2004 United States presidential election in Missouri

The 2004 United States presidential election in Missouri took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2004 United States presidential election in Missouri

November 2, 2004
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,455,713 1,259,171
Percentage 53.30% 46.10%

County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

Missouri was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 7.20% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 10 of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. He also won a wide majority of the counties and congressional districts in the state. Despite the fact that the state has voted for the eventual winner of the election in a presidential election since 1912, with the exception of the 1956 election, Bush carried this state with a larger margin of victory than his nationwide results, indicating that the state is more conservative than the rest of the country and that it is trending Republican. These factors eventually led the state to lose its bellwether status in the next election.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Republican
  2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
  5. Newsweek: Leans Bush
  6. New York Times: Leans Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Toss-up
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Battleground
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

From May 2004, Bush won every single poll from the state. The final 3 polls taken from the state averaged Bush leading with 51% to 45%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,026,802.[3] Kerry raised $1,418,159.[4]

Advertising and visits

This state was considered a major swing state. Both the Republican ticket and Democratic ticket visited the state 7 times in the general election. Kerry focused mostly on the urban areas such as St. Louis and Kansas City, while Bush focused more on rural such as Warrenton and Sedalia.[5]

Analysis

This was a better result for President Bush than 2000, when he carried the state by only 3%. In 2004, he received 265,789 more votes than in 2000, while Kerry won only 148,033 more votes than Gore in 2000. Bush won by a 7% margin. Kerry won just 4 counties in the state: Jackson County, Ste. Genevieve, St. Louis County, and St. Louis City. As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which Boone County voted for the Republican candidate.

Results

United States presidential election in Missouri, 2004[6]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Party George W. Bush 1,455,713 53.30% 11
Democratic Party John Kerry 1,259,171 46.10% 0
Libertarian Party Michael Badnarik 9,831 0.36% 0
Constitution Party Michael Peroutka 5,355 0.20% 0
Write In Ralph Nader 1,294 0.05% 0
Totals 2,731,364 100.00% 11
Voter turnout (Voting Age population)[7][8] 63.6%

Results breakdown

By county

County Kerry% Kerry# Bush% Bush# Others% Others# Total
Adair43.3%4,93855.8%6,3670.9%9911,404
Andrew37.1%3,06962.1%5,1350.8%628,266
Atchison31.8%1,00567.7%2,1370.4%143,156
Audrain40.4%4,31858.9%6,2940.7%7110,683
Barry30.3%4,22368.9%9,5990.8%10513,927
Barton22.9%1,37376.3%4,5720.8%465,991
Bates40.1%3,39859.1%5,0040.8%648,466
Benton37.5%3,38161.9%5,5750.6%539,009
Bollinger29.8%1,75469.6%4,1020.7%395,895
Boone49.5%37,64349.7%37,8010.8%60276,046
Buchanan46.9%17,79952.2%19,8120.9%33937,950
Butler28.4%4,66671.1%11,6960.5%7916,441
Caldwell38.5%1,64560.8%2,5930.7%304,268
Callaway36.9%6,55962.5%11,1080.6%10617,773
Camden32.3%6,29667.2%13,1220.5%10119,519
Cape Girardeau30.6%10,56868.9%23,8140.5%18334,565
Carroll33.1%1,56866.5%3,1550.4%184,741
Carter34.7%96464.7%1,7970.6%182,779
Cass37.7%16,68161.6%27,2530.6%28344,217
Cedar30.8%1,91068.3%4,2380.9%556,203
Chariton43.6%1,89255.8%2,4210.6%274,340
Christian28.9%9,05970.5%22,1020.6%18731,348
Clark48.0%1,79450.8%1,8991.2%433,736
Clay46.3%44,67053.1%51,1930.6%59796,460
Clinton43.7%4,16555.4%5,2870.9%889,540
Cole32.0%11,75367.4%24,7520.5%19636,701
Cooper32.0%2,40067.4%5,0580.7%507,508
Crawford38.7%3,63260.6%5,6860.7%639,381
Dade27.0%1,10472.5%2,9630.5%224,089
Dallas33.2%2,40766.0%4,7880.9%647,259
Daviess37.0%1,40262.0%2,3511.1%413,794
DeKalb36.4%1,70762.8%2,9410.8%384,686
Dent29.6%1,86569.3%4,3691.1%706,304
Douglas27.5%1,74171.1%4,4981.4%886,327
Dunklin42.0%4,90157.5%6,7200.5%5611,677
Franklin40.9%18,55658.3%26,4290.7%33345,318
Gasconade32.8%2,35566.3%4,7530.9%637,171
Gentry36.3%1,20163.0%2,0850.8%263,312
Greene37.2%46,65762.2%77,8850.6%724125,266
Grundy32.5%1,56166.0%3,1721.6%754,808
Harrison31.6%1,27967.4%2,7291.0%404,048
Henry41.0%4,46158.5%6,3610.5%5510,877
Hickory42.0%2,04357.4%2,7910.7%324,866
Holt30.1%81169.3%1,8640.6%162,691
Howard40.1%1,97259.2%2,9150.7%344,921
Howell31.2%5,11867.8%11,0971.0%16416,379
Iron46.1%2,15752.9%2,4771.0%454,679
Jackson58.1%183,65441.3%130,5000.6%1,839315,993
Jasper28.8%13,00270.6%31,8460.5%23745,085
Jefferson49.4%46,05750.0%46,6240.6%58393,264
Johnson38.5%7,79060.6%12,2570.9%18920,236
Knox38.5%76161.0%1,2070.5%101,978
Laclede28.3%4,21371.1%10,5780.5%7814,869
Lafayette39.6%6,41259.7%9,6560.7%11416,182
Lawrence28.5%4,50670.8%11,1940.7%10615,806
Lewis37.8%1,75461.6%2,8620.6%284,644
Lincoln42.2%8,36857.0%11,3160.8%15519,839
Linn41.4%2,44058.0%3,4220.6%365,898
Livingston35.9%2,27863.5%4,0290.6%396,346
McDonald28.7%2,21570.5%5,4430.9%677,725
Macon37.7%2,85661.7%4,6730.5%417,570
Madison40.1%1,97259.1%2,9050.8%414,918
Maries35.3%1,56363.9%2,8250.8%364,424
Marion36.7%4,56862.8%7,8150.6%7012,453
Mercer32.0%58266.4%1,2071.5%281,817
Miller27.3%2,95972.0%7,7970.7%7510,831
Mississippi44.8%2,37454.8%2,9030.4%215,298
Moniteau28.6%1,91370.9%4,7430.5%356,691
Monroe38.2%1,64761.1%2,6320.7%284,307
Montgomery37.3%2,14761.9%3,5630.9%505,760
Morgan34.8%3,05364.5%5,6570.7%618,771
New Madrid47.0%3,71652.5%4,1540.5%377,907
Newton27.5%6,56471.9%17,1870.6%13823,889
Nodaway37.8%3,83061.5%6,2260.6%6310,119
Oregon39.0%1,82359.3%2,7691.7%814,673
Osage25.1%1,67374.6%4,9750.3%236,671
Ozark33.2%1,56165.5%3,0831.3%634,707
Pemiscot49.7%3,38149.9%3,3980.4%276,806
Perry31.8%2,62167.7%5,5830.5%438,247
Pettis33.2%5,80166.3%11,6030.5%9217,496
Phelps35.6%6,66663.5%11,8740.9%16018,700
Pike45.6%3,67053.7%4,3140.7%568,040
Platte43.9%18,41255.5%23,3020.6%25641,970
Polk30.3%3,77568.9%8,5860.7%9212,453
Pulaski29.1%3,55170.5%8,6180.4%5212,221
Putnam31.6%77267.9%1,6600.5%132,445
Ralls40.3%2,03159.3%2,9860.3%175,034
Randolph35.2%3,58664.2%6,5510.6%6110,198
Ray46.7%5,03452.6%5,6730.8%8110,788
Reynolds43.1%1,44956.4%1,8960.6%193,364
Ripley33.7%1,90765.3%3,6930.9%535,653
St. Charles40.9%66,85558.6%95,8260.5%807163,488
St. Clair37.1%1,84162.4%3,0980.5%264,965
Ste. Genevieve52.6%4,28146.5%3,7910.9%748,146
St. Francois46.9%10,74852.7%12,0870.4%9822,933
St. Louis City80.3%116,13319.2%27,7930.5%712144,638
St. Louis County54.4%295,28445.1%244,9690.5%2,730542,983
Saline45.1%4,47954.2%5,3890.7%719,939
Schuyler44.0%89455.3%1,1240.6%132,031
Scotland37.7%82861.5%1,3520.8%172,197
Scott34.7%6,05764.9%11,3300.3%6117,448
Shannon38.8%1,61860.3%2,5110.9%384,167
Shelby34.3%1,20165.1%2,2800.6%213,502
Stoddard29.8%3,94669.7%9,2420.5%6413,252
Stone30.1%4,57869.4%10,5340.5%7715,189
Sullivan38.1%1,17860.9%1,8801.0%313,089
Taney29.1%5,60170.4%13,5780.5%10119,280
Texas33.3%3,66465.7%7,2341.1%12011,018
Vernon35.7%3,20663.7%5,7320.6%548,992
Warren40.7%5,46158.7%7,8830.7%8813,432
Washington48.6%4,45950.6%4,6410.8%789,178
Wayne36.3%2,25063.2%3,9190.6%356,204
Webster31.2%4,65768.2%10,1940.6%9314,944
Worth38.5%43661.0%6910.4%51,132
Wright26.2%2,18873.0%6,0900.8%688,346

By congressional district

Bush won 6 of 9 congressional districts.[9]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 25% 75% William Lacy Clay, Jr.
2nd 60% 40% Todd Akin
3rd 43% 57% Dick Gephardt
Russ Carnahan
4th 64% 35% Ike Skelton
5th 40% 59% Karen McCarthy
Emanuel Cleaver
6th 57% 42% Sam Graves
7th 67% 32% Roy Blunt
8th 64% 36% Jo Ann Emerson
9th 59% 41% Kenny Hulshof

Electors

Technically the voters of Missouri cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Missouri is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged for Bush/Cheney.[10]

  1. Rosemary Kochner
  2. Fred Dyer
  3. Miriam Stonebraker
  4. Carolyn McDowell
  5. Cathy Owens
  6. Steve Krueger
  7. Emory Melton
  8. John Schudy
  9. Richard Hardy
  10. John Marschalk
  11. Warren Erdman

References

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