increasing in India because of climate change. In 2019, the temperature reached 50.6 degrees Celsius, 36 people were killed. 15 monkeys died from heat stroke after another group of monkeys prevented them from accessing the closest water source. The high temperatures are expected to impact 23 states in 2019, up from nine in 2015 and 19 in 2018. The number of heat wave days has increased — not just day temperature, night temperatures increased also. 2018 was the country's sixth hottest year on record, and 11 of its 15 warmest years have occurred since 2004. The capital of New Delhi broke its all-time record with a high of 48 degrees Celsius.[18]

"Science as well as our subjective experiences has made it unequivocally clear that longer, hotter and deadlier summers are poised to become the norm due to climate change," environmental researcher Hem Dholakia wrote"

Today, because of global warming, the world is one degree Celsius warmer than it was before the industrial revolution. According to author Wallace-Wells, if the temperature rises even one more degree, “Cities now home to millions, across India and the Middle East, would become so hot that stepping outside in summer would be a lethal risk.” In India, exposure to heat waves is said to increase by 8 times between 2021 and 2050, and by 300% by the end of this century. (See article: “Heat wave exposure in India in current, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C worlds,” in the journal Environmental Research Letters). The number of Indians exposed to heat waves increased by 200% from 2010 to 2016. Heat waves also affect farm labour productivity. The heat waves affect central and northwestern India the most, and the eastern coast and Telangana have also been affected. In 2015, the latter places witnessed at least 2500 deaths. For the first time in history, Kerala reported a heat wave in 2016. The government is being advised by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in predicting and mitigating heat waves. The government of Andhra Pradesh, for instance, is creating a Heat Wave Action Plan.[19]

The heat wave has closed schools and universities.

Overall, however, the death toll from India's heat waves has decreased in the last four years. More than 2,000 people died in 2015, 375 in 2017 and 20 in 2018. "Officials say this is because the government has made an effort to reduce the death toll by encouraging residents to reduce or alter the time spent working on hot days and by providing free drinking water to hard-hit populations". It also used water to cool streets and forced police to guard water tankers in Madhya Pradesh state after fights over supply turned deadly. Those measures cost a lot of money and water, and the government's resources was limited this year by the country's national election. The heat wave may continue, as monsoon rains have been delayed this year.[20]

India has the world's highest social cost of carbon.[21] The Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research has reported that, if the predictions relating to global warming made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change come to fruition, climate-related factors could cause India's GDP to decline by up to 9%; contributing to this would be shifting growing seasons for major crops such as rice, production of which could fall by 40%. Around seven million people are projected to be displaced due to, among other factors, submersion of parts of Mumbai and Chennai, if global temperatures were to rise by a mere 2 °C (3.6 °F).[22]

Villagers in India's North Eastern state of Meghalaya are also concerned that rising sea levels will submerge neighboring low-lying Bangladesh, resulting in an influx of refugees into Meghalaya which has few resources to handle such a situation.[23][24]

If severe climate changes occur, Bangladesh will lose land along the coast line.[25] This will be highly damaging to Bangladeshis especially because about 50% population of Bangladeshis are employed in the agriculture sector,[26] with rice as the largest production.[27][28] If no further steps are taken to improve the current conditions global warming will affect the economy severely worsening the present issues further.[29] The climate change would increase expenditure towards health care, cool drinks, alcoholic beverages, air conditioners, ice cream, cosmetics, agricultural chemicals, and other products.[30]

Furthermore, the reliance on exportation of goods for economic stability causes cascading effects contributing to climate change by the changes to land modifications to keep up with global demands. This is especially true in China. Environmental factor#Socioeconomic Drivers

Climate Change in India and Pakistan will have a disproportionate impact on the more than 400 million that make up India's poor. This is because so many depend on natural resources for their food, shelter and income. More than 56% of people in India work in agriculture, while in Pakistan 43℅ of its population work in agriculture while many others earn their living in coastal areas.[31]

Thick haze and smoke along the Ganges River in northern India.

Nepal is one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change; in the 2020 edition of Germanwatch's Climate Risk Index, it was judged to be the ninth hardest-hit nation by climate calamities during the period 1999 to 2018.[57] Nepal is a least developed country, with 28.6 percent of the population living in multidimensional poverty.[58] Analysis of trends from 1971 to 2014 by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) shows that the average annual maximum temperature has been increasing by 0.056 °C per year.[59] Precipitation extremes are found to be increasing.[60] A national-level survey on the perception-based survey on climate change reported that locals accurately perceived the shifts in temperature but their perceptions of precipitation change did not converge with the instrumental records.[61] Data reveals that more than 80 percent of property loss due to disasters is attributable to climate hazards, particularly water-related events such as floods, landslides and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).[62] The floods of 2018 spread across the foothills of the Himalayas and brought landslides have left tens of thousands of houses and vast areas of farmland and roads destroyed.[63] Nepal experienced flash floods and landslides in August, 2018 across the southern border, amounting to US$600 million in damages.[64] There are reports of land once used for growing vegetables has become barren, Yak herders struggles to find grazing patches for their animals. Scientists have found that rising temperatures could spread malaria and dengue to new areas of the Himalayas, where mosquitoes have started to appear in the highlands.[65]

In Nepal, women are also responsible for the traditional daily household chores including food production, household water supply and energy for heating. However, these tasks are likely to become more time-consuming and difficult, as the impacts of climate change increase, if women have to travel farther to collect items. This proves to be an additional stressor for women, increasing their risk to health hazards and illnesses, and in turn increasing their vulnerability to climate change.[66]